Top Stories Sector Update | Automobile Chinese EVs are gaining share in the global auto market, due to China’s integrated supply chain dominance and favourable trade policies. Established incumbents like BYD are facing increasing competition from fellow Chinese auto OEMs and some western brands like VW. Lower-export OEMs (Geely, XPeng) hold greater upside than high-export leaders (BYD, GWM). China’s EV export hub status benefits suppliers as foreign OEMs leverage local production. Maintain MARKE...
In 4Q25, Li Ning recorded a low single-digit yoy decline in retail sell-through. Qtd, retail sell-through momentum has not yet improved, and discounts have continued to deepen yoy, leading management to anticipate persistent discount pressure in 2026. For the full year 2025, management is confident in exceeding its previous guidance, expecting modest revenue growth (vs guidance of flattish revenue) and net profit margin to reach the upper end of the high single-digit range. We raise target price...
Top Stories Economics | Money Supply December’s monetary data was mixed. M1 growth slowed further to 3.8% yoy, slightly below expectations, while M2 growth improved to 8.5% yoy on stronger time deposits growth. On a positive note, new bank loans rebounded to Rmb0.91t, mainly driven by corporate and government borrowing, and new TSF also beat forecasts. However, outstanding bank loan growth stayed at a year-low of 6.4% yoy and TSF growth eased to 8.3% yoy, underscoring still-fragile credit deman...
Greater China Economics | Money Supply December’s monetary data was mixed. M1 growth slowed further to 3.8% yoy, slightly below expectations, while M2 growth improved to 8.5% yoy on stronger time deposits growth. On a positive note, new bank loans rebounded to Rmb0.91t, mainly driven by corporate and government borrowing, and new TSF also beat forecasts. However, outstanding bank loan growth stayed at a year-low of 6.4% yoy and TSF growth eased to 8.3% yoy, underscoring still-fragile credit ...
A director at Li Ning Co Ltd bought 19,163,000 shares at 16.797HKD and the significance rating of the trade was 68/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years cl...
We met investors in Thailand and Malaysia during our marketing trip from 24-28 Nov 25. Overall investor interest in the China consumer sector is improving. The most frequently discussed names and segments include Miniso, Shenzhou, Anta, consumer staples (including dairy, beer and baijiu), as well as some new consumption names such as Pop Mart (non-rated) and Laopu Gold (non-rated). Our preferred stocks include Galaxy, Midea, Miniso, Shenzhou and Sands China. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Greater China Sector Update | Consumer We met investors in Thailand and Malaysia during our marketing trip from 24-28 Nov 25. Overall investor interest in the China consumer sector is improving. The most frequently discussed segments and names include Miniso, Shenzhou, Anta, consumer staples (including dairy, beer and baijiu), as well as some new consumption names such as Pop Mart (non-rated) and Laopu Gold (non-rated). Our preferred stocks include: Galaxy, Midea, Miniso, Shenzhou and Sands ...
In 3Q25, Li Ning recorded a mid-single-digit decline in retail sell-through, with momentum weakening sequentially mom. Discounts deepened by a low single digit yoy, due to increased promotions. Qtd, retail sell-through momentum has continued to weaken, and discounts have deepened further, making it challenging for the company to achieve its full-year guidance. We cut the target price by 2% to HK$18.50 and maintain HOLD.
Greater China Sector Update | Internet Data from the initial phase of the 11.11 campaign set a compelling prelude for a mid-single-digit GMV growth in 4Q25. The new phase of 11.11 is characterised by a longer cycle, simplified promotion mechanics, and deeper technological integration. Platform competition has shifted from “traffic wars” to “efficiency wars”, as AI enhances demand-supply matching and instant retail breaks offline barriers, reducing consumer decision costs. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT....
Top Stories Sector Update | Internet Data from the initial phase of the 11.11 campaign set a compelling prelude for a mid-single-digit GMV growth in 4Q25. The new phase of 11.11 is characterised by a longer cycle, simplified promotion mechanics, and deeper technological integration. Platform competition has shifted from “traffic wars” to “efficiency wars”, as AI enhances demand-supply matching and instant retail breaks offline barriers, reducing consumer decision costs. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Our...
