reports
- Egor Fedorov
- James Wilson
- Egor Fedorov
- James Wilson
EM Credit Spark/EM credit weekly and trade ideas update
The EM primary market has had an active start to 2025, with issuance so far being well absorbed by the market. We see the potential for some spread widening as more noise around Trump's policy measures comes out and more issuers look to take advantage of the early-year window for supply.
Moody's Ratings affirms Erdemir's B3 ratings; positve outlook
Moody's Ratings ("Moody's") has today affirmed Eregli Demir ve Celik Fabrikalari T.A.S.'s (Erdemir) long-term corporate family rating (CFR) of B3, probability of default rating (PDR) of B3-PD, and national scale long-term corporate family rating of A3.tr. We have also assigned a B3 instrument rating...
Moody's Ratings affirms Erdemir's B3 ratings; positve outlook
Moody's Ratings ("Moody's") has today affirmed Eregli Demir ve Celik Fabrikalari T.A.S.'s (Erdemir) long-term corporate family rating (CFR) of B3, probably of default rating (PDR) of B3-PD, and national scale long-term corporate family rating of A3.tr. We have also assigned a B3 instrument rating to...
- Ece Mandaci
Anadolu Efes
Anadolu Efes achieved c.40% USD based EBITDA CAGR in beer segment between 2021 and 2023 and increased beer-only net cash position to UDS199m in 1Q24. This growth is attributed to price adjustments to cover food and beverage inflation, efforts to broaden product portfolios through the introduction of new categories, and market share gains. Following the impressive EBITDA performance, the management has already indicated for margin compression in 2024. At a beer-only 2024E EV/EBITDA of 2.6x, Anad...
- Egor Fedorov
- James Wilson
- Oleksiy Soroka
- CFA
Tekfen Holding A.S.: 2 directors
Two Directors at Tekfen Holding A.S. bought/maiden bought 54,000 shares at between 51.600TRY and 52.500TRY. The significance rating of the trade was 54/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's...
- Koray Pamir
Erdemir
Revising estimates, Maintain Hold: We have updated our estimates for Erdemir and increased our 12M TP by 2%, to TL53.6/share, mainly led by the update of our macro assumptions, implying a 27% upside potential (vs. 28% upside potential of our coverage). Thus, we reiterate our Hold rating for the shares (downgraded from Buy on January 2022, underperformed the BIST-100 by 64% since). Regarding near term outlook, we are constructive of improvement in Erdemir’s sales volume in FY24 (estimate of 13% y...
- Egor Fedorov
- James Wilson
- Koray Pamir
Aygaz
We have updated our underlying assumptions for Aygaz and raised our 12-month TP up by 21%, to TL175/share, implying 44% upside potential. Accordingly, we upgrade our rating to Buy from Hold. Our key argument is that Aygaz’s valuation has become tangibly more compelling following an underperformance of 43% over the past year vs its key valuation component (c.72% of target NAV), a stake adjusted 9.28% share in Tupras . In effect, implied valuation of Aygaz’s core LPG business and 55% stake in carg...
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