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Felix Fischer
  • Felix Fischer

Asia Trade Book - October 2025 - Lucror Analytics

The Asia Trade Book for October 2025 includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as relative-value charts. Please reach out to our analysts to discuss any of these ideas, or other trade recommendations from our Asia coverage.

DZJ COUNTRY GARDEN HOLDINGS CO. LTD.
M04 MGM CHINA HOLDINGS LIMITED
MAS MELCO RESORTS & ENTERTAINMENT LIMITED SPONSORED ADR
JSWSTEEL JSW STEEL LIMITED
00813 SHIMAO GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED
XGH CHINA WATER AFFAIRS GROUP LIMITED
00817 ENN ENERGY HOLDINGS LIMITED
CHINA JINMAO HOLDINGS GROUP LIMITED
01238 CENTRAL CHINA REAL ESTATE LIMITED
00992 POWERLONG REAL ESTATE HOLDINGS LTD.
VED LENOVO GROUP LIMITED
02777 VEDANTA RESOURCES PLC
03383 GUANGZHOU R&F PROPERTIES CO. LTD. CLASS H
TATASTEEL AGILE GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED
4755 TATA STEEL LIMITED
MEDC RAKUTEN INC.
ICT PT MEDCO ENERGI INTERNASIONAL TBK
01098 INTERNATIONAL CONTAINER TERMINAL SERVICES INC.
TOP ROAD KING INFRASTRUCTURE LIMITED
00603 THAI OIL PUBLIC CO. LTD.
OL5 CHINA OIL & GAS GROUP LTD.
Z25 SHUI ON LAND LTD.
SXC YANLORD LAND GROUP LIMITED
03377 SUNNY OPTICAL TECHNOLOGY (GROUP) CO. LTD.
00880 SINO-OCEAN GROUP HOLDING LTD.
INDY SJM HOLDINGS LIMITED
8WY PT INDIKA ENERGY TBK
WFG1 WYNN MACAU LTD.
01030 WEST CHINA CEMENT LTD.
00884 SEAZEN GROUP LTD.
JPFA CIFI HOLDINGS (GROUP) CO. LTD.
00142 JAPFA COMFEED INDONESIA
600803 FIRST PACIFIC CO. LTD.
JFC ENN ECOLOGICAL HOLDINGS (A)
7201 JOLLIBEE FOODS CORP.
KIJA NISSAN MOTOR CO. LTD.
BIOCON PT KAWASAN INDUSTRI JABABEKA TBK CLASS A
9984 BIOCON LIMITED
SM SOFTBANK GROUP CORP.
00405 SM INVESTMENTS CORPORATION
KOU YUEXIU REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST
VLL KWG GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED
00656 VISTA LAND & LIFESCAPES INC.
ADANIPORTS FOSUN INTERNATIONAL LIMITED
PWON ADANI PORTS & SPECIAL ECONOMIC ZONE LTD.
ICBP PT PAKUWON JATI TBK
TBIG PT INDOFOOD CBP SUKSES MAKMUR TBK
599A PT TOWER BERSAMA INFRASTRUCTURE TBK
TATAMOTORS SANDS CHINA LTD.
ADANITRANS TATA MOTORS LIMITED
POWR ADANI TRANSMISSION LTD.
AZRE PT CIKARANG LISTRINDO TBK
01112 AZURE POWER GLOBAL LTD.
VHM HEALTH AND HAPPINESS (H&H) INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS LIMITED
MSC VINHOMES
ADANIGREEN STUDIO CITY INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS ADS
00017 ADANI GREEN ENERGY LIMITED
RNW NEW WORLD DEVELOPMENT CO. LTD.
PGEO RENEW ENERGY GLOBAL PLC
PT. PERTAMINA GEOTHERMAL ENERGY
Leonard Law ... (+2)
  • Leonard Law
  • Trung Nguyen

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Thai Oil, Genting Berhad, Nickel Industries, Meituan

Benjaphol Suthwanish ... (+2)
  • Benjaphol Suthwanish
  • Tanaporn Visaruthaphong

Thai Oil (TOP TB) - Lower GRM Pressures 3Q25 Net Profit

Company Update | Thai Oil (TOP TB/SELL/Bt36.00/Target: Bt31.00) We expect TOP’s 3Q25 net profit to decline qoq, as a lower market GRM and reduced utilisation rate should result in an anticipated core loss for the quarter. However, core earnings are expected to rebound qoq in 4Q25, supported by seasonal demand and the absence of maintenance activities. The perpetual bond issuance remains on schedule and is anticipated to be completed in early-26. Consequently, we have revised down our 2025 earn...

