We discontinue our coverage of the following stocks, with immediate effect. We caution against using the forecasts, ratings and price target guidance issued previously on these stocks: AD Plastik Arena Hospitality Group Bittnet Ciech Conpet Dogus Otomotiv Ekspress Grupp Fintel Energija Immofinanz Kcell Kernel KGHM Komercijalna Banka NLB Banka Petrol Group S Immo Sava Re Shelly Group (formerly Allterco) STS Group Turk Telekom Turkcell Ulker Zagreb Stock Exchange
A director at Ciech SA bought 4,057,954 shares at 54.250PLN and the significance rating of the trade was 70/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly s...
HEADLINES: • MOL: a multi-faceted, 3D Hungarian puzzle (stays BUY) • Gradus: inflation hedge (but not cheap) (stays HOLD) • Romanian banks: details on the proposed moratorium NEUTRAL • Warsaw Stock Exchange: receives PFSA's approval to launch Global Connect POSITIVE • Ciech: adopts 2022-24 management incentive programme POSITIVE • Polish telecoms: Play sells 50% stake in FiberForce for PLN 1.775bn POSITIVE • Short News (CIE, CEZ, EBS)
HEADLINES: • Polish banks: the draft bill on mortgagors' aid is proceeding in the Parliamentary Commission • Kofola: 1Q22 financial results review POSITIVE • AUGA Group: 1Q22 review - good results, 2022 outlook remains solid • Ciech: tax office challenges PLN 2.7m tax settlement NEUTRAL • DataWalk: sales to an e-commerce platform and the BC Assembly of First Nations NEUTRAL • DataWalk: announces new incentive scheme NEGATIVE • Huuuge Games: May bookings estimate down 6% mom, but flat in flagsh...
EME Equity Market – May 2022 Market performance – markets down mostly, as MSCI EM Europe Index declines 3.6%. The MSCI EM Europe Index fell 3.6% mom and 2.0% mom in EUR and USD terms, respectively, in May. The best-performing index was the Russian MOEX, which added 6.3% mom in EUR terms, but declined 3.7% mom in local currency. However, we note that, with the CBR ban on short selling and restrictions on international investors, as well various sanctions, this performance is not fully comparable ...
HEADLINES: • GTC: 1Q22 - in line, stock cheap, but difficult and uncertain macro may continue to weigh on price • Dom Development: Polish residential - a difficult market environment, but we see value in Dom • Inter Cars: 1Q22 EBITDA 7% below our estimate, on lower EBITDA margin NEGATIVE • Ignitis Group: 1Q22 results review - solid beat, 2022E EBITDA guidance hiked POSITIVE • Warsaw Stock Exchange: 1Q22 preliminary EBITDA 4% above market's expectations NEUTRAL • Bank of Cyprus: 1Q22 - solid qu...
HEADLINES: • PZU: 1Q22 - investment result holds up better than expected on equities and costs under control POSITIVE • PKO BP: 1Q22 results review - solid results • TBC Bank: 1Q22 highlights - good quarter • GTC: 1Q22 - results in line, DPS proposal of PLN 0.28 (a 5% yield) NEUTRAL • NEPI Rockcastle: 1Q22 - tenants' sales edging above 2019 levels NEUTRAL • Ciech: 2022-24E strategy - high EBITDA target, solid cash generation, regular dividends POSITIVE • Astarta: 1Q22 conference call takeaways...
EME Equity Market – April 2022 Market performance – regional benchmarks performance rather mixed in April. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 5.3% in EUR terms and by 9.9% in USD. The best-performing market was Turkey, whose equities gained 13.3% in EUR terms and 9.2% in local currency. Russia’s MOEX Index added 9.0% in EUR terms, but declined by 9.6% in local currency. In Greece, the ASE Index advanced by 4.9% in EUR terms, the last to end the month in the black; while Romania’s BET Index rec...
HEADLINES: • Bank Pekao: 1Q22 results review - strong beat vs. market's expectations • MONETA Money Bank: 1Q22 results review - in line with our expectations and 5% ahead of consensus • Akbank: 1Q22 results highlights - better than expected, due to trading • Turkish Airlines: 1Q22 yet another strong quarter, continued recovery of traffic and yield strength POSITIVE • Tofas: 1Q22 results - strong beat POSITIVE • Turk Telekom: 1Q22 - results in line, no guidance change NEUTRAL • Ford Otosan: 1...
