reports
- Jonathan Lamb
WOOD Flash – MOL: 4Q results and 2025E guidance
MOL reported its fourth quarter results this morning (21 February), which were below expectations, and announced its guidance for 2025E. The EBITDA was 24% lower than the previous quarter, at HUF 226bn, and 16% and 18% below our and the consensus expectations, respectively. The EBITDA was affected negatively by a large CCS effect of HUF 35.5bn, related mostly to carbon emissions permit costs. This accounted for almost all of the underperformance in downstream. The circular economy segment was hi...
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: WIZZ LN; GSPARK HB; MOL HB; NLBR SV; MYTIL GA; AKCNS TI; T...
HEADLINES: • Wizz Air: knocked out, beat down, black and blue (stays BUY) • Graphisoft Park: 4Q24 results, and another strong year • MOL: 4Q24 results below expectations, posts a net loss NEGATIVE • NLB Group: bottom-line miss in 4Q24, but equity story remains intact NEUTRAL • Metlen Energy & Metals: 2024 EBITDA +7%, to EUR 1.1bn, as expected NEUTRAL • Akcansa: proposed dividend almost in line with our estimate NEUTRAL • Piraeus Financial Holdings: 4Q24E preview (due on 24 February) NEUTRAL • Gr...
- Jakub Caithaml
WOOD Flash – Graphisoft Park: 4Q24 results, and another strong year
Despite the initially cautious management guidance, Graphisoft Park (GSPARK) has delivered another strong year in 2024, with its FFO exceeding EUR 14m. Even after the stock’s recent rally, the company still offers a >10% FFO yield, ranking among the most attractively-valued real estate plays under our coverage and, we believe, in Europe. Weak economic growth in Hungary and a wave of new office developments planned in Budapest for 2025-26E pose risks, potentially keeping vacancy rates elevated an...
- Jakub Caithaml
- Peter Palovic
Wizz Air: knocked out, beat down, black and blue (stays BUY)
We remain below the consensus for 4Q FY25E, driven by a weaker RASK and elevated costs, both the ex-fuel (CASKx) and the fuel CASK. We expect the FY25E CASKx to reach EUR 2.8-2.9/ASK, roughly 20% higher yoy, which is likely to push the consensus FY26E CASKx estimates higher as well. This, in turn, could weigh on the consensus FY26E net profit forecasts (we are c.50% below the consensus). Another negative surprise would be most unwelcome, after three consecutive quarters of earnings misses, not t...
- Markus Remis
- Stephane Houri
PEO BANK POLSKA KASA OPIEKI SA
TKA TELEKOM AUSTRIA AG
EBS ERSTE GROUP BANK AG
CEZ CEZ AS
UNIQA INSURANCE GROUP AG
EVN EVN AG
MMK MAYR-MELNHOF KARTON AG
ZVTG ZAVAROVALNICA TRIGLAV D.D.
CDR CD PROJEKT S.A.
OMV OMV AG
PKO PKO BANK POLSKI S.A.
KOMB KOMERCNI BANKA A.S.
VOE VOESTALPINE AG
WIZZ WIZZ AIR HOLDINGS PLC
PZU POWSZECHNY ZAKLAD UBEZPIECZEN SPOLKA AKCYJNA
VER VERBUND AG CLASS A
SPL SANTANDER BANK POLSKA SA
POS PORR AG
MIL BANK MILLENNIUM SA
LNZ LENZING AG
MTELEKOM MAGYAR TELEKOM TELECOMMUNICATIONS
ROS ROSENBAUER INTERNATIONAL AG
TPS ORANGE POLSKA S.A.
CAI CA IMMOBILIEN ANLAGEN AG
PAL PALFINGER AG
WIE WIENERBERGER AG
ATS AT & S AUSTRIA TECHNOLOGIE & SYSTEMTECHNIK AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
SEM SEMPERIT HOLDING AG
PKN POLSKI KONCERN NAFTOWY ORLEN S.A.
LPP LPP S.A.
SBO SCHOELLER-BLECKMANN OILFIELD EQUIPMENT AG
UBS UBM DEVELOPMENT AG
CCC CCC SA
KTCG KAPSCH TRAFFICCOM
OTP OTP BANK NYRT
EUR EUROCASH S.A.