Benjaphol Suthwanish ... (+4)
  • Benjaphol Suthwanish
  • Tanapon Cholkadidamrongkul
  • Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
  • Thanawat Thangchadakorn

Thailand Daily - Friday, October 24, 2025

Top Stories Sector Update | Banking Banks under our coverage reported a combined net profit of Bt62.2b, up 14% yoy and 10% qoq, beating our expectation by 23% and the market's estimate by 13%. The key reason it exceeded expectations was an investment income that surpassed forecasts. All banks have reiterated their focus on asset quality and clean loan portfolios. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Our top picks are KBANK and KTB. Company Update | Berli Jucker (BJC TB/BUY/Bt19.70/Target: Bt24.00) BJ...

Adrian Loh Tzum Yung ... (+22)
  • Adrian Loh Tzum Yung
  • Andrew Agita Buntoro
  • Bella Lu Yifei
  • Benjaphol Suthwanish
  • Carol Dou Xiao Qin
  • Damon Shen
  • Desmond Chong Chee Wai
  • Gigi Cheuk
  • Jieqi Liu
  • Jo Yee Ng
  • Jonathan Koh
  • Joyce Chu
  • Kate Luang
  • Ken Lee
  • Malaysia Research Team
  • Sunny Chen
  • Suryaputra Wijaksana
  • Tanapon Cholkadidamrongkul
  • Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
  • Thanawat Thangchadakorn
  • Vincent Khoo Boo Aik
  • Willinoy Sitorus

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Friday, October 24, 2025

Greater China Sector Update | Automobile The escalating China-US trade tensions have triggered a dual crisis in chips and rare earth, potentially disrupting the global auto supply chain like that seen in 2021-22. China's auto sector sees short-term gains from domestic prioritisation but long-term risks. Chinese auto part companies may see a revenue loss in 4Q25 if the issue is not resolved in a month. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL and Geely. Top SELLs: BYD and Li Auto. Sector Upda...

BJC BERLI JUCKER PUBLIC CO. LTD.
300014 EVE ENERGY CO. LTD. CLASS A
GRU GEELY AUTOMOBILE HOLDINGS LIMITED
KKP KIATNAKIN BANK
00683 KERRY PROPERTIES LIMITED
00016 SUN HUNG KAI PROPERTIES LIMITED
FCT FRASERS CENTREPOINT TRUST
00823 LINK REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST
BBL BANGKOK BANK PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
KTB KRUNG THAI BANK PUBLIC CO. LTD.
TOP THAI OIL PUBLIC CO. LTD.
U96 SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD.
TISCO TISCO FINANCIAL GROUP
GFPT GFPT
00014 HYSAN DEVELOPMENT CO. LTD.
TMB TMB BANK PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
KBANK KASIKORNBANK PUBLIC CO. LTD.
EGH EUREKA GROUP HOLDINGS
M3I MINTH GROUP LIMITED
002340 GEM CO. LTD. CLASS A
5Z0 ZHONGSHENG GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
01316 NEXTEER AUTOMOTIVE GROUP LIMITED
TLKM PT TELKOM INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
002709 GUANGZHOU TINCI MATERIALS TECHNOLOGY CO LTD CLASS A
601689 NINGBO TUOPU GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
01585 YADEA GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
2333 GREAT WALL MOTOR CO. LTD. CLASS H
1211 BYD COMPANY LIMITED CLASS H
2338 WEICHAI POWER CO. LTD. CLASS H
01997 WHARF REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT CO. LTD.
02238 GUANGZHOU AUTOMOBILE GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS H
T TELEKOM MALAYSIA BHD
ECW ECO WORLD DEVELOPMENT GROUP
1833 PING AN HEALTHCARE AND TECHNOLOGY COMPANY LIMITED
1772 GANFENG LITHIUM CO. LTD. CLASS H
300750 CONTEMPORARY AMPEREX TECHNOLOGY CO. LTD. CLASS A
3606 FUYAO GLASS INDUSTRY GROUP CO LTD-H
603305 NINGBO XUSHENG AUTO TECHNOLOGY (A)
00017 NEW WORLD DEVELOPMENT CO. LTD.
002920 HUIZHOU DESAY SV AUTOMOTIVE CO LTD
SCB SCB X PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
2232 CRYSTAL INTERNATIONAL GROUP LTD
Z29 029 GROUP SE
02015 LI AUTO INC
300244 DIAN DIAGNOSTICS GROUP CO
600699 JOYSON ELECTRONICS CORP
Leonard Law
  • Leonard Law

