reports
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
Thai Oil (TOP TB) - CFP Project Is Still An Overhang
TOP is moving forward with the CFP project and expects to appoint a new main contractor by end-3Q25. In the short term, the CFP project remains a potential overhang for the share price, alongside an upcoming credit rating review scheduled for Aug 25. However, management has outlined plans to mitigate the risk of a rating downgrade. Looking ahead, refining margins remain robust but could be tempered by weak spreads in aromatics. Maintain HOLD. Target price: Bt27.00.
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Chong Lee Len
- Colin Lee
- Ejann Hiew
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Kampon Akaravarinchai
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
- Tanapon Cholkadidamrongkul
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
- Willinoy Sitorus
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Monday, May 19, 2025
GREATER CHINA Update Foxconn Industrial Internet (601138 CH/BUY/Rmb19.22/Target: Rmb25.30) 2Q25 guidance in line; GB200/GB300 smooth production ramp as the key driver for 2025-26. Maintain BUY. INDONESIA Strategy JCI rallies from global tailwinds Market rebound gains momentum amid global tailwinds and rate cut hopes. MALAYSIA Results Maxis (MAXIS MK/BUY/RM3.76/Target: RM4.20) 1Q25: Strong set of results; earnings d...
ERW ERAWAN GROUP
TOP THAI OIL PUBLIC CO. LTD.
PLANB PLAN B MEDIA
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
C6L SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD.
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
BCH BANGKOK CHAIN HOSPITAL PCL
MAXIS MAXIS BHD
ICBP INDOFOOD CBP SUKSES MAKMUR T
601138 FOXCONN INDUSTRIAL INTERNET CO. LTD. CLASS A
BBTN BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA PERSERO TBK PT
BRIS BANK BRISYARIAH TBK
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
MDKA MERDEKA COPPER GOLD TBK PT
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
Thai Oil (TOP TB) - 1Q25: Net Profit In Line With Our Expectations
TOP reported a 1Q25 net profit of Bt3.5b, up 27% qoq. This is in line with our forecast and 7% above the consensus estimate. The earnings were supported by a stock gain of Bt1.1b, which helped offset the impact of a weaker market GRM. However, core profit declined both qoq and yoy, reflecting the drop in market GIM. Looking ahead, core profit in 2Q25 is expected to decline qoq. Our core profit forecast for 2025 remains unchanged. Maintain HOLD. Target price: Bt27.00.
- Arsit Pamaranont
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Kampon Akaravarinchai
- Tanapon Cholkadidamrongkul
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
- Thailand Research Team
Thailand Daily - Tuesday, May 13, 2025
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Strategy US-China Negotiations Progress in Geneva, Switzerland. Positive sign for trade negotiations from US and China. Results Banpu (BANPU TB/HOLD/Bt4.90/Target: Bt4.80) 1Q25: Net loss narrows qoq. Indorama Ventures (IVL TB/BUY/Bt20.40/Target: Bt24.00) 1Q25: Weak quarter, but recovery in sight. Thai Oil (TOP TB/HOLD/Bt27.25/Target: Bt27.00) 1Q25: Net profit in line with our expectations. Update Asset World...
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Chong Lee Len
- Damon Shen
- Heidi Mo Jinghui
- Jieqi Liu
- Jonathan Koh
- Kampon Akaravarinchai
- Kitpon Praipaisarnkit
- Kong Ho Meng
- Krit Tanarattananon
- Llelleythan Tan Tan
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
- Tanapon Cholkadidamrongkul
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
- Thailand Research Team
Regional Morning Notes - Tuesday, May 13, 2025
GREATER CHINA Strategy China And Hong Kong Property: Channel check of Shanghai’s primary residential market; closer look at Hong Kong properties’ rental yields. MALAYSIA Results Westports Holdings (WPRTS MK/HOLD/RM4.53/Target: RM4.40): 1Q25: Results in line. WPRTS believes global acclimation towards tariff impact will rebalance trades; maintaining its 0-5% volume growth expectation. SINGAPORE Sector Banking: 1Q25 round-up: First-order direct impact assessed to be manageable. Upgrade to OVERWE...
