In 2Q25/1H25, among 22 companies under our coverage, 9 beat / 7 inline or mixed / 6 missed. We observed: a) Deflation persists. b) Companies with more diversified product portfolios, along with product offerings ridding on the emerging consumption trends, stay constructive. c) Companies are expanding into new consumption channels. d) Sectors supported by monetised policy stimulus continue to demonstrate robust domestic sales in 3Q25. e) Companies are committed to enhancing shareholder returns. W...
Greater China Sector Updates | Consumer In 2Q25/1H25, among 22 companies under our coverage, 9 beat / 7 inline or mixed / 6 missed. We observed: a) Deflation persists. b) Companies with more diversified product portfolios, along with product offerings ridding on the emerging consumption trends, stay constructive. c) Companies are expanding into new consumption channels. d) Sectors supported by monetised policy stimulus continue to demonstrate robust domestic sales in 3Q25. e) Companies are c...
Li Ning’s 1H25 results were better than expected. However, the offline footfall trend has weakened in 3Q25, leading management to expect challenges in offline sell-through for 2H25. The trend of deepening discounts may persist into 2H25. This could put pressure on gross margin, resulting in a yoy decline for the full year. Together with the higher A&P expenses, leading us to maintain a cautious view on net margin in 2H25. Keep target price of HK$18.90 unchanged. Downgrade to HOLD from BUY.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (1093 HK/BUY/HK$10.51/Target: HK$12.00) CSPC’s 1H25 revenue declined 18.5% yoy and adjusted net earnings fell 27.9% yoy due to VBP price pressure on major products. Management expects revenue to grow 5% hoh and the company to secure two more major BD deals in 2H25. We believe the negatives have been largely priced in, and its persistent R&D efforts and growing BD deals will drive a brighter growth outlook in the long term. Maintain BUY with a hi...
GREATER CHINA Results CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (1093 HK/BUY/HK$10.51/Target: HK$12.00) 1H25: Results miss; expects hoh sales recovery and two more BD deals in 2H25. Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK/BUY/HK$30.80/Target: HK$40.00) 2Q25: Net loss in line; 3Q25 turnaround on the back of lithium carbonate price recovery. Maintain BUY, target price: HK$40.00. Li Ning (2331 HK/HOLD/HK$19.70/Target: HK$18.90) 1H25: Results beat but challenges remain in 2H25; fa...
A director at Li Ning Co Ltd bought 4,944,000 shares at 16.002HKD and the significance rating of the trade was 67/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years cle...
Li Ning’s 2Q25 retail sell-through fell short of management’s expectation. In Jul 25, sellthrough momentum remained under pressure. Looking ahead, management believes it is challenging for the company to achieve its internal retail sell-through target in 2H25 as well as the full-year target. Discounts deepened in 2Q25 and further in Jul 25, putting full-year gross margin under pressure vs 2024’s level. Maintain BUY; cut target price by 1% to HK$18.90.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics Money Supply June’s M1 growth accelerated to 4.6% yoy (+2.3ppt), well above the 2.8% yoy consensus forecast. M2 growth rose to 8.3% yoy (+0.4ppt), just slightly ahead of the 8.2% yoy forecast. Although new bank loans and TSF surged to Rmb2.24t and Rmb4.20t respectively, both exceeding expectations, outstanding TSF growth edged higher to only 8.9% yoy (+0.2ppt), while outstanding bank loans held steady. This reflects the falling impact of monetary easing greater fisca...
GREATER CHINA Economics Money Supply New credit jumps in June, but annual credit growth edges lower. Trade June data above expectations. Strategy Small-Mid Cap Monthly Maintain BUY on Crystal for its strong order growth momentum in 1H25; long-term wallet share gains intact. In...
During the Labour Day holiday (1-5 May), Macau's visitor arrivals significantly beat the government's expectation. Retail and catering sales showed a modest improvement in terms of yoy growth compared with the Chinese New Year holiday, while home appliance sales continued to benefit from the trade-in programme, with premium products demonstrating robust growth. Maintain OVERWEIGHT on the China consumer sector. Our top picks include CR Beer, Mengniu, and Moutai.