Thai Oil - Tear Sheet - Lucror Analytics

We view Thai Oil Public Company Limited (TOP) as "Low Risk" on the LARA scale. This is primarily driven by the company's strategic importance to state-owned PTT Public Company Limited, due to its position as the group's main oil refining vehicle. TOP benefits from its close links with PTT, as TOP obtains feedstock from and sells refined products to its parent. In addition, TOP can obtain credit term extensions from PTT for crude oil purchases, which would support TOP's working capital. TOP o...

Benjaphol Suthwanish ... (+2)
  • Benjaphol Suthwanish
  • Tanaporn Visaruthaphong

Thai Oil (TOP TB) - Clearer Details On CFP Project Are To Be Known By ...

3Q25 core earnings are projected to decrease qoq and yoy, pressured by softer market GRM, maintenance shutdown of its key refinery unit as well as aromatics and lube base plants, and higher opex costs. Clearer details on the CFP project are to be known by this November. Given the gloomy outlook for 2H25, we maintain SELL on TOP (Target price: Bt30.00) and switch to OR, SCGP and IVL instead.

Benjaphol Suthwanish ... (+2)
  • Benjaphol Suthwanish
  • Tanaporn Visaruthaphong

Thailand Daily - Tuesday, August 19, 2025

KEY HIGHLIGHTS Update Asset World Corporation (AWC TB/BUY/Bt2.44/Target: Bt3.30) Outlook to improve in 4Q25. Thai Oil (TOP TB/SELL/Bt34.00/Target: Bt30.00) Clearer details on CFP are to be known by this November.

Adrian Loh Tzum Yung ... (+19)
  • Adrian Loh Tzum Yung
  • Benjaphol Suthwanish
  • Carol Dou Xiao Qin
  • Chong Lee Len
  • Claire Wang Kelai
  • Ejann Hiew
  • Gigi Cheuk
  • Jonathan Koh
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Kate Luang
  • Keith Wee Teck Keong
  • Ming San Soong
  • Philip Wong
  • Shirley Wang Xueyi
  • Stella Guo Yuting
  • Sunny Chen
  • Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
  • Willinoy Sitorus
  • Ziv Ang Sze Champ

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Tuesday, August 19, 2025

GREATER CHINA Strategy Small-Mid Cap Monthly: Keeping an eye on JBM Healthcare’s upcoming marketing campaigns in 2H25. Results China Resources Building Materials Technology (1313 HK/BUY/HK$1.92/Target: HK$2.30): 1H25: In line; cement margins rebound, concrete delivers growth. Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group Company (3692 HK/BUY/HK$37.06/Target: HK$50.00): 1H25: Results beat; increases revenue growth guidance to high double-digit. Sino Biopharmaceutical (1177 HK/BUY/HK$7.91/Target: HK$10.50): 1H25: R...

Benjaphol Suthwanish ... (+2)
  • Benjaphol Suthwanish
  • Tanaporn Visaruthaphong

Thai Oil (TOP TB) - 2Q25: Net Profit Boosted By Strong Market GRM

TOP reported a 2Q25 net profit of Bt6.5b, up both qoq and yoy, better than our and consensus estimates by 20% and 27% respectively, and driven by larger-than-expected extra items. Core earnings also improved qoq and yoy in 2Q25, supported by robust market GRM. Looking forward, core earnings in 3Q35 are projected to decrease qoq and yoy, pressured by softer market GRM and reduced refinery utilisation from maintenance shutdowns. Downgrade to SELL. Target price: Bt30.00.

