Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: December Conviction Calls Market consolidation slowed in November as expectations of a 25bp Fed cut buoyed sentiment. The HSI and MSCI China fell 0.2% and 2.4% mom respectively amid weak data and limited catalysts. While the upcoming Economic Work Conference may offer a catalyst to end this phase, we remain cautious, preferring defensives and oversold names. We add BeOne Medicines, HKEX, NetEase and Plover Bay to BUY, take profit on AIA, and cut losses on Ja...
Company Update | The Erawan Group (ERW TB/HOLD/Bt2.28/Target: Bt2.30) ERW delivered a weak 3Q25 performance as expected and signalled a challenging outlook ahead. Management’s guidance for 4Q25 shows flat occupancy yoy, but ADR and RevPar could fall 7% yoy due to soft demand and limited pricing power, with luxury-economy hotels being hit hardest. Growth expectations for 2025 were revised down further as Chinese tourist recovery remains slow. The loan restructuring will add prepayment expenses to...
Top Stories Company Results | Central Pattana (CPN TB/BUY/Bt50.25/Target: Bt73.10) CPN reported a net profit of Bt5.4b in 3Q25 (+31.5% yoy, +26% qoq), supported by one-off items. Core earnings were strong as expected, improving both yoy and qoq. We anticipate the resilient core operational performance continuing into 4Q25. We are optimistic about CPN, given its resilient performance and positive business outlook with expansion plans. Maintain BUY. Target price: Bt73.10. Company Update | Char...
Greater China Economics | Economic Activity Industrial production growth slowed sharply to 4.9% yoy in Oct 25 (-1.6ppt mom). FAI also stayed weak, falling 1.7% yoy ytd (-1.2ppt mom), dragged by property FAI which dropped 14.5% yoy ytd. Retail sales growth edged lower to 2.9% yoy (-0.1ppt yoy). On a positive note, unemployment improved to 5.1%. Overall, the data points to a weakening growth momentum. Indonesia Company Results | XLSMART Telecom Sejahtera (EXCL IJ/BUY/Rp2,720/Target: Rp3,10...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: November Conviction Calls HSI and MSCI China fell 3.5%/4.0% mom in October, dragged by renewed US-China trade tensions and lack of fresh policy signals from the 4th Plenum. We remain constructive in the medium term but expect further consolidation as uncertainties persist. The best performer among our picks was SELL-rated Li Auto (+21.4% mom). For November, we rotate into oversold names with near-term upside: add AIA, LINK REIT, NAURA, Pinduoduo, PICC P&C an...
Company Update | The Erawan Group (ERW TB/HOLD/Bt2.54/Target: Bt2.70) ERW’s 3Q25 performance is expected to be weak due to continued pressure on room rates amid sluggish Chinese tourist arrivals (-34% yoy), prompting hotels to compete on price to maintain occupancy. RevPar in 3Q25 is projected to fall 10% yoy, leading to a net profit of Bt53m (-57.6% yoy). Despite this, Hop Inn remains a key driver with steady growth. The Grand Hyatt renovation was postponed to 2Q26, easing near-term earnings ...
Top Stories Company Results | Bangkok Bank (BBL TB/HOLD/Bt155.50/Target: Bt170.00) BBL posted a 3Q25 net profit of Bt13.8b, +11% yoy and +17% qoq. The results beat our and consensus expectations by 40% and 27%, respectively. The loan portfolio contracted 3.2% in 9M25. Meanwhile, an investment gain boosted bottom line, beating expectations in 3Q25. We should see the NPL reduction pattern continuing in 4Q25, in line with the guidance. Maintain HOLD with a higher target price of Bt170.00. Compan...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: October Conviction Calls The HSI and MSCI China gained 7.1%/8.2% mom in September on Fed easing and optimism over advancements in semiconductors and AI. We remain positive in the medium term but expect near-term consolidation after the recent strong gains. The best performer of the month was Alibaba (+53.0% mom). With some rotations expected in non-tech stocks, our October calls are: add Galaxy, Jacobson, Ping An, Trip.com and WuXi Bio to BUY; SELL Meituan. ...
Hotel stocks reported a combined core profit of Bt3,767m for 2Q25 (+0.4% yoy, +101.3% qoq), mainly supported by MINT’s strong hotel performance in Europe. However, Thai tourism’s 3Q25 outlook should remain dull, similar to 2Q25. Hopes of hotel operators rest on the high travel season in 4Q25, as room bookings still indicate a positive momentum. MINT remains our top pick given its lower cost of debt. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: September Conviction Calls: Add Anta, BYDE and CSCEC to our BUY list, Li Auto and OOIL to our SELL list. Take profit on Innovent, JD Logistics, Lenovo, Sino Biopharm, Tencent and TME. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Underperformance In August: Our new Alpha Picks are ASSA, ARCI, BBCA, BBNI, BRMS, MTEL, HRUM and NCKL. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Wake Me Up When September Ends: Our Aug 25 Alpha Picks underperformed marginally. Sep 25 picks: Alpha IVF, Hume ...
