Company Update | Thai Oil (TOP TB/SELL/Bt36.00/Target: Bt31.00) We expect TOP’s 3Q25 net profit to decline qoq, as a lower market GRM and reduced utilisation rate should result in an anticipated core loss for the quarter. However, core earnings are expected to rebound qoq in 4Q25, supported by seasonal demand and the absence of maintenance activities. The perpetual bond issuance remains on schedule and is anticipated to be completed in early-26. Consequently, we have revised down our 2025 earn...
Top Stories Sector Update | Banking Banks under our coverage reported a combined net profit of Bt62.2b, up 14% yoy and 10% qoq, beating our expectation by 23% and the market's estimate by 13%. The key reason it exceeded expectations was an investment income that surpassed forecasts. All banks have reiterated their focus on asset quality and clean loan portfolios. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Our top picks are KBANK and KTB. Company Update | Berli Jucker (BJC TB/BUY/Bt19.70/Target: Bt24.00) BJ...
Greater China Sector Update | Automobile The escalating China-US trade tensions have triggered a dual crisis in chips and rare earth, potentially disrupting the global auto supply chain like that seen in 2021-22. China's auto sector sees short-term gains from domestic prioritisation but long-term risks. Chinese auto part companies may see a revenue loss in 4Q25 if the issue is not resolved in a month. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL and Geely. Top SELLs: BYD and Li Auto. Sector Upda...
We view Thai Oil Public Company Limited (TOP) as "Low Risk" on the LARA scale. This is primarily driven by the company's strategic importance to state-owned PTT Public Company Limited, due to its position as the group's main oil refining vehicle. TOP benefits from its close links with PTT, as TOP obtains feedstock from and sells refined products to its parent. In addition, TOP can obtain credit term extensions from PTT for crude oil purchases, which would support TOP's working capital. TOP o...
3Q25 core earnings are projected to decrease qoq and yoy, pressured by softer market GRM, maintenance shutdown of its key refinery unit as well as aromatics and lube base plants, and higher opex costs. Clearer details on the CFP project are to be known by this November. Given the gloomy outlook for 2H25, we maintain SELL on TOP (Target price: Bt30.00) and switch to OR, SCGP and IVL instead.
GREATER CHINA Strategy Small-Mid Cap Monthly: Keeping an eye on JBM Healthcare’s upcoming marketing campaigns in 2H25. Results China Resources Building Materials Technology (1313 HK/BUY/HK$1.92/Target: HK$2.30): 1H25: In line; cement margins rebound, concrete delivers growth. Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group Company (3692 HK/BUY/HK$37.06/Target: HK$50.00): 1H25: Results beat; increases revenue growth guidance to high double-digit. Sino Biopharmaceutical (1177 HK/BUY/HK$7.91/Target: HK$10.50): 1H25: R...
TOP reported a 2Q25 net profit of Bt6.5b, up both qoq and yoy, better than our and consensus estimates by 20% and 27% respectively, and driven by larger-than-expected extra items. Core earnings also improved qoq and yoy in 2Q25, supported by robust market GRM. Looking forward, core earnings in 3Q35 are projected to decrease qoq and yoy, pressured by softer market GRM and reduced refinery utilisation from maintenance shutdowns. Downgrade to SELL. Target price: Bt30.00.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Amata Corporation (AMATA TB/BUY/Bt16.50/Target: Bt25.00) 2Q25: Earnings below expectations. AP Thailand (AP TB/BUY/Bt7.65/Target: Bt9.60) 2Q25: Earnings in line, optimistic 3Q25 outlook. Bangkok Commercial Asset Management (BAM TB/BUY/Bt8.40/Target: Bt10.00) 2Q25: Results in line with consensus; highest bottom line in the past 22 quarters. Bangkok Dusit Medical Services (BDMS TB/BUY...