Arsit Pamaranont ... (+6)
  • Arsit Pamaranont
  • Benjaphol Suthwanish
  • Kasemsun Koonnara
  • Tanapon Cholkadidamrongkul
  • Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
  • Thanawat Thangchadakorn

Thailand Daily - Thursday, August 14, 2025

KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Amata Corporation (AMATA TB/BUY/Bt16.50/Target: Bt25.00) 2Q25: Earnings below expectations. AP Thailand (AP TB/BUY/Bt7.65/Target: Bt9.60) 2Q25: Earnings in line, optimistic 3Q25 outlook. Bangkok Commercial Asset Management (BAM TB/BUY/Bt8.40/Target: Bt10.00) 2Q25: Results in line with consensus; highest bottom line in the past 22 quarters. Bangkok Dusit Medical Services (BDMS TB/BUY...

Adrian Loh Tzum Yung ... (+17)
  • Adrian Loh Tzum Yung
  • Bella Lu Yifei
  • Benjaphol Suthwanish
  • Benyamin Mikael
  • Chong Lee Len
  • Claire Wang Kelai
  • Desmond Chong Chee Wai
  • John Cheong Ming Chern
  • Jonathan Koh
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Ken Lee
  • Ming San Soong
  • Philip Wong
  • Tanapon Cholkadidamrongkul
  • Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
  • Tham Mun Hon
  • Wei Xiang Ku

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Thursday, August 14, 2025

GREATER CHINA Economics Money Supply Credit demand remains weak, though money supply improved. Results Nexteer Automotive Group (1316 HK/BUY/HK$6.92/Target: HK$10.00) 1H25: Earnings beat estimates on margins. Upgrade from HOLD to BUY. Raise target price to HK$10.00 Tencent Holdings (700 HK/BUY/HK$586.00/Target: HK$736.00) 2Q25: Resilient results; unfolding AI monetisation in online games...

Benjaphol Suthwanish ... (+2)
  • Benjaphol Suthwanish
  • Tanaporn Visaruthaphong

Thai Oil (TOP TB) - Strong Market GIM To Support 2Q25 Net Profit Estim...

We forecast TOP’s 2Q25 net profit at Bt5.4b, up qoq, supported by strong market GIM and sizeable one-time gains that should more than offset inventory losses. However, core profit in 3Q25 is projected to decline both qoq and yoy, due to a weaker market GRM and reduced refinery utilisation. In the near term, GRM softness and lingering uncertainty around the unfinished CFP project remain key headwinds. Maintain HOLD. Target price: Bt27.00.

Benjaphol Suthwanish ... (+2)
  • Benjaphol Suthwanish
  • Tanaporn Visaruthaphong

Thailand Daily - Thursday, July 17, 2025

KEY HIGHLIGHTS Update Bumrungrad Hospital (BH TB/HOLD/Bt145.00/Target: Bt145.00) More overhangs to result in weak earnings in 2Q25. Thai Oil (TOP TB/HOLD/Bt29.00/Target: Bt27.00) Strong market GIM to support 2Q25 net profit estimate.

Alden Gabriel Lam ... (+11)
  • Alden Gabriel Lam
  • Benjaphol Suthwanish
  • Ejann Hiew
  • Heidi Mo Jinghui
  • John Cheong Ming Chern
  • Kong Ho Meng
  • Lester Siew
  • Posmarito Pakpahan
  • Shirley Wang Xueyi
  • Stella Guo Yuting
  • Tanaporn Visaruthaphong

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Thursday, July 17, 2025

GREATER CHINA Update Xtep International Holdings (1368 HK/BUY/HK$5.34/Target: HK$8.00) Confident in achieving full-year targets; Saucony on track to reach mid-term goal. INDONESIA Small/Mid Cap Highlights Bank KB Bukopin (BBKP IJ/NOT RATED/Rp60) Turnaround hinges on CoF reduction. MALAYSIA Update Kuala Lumpur Kepong (KLK MK/HOLD/RM20.46/Target: RM20.50) We expect 3QFY25 results to come in flat qoq, supported by firmer plantation output and lower forex ...