We attended ERW’s 2Q25 analyst meeting and the tone was neutral. Management revised down the 2025 growth guidance as expected, with revenue growth to be driven solely by Hop Inns. The Grand Hyatt renovation is postponed to 2Q26 which is positive for ERW’s earnings in the short term. However, the outlook for 3Q25 remains gloomy and hotel performance remains weak as there are no clear signs of recovery in Chinese tourist arrivals. Maintain HOLD. Target price: Bt2.90.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Bangkok Chain Hospital (BCH TB/BUY/Bt14.10/Target: Bt17.50) 2Q25: Reported strong earnings as expected. Update Central Pattana (CPN TB/BUY/Bt54.50/Target: Bt79.60) Favourable 2H25 outlook anchored by core business resilience. Central Plaza Hotel (CENTEL TB/BUY/Bt27.00/Target: Bt33.00) Expect a gradual improvement in outlook. Charoen Pokphand Foods (CPF TB/HOLD/Bt24.40/Target: Bt24.00) 2Q25 earnings in line; 3Q25 earnings momentum to soften. The Erawan ...
GREATER CHINA Economics Economic Activity: Growth decelerates as trade war impact deepens. Results Chongqing Brewery (600132 CH/BUY/Rmb55.26/Target: Rmb67.40): 2Q25: Volume remained flat but ASP dropped 2% yoy; expanding off-trade channel to offset the weakness in on-trade channel. CSPC Innovation Pharmaceutical Co (300765 CH/HOLD/Rmb53.00/Target: Rmb52.00): 1H25: Results in line, smooth progress in R&D. Update Foxconn Industrial Internet (601138 CH/BUY/Rmb44.86/Target: Rmb49.50): Solid 3Q guida...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: August Conviction Calls: Add JBM Healthcare and Lenovo to our BUY list. Take profit on CATL, Han’s Laser, KE Holdings and Longfor. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Underperformance In July: Our new Alpha Picks are ASSA, AKRA, ARCI, BBNI, KLBF, MTEL, and MYOR. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Some Opportunities Amid A “Summer Lull”: Our July 25 Alpha Picks outperformed. Aug 25 picks: Coraza, Eco World, Gamuda, Hume Cement, IJM, Inari, RHB and Zetrix. SINGAPORE ...
ERW is expected to report a weak net profit of Bt45m (-70.0% yoy, -86.9% qoq) in 2Q25. The top-line is expected to contract yoy mainly due to a substantial yoy drop in occupancy in both luxury and economy hotels caused by the decline in Chinese visitor numbers. We expect to see further downward revision of ERW’s 2025 growth targets and no immediate signs of an improvement in outlook. Downgrade to HOLD. Target price: Bt2.50.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Initiate Coverage Bangkok Commercial Asset Management (BAM TB/BUY/Bt8.05/Target: Bt9.50) Thailand’s largest asset management company, with growth fuelled by strong partnerships. Update STECON Group (STECON TB/BUY/Bt6.40/Target: Bt9.00) Earnings forecast to rise sharply in 2Q25, driven by one-off items. The Erawan Group (ERW TB/HOLD/Bt2.46/Target: Bt2.50) Expect weak earnings in 2Q25, no improvement in outlook. Downgrade to HOLD.
GREATER CHINA Economics PMI Rebound falters, weighed down by weaker construction and input cost pressures. Sector Automobile Weekly: PV sales pressured by anti-involution initiatives. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector. Top BUYs: CATL, Geely and Tuopu. Results Budweiser APAC (1876 HK/BUY/HK$8.26/Target: HK$12.00) ...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: July Conviction Calls: Add CATL, KE Holdings, Longfor, Midea Group, Tencent and TME to our BUY list. Take profit on Prudential. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Good Performances In June: Our new Alpha Picks are ANTM, BBCA, ERAA, ICBP, MYOR, MIKA, AMRT and TLKM. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Positioning For Positive US Trade Deals: Our Jun 25 Alpha Picks outperform. Jul 25 picks: Coraza, Duopharma, Eco World, Gamuda, Hume Cement, IJM, Inari and MYEG. SINGAP...
GREATER CHINA Economics PMI Modest recovery with construction rebound. Sector Macau Gaming Jun 25 GGR beat consensus by 9%; GGR has regained momentum in recent months. INDONESIA Small/Mid Cap Highlights MAP Aktif Adiperkasa (MAPA IJ/NOT RATED/Rp700) Expanding active lifestyle retail business; 1Q25 NPAT up 21% yoy. MAL...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: June Conviction Calls: Add Prudential and Sino Biopharm to our BUY list. Take profit on SHKP and Trip.com. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Good Performances In May: Good performances from most with the exception of GOTO and BUKA. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Raising Emphasis On Infrastructure Plays: Our May 25 Alpha Picks outperformed with resounding success. June 25 picks: Duopharma, Eco World, Gamuda, Hume Cement, IJM, MYEG, Northeast Group. SINGAPORE S...
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