VIG VIENNA INSURANCE GROUP AG WIENER VERSICHERUNG GRUPPE
PYT POLYTEC HOLDING
ZAG ZUMTOBEL GROUP AG
POST OSTERREICHISCHE POST AG
ANDR ANDRITZ AG
STR STRABAG SE
POSR POZAVAROVALNICA SAVA
11B 11 BIT STUDIOS S.A.
ALR ALIOR BANK SA
FLU FLUGHAFEN WIEN AG
FACC FACC AG
BRD BRD-GROUPE SOCIETE GENERALE
TLV BANCA TRANSILVANIA S.A.
SNG SOCIETATEA NATIONALA DE GAZE NATURALE ROMGAZ SA
SNP PETROM S.A.
DIGI DIGI COMMUNICATIONS NV
MOL MOL HUNGARIAN OIL & GAS PLC CLASS A
BG BAWAG GROUP AG
IMP IMPACT DEVELOPER & CONTRACTOR S.A.
DNP DINO POLSKA S.A.
AMAG AMAG AUSTRIA METALL AG
SFG SPHERA FRANCHISE GROUP SA
AGR AGRANA BETEILIGUNGS-AG
EAT AMREST HOLDINGS SE
FQT FREQUENTIS AG WIENER
NLBR NOVA LJUBLJANSKA BANKA DD LJUBLJANA
ALG ALLEGRO.EU SA
INPST INPOST S.A.
ANR ANSWEAR.COM
ONE ONE UNITED PROPERTIES SA
ACAG AUSTRIACARD HOLDINGS AG
AMS AMS-OSRAM AG
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: BFT PW; GE Macro; BIMAS TI; OPAP GA; MYTIL GA; WPL PW; SNP...
HEADLINES: • Benefit Systems: 4Q24 headline profit a touch below forecasts, due to the accelerated recognition of the incentive plan POSITIVE • Georgia macro: insights on a Ukraine deal spillover to Georgia • BIM: Competition Authority imposes administrative fine of TRY 1,296m NEGATIVE • OPAP: Greek gaming market +6% yoy in December and 11% in 2024 POSITIVE • Metlen Energy & Metals: reaches 11-year bauxite supply/alumina offtake agreement with Rio Tinto POSITIVE • Wirtualna Polska: announces ten...
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: AIRA LI; G2M SS; BOCHGR GA; AKCNS TI; KRU PW; ARABIAND AB;...
HEADLINES: • Air Astana Group: market cap largely covered by net cash (upgraded to BUY) • Gentoo Media: 4Q24 financial results review, and key conference call takeaways NEUTRAL • Bank of Cyprus: 4Q24 results and 2025E guidance highlights • Akcansa: key takeaways from the 4Q24 conference call • Kruk: 4Q24E cash EBITDA and net profit guidance NEUTRAL • Arabian Drilling: announces strategic alliance with Shelf Drilling POSITIVE • Allegro: 4Q24E results preview – flat yoy EBITDA expected (due on 14 ...
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: SOLUTION AB; AKCNS TI; EME Macro/Strategy Weekly; CCC PW; ...
HEADLINES: • Solutions by STC: strong 4Q24 results POSITIVE • Akcansa: 4Q24 financial results review NEGATIVE • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (10-16 February) • CCC: PLN 1.4bn settlement for minorities at Modivo; capital increase around the corner NEUTRAL • Cyfrowy Polsat: to use the proceeds from the Asseco stake sale to repay debt NEUTRAL • AmRest: 4Q24E preview – 7% EBITDA growth expected (due on 27 February) • Dino: 4Q24E preview – 10% yoy EBITDA growth expected (due on 27 February) •...
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: MOL HB; TOASO TI; OPL PW; ADNOCDRI UH; TBCG LN; ISCTR TI; ...
