The EM primary market has had an active start to 2025, with issuance so far being well absorbed by the market. We see the potential for some spread widening as more noise around Trump's policy measures comes out and more issuers look to take advantage of the early-year window for supply.
Anadolu Efes achieved c.40% USD based EBITDA CAGR in beer segment between 2021 and 2023 and increased beer-only net cash position to UDS199m in 1Q24. This growth is attributed to price adjustments to cover food and beverage inflation, efforts to broaden product portfolios through the introduction of new categories, and market share gains. Following the impressive EBITDA performance, the management has already indicated for margin compression in 2024. At a beer-only 2024E EV/EBITDA of 2.6x, Anad...
Anadolu Efes has seen improved profitability and financial leverage in the beer segment in 1H23. As a result, the company has revised up 2023 guidance in beer segment, while expressing caution regarding beer volumes, due to the impact of high inflation. Our projections have been revised to account for macro forecasts, price adjustments reflecting the uptrend in food and beverage inflation, new volume growth assumptions, and a higher corporate tax rate. Consequently, we have increased our target...
Due to a change in analyst responsibilities, we are discontinuing our coverage of Anadolu Efes, Aygaz, Enerjisa Enerji, Erdemir, Tekfen Holding and Vestel Beyaz with immediate effect. We caution against using the forecasts, ratings and price target guidance issued previously on these stocks.
EME Equity Market – May 2023 Market performance – in its election month and with talks of a return to investment grade starting to materialise, Greece outperformed, posting a stellar performance. The MSCI EM Europe Index gained 2.3% mom in EUR terms, but lost 1.4% mom in USD in May. The Greek ASE Index saw the biggest gains (+12.3% mom in EUR terms), followed by the Hungarian BUX Index (+6.2% mom in EUR terms) and the Turkish ISE 30 Index (+3.4% mom in EUR terms). The remaining geographies finis...
We expect some investor caution to remain in EM in the near term given the ongoing debt ceiling debate and fallout from the banking crisis, but some stability in US rates and the dollar should eventually give support to stronger performance for EM credit.
EM credit markets were under pressure over the last week as base yield curves continued shifting up following changes in perception of key rates trajectories as inflation remains elevated. We expect pressure on EM credit pricing and volatility to remain high next week, while activity in the primary markets remains subdued.
EME Equity Market – January 2023 Market performance – strong start to 2023 in Czechia and Greece; multi-month rally interrupted in Turkey. The MSCI EM Europe Index gained 3.2% mom in EUR terms and 4.6% mom in USD in January. The Czech PX and the Greek ASE were the best performers, posting double-digit gains of 12.3% and 10.0% mom in EUR terms, respectively. There were also very decent performances from Poland, Hungary and Romania, with gains of 5.5% mom, 5.5% mom and 4.7% mom in EUR terms, respe...
HEADLINES: • NLB Group: too appealing to ignore (stays BUY) • Eurozone macro: December data better than expected • 4iG: signs purchase agreement for 51% stake in Vodafone Hungary POSITIVE • Benefit Systems: strong December additions in sports cards POSITIVE • Huuuge Games: 4Q22 bookings estimate up 1% qoq POSITIVE • CD Projekt: order regarding preliminary approval of the class action settlement NEUTRAL • Coca-Cola Icecek: announces 4Q22 volume data and 2023E guidance POSITIVE • Anadolu Efes: a...
Including Turkcell to our model portfolio, while removing Anadolu Efes: We are including Turkcell to our model portfolio, while excluding Anadolu Efes. Turkcell was one of the worst performers in the BIST-30 index in 2022. The lagged effect of price adjustments on ARPU growth, its sensitivity to TL volatility due to FX-based capex and financial debt and the lack of major catalysts were the main drivers of the company’s underperformance. However, the company has increased the frequency of price a...
EME Equity Market – November 2022 Market performance – Turkey does it again, breezing past everyone else, once more, in November. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced 11.6% mom in EUR terms and 16.7% mom in USD. The ISE30 index, again, boasted the best performance among our coverage, adding 18.6% mom in EUR terms and 23.9% mom in local currency (lcl) terms. Positive performances were also recorded in the WIG (+14.0% EU /13.0% lcl mom), the BUX (+12.6% EUR/12.0% lcl mom), the BET (+8.4% EUR/8.6% lcl...
Anadolu Efes recorded strong growth in the beer segment and a substantial FCF improvement, leading to a decline in beer-only net debt/EBITDA to 0.7x in 9M22 vs 2.5x in 2021. Based on the improved profitability and FCF generation, we increase our target Mcap for the beer segment by 42%, to USD657m. We also include the new macro forecasts and higher pricing and peer comparison in our valuation. Thus, we raise our target price to TL82/share (from TL55) and maintain our BUY rating. Anadolu Efes trad...
HEADLINES: • Sirma Group Holding: healthy leverage position, amidst slowdown in IT (BUY - transfer of coverage) • Ilirija d.d.: summer season yields solid, yet uneven, results (downgraded to HOLD) • US macro: no surprises, but no respite; recession is coming • Raiffeisen Bank International: EUR 1.1bn in 3Q22 net profit, supported hugely by Russian operations POSITIVE • Bank Pekao: 3Q22 net loss, but results show strength and high profitability POSITIVE • ING BSK: 3Q22 results rather neutral a...
EME Equity Market – August 2022 Market performance – Turkey the biggest winner, in a predominantly bad month. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined 1.2% mom in EUR and 2.8% mom in USD terms. Turkey’s ISE index outperformed all other indices, adding 24.9% mom in EUR terms and 25.1% in local currency terms. Hungary’s benchmark, the BUX Index, added 1.1% mom and 0.2% mom in EUR and HUF terms, respectively. Greece’s ASE Index had a muted performance and added only 0.6% mom. All the other indices across ...
The risk-on sentiment continued in EM credit this week on the back of positive US data surprises, and we see some scope for the squeeze to continue into the back end of the summer amid some signs of stabilisation in the macro environment.
HEADLINES: • Ilirija d.d.: stronger prices drive upgrade (upgraded to BUY) • OTP Bank: 2Q22 - quite solid and promising, if not for recession and credit risk outlook for 2022E NEUTRAL • Turkish Airlines: 2Q22 - strong results, high cargo yields remain a key driver, beat on pricing POSITIVE • Petkim: 2Q22 results - big net income beat • Brisa: 2Q22 - earnings miss on input cost pressure NEGATIVE • Anadolu Efes: strong beat in the 2Q22 results POSITIVE • GTC: buys a minority stake in a project ...
EME Equity Market – May 2022 Market performance – markets down mostly, as MSCI EM Europe Index declines 3.6%. The MSCI EM Europe Index fell 3.6% mom and 2.0% mom in EUR and USD terms, respectively, in May. The best-performing index was the Russian MOEX, which added 6.3% mom in EUR terms, but declined 3.7% mom in local currency. However, we note that, with the CBR ban on short selling and restrictions on international investors, as well various sanctions, this performance is not fully comparable ...
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