EME Equity Market – March 2024 Market performance – mixed performances in March, with the Romanian BET outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 0.3% mom in EUR terms and 0.4% mom in USD in March. The Romanian BET reported the strongest performance, adding 7.1% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Czech PX and the Polish WIG20 (+4.1% and 1.0% mom, in EUR terms, respectively). Greece saw a relatively muted performance (-0.2% mom in EUR terms), while Hungary (-1.1% mom in EUR terms) and Tür...
HEADLINES: • Tofas: fortune favours the bold (stays BUY) • LPP: 4Q23 in line with prelims; FY24E guidance maintained; stellar rollout plans NEUTRAL • Aselsan: strong pre-IAS29 4Q23 results, bullish FY24E guidance POSITIVE • Hungary macro: MNB turns cautious, with a slower pace of rate cuts • Logo Yazilim: weak 4Q23 results, but the details matter NEGATIVE • Eurowag: takeaways from the 2H23 earnings call NEUTRAL • Wirtualna Polska: key takeaways from the 4Q23 earnings call POSITIVE • Ten Square G...
Türkiye's leading enterprise application software (EAS) developer, Logo, reported its IAS29 inflation adjusted FY23 financials on 21 March, after the market closed, and hosted a conference call for investors on 22 March. In its 4Q23 IR presentation, the company also disclosed the key metrics for its 4Q23 performance on a pre-IAS29 basis (the basis for all the consensus estimates). The reported 4Q23 results were weaker than expected, while the annual NI in the IAS29-adjusted FY23 financials was a...
EME Equity Market – February 2024 Market performance – a positive February, with the Polish WIG20 outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 4.2% mom in EUR terms and 3.7% mom in USD in February. The Polish WIG20 saw the strongest performance, adding 6.4% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Greek ASE (+4.2% mom), the Turkish ISE30 (+4.0% mom) and the Romanian BET (+2.6% mom) (all in EUR terms). There was a relatively muted performance in Hungary (+0.6% mom in EUR terms) and a decline in the Cze...
HEADLINES: • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (5-11 February) • CCC: key takeaways from 4Q conference POSITIVE • Banca Transilvania: acquisition of OTP Romania POSITIVE • Ten Square Games: launches PLN 114.5m share buyback programme NEUTRAL • Inter Cars: January sales growth at 13% yoy, broadly in line with management's FY target NEUTRAL • Logo Yazilim: KoCSistem agreement • TeraPlast: slight miss on 2023 EBITDA, sees strong growth in 2024E • Short News (CEZ)
EME Equity Market – January 2024 Market performance – Turkey off to the races in January. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 4.2% mom in EUR terms and 2.2% mom in USD in the first month of the year. There was a V-shape recovery in the Turkish ISE30, with the index adding 12.6% mom in EUR terms. The Greek ASE and Hungarian BUX indices also reported strong performances, adding 5.7% and 5.3% mom, respectively, in EUR terms. The Czech PX Index advanced by 2.2% mom, while the Romanian BET 0.9% mom in EUR...
HEADLINES: • Orange Polska: safe dividend haven (stays BUY) • Logo Yazilim: recent newsflow supportive of our investment case • Magyar Telekom: to implement annual inflation-based fee adjustment as of 1 March 2024 POSITIVE • Mo-BRUK: Municipal Appeals Board suspends execution of recent decision regarding increased fees NEUTRAL • 11 bit studios: Frostpunk 2 gameplay trailer released; game to be available on PC Game Pass NEUTRAL • Al Arabia Outdoor Advertising: announces new contract in Dubai P...
Over the past couple of weeks, we have witnessed a series of positive newsflow items for Logo, which is supportive of our BUY rating. In this flash note, we summarise some of these recent developments and comment on their implications for our Logo investment thesis. In our comprehensive report, dated 2 November, we lifted our earnings estimates and PT (to TRY 160.0/share, from TRY 71.1/share) significantly, on our expectations of an improved operating performance in 2024E. Although the stock pri...
HEADLINES: • WOOD's Winter Wonderland EME Conference 2023: postcards from Prague • CEZ: postcard from Prague • Colt CZ Group SE: postcard from Prague • Eurowag: postcard from Prague • Pilulka Lekarny: postcard from Prague • Athens Exchange Group: postcard from Prague • Elbit Systems: postcard from Prague • Siauliu Bankas: postcard from Prague • Budimex: postcard from Prague • CD Projekt: postcard from Prague • Cyber_folks: postcard from Prague • Cyfrowy Polsat: postcard from Prague ...
EME Equity Market – November 2023 Market performance – Greeks in the lead, in a month with only green across the region. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 5.6% mom in EUR terms and 8.7% mom in USD in November. The Greek ASE Index was the top performer in our region (+6.9% mom), followed by the Polish WIG20 (+5.5% mom) and the Hungarian BUX (+4.0% mom). The Czech PX Index saw the most muted performance, advancing 2.8% mom.
