Asia Monthly – November 2025 In Review - Lucror Analytics

In our latest Asia Monthly, we discuss the performance of major Asian credit indices and review UST curve movements in November 2025. We also provide a recap of major news and macroeconomic releases, including those from the US, China, India, Indonesia and Japan. In addition, we summarise the top/bottom performers, recent USD bond issuances and rating actions in Asian corporate credit, as well as a list of our recent research. The Asia Monthly publication serves to keep investors updated on ...

Thai Oil (TOP TB) - CFP Project On Track To Achieve COD As Scheduled A...

Company Update | Thai Oil (TOP TB/HOLD/Bt37.50/Target: Bt34.00) There is now clearer insight on the CFP project after TOP’s management reaffirmed their confidence that it will be completed as planned and within the approved capex budget. This is further supported by additional cash inflow from performance bond claims and the divestment of the ERU project, both of which will help fund the CFP project. Overall GRM remains robust but petrochemical spread continues to face supply-side pressures, pro...

Thailand Daily - Tuesday, November 18, 2025

Top Stories Company Update | Berli Jucker (BJC TB/BUY/Bt17.20/Target: Bt 24.00) The new JV between BJL and DHL is expected to enhance BJC’s logistics operations. For 2025, management guided for top-line to be flat yoy and a 15-20bps yoy expansion in gross margin, mainly driven by the non-retail segment. Maintain BUY with a target price of Bt24.00. Company Update | Central Plaza Hotel (CENTEL TB/BUY/Bt31.25/Target: Bt37.00) The tone during CENTEL’s analyst meeting was positive, supported by t...

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Tuesday, November 18, 2025

Greater China Company Results | Geely Auto (175 HK/BUY/HK$17.20/Target: HK$42.00 Geely’s 3Q25 results meet expectations with GAAP net profit/core net profit growing 58%/19% yoy and 6%/24% qoq to Rmb3.82b/Rmb3.96b respectively. Earnings growth will be driven by a strong product cycle, optimisation of sales mix, penetration into overseas markets, and consolidation of its brand portfolios. We maintain our 2025-27 earnings estimates. Maintain BUY with an unchanged target price of HK$42.00 pegged...

Thai Oil (TOP TB) - 3Q25: Net Profit Down qoq

Company Results | Thai Oil (TOP TB/HOLD/Bt34.75/Target: Bt34.00) TOP reported a 3Q25 net profit of Bt2.1b, down 67% qoq, beating our and consensus expectations. However, core earnings in 3Q25 were a Bt1.1b loss due to a decrease in market GRM and a lower utilisation rate caused by the refinery's CDU Unit 3 maintenance shutdown. Core earnings are expected to recover in 4Q25, driven by higher utilisation rates and GRM. Upgrade to HOLD. Target price: Bt34.00 (previously Bt31.00).

Thailand Daily: Monday, November 10, 2025

Top Stories Company Results | Dohome (DOHOME TB/BUY/Bt3.66/Target: Bt5.00) 3Q25 earnings increased yoy, beating our and consensus forecasts due to lower-than-expected SG&A expenses. Gross margin spiked impressively thanks to higher margins across all categories. 4QTD SSSG was better than in 3Q25. The recovery was mainly seen in the wholesale segment. Maintain BUY and a target price of Bt5.00. Company Results | Thai Oil (TOP TB/HOLD/Bt34.75/Target: Bt34.00) TOP reported a 3Q25 net profit of Bt...

Asia Monthly – October 2025 In Review - Lucror Analytics

In our latest Asia Monthly, we discuss the performance of major Asian credit indices and review UST curve movements in October 2025. We also provide a recap of major news and macroeconomic releases, including those from the US, China, India, Indonesia and Japan. In addition, we summarise the top/bottom performers, recent USD bond issuances and rating actions in Asian corporate credit, as well as a list of our recent research. The Asia Monthly publication serves to keep investors updated on d...

Asia Trade Book - October 2025 - Lucror Analytics

The Asia Trade Book for October 2025 includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as relative-value charts. Please reach out to our analysts to discuss any of these ideas, or other trade recommendations from our Asia coverage.

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Thai Oil, Genting Berhad, Nickel Industries, Meituan

Thai Oil (TOP TB) - Lower GRM Pressures 3Q25 Net Profit

Company Update | Thai Oil (TOP TB/SELL/Bt36.00/Target: Bt31.00) We expect TOP’s 3Q25 net profit to decline qoq, as a lower market GRM and reduced utilisation rate should result in an anticipated core loss for the quarter. However, core earnings are expected to rebound qoq in 4Q25, supported by seasonal demand and the absence of maintenance activities. The perpetual bond issuance remains on schedule and is anticipated to be completed in early-26. Consequently, we have revised down our 2025 earn...