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
Thai Oil (TOP TB) -1Q25 Net Profit Expected To Increase qoq
We estimate TOP’s 1Q25 net profit at Bt3.5b, up 25% qoq but down 41% yoy. The quarterly increase will be primarily driven by a significant stock gain, which will more than offset the decline in market GRM. However, core profit should decline both qoq and yoy, reflecting a weaker market GIM. 2Q25 core profit is expected to remain flat qoq. We keep our core profit forecast for 2025 unchanged. Maintain HOLD. Target price: Bt27.00.
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Kampon Akaravarinchai
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
Thailand Daily - Thursday, April 24, 2025
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Update Betagro (BTG TB/BUY/Bt21.40/Target: Bt28.50) Strong 1Q25 earnings momentum on a qoq basis. Major Cineplex (MAJOR TB/HOLD/Bt10.30/Target: Bt10.00) 1Q25 earnings likely to disappoint. Downgrade to HOLD. Thai Oil (TOP TB/HOLD/Bt24.70/Target: Bt27.00) 1Q25 net profit expected to increase qoq. WHA Corporation (WHA TB/BUY/Bt2.90/Target: Bt4.80) 1Q25 results preview: Expect strong ear...
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Benyamin Mikael
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Chong Lee Len
- Colin Lee
- Jo Yee Ng
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Jonathan Koh
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Kampon Akaravarinchai
- Ken Lee
- Ming San Soong
- Sunny Chen
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Thursday, April 24, 2025
GREATER CHINA Results Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology (002709 CH/BUY/Rmb17.19/Target: Rmb39.60) 1Q25: Earnings beat on revenue; raise target price from Rmb18.00 to Rmb39.60. Upgrade to BUY. New Oriental Education & Technology Group (EDU US/BUY/US$43.38/Target: US$60.00) 3QFY25: Earnings miss; subdued top-line but solid margin outlook in 4QFY25. Ping An Healthcare and Technology Company (1833 HK/BUY/HK$7.15/Target:HK$11.00) 1Q25: Results beat; maintains double-digit revenue growth target for...
N1U NEW ORIENTAL EDUCATION & TECHNOLOGY GROUP INC. SPONSORED ADR
TOP THAI OIL PUBLIC CO. LTD.
INCO VALE INDONESIA
002709 GUANGZHOU TINCI MATERIALS TECHNOLOGY CO LTD CLASS A
KREIT KEPPEL REIT
IGBREIT IGB REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT T
0763 ZTE CORPORATION CLASS H
1833 PING AN HEALTHCARE AND TECHNOLOGY COMPANY LIMITED
WHA TB WHA CORP PCL
PEKAT PEKAT GROUP BHD
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
Thai Oil (TOP TB) - CFP Project Details Expected To Be Clearer From 2Q...
TOP’s management expects the CFP project details to be clearer from 2Q25, particularly the source of additional investment approved at the shareholders' meeting on 21 Feb 25. They remain confident that a capital increase will not be necessary. The CFP project is expected to achieve full COD in 3Q28 while the performance bond will be recognised in 1Q25. Oil prices and GRM continue to face pressure due to weak demand. Maintain HOLD. Target price: Bt27.00.
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Kampon Akaravarinchai
- Kitpon Praipaisarnkit
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
Thailand Daily - Tuesday, February 25, 2025
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results COM7 (COM7 TB/BUY/Bt21.60/Target: Bt29.00) 4Q24: Better-than-expected earnings. Upgrade to BUY. KCE Electronics (KCE TB/BUY/Bt20.60/Target: Bt28.00) 4Q24: Results below estimates. Update Major Cineplex (MAJOR TB/BUY/Bt13.10/Target: Bt16.00) Thai film industry is experiencing positive momentum. Thai Oil (TOP TB/HOLD/Bt25.25/Target: Bt27.00) CFP ...
- Anas Fitri Bin Ahmad
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Chong Lee Len
- Damon Shen
- Heidi Mo Jinghui
- Jieqi Liu
- John Cheong Ming Chern
- Johnny Yum
- Kampon Akaravarinchai
- Kitpon Praipaisarnkit
- Llelleythan Tan Tan
- Philip Wong
- Stevanus Juanda
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
- Wei Xiang Ku
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Tuesday, February 25, 2025
GREATER CHINA Sector Property Channel checks and observations of Shenzhen and Shanghai primary markets. INDONESIA Strategy Danantara – Who Could Benefit Beneficiaries: PGEO, ANTM, TINS, BMRI, BBNI, BBRI and TLKM. We have an end-25 target of 7,500 for the JCI. MALAYSIA Results 99 Speed Mart Retail (99SMART MK/BUY/RM2.14/Target: RM2.60) 4Q24: Delivers on earnings...
