A director at Li Ning Co Ltd bought 882,000 shares at 15.277HKD and the significance rating of the trade was 67/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clear...
There are ongoing diverging consumption trends in China’s sportswear sector. Consumers remain value-conscious, while outdoor functional wear and niche categories have been gaining momentum. Sportswear companies achieved Double 11 sales in line with internal expectations and discounts improved yoy. However, it is still uncertain on achieving retail sales targets. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. The top pick is Anta given its strong execution and high earnings visibility.
Li Ning’s retail sell-through declined by a mid-single-digit in 3Q24. Both offline and online channels have recorded positive retail sell-through growth qtd, but uncertainties remain in 4Q24 as there has been no significant improvement in consumption after the government’s introduction of supportive policies. Discounts may deepen in 4Q24, given the industry-wide inventory pressure and intense competition among platforms for this year’s Double 11. Maintain BUY but cut target price by 12% to HK$20...
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Property In the first three weeks of Oct 24, property transactions in Tier 1 cities have yet to fully exceed the volume observed in the three weeks following the 17 May policy combo. The National Day holidays might be a key factor affecting sales. The first-home mortgage rate in Guangzhou fell to 2.75%, and is moving closer to the city's average rental yield of 2.34%. However, we have yet to see further updates on destocking. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Update Li Ning...
GREATER CHINA Sector Property Expect a narrower gap between mortgage rates and rental yields of China’s major cities. Update Li Ning (2331 HK/BUY/HK$16.06/Target: HK$20.40) 3Q24 sell-through declined by mid-single-digit; uncertainties remain and discounts may deepen in 4Q24. INDONESIA Initiate Coverage Bank Syariah Indonesia (BRIS IJ/BUY/Rp3,000/Target: Rp3,400) ...
China consumer stocks under our coverage have rebounded by 33% on average since end-Sep 24, but current valuations are still undemanding. With direct policy support and a potential wealth effect, we believe China consumers are restoring their confidence. China consumer companies should see better earnings visibility in 2024, which should support further re-rating. We suggest investors refocus on the China theme in the near term. We prefer Anta, Galaxy, Haidilao, Haier, Mengniu and Midea. Maintai...
GREATER CHINA Sector Consumer Golden Week: Tourism and home appliances the bright spots; refocus on China theme. Internet Government policy rollout to boost consumption and drive valuation repair. Update Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (388 HK/HOLD/HK$340.80/Target: HK$355.00) Further valuation re-rating requires more sustainable AD...
For Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, tourism, duty-free shopping and home appliance consumption were the bright spots. Domestic tourism and duty-free shopping had the strongest recovery among mini breaks this year. For the home appliance sector, trade-in policies are beginning to stimulate consumer demand. We prefer companies that: a) are disciplined in business operation; b) have good prospects in overseas business; and c) maintain healthy inventories. We prefer Anta, Galaxy, Haidilao, Haier, Midea...
After the 2Q24/1H24 results, we are now more cautious on China’s consumer sector. For consumer discretionary, domestic operations were impacted by weak offline traffic. Companies remained concrete on overseas expansion and became more disciplined on cost control to protect the margin level amid the slower top-line growth. For consumer staple, we observed slower product mix upgrade. Companies adopted proactive shipment control to manage channel inventories. Operating efficiency improvement became...
GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile Weekly: PV sales rebound by 14.7% yoy, beating estimates. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Desay SV, and Geely. Top SELL: GAC. Consumer 2Q24/1H24 results wrap-up: Lowered expectations; disciplined operations matter. INDONESIA Update Sido Muncul (SIDO IJ/BUY/Rp680/Target: Rp900) ...
Li Ning’s 1H24 results were better than expected. Despite ytd retail sell-through being lower than management’s expectation, discounts improved in 1H24 and inventory turnover remained healthy, thanks to the proactive initiatives. Management turned more cautious on its business operations, and lowered full-year revenue guidance to low single-digit growth. However, it still maintained its low-teens net margin expectation. We raise target price by 4% to HK$19.90. Upgrade to BUY.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Banking The PBOC reiterated it will reduce its focus on quantitative targets and elevate the importance of interest rates in its quarterly report. According to NAFR, Chinese banks delivered a muted earnings growth in 2Q24 due to a slowdown in balance sheet growth, but NIM and asset quality pressures are easing. Upside surprise could come from non-interest income due to a bullish bond market. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Top pick: CMB. Results Li Ning (2331 HK/BUY/HK$13.10/T...