We observed the following trends in holiday consumption: a) jewellery performed well on rising gold prices; b) retail and catering consumption was modest, with growth decelerating from that during the 2025 Spring Festival and Labour Day; c) specialty retail (duty-free) saw per capita spending improve; and d) consumers continued to show enthusiasm for tourism and leisure spending, with domestic long-haul travel and outbound travel gaining popularity. The lower-than-expected Macau visitor arrivals...
On 16 Sep 25, the Ministry of Commerce and eight other government departments jointly issued a plan to expand service consumption. This plan introduces 19 measures focusing on five areas. We highlight IP-related consumption and tourism as the two primary themes positioned to benefit the most. In addition, the government plans to optimise student vacation schedules by exploring the possibility of shortening winter and summer vacations while introducing spring and autumn vacations to increase the ...
In 2Q25/1H25, among 22 companies under our coverage, 9 beat / 7 inline or mixed / 6 missed. We observed: a) Deflation persists. b) Companies with more diversified product portfolios, along with product offerings ridding on the emerging consumption trends, stay constructive. c) Companies are expanding into new consumption channels. d) Sectors supported by monetised policy stimulus continue to demonstrate robust domestic sales in 3Q25. e) Companies are committed to enhancing shareholder returns. W...
Greater China Sector Updates | Consumer In 2Q25/1H25, among 22 companies under our coverage, 9 beat / 7 inline or mixed / 6 missed. We observed: a) Deflation persists. b) Companies with more diversified product portfolios, along with product offerings ridding on the emerging consumption trends, stay constructive. c) Companies are expanding into new consumption channels. d) Sectors supported by monetised policy stimulus continue to demonstrate robust domestic sales in 3Q25. e) Companies are c...
Li Ning’s 1H25 results were better than expected. However, the offline footfall trend has weakened in 3Q25, leading management to expect challenges in offline sell-through for 2H25. The trend of deepening discounts may persist into 2H25. This could put pressure on gross margin, resulting in a yoy decline for the full year. Together with the higher A&P expenses, leading us to maintain a cautious view on net margin in 2H25. Keep target price of HK$18.90 unchanged. Downgrade to HOLD from BUY.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (1093 HK/BUY/HK$10.51/Target: HK$12.00) CSPC’s 1H25 revenue declined 18.5% yoy and adjusted net earnings fell 27.9% yoy due to VBP price pressure on major products. Management expects revenue to grow 5% hoh and the company to secure two more major BD deals in 2H25. We believe the negatives have been largely priced in, and its persistent R&D efforts and growing BD deals will drive a brighter growth outlook in the long term. Maintain BUY with a hi...
GREATER CHINA Results CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (1093 HK/BUY/HK$10.51/Target: HK$12.00) 1H25: Results miss; expects hoh sales recovery and two more BD deals in 2H25. Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK/BUY/HK$30.80/Target: HK$40.00) 2Q25: Net loss in line; 3Q25 turnaround on the back of lithium carbonate price recovery. Maintain BUY, target price: HK$40.00. Li Ning (2331 HK/HOLD/HK$19.70/Target: HK$18.90) 1H25: Results beat but challenges remain in 2H25; fa...
Li Ning’s 2Q25 retail sell-through fell short of management’s expectation. In Jul 25, sellthrough momentum remained under pressure. Looking ahead, management believes it is challenging for the company to achieve its internal retail sell-through target in 2H25 as well as the full-year target. Discounts deepened in 2Q25 and further in Jul 25, putting full-year gross margin under pressure vs 2024’s level. Maintain BUY; cut target price by 1% to HK$18.90.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics Money Supply June’s M1 growth accelerated to 4.6% yoy (+2.3ppt), well above the 2.8% yoy consensus forecast. M2 growth rose to 8.3% yoy (+0.4ppt), just slightly ahead of the 8.2% yoy forecast. Although new bank loans and TSF surged to Rmb2.24t and Rmb4.20t respectively, both exceeding expectations, outstanding TSF growth edged higher to only 8.9% yoy (+0.2ppt), while outstanding bank loans held steady. This reflects the falling impact of monetary easing greater fisca...
GREATER CHINA Economics Money Supply New credit jumps in June, but annual credit growth edges lower. Trade June data above expectations. Strategy Small-Mid Cap Monthly Maintain BUY on Crystal for its strong order growth momentum in 1H25; long-term wallet share gains intact. In...
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