HEADLINES: • MOL: there’s gain in the mundane (stays BUY) • Tofas: very weak set of results in 4Q24 NEGATIVE • Orange Polska: 4Q24 – EBITDAaL up 7% yoy, 6% above the consensus; 2025E guidance in line with expectations POSITIVE • ADNOC Drilling: 4Q24 results beat expectations POSITIVE • TBC Bank: 4Q24 results and conference call • Isbank: 4Q24 results and 2025E guidance highlights NEUTRAL • Medicover: takeaways from the 4Q24 earnings call • 11 bit studios: delays release of The Alters NEGATIVE • ...
TPS ORANGE POLSKA S.A.
MYTIL MYTILINEOS S.A.
ENA ENEA S.A.
PGE PGE POLSKA GRUPA ENERGETYCZNA S.A.
TBCB TBC BANK JOINT STOCK CO
11B 11 BIT STUDIOS S.A.
TPE TAURON POLSKA ENERGIA S.A.
TOFAS TOFAS TURK OTOMOBIL FABRIKASI A.S.
MCOV B MEDICOVER AB
NLBR NLB GROUP
BCG BALTIC CLASSIFIEDS GROUP PLC
ADNOCDRILL ADNOC DRILLING CO
7202 ARABIAN INTERNET & COMMUNICATIONS SERVICES CO
- Bram Buring
- CFA
- Jonathan Lamb
MOL: there’s gain in the mundane (stays BUY)
We maintain our BUY rating on MOL, with an updated 12M price target (PT) of HUF 3,600 (from HUF 3,810), offering 22% upside. Upstream projects in Azerbaijan, Hungary and Kazakhstan are boosting short-term production. Oil prices look stable, while we forecast a EUR 38/MWh gas price for 2025E. Most of the arbitrary taxes are now history. Refining margins remain at healthy levels, although petrochemicals margins are still poor. The Rijeka coker should boost margins and volumes later this year, and ...
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: CCC PW; ADNOCDIS UH; RO Macro; PL Macro; MYTIL GA; CAR PW;...
HEADLINES: • CCC: preliminary 4Q24 EBITDA beats our and the market's expectations by c.20% POSITIVE • ADNOC Distribution: 4Q24 results and dividend proposal NEUTRAL • Romania macro: update on the political and fiscal situation • Poland macro: PM Tusk signals shift of policy focus • Metlen Energy & Metals: Canadian Fairfax officially raises stake to 6.4%, as expected NEUTRAL • Inter Cars: January sales growth at 9% yoy NEUTRAL • Budimex: 4Q24E preview – strong gross margin, but headlines down, as...
- Bruno Cavalier
- Christophe-Raphaël Ganet
- Markus Remis
- Stephane Houri
LHA DEUTSCHE LUFTHANSA AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
AAL ANGLO AMERICAN PLC
MC LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON SE
TKA TELEKOM AUSTRIA AG
RI PERNOD RICARD SA
UHR SWATCH GROUP LTD. BEARER
RMS HERMES INTERNATIONAL SCA
EBS ERSTE GROUP BANK AG
CEZ CEZ AS
UNIQA INSURANCE GROUP AG
EVN EVN AG
MMK MAYR-MELNHOF KARTON AG
ZVTG ZAVAROVALNICA TRIGLAV D.D.
CDR CD PROJEKT S.A.
EL ESSILORLUXOTTICA SA
OMV OMV AG
PKO PKO BANK POLSKI S.A.
KOMB KOMERCNI BANKA A.S.
IAG INTERNATIONAL CONSOLIDATED AIRLINES GROUP SA
BRBY BURBERRY GROUP PLC
KER KERING SA
VOE VOESTALPINE AG
WIZZ WIZZ AIR HOLDINGS PLC
PZU POWSZECHNY ZAKLAD UBEZPIECZEN SPOLKA AKCYJNA
BAS BASF SE
VER VERBUND AG CLASS A
EZJ EASYJET PLC
RY4C RYANAIR HOLDINGS PLC
SPL SANTANDER BANK POLSKA SA
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
POS PORR AG
MIL BANK MILLENNIUM SA
LNZ LENZING AG
MTELEKOM MAGYAR TELEKOM TELECOMMUNICATIONS
ROS ROSENBAUER INTERNATIONAL AG
TPS ORANGE POLSKA S.A.