GREATER CHINA Economics Money Supply Credit demand remains weak, though money supply improved. Results Nexteer Automotive Group (1316 HK/BUY/HK$6.92/Target: HK$10.00) 1H25: Earnings beat estimates on margins. Upgrade from HOLD to BUY. Raise target price to HK$10.00 Tencent Holdings (700 HK/BUY/HK$586.00/Target: HK$736.00) 2Q25: Resilient results; unfolding AI monetisation in online games...
We forecast TOP’s 2Q25 net profit at Bt5.4b, up qoq, supported by strong market GIM and sizeable one-time gains that should more than offset inventory losses. However, core profit in 3Q25 is projected to decline both qoq and yoy, due to a weaker market GRM and reduced refinery utilisation. In the near term, GRM softness and lingering uncertainty around the unfinished CFP project remain key headwinds. Maintain HOLD. Target price: Bt27.00.
GREATER CHINA Update Xtep International Holdings (1368 HK/BUY/HK$5.34/Target: HK$8.00) Confident in achieving full-year targets; Saucony on track to reach mid-term goal. INDONESIA Small/Mid Cap Highlights Bank KB Bukopin (BBKP IJ/NOT RATED/Rp60) Turnaround hinges on CoF reduction. MALAYSIA Update Kuala Lumpur Kepong (KLK MK/HOLD/RM20.46/Target: RM20.50) We expect 3QFY25 results to come in flat qoq, supported by firmer plantation output and lower forex ...
TOP is moving forward with the CFP project and expects to appoint a new main contractor by end-3Q25. In the short term, the CFP project remains a potential overhang for the share price, alongside an upcoming credit rating review scheduled for Aug 25. However, management has outlined plans to mitigate the risk of a rating downgrade. Looking ahead, refining margins remain robust but could be tempered by weak spreads in aromatics. Maintain HOLD. Target price: Bt27.00.
GREATER CHINA Update Foxconn Industrial Internet (601138 CH/BUY/Rmb19.22/Target: Rmb25.30) 2Q25 guidance in line; GB200/GB300 smooth production ramp as the key driver for 2025-26. Maintain BUY. INDONESIA Strategy JCI rallies from global tailwinds Market rebound gains momentum amid global tailwinds and rate cut hopes. MALAYSIA Results Maxis (MAXIS MK/BUY/RM3.76/Target: RM4.20) 1Q25: Strong set of results; earnings d...
TOP reported a 1Q25 net profit of Bt3.5b, up 27% qoq. This is in line with our forecast and 7% above the consensus estimate. The earnings were supported by a stock gain of Bt1.1b, which helped offset the impact of a weaker market GRM. However, core profit declined both qoq and yoy, reflecting the drop in market GIM. Looking ahead, core profit in 2Q25 is expected to decline qoq. Our core profit forecast for 2025 remains unchanged. Maintain HOLD. Target price: Bt27.00.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Strategy US-China Negotiations Progress in Geneva, Switzerland. Positive sign for trade negotiations from US and China. Results Banpu (BANPU TB/HOLD/Bt4.90/Target: Bt4.80) 1Q25: Net loss narrows qoq. Indorama Ventures (IVL TB/BUY/Bt20.40/Target: Bt24.00) 1Q25: Weak quarter, but recovery in sight. Thai Oil (TOP TB/HOLD/Bt27.25/Target: Bt27.00) 1Q25: Net profit in line with our expectations. Update Asset World...
GREATER CHINA Strategy China And Hong Kong Property: Channel check of Shanghai’s primary residential market; closer look at Hong Kong properties’ rental yields. MALAYSIA Results Westports Holdings (WPRTS MK/HOLD/RM4.53/Target: RM4.40): 1Q25: Results in line. WPRTS believes global acclimation towards tariff impact will rebalance trades; maintaining its 0-5% volume growth expectation. SINGAPORE Sector Banking: 1Q25 round-up: First-order direct impact assessed to be manageable. Upgrade to OVERWE...
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