Thailand Daily - Friday, October 24, 2025

Top Stories Sector Update | Banking Banks under our coverage reported a combined net profit of Bt62.2b, up 14% yoy and 10% qoq, beating our expectation by 23% and the market's estimate by 13%. The key reason it exceeded expectations was an investment income that surpassed forecasts. All banks have reiterated their focus on asset quality and clean loan portfolios. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Our top picks are KBANK and KTB. Company Update | Berli Jucker (BJC TB/BUY/Bt19.70/Target: Bt24.00) BJ...

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Friday, October 24, 2025

Greater China Sector Update | Automobile The escalating China-US trade tensions have triggered a dual crisis in chips and rare earth, potentially disrupting the global auto supply chain like that seen in 2021-22. China's auto sector sees short-term gains from domestic prioritisation but long-term risks. Chinese auto part companies may see a revenue loss in 4Q25 if the issue is not resolved in a month. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL and Geely. Top SELLs: BYD and Li Auto. Sector Upda...

Thai Oil - ESG Report - Lucror Analytics

Thai Oil - Tear Sheet - Lucror Analytics

We view Thai Oil Public Company Limited (TOP) as "Low Risk" on the LARA scale. This is primarily driven by the company's strategic importance to state-owned PTT Public Company Limited, due to its position as the group's main oil refining vehicle. TOP benefits from its close links with PTT, as TOP obtains feedstock from and sells refined products to its parent. In addition, TOP can obtain credit term extensions from PTT for crude oil purchases, which would support TOP's working capital. TOP o...

Thai Oil (TOP TB) - Clearer Details On CFP Project Are To Be Known By ...

3Q25 core earnings are projected to decrease qoq and yoy, pressured by softer market GRM, maintenance shutdown of its key refinery unit as well as aromatics and lube base plants, and higher opex costs. Clearer details on the CFP project are to be known by this November. Given the gloomy outlook for 2H25, we maintain SELL on TOP (Target price: Bt30.00) and switch to OR, SCGP and IVL instead.

Thailand Daily - Tuesday, August 19, 2025

KEY HIGHLIGHTS Update Asset World Corporation (AWC TB/BUY/Bt2.44/Target: Bt3.30) Outlook to improve in 4Q25. Thai Oil (TOP TB/SELL/Bt34.00/Target: Bt30.00) Clearer details on CFP are to be known by this November.

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Tuesday, August 19, 2025

GREATER CHINA Strategy Small-Mid Cap Monthly: Keeping an eye on JBM Healthcare’s upcoming marketing campaigns in 2H25. Results China Resources Building Materials Technology (1313 HK/BUY/HK$1.92/Target: HK$2.30): 1H25: In line; cement margins rebound, concrete delivers growth. Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group Company (3692 HK/BUY/HK$37.06/Target: HK$50.00): 1H25: Results beat; increases revenue growth guidance to high double-digit. Sino Biopharmaceutical (1177 HK/BUY/HK$7.91/Target: HK$10.50): 1H25: R...

Thai Oil (TOP TB) - 2Q25: Net Profit Boosted By Strong Market GRM

TOP reported a 2Q25 net profit of Bt6.5b, up both qoq and yoy, better than our and consensus estimates by 20% and 27% respectively, and driven by larger-than-expected extra items. Core earnings also improved qoq and yoy in 2Q25, supported by robust market GRM. Looking forward, core earnings in 3Q35 are projected to decrease qoq and yoy, pressured by softer market GRM and reduced refinery utilisation from maintenance shutdowns. Downgrade to SELL. Target price: Bt30.00.

Thailand Daily - Thursday, August 14, 2025

KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Amata Corporation (AMATA TB/BUY/Bt16.50/Target: Bt25.00) 2Q25: Earnings below expectations. AP Thailand (AP TB/BUY/Bt7.65/Target: Bt9.60) 2Q25: Earnings in line, optimistic 3Q25 outlook. Bangkok Commercial Asset Management (BAM TB/BUY/Bt8.40/Target: Bt10.00) 2Q25: Results in line with consensus; highest bottom line in the past 22 quarters. Bangkok Dusit Medical Services (BDMS TB/BUY...

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Thursday, August 14, 2025

GREATER CHINA Economics Money Supply Credit demand remains weak, though money supply improved. Results Nexteer Automotive Group (1316 HK/BUY/HK$6.92/Target: HK$10.00) 1H25: Earnings beat estimates on margins. Upgrade from HOLD to BUY. Raise target price to HK$10.00 Tencent Holdings (700 HK/BUY/HK$586.00/Target: HK$736.00) 2Q25: Resilient results; unfolding AI monetisation in online games...