Chinese equities consolidated further in March amid outbreak of hostilities in the Middle East, with the HSI and MSCI China Index declining 6.9% mom and 7.5% mom respectively. We expect markets to stay volatile in April, though oversold rebounds are possible. We continue to focus on names with stronger fundamentals and remain buyers of tech names, adding Li Ning and Zijin Mining to our BUY list while taking profits on Ganfeng Lithium and cutting losses on LINK REIT.
2025 revenue was in line, while net profit beat expectations. For 2026, management now has a more positive outlook, expecting revenue to grow at high single digits. Given the higher investments and the accelerated expansion via the new store format, operating margin is likely to decline. Nevertheless, net margin is still expected to remain within the high singledigit range. We believe Li Ning’s business operations have come out of the woods. Upgrade to BUY with the target price at HK$24.70.
Top Stories Company Results | China Resources Building Materials Technology (1313 HK/BUY/HK$1.63/Target: HK$1.80) CRBMT reported 2025 earnings of Rmb479.4m (+127.3% yoy), in line with its profit alert but below expectations. Revenue declined 8.6% yoy to Rmb21.1b, while group gross margin edged up to 16.7% (+0.2ppt yoy) on lower coal costs (–16.5% yoy to Rmb670/tonne). Management expects regional cement demand to fall 6-8% yoy in 2026; however, it is targeting a 5% volume decline, implying marke...
Greater China Company Results | China Resources Building Materials Technology (1313 HK/BUY/HK$1.63/Target: HK$1.80) CRBMT reported 2025 earnings of Rmb479.4m (+127.3% yoy), in line with its profit alert but below expectations. Revenue declined 8.6% yoy to Rmb21.1b, while group gross margin edged up to 16.7% (+0.2ppt yoy) on lower coal costs (–16.5% yoy to Rmb670/tonne). Management expects regional cement demand to fall 6-8% yoy in 2026; however, it is targeting a 5% volume decline, implying mark...
The CNY consumption data exhibited accelerated growth momentum compared with the two Golden Weeks last year, which we view as early signs of a broader consumption recovery. We favour companies benefitting from: a) segments showing initial signals of recovery, such as restaurants; b) exposure to China’s structural consumption growth drivers, particularly in services and experiential consumption; c) potential policy tailwinds; and d) overseas growth. Our preferred stocks include Anta, CR Beer, CTG...
Top Stories Sector Update | Automobile Chinese EVs are gaining share in the global auto market, due to China’s integrated supply chain dominance and favourable trade policies. Established incumbents like BYD are facing increasing competition from fellow Chinese auto OEMs and some western brands like VW. Lower-export OEMs (Geely, XPeng) hold greater upside than high-export leaders (BYD, GWM). China’s EV export hub status benefits suppliers as foreign OEMs leverage local production. Maintain MARKE...
In 4Q25, Li Ning recorded a low single-digit yoy decline in retail sell-through. Qtd, retail sell-through momentum has not yet improved, and discounts have continued to deepen yoy, leading management to anticipate persistent discount pressure in 2026. For the full year 2025, management is confident in exceeding its previous guidance, expecting modest revenue growth (vs guidance of flattish revenue) and net profit margin to reach the upper end of the high single-digit range. We raise target price...
Top Stories Economics | Money Supply December’s monetary data was mixed. M1 growth slowed further to 3.8% yoy, slightly below expectations, while M2 growth improved to 8.5% yoy on stronger time deposits growth. On a positive note, new bank loans rebounded to Rmb0.91t, mainly driven by corporate and government borrowing, and new TSF also beat forecasts. However, outstanding bank loan growth stayed at a year-low of 6.4% yoy and TSF growth eased to 8.3% yoy, underscoring still-fragile credit deman...
Greater China Economics | Money Supply December’s monetary data was mixed. M1 growth slowed further to 3.8% yoy, slightly below expectations, while M2 growth improved to 8.5% yoy on stronger time deposits growth. On a positive note, new bank loans rebounded to Rmb0.91t, mainly driven by corporate and government borrowing, and new TSF also beat forecasts. However, outstanding bank loan growth stayed at a year-low of 6.4% yoy and TSF growth eased to 8.3% yoy, underscoring still-fragile credit ...
A director at Li Ning Co Ltd bought 19,163,000 shares at 16.797HKD and the significance rating of the trade was 68/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years cl...