CAI CA IMMOBILIEN ANLAGEN AG
PAL PALFINGER AG
WIE WIENERBERGER AG
ATS AT & S AUSTRIA TECHNOLOGIE & SYSTEMTECHNIK AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
SEM SEMPERIT HOLDING AG
PKN POLSKI KONCERN NAFTOWY ORLEN S.A.
LPP LPP S.A.
SBO SCHOELLER-BLECKMANN OILFIELD EQUIPMENT AG
UBS UBM DEVELOPMENT AG
CCC CCC SA
KTCG KAPSCH TRAFFICCOM
MONC MONCLER SPA
INW INFRASTRUTTURE WIRELESS ITALIANE S.P.A.
TIT TELECOM ITALIA S.P.A.
EUR EUROCASH S.A.
VIG VIENNA INSURANCE GROUP AG WIENER VERSICHERUNG GRUPPE
PYT POLYTEC HOLDING
ZAG ZUMTOBEL GROUP AG
POST OSTERREICHISCHE POST AG
ANDR ANDRITZ AG
STR STRABAG SE
POSR POZAVAROVALNICA SAVA
11B 11 BIT STUDIOS S.A.
BC BRUNELLO CUCINELLI S.P.A.
ALR ALIOR BANK SA
CFR COMPAGNIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT SA
FLU FLUGHAFEN WIEN AG
FACC FACC AG
CLNX CELLNEX TELECOM S.A.
BRD BRD-GROUPE SOCIETE GENERALE
TLV BANCA TRANSILVANIA S.A.
SNG SOCIETATEA NATIONALA DE GAZE NATURALE ROMGAZ SA
SNP PETROM S.A.
DIGI DIGI COMMUNICATIONS NV
MOL MOL HUNGARIAN OIL & GAS PLC CLASS A
BG BAWAG GROUP AG
IMP IMPACT DEVELOPER & CONTRACTOR S.A.
DNP DINO POLSKA S.A.
AMAG AMAG AUSTRIA METALL AG
SFG SPHERA FRANCHISE GROUP SA
AGR AGRANA BETEILIGUNGS-AG
EAT AMREST HOLDINGS SE
FQT FREQUENTIS AG WIENER
NLBR NOVA LJUBLJANSKA BANKA DD LJUBLJANA
ALG ALLEGRO.EU SA
INPST INPOST S.A.
ANR ANSWEAR.COM
ONE ONE UNITED PROPERTIES SA
P911 DR. ING. H.C. F. PORSCHE AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
ACAG AUSTRIACARD HOLDINGS AG
AF AIR FRANCE - KLM
AMS AMS-OSRAM AG
- Bruno Cavalier
- Christophe-Raphaël Ganet
- Michael B. Schäfer
AAL ANGLO AMERICAN PLC
MC LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON SE
RI PERNOD RICARD SA
UHR SWATCH GROUP LTD. BEARER
RMS HERMES INTERNATIONAL SCA
EL ESSILORLUXOTTICA SA
IAG INTERNATIONAL CONSOLIDATED AIRLINES GROUP SA
BRBY BURBERRY GROUP PLC
KER KERING SA
WIZZ WIZZ AIR HOLDINGS PLC
BAS BASF SE
EZJ EASYJET PLC
RY4C RYANAIR HOLDINGS PLC
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
LPP LPP S.A.
MONC MONCLER SPA
INW INFRASTRUTTURE WIRELESS ITALIANE S.P.A.
TIT TELECOM ITALIA S.P.A.
BC BRUNELLO CUCINELLI S.P.A.
CFR COMPAGNIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT SA
CLNX CELLNEX TELECOM S.A.
P911 DR. ING. H.C. F. PORSCHE AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
AF AIR FRANCE - KLM
- Bruno Cavalier
- Christophe-Raphaël Ganet
- Oliver Metzger
LHA DEUTSCHE LUFTHANSA AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
PROX PROXIMUS SA DE DROIT PUBLIC
MC LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON SE
BFIT BASIC-FIT NV
UHR SWATCH GROUP LTD. BEARER
RMS HERMES INTERNATIONAL SCA
SCR SCOR SE
GXI GERRESHEIMER AG
EL ESSILORLUXOTTICA SA
IAG INTERNATIONAL CONSOLIDATED AIRLINES GROUP SA
BRBY BURBERRY GROUP PLC
KER KERING SA
WIZZ WIZZ AIR HOLDINGS PLC
GN GN STORE NORD A/S
EZJ EASYJET PLC
RY4C RYANAIR HOLDINGS PLC
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
SAVE SAVENCIA SA
LPP LPP S.A.