GREATER CHINA Sector Banking: 2Q24 results preview: Shifting away from volume to price. Results Li Ning (2331 HK/BUY/HK$13.10/Target: HK$19.90): 1H24: Better-than-expected results; trim revenue guidance but maintain margin expectation for 2024. Upgrade to BUY. ZTE Corporation (763 HK/BUY/HK$16.76/Target: HK$19.00): 2Q24: Product mix deterioration offset by cost controls. INDONESIA Update Bukalapak.com (BUKA IJ/BUY/Rp120/Target: Rp270): Sustainable positive adjusted EBITDA. MALAYSIA Small/Mid C...
2024’s 618 overall GMV was down by 7% yoy. By channel, livestreaming platforms continued to gain momentum, with GMV up 12% yoy, while the cosmetics category saw a significant shift towards livestreaming platforms. By brand, domestic cosmetics and sportswear brands recorded strong performances. Maintain OVERWEIGHT on China’s consumer sector.
During the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, consumer services, experiential spending (eg tourism) and lower-tier cities continued to lead the growth. For China’s consumer sector, we keep Anta, CTGDF, Haidilao, Haier and Shenzhou as our most preferred stocks. At the same time, we add Miniso but remove CR Beer and Midea from the stock picks. Maintain OVERWEIGHT on China’s consumer sector.
GREATER CHINA Sector Consumer Dragon Boat Festival: Consumer services, experiential spending, and lower-tier cities lead growth. INDONESIA Update Vale Indonesia (INCO IJ/HOLD/Rp4,300/Target: Rp4,300) Issuance of new shares to complete the divestment process. MALAYSIA Sector Telecommunications 1Q24 earnings up 14% yoy on the back ...
During the Labour Day holiday, tourism and catering continued to record strong performances, while DF per capita spending showed a downward trend. We reiterate our key theses for the consumer sector, highlighting companies with: a) overseas expansion or turnaround prospects, b) upside potential of improving operating efficiency, or c) near-term catalysts. We keep Anta, CR Beer, CTGDF, Haidilao, Haier, Midea and Shenzhou as our most preferred stocks, but remove Galaxy from the stock picks. Mainta...
Li Ning’s 1Q24 low single-digit sell-through growth rate was in line with management’s expectations. Looking ahead, management expects sell-through growth to remain under pressure in 2Q24 and then improve in 2H24. It maintains its 2024 full-year targets of mid-single-digit % revenue growth and low-teens % net margin. However, revenue growth in 2H24 should be higher than that in 1H24, due to the base effect. Maintain HOLD and cut target price by 2% to HK$19.20.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Update Jiumaojiu International Holdings (9922 HK/BUY/HK$4.57/Target: HK$5.30) SSS declines in 1Q24; strategic readjustment to fit value-for-money experience. Li Ning (2331 HK/HOLD/HK$17.50/Target: HK$19.20) 1Q24 sell-through growth in line; expect sell-through growth to pick up starting from 2H24. TRADERS’ CORNER Tsingtao Brewery Co., Ltd. (168 HK): Trading Buy range: HK$55.70-56.45 Bank of Communication Co., Ltd. (3328 HK): Trading Buy range: HK$5.25-5.30
GREATER CHINA Update Jiumaojiu International Holdings (9922 HK/BUY/HK$4.57/Target: HK$5.30): SSS declines in 1Q24; strategic readjustment to fit value-for-money experience. Li Ning (2331 HK/HOLD/HK$17.50/Target: HK$19.20): 1Q24 sell-through growth in line; expect sell-through growth to pick up starting from 2H24. INDONESIA Strategy Potential Impact Of The Middle East Conflict: Our top picks: Banking – BBNI, BBTN; property − BSDE, CTRA; technology – BUKA; consumer − MYOR, CMRY; retail – ACES; in...
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