HEADLINES: • Logo Yazilim: clearer skies in 2024E (stays BUY) • Turkish Airlines: 3Q23 - even better summer than last year POSITIVE • Brisa: solid 3Q23 results, on gross margin expansion and low CIT NEUTRAL • Migros: strong beat in the 3Q23 financials POSITIVE • ING BSK: posts solid 3Q23 results, but largely in line with its peers NEUTRAL • Verbund: 3Q23 results above our estimates • Alkaloid: 3Q revenues growth normalises, 4Q shaping up nicely NEUTRAL • EME Macro/Strategy: US - Fed stays on h...
EME Equity Market – October 2023 Market performance – election results prompt stellar market reaction in Poland; sell-off in Turkey. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 1.7% mom in EUR terms and 2.0% mom in USD in October. Poland staged a massive rebound, post the elections, with the WIG20 advancing 16.4% mom in EUR terms. Apart from Turkey, where October was a sell-off, with the ISE30 declining 13.7% mom in EUR terms, there were relatively muted performances everywhere else (BUX +2.1% / PX +0.4% / B...
Leading Turkish enterprise application software (EAS) developer Logo Yazilim (Logo) is facing an improved business outlook in 2024E, following an unexpected margin hit from its Romanian corporate IT solutions business, TotalSoft, in 9M23. While Logo’s operating margins has also come under pressure at its core Turkish SME software business due to elevated payroll costs (the largest cost item for the company) in a hyperinflationary economic environment, we are reassured by management’s focus on pr...
HEADLINES: • Aselsan: 3Q23 results - backlog hits historical peak of USD 11bn, execution on track POSITIVE • Coca-Cola Icecek: strong beat in 3Q23 financials POSITIVE • Logo Yazilim: 3Q23 results - in line NEUTRAL • Siauliu Bankas: 3Q23 results highlights • OMV Petrom: takeaways from the 3Q23 earnings call NEUTRAL • Czech Republic macro: GDP disappoints in 3Q • OMV: joint venture to build Europe's largest plastics sorting facility • Jahez: announces lapse of period to fulfil the SPA condition...
EME Equity Market – August 2023 Market performance – Turkey the top performer in August, once again. The MSCI EM Europe Index lost 0.7% mom in EUR terms and 2.2% mom in USD in August. Turkey, yet again, outperformed its peers, with the ISE30 gaining 9.4% mom in EUR terms. The Hungarian BUX index saw a solid performance in August, adding 6.1% mom in EUR terms, while the Romanian BET had a lacklustre month, barely making any gains (0.1% mom in EUR terms). Elsewhere, the index performances were neg...
We downgrade Logo Yazilim to HOLD and slightly adjust the target price to TL 81 (previously TL84). This decision comes as a response to the modifications in our projections, combined with the downward revision of guidance for 2023. Our reasons for this change include limited product price adjustments, reduced growth pace in both Romania and Turkey, and increased cost pressure, notably from personnel expenses. With the updated estimates Logo trades at 2023E 13.3x P/E, a c.52% discount to internat...
HEADLINES: • Romgaz: keeper for the longer term (stays BUY) • Turkish Airlines: 2Q23 beat, revenue environment remains very strong, costs better than expected POSITIVE • Logo Yazilim: 2Q23 results in line, but FY23E guidance cut NEGATIVE • Alro: deeper net loss in 2Q23, bauxite business to be sold NEGATIVE • CCC: preliminary 2Q23 adjusted EBITDA falls 27% yoy, headlines broadly as expected NEUTRAL • Brisa: takeaways from the 2Q23 earnings call NEUTRAL • Auto Partner: July sales up 27% yoy NEUTR...
HEADLINES: • Alior Bank: 2Q23E beat on COR leads to upside potential for 2023E earnings expectations POSITIVE • mBank: solid 2Q23 numbers - amid symbolic net loss, we have positive takeaways • National Bank: 2Q23 highlights - strong NIM, upgrades guidance similar to peers • Logo Yazilim: TeleSystem acquires Logo's local competitor, Mikro NEGATIVE • Dogus Otomotiv: to acquire Group A shares of Dogus REIT NEUTRAL • Cyfrowy Polsat/Wirtualna Polska: CPS audience share at 22.25%, while WP TV at 0....
EME Equity Market – May 2023 Market performance – in its election month and with talks of a return to investment grade starting to materialise, Greece outperformed, posting a stellar performance. The MSCI EM Europe Index gained 2.3% mom in EUR terms, but lost 1.4% mom in USD in May. The Greek ASE Index saw the biggest gains (+12.3% mom in EUR terms), followed by the Hungarian BUX Index (+6.2% mom in EUR terms) and the Turkish ISE 30 Index (+3.4% mom in EUR terms). The remaining geographies finis...
HEADLINES: • Turkey strategy: Turkish gambit - May 2023 elections • OTP Bank: books very strong start to 2023E, with 1Q23E implying 20%+ ROE POSITIVE • Graphisoft Park: 1Q23 - good quarter, FFO yield in high teens POSITIVE • Dogus Otomotiv: 1Q23 results - strong beat POSITIVE • Logo Yazilim: 1Q23 results - in line, except for one-off quake tax hit on NI NEUTRAL • SOK Marketler Ticaret: higher-than-expected bottom line in 1Q23 POSITIVE • Isbank: 1Q23 highlights - showing similar trends, but go...
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