00688 CHINA OVERSEAS LAND & INVESTMENT LIMITED
CC3 STARHUB LTD
ANTM PT ANEKA TAMBANG TBK
01109 CHINA RESOURCES LAND LIMITED
BBRI PT BANK RAKYAT INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
TOP THAI OIL PUBLIC CO. LTD.
4197 SIME DARBY BHD.
SCNR SUNAC CHINA HOLDINGS LTD.
RLF LONGFOR GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
TLKM PT TELKOM INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
KCE KCE ELECTRONICS PUBLIC CO. LTD.
RFMD RAFFLES MEDICAL GROUP LTD
TGIF 1933 INDUSTRIES
RSTON RIVERSTONE HOLDINGS LTD
CTOS CTOS DIGITAL BHD
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
PGEO PERTAMINA GEOTHERMAL ENERGY
99SMART 99 SPEED MART RETAIL HOLDINGS BHD
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
Thai Oil (TOP TB) - 4Q24: Net Profit Rebounds qoq
TOP reported a stronger-than-expected 4Q24 net profit. However, core profit aligned with our expectation, with the earnings rebound primarily driven by a recovery in market GRM. Despite this, overall 2024 net profit declined 49% yoy. Concerns over the CFP will continue to pressure TOP’s share price recovery. Additionally, TOP plans to hold an EGM on 21 Feb 25 to seek approval for more investment in the CFP. Maintain HOLD. Target price: Bt27.00.
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Kampon Akaravarinchai
- Kitpon Praipaisarnkit
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
Thailand Daily - Monday, February 17, 2025
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Delta Electronics (DELTA TB/SELL/Bt113.00/Target: Bt99.00) 4Q24: Huge earnings miss on lower GPM and higher SG&A-to-sales. Downgrade to SELL. I-TAIL Corporation (ITC TB/BUY/Bt18.00/Target: Bt23.00) 4Q24: Undemanding valuation with high dividend yield. Upgrade to BUY. Thai Oil (TOP TB/HOLD/Bt24.60/Target: Bt27.00) 4Q24: Net profit rebounds qoq. Update Airports of Thailand (AOT TB/HOLD/Bt47.00/Target: Bt52.00) Uncertainty aris...
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Chong Lee Len
- Claire Wang Kelai
- Heidi Mo Jinghui
- John Cheong Ming Chern
- Jonathan Koh
- Kampon Akaravarinchai
- Kitpon Praipaisarnkit
- Llelleythan Tan Tan
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
- Tham Mun Hon
Regional Morning Notes - Monday, February 17, 2025
GREATER CHINA Economics Money Supply: Liquidity growth edges lower. INDONESIA Update Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ/BUY/Rp3,860/Target: Rp4,500): 15.0% net profit cut in 2025 on higher credit cost and lower loan growth. MALAYSIA Update Gas Malaysia (GMB MK/HOLD/RM4.23/Target: RM4.40): Expect a strong 4Q24 finish. Share price is close to our fair value; downgrade to HOLD. The stock offers a 6% dividend yield. SINGAPORE Results Civmec (CIVMEC SP/HOLD/S$0.895/Target:S$0.98): 1HFY25: Results belo...
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
Thai Oil (TOP TB) - 4Q24 Net Profit Expected To Recover Qoq
We expect a 4Q24 net profit of Bt2.3b, with qoq recovery driven by improved GRM and no stock loss like in 3Q24. However, we expect 1Q25 core profit to decline qoq due to lower GRM and weaker aromatics spread. Concerns over the CFP will continue to pressure TOP’s share price recovery. Additionally, TOP plans to hold an EGM on 21 Feb 25 to seek approval for more investment in the CFP. Maintain HOLD. Target price: Bt27.00.
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Chong Lee Len
- Colin Lee
- Damon Shen
- Jieqi Liu
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Jonathan Koh
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ken Lee
- Kong Ho Meng
- Ming San Soong
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Stevanus Juanda
- Sunny Chen
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Friday, January 17, 2025
GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile Weekly: PV sales down 10% yoy but up 8.5% wow; EVs gain on subsidy rollout. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: Geely, CATL, Fuyao and Desay. Healthcare The challenging but rewarding journey of globalisation amid rising geopolitical risks. Internet ...