We met investors in Thailand and Malaysia during our marketing trip from 24-28 Nov 25. Overall investor interest in the China consumer sector is improving. The most frequently discussed names and segments include Miniso, Shenzhou, Anta, consumer staples (including dairy, beer and baijiu), as well as some new consumption names such as Pop Mart (non-rated) and Laopu Gold (non-rated). Our preferred stocks include Galaxy, Midea, Miniso, Shenzhou and Sands China. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Greater China Sector Update | Consumer We met investors in Thailand and Malaysia during our marketing trip from 24-28 Nov 25. Overall investor interest in the China consumer sector is improving. The most frequently discussed segments and names include Miniso, Shenzhou, Anta, consumer staples (including dairy, beer and baijiu), as well as some new consumption names such as Pop Mart (non-rated) and Laopu Gold (non-rated). Our preferred stocks include: Galaxy, Midea, Miniso, Shenzhou and Sands ...
In 3Q25, Li Ning recorded a mid-single-digit decline in retail sell-through, with momentum weakening sequentially mom. Discounts deepened by a low single digit yoy, due to increased promotions. Qtd, retail sell-through momentum has continued to weaken, and discounts have deepened further, making it challenging for the company to achieve its full-year guidance. We cut the target price by 2% to HK$18.50 and maintain HOLD.
Greater China Sector Update | Internet Data from the initial phase of the 11.11 campaign set a compelling prelude for a mid-single-digit GMV growth in 4Q25. The new phase of 11.11 is characterised by a longer cycle, simplified promotion mechanics, and deeper technological integration. Platform competition has shifted from “traffic wars” to “efficiency wars”, as AI enhances demand-supply matching and instant retail breaks offline barriers, reducing consumer decision costs. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT....
Top Stories Sector Update | Internet Data from the initial phase of the 11.11 campaign set a compelling prelude for a mid-single-digit GMV growth in 4Q25. The new phase of 11.11 is characterised by a longer cycle, simplified promotion mechanics, and deeper technological integration. Platform competition has shifted from “traffic wars” to “efficiency wars”, as AI enhances demand-supply matching and instant retail breaks offline barriers, reducing consumer decision costs. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Our...
We observed the following trends in holiday consumption: a) jewellery performed well on rising gold prices; b) retail and catering consumption was modest, with growth decelerating from that during the 2025 Spring Festival and Labour Day; c) specialty retail (duty-free) saw per capita spending improve; and d) consumers continued to show enthusiasm for tourism and leisure spending, with domestic long-haul travel and outbound travel gaining popularity. The lower-than-expected Macau visitor arrivals...
On 16 Sep 25, the Ministry of Commerce and eight other government departments jointly issued a plan to expand service consumption. This plan introduces 19 measures focusing on five areas. We highlight IP-related consumption and tourism as the two primary themes positioned to benefit the most. In addition, the government plans to optimise student vacation schedules by exploring the possibility of shortening winter and summer vacations while introducing spring and autumn vacations to increase the ...
In 2Q25/1H25, among 22 companies under our coverage, 9 beat / 7 inline or mixed / 6 missed. We observed: a) Deflation persists. b) Companies with more diversified product portfolios, along with product offerings ridding on the emerging consumption trends, stay constructive. c) Companies are expanding into new consumption channels. d) Sectors supported by monetised policy stimulus continue to demonstrate robust domestic sales in 3Q25. e) Companies are committed to enhancing shareholder returns. W...
Greater China Sector Updates | Consumer In 2Q25/1H25, among 22 companies under our coverage, 9 beat / 7 inline or mixed / 6 missed. We observed: a) Deflation persists. b) Companies with more diversified product portfolios, along with product offerings ridding on the emerging consumption trends, stay constructive. c) Companies are expanding into new consumption channels. d) Sectors supported by monetised policy stimulus continue to demonstrate robust domestic sales in 3Q25. e) Companies are c...
Li Ning’s 1H25 results were better than expected. However, the offline footfall trend has weakened in 3Q25, leading management to expect challenges in offline sell-through for 2H25. The trend of deepening discounts may persist into 2H25. This could put pressure on gross margin, resulting in a yoy decline for the full year. Together with the higher A&P expenses, leading us to maintain a cautious view on net margin in 2H25. Keep target price of HK$18.90 unchanged. Downgrade to HOLD from BUY.
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