MONC MONCLER SPA
ROVI LABORATORIOS FARMACEUTICOS ROVI S.A.
BC BRUNELLO CUCINELLI S.P.A.
CFR COMPAGNIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT SA
SAB BANCO DE SABADELL SA
NXFIL NX FILTRATION HLDG BV
IVG IVECO GROUP
AF AIR FRANCE - KLM
- Bruno Cavalier
- Christophe-Raphaël Ganet
- Oliver Metzger
LHA DEUTSCHE LUFTHANSA AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
PROX PROXIMUS SA DE DROIT PUBLIC
MC LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON SE
BFIT BASIC-FIT NV
UHR SWATCH GROUP LTD. BEARER
RMS HERMES INTERNATIONAL SCA
SCR SCOR SE
GXI GERRESHEIMER AG
EL ESSILORLUXOTTICA SA
IAG INTERNATIONAL CONSOLIDATED AIRLINES GROUP SA
BRBY BURBERRY GROUP PLC
KER KERING SA
WIZZ WIZZ AIR HOLDINGS PLC
GN GN STORE NORD A/S
EZJ EASYJET PLC
RY4C RYANAIR HOLDINGS PLC
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
SAVE SAVENCIA SA
LPP LPP S.A.
MONC MONCLER SPA
ROVI LABORATORIOS FARMACEUTICOS ROVI S.A.
BC BRUNELLO CUCINELLI S.P.A.
CFR COMPAGNIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT SA
SAB BANCO DE SABADELL SA
NXFIL NX FILTRATION HLDG BV
IVG IVECO GROUP
AF AIR FRANCE - KLM
- Olfa Taamallah
- Yan Derocles
- Olfa Taamallah
- Yan Derocles
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: TPEIR GA; CZ Macro; CEZ CP; 11B PW; BCG LN; TITC GA; ACP P...
HEADLINES: • Piraeus Financial Holdings: first take on potential Ethniki acquisition NEUTRAL • Czech Republic macro: CNB heading for a temporary pause • CEZ: finalises disposal of Polish coal assets NEUTRAL • 11 bit studios: Polish FSA taking explanatory actions regarding disclosure obligations NEUTRAL • Baltic Classifieds Group: directors sell 2m share (0.4% stake) NEGATIVE • Titan Cement: US subsidiary’s IPO priced at USD 16/share, reportedly • Asseco Poland: 4Q24E preview – flat yoy net profi...
- Can Demir
WOOD Flash – Piraeus Financial Holdings: first take on potential Ethni...
Piraeus announced yesterday (6 February) that it has entered exclusive talks with CVC to acquire 70% of Ethniki Insurance, Greece’s largest insurer. While Ethniki’s 2024E financials are not out yet, based on the company’s 2023 adjusted ROTE and the announced EUR 469m price tag for 70% of the company, we estimate that Piraeus will pay between 8-9x P/E and 1.3-1.6x P/TBV for 2024E. According to Bloomberg, Piraeus is trading at 0.65x P/BV and 5.3x P/E multiples for 2024E. The bank expects a CET1 im...
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: RBI AV; OMV AV; SNP RO; BOROUGE UH; ACP PW; WPL PW; CPS PW...
HEADLINES: • Raiffeisen Bank International: 2024 results; 2025E ROE (excluding Russia) guidance of c.10%; equity story still hostage to Russian exposure • OMV: 4Q24 results – CCS EBITDA beats expectations, dividend proposal of EUR 4.75/share POSITIVE • OMV Petrom: 4Q24 results; dividend proposal of RON 0.0444/share NEUTRAL • Borouge: 4Q24 results NEUTRAL • Asseco Poland: considering selling its treasury shares to strategic investor; part of the proceeds to be distributed as dividends POSITIVE • ...
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