GRU GEELY AUTOMOBILE HOLDINGS LIMITED
00992 LENOVO GROUP LIMITED
ASM PACIFIC TECHNOLOGY LIMITED
D05 DBS GROUP HOLDINGS LTD
01093 CSPC PHARMACEUTICAL GROUP LIMITED
UNTR PT UNITED TRACTORS TBK
U11 UNITED OVERSEAS BANK LTD. (SINGAPORE)
TOP THAI OIL PUBLIC CO. LTD.
01177 SINO BIOPHARMACEUTICAL LIMITED
EGH EUREKA GROUP HOLDINGS
O39 OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORPORATION LIMITED
M3I MINTH GROUP LIMITED
601888 CHINA TOURISM GROUP DUTY FREE CORPORATION LIMITED CLASS A
002340 GEM CO. LTD. CLASS A
5Z0 ZHONGSHENG GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
01316 NEXTEER AUTOMOTIVE GROUP LIMITED
002709 GUANGZHOU TINCI MATERIALS TECHNOLOGY CO LTD CLASS A
00700 TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD.
601689 NINGBO TUOPU GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
02669 CHINA OVERSEAS PROPERTY HOLDINGS LIMITED
01585 YADEA GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
2333 GREAT WALL MOTOR CO. LTD. CLASS H
1211 BYD COMPANY LIMITED CLASS H
2338 WEICHAI POWER CO. LTD. CLASS H
AXIATA AXIATA GROUP BERHAD
02238 GUANGZHOU AUTOMOBILE GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS H
3933 THE UNITED LABORATORIES INTE
WPRTS WESTPORTS HOLDINGS BHD
HCM HUTCHISON CHINA MEDITECH LIMITED
06098 COUNTRY GARDEN SERVICES HOLDINGS CO. LTD.
01801 INNOVENT BIOLOGICS INC.
TGIF 1933 INDUSTRIES
1772 GANFENG LITHIUM CO. LTD. CLASS H
601138 FOXCONN INDUSTRIAL INTERNET CO. LTD. CLASS A
300750 CONTEMPORARY AMPEREX TECHNOLOGY CO. LTD. CLASS A
6049 POLY PROPERTY SERVICES CO LTD
3606 FUYAO GLASS INDUSTRY GROUP CO LTD-H
603305 NINGBO XUSHENG AUTO TECHNOLOGY (A)
09999 NETEASE INC
01209 CHINA RESOURCES MIXC LIFESTYLE SERVICES (RED CHIP)
3692 HANSOH PHARMACEUTICAL GROUP
06160 BEIGENE LTD.
002920 HUIZHOU DESAY SV AUTOMOTIVE CO LTD
300765 CSPC INNOVATION PHARMACEUTICAL CO L
Z29 029 GROUP SE
02015 LI AUTO INC
600699 JOYSON ELECTRONICS CORP
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
Thai Oil (TOP TB) - Announces Additional Investment In CFP And Postpon...
TOP's board of directors has approved an increase of the investment cost of US$1.78b in the CFP which has been delayed to 3Q28. An EGM is scheduled on 21 February to seek shareholder approval for the increased investment. We expect the higher investment cost to raise total costs by US$1.00/bbl. However, we hold a negative view due to persistent uncertainties surrounding the project. Maintain HOLD with a lower target price of Bt27.00.
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Kitpon Praipaisarnkit
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Desmond Chong Chee Wai
- Johnny Yum
- Jonathan Koh
- Kitpon Praipaisarnkit
- Malaysia Research Team
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
- Stevanus Juanda
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
- Vincent Khoo Boo Aik
Regional Morning Notes - Monday, January 06, 2025
GREATER CHINA Sector Shipping And Ports: Expect 2025 to be a volatile year, with several geopolitical and industrial events posing key uncertainties. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. BUY CSP, CMP and OOIL. INDONESIA Strategy 2024 JCI Return Analysis: Our top picks are ASII, BMRI, BBNI, BRIS, CMRY, KLBF, SMRA, ACES and GOTO. We have an end-25 target of 8,200 for the JCI. MALAYSIA Strategy 1H25 Strategy: The FBMKLCI should again deliver energising returns in 2025, charged up mainly by domestic liquidity ...
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