GREATER CHINA Strategy China And Hong Kong Property Market watch around May holiday: New-home sales recovery weakens in Apr 25; the trend of Hong Kong resident travelling north remains strong. Sector Consumer Strong Macau visitations and robust home appliance sales during Labour Day Holiday. INDONESIA Initiate Coverage Aneka Tambang (ANTM IJ/BUY/Rp2,540/Target:...
Li Ning's retail sell-through grew by a low single digit in 1Q25. However, the momentum began weakening in Mar 25, with sell-through demonstrating a yoy decline in offline channel mtd. Discount pressure has emerged since Mar 25, and discounts have deepened yoy across all the channels mtd. Management expects discount pressure to increase further in 2Q25. Maintain BUY and target price of HK$19.00.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Online Travel Agencies We saw continuous vitality in cultural and tourism consumption based on 1Q25 travel data and Labour Day travel data projections. Key travellers’ preference trends during Labour Day 2025 will be long-haul travel, inbound tourism and county-level travel. With favourable policy support such as the implementation of "instant tax refunds" for outbound travel, we expect to see promising revenue and earnings growth from OTA companies in 1H25. Maintain OVER...
GREATER CHINA Sector Online Travel Agencies: Travel data preview: Expecting a vibrant 2025 Labour Day Results BYD Electronic (285 HK/BUY/HK$31.80/Target: HK$41.20): 1Q25: Margins below expectations; automotive business to lead the charge in 2025. Maintain BUY. China Resources Building Materials Technology (1313 HK/BUY/HK$1.69/Target: HK$2.30): 1Q25: In line; severe drought in Guangxi restricts cement products outflow. China State Construction Engineering Corporation (601668 CH/BUY/Rmb5.49 /Targe...
Li Ning’s 2024 revenue beat expectations but net profit missed. Sell-through remained flat in 2024, with offline channel recording a low-single-digit decline. Looking ahead to 2025, management remains cautious in light of the uncertain external environment, expecting revenue to remain flat. It targets net margin to be at high-single-digit range, as the company plans to increase investments in sports resources to enhance the competitiveness of its products. Maintain BUY; cut target price by 7% to...
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results China Construction Bank (939 HK/BUY/HK$6.70/Target: HK$7.50) CCB’s 2024 earnings (+0.9% yoy) were above our expectation, mainly driven by its resilient NIM on better deposit cost management, strong trading gains and lower impairment. Asset quality remains solid but pressure on the retail segment is increasing. MoF will inject Rmb105b of new capital into CCB which will result in a 4.3% equity dilution and 50bp boost in CET1 ratio. We expect a largely neutral market reacti...
GREATER CHINA Results China Construction Bank (939 HK/BUY/HK$6.70/Target: HK$7.50): 2024: Above expectations on better NIM; recapitalisation plan is finalised. China Shineway Pharmaceutical (2877 HK/HOLD/HK$8.05/Target: HK$8.50): 2024: Bottom line misses; targets revenue growth of 10% yoy in 2025. Great Wall Motor (2333 HK/BUY/HK$14.20/Target: HK$23.00): 4Q24: Earnings in line with estimates. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$23.00. Haier Smart Home (6690 HK/BUY/HK$24.70/Target: HK$37.80): 2024: 4Q...
On 16 March, the State Council issued a plan on special initiatives to boost consumption, aiming to increase spending power by increasing income and reducing financial burdens, generate effective demand through high-quality supply, and improve the consumption environment to strengthen consumers’ willingness to spend. In the China consumer sector, we prefer Anta, CR Beer, Galaxy, Haier, Mengniu, Midea, Miniso and Yili. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Consumption during the CNY demonstrated a satisfactory momentum. Daily average sales revenue of consumer-related industries grew 11% yoy, with the home appliances and furnishing category recording the highest growth rate. Domestic tourism per capita spending increased 1% yoy and recovered to 95% of 2019’s level, and Hainan DF per capita spending rose 4% yoy. Macau visitations recovered to 95% of 2019’s level. In the China consumer space, we prefer Anta, Haier, Mengniu, Midea, Miniso and Sands Ch...
We do not expect a strong consumption momentum for the upcoming CNY holiday, but expect home appliance, Macau gaming, movie and retail to be the bright spots. We prefer Anta, Haier, Mengniu, Midea, Miniso and Sands in China’s consumer space.
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