Benjaphol Suthwanish ... (+2)
  • Benjaphol Suthwanish
  • Tanaporn Visaruthaphong

Thai Oil (TOP TB) - CFP Project Is Still An Overhang

TOP is moving forward with the CFP project and expects to appoint a new main contractor by end-3Q25. In the short term, the CFP project remains a potential overhang for the share price, alongside an upcoming credit rating review scheduled for Aug 25. However, management has outlined plans to mitigate the risk of a rating downgrade. Looking ahead, refining margins remain robust but could be tempered by weak spreads in aromatics. Maintain HOLD. Target price: Bt27.00.

Benjaphol Suthwanish ... (+11)
  • Benjaphol Suthwanish
  • Chong Lee Len
  • Colin Lee
  • Ejann Hiew
  • Johnny Yum Chung Man
  • Kampon Akaravarinchai
  • Posmarito Pakpahan
  • Roy Chen Chengzhi
  • Tanapon Cholkadidamrongkul
  • Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
  • Willinoy Sitorus

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Monday, May 19, 2025

GREATER CHINA Update Foxconn Industrial Internet (601138 CH/BUY/Rmb19.22/Target: Rmb25.30) 2Q25 guidance in line; GB200/GB300 smooth production ramp as the key driver for 2025-26. Maintain BUY. INDONESIA Strategy JCI rallies from global tailwinds Market rebound gains momentum amid global tailwinds and rate cut hopes. MALAYSIA Results Maxis (MAXIS MK/BUY/RM3.76/Target: RM4.20) 1Q25: Strong set of results; earnings d...

Benjaphol Suthwanish ... (+2)
  • Benjaphol Suthwanish
  • Tanaporn Visaruthaphong

Thai Oil (TOP TB) - 1Q25: Net Profit In Line With Our Expectations

TOP reported a 1Q25 net profit of Bt3.5b, up 27% qoq. This is in line with our forecast and 7% above the consensus estimate. The earnings were supported by a stock gain of Bt1.1b, which helped offset the impact of a weaker market GRM. However, core profit declined both qoq and yoy, reflecting the drop in market GIM. Looking ahead, core profit in 2Q25 is expected to decline qoq. Our core profit forecast for 2025 remains unchanged. Maintain HOLD. Target price: Bt27.00.

Arsit Pamaranont ... (+6)
  • Arsit Pamaranont
  • Benjaphol Suthwanish
  • Kampon Akaravarinchai
  • Tanapon Cholkadidamrongkul
  • Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
  • Thailand Research Team

Thailand Daily - Tuesday, May 13, 2025

KEY HIGHLIGHTS Strategy US-China Negotiations Progress in Geneva, Switzerland. Positive sign for trade negotiations from US and China. Results Banpu (BANPU TB/HOLD/Bt4.90/Target: Bt4.80) 1Q25: Net loss narrows qoq. Indorama Ventures (IVL TB/BUY/Bt20.40/Target: Bt24.00) 1Q25: Weak quarter, but recovery in sight. Thai Oil (TOP TB/HOLD/Bt27.25/Target: Bt27.00) 1Q25: Net profit in line with our expectations. Update Asset World...

Benjaphol Suthwanish ... (+15)
  • Benjaphol Suthwanish
  • Chong Lee Len
  • Damon Shen
  • Heidi Mo Jinghui
  • Jieqi Liu
  • Jonathan Koh
  • Kampon Akaravarinchai
  • Kitpon Praipaisarnkit
  • Kong Ho Meng
  • Krit Tanarattananon
  • Llelleythan Tan Tan
  • Roy Chen Chengzhi
  • Tanapon Cholkadidamrongkul
  • Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
  • Thailand Research Team

Regional Morning Notes - Tuesday, May 13, 2025

GREATER CHINA Strategy China And Hong Kong Property: Channel check of Shanghai’s primary residential market; closer look at Hong Kong properties’ rental yields. MALAYSIA Results Westports Holdings (WPRTS MK/HOLD/RM4.53/Target: RM4.40): 1Q25: Results in line. WPRTS believes global acclimation towards tariff impact will rebalance trades; maintaining its 0-5% volume growth expectation. SINGAPORE Sector Banking: 1Q25 round-up: First-order direct impact assessed to be manageable. Upgrade to OVERWE...

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