HEADLINES: • InPost: e-commerce growth at courier multiples (upgraded to BUY) • Ciech: bumpy road, but got there finally (stays BUY) • Patria Bank: profitability set to grow, but valuation remains fair (stays HOLD) • Astarta Holding: 1Q22 trading update - strong volumes, despite the war POSITIVE • CCC: final 4Q21 results above prelims, mainly on one-off POSITIVE • LPP: 4Q21 slightly below prelims on war-related write-downs; no surprises in FY22E guidance NEUTRAL • Shoper: 4Q21 broadly in line...
Since our previous update on Ciech, the stock is up by 53%, vs. +25% for the WIG index. However, we still keep our BUY rating on the stock, and raise our 12-month price target (PT) from PLN 37.7 to PLN 58.0/share (33% upside). Our key reasons for our valuation hike are: i) the structurally stronger global soda ash market, which should support Ciech’s soda segment’s results in the mid-term; ii) the turnaround in Ciech’s agro business (segment’s EBITDA up by 3x yoy in 2021); and iii) its improved ...
HEADLINES: • Banca Transilvania: profits booming, despite headwinds (stays BUY) • Kruk: issues 1Q22E profit guidance at almost record-high levels • LPP: PLN 350 DPS proposal (3.2% yield) POSITIVE • Ciech: 2022E EBITDA forecast in line with outlook presented during 4Q21 conference call NEUTRAL • Shoper: 4Q21E EBITDA of PLN 8.1m, in line with preliminary guidance (due out tomorrow) • Bank Millennium: 1Q22E preview (due on 26 April) • Santander Bank Polska: 1Q22E preview (due on 26 April) • Al...
HEADLINES: • Polish financials: PZU - higher rates and for longer (stays BUY); Bank Pekao - standing firm against the headwinds (stays BUY); Alior Bank - too cheap to ignore (upgraded to BUY) • Romania macro: the government announces a support package for both individuals and companies • Fondul Proprietatea: end-March NAV could be at least 5% higher mom • Famur: 4Q21 EBITDA 16% below market expectations NEGATIVE • LPP: FY22E rollout plans raised to 500k sqm POSITIVE • Inter Cars: CFO says tha...
EME Equity Market – March 2022 Market performance – regional benchmarks mostly in the black, despite the MSCI EM Europe Index losing half of its value. Following its decline in February, the MSCI EM Europe Index lost in March as well, declining by 49.5% in EUR terms and 50.1% in USD terms. Russia’s MOEX Index added 13.2% in EUR terms and 9.4% RUB terms (we note that Russian companies’ GDRs are still suspended for trading). The Turkish ISE30 Index added 8.2% in EUR terms and 13.3% in local curren...
HEADLINES: • CEZ: primus inter pares (stays BUY) • OMV: blocked stream, new theme (downgraded to HOLD) • Ciech: final 4Q21 in line with preliminary results, reassuring 2022E forecasts POSITIVE • Huuuge Games: post-results conference call with management - takeaways NEUTRAL • Fondul Proprietatea: asks for FSA approval for tender offer of up to 325m shares POSITIVE • Short News (KRU, TEL, AST)
The general evaluation of CIECH SA (PL), a company active in the Speciality Chemicals industry, has been upgraded by the independent financial analyst theScreener with the addition of a star. Its fundamental valuation now shows 2 out of 4 possible stars while its market behaviour can be considered as moderately risky. theScreener believes that the additional star(s) merits the upgrade of its general evaluation to Slightly Positive. As of the analysis date March 25, 2022, the closing price was PL...
HEADLINES: • DataWalk: cutting-edge technology in a market niche (BUY - initiation of coverage) • OPAP: 4Q21 results - strong FCF generation, shareholder distribution of EUR 1.40/share • Fourlis: solid 4Q21 numbers, DPS proposal of EUR 0.11 POSITIVE • Wirtualna Polska: key takeaways from the 4Q21 earnings call NEUTRAL • Hungary macro: MNB strengthens its hawkish bias • Romanian energy: support scheme adopted on 18 March fully in line with draft released last week • MOL: announces record HUF...
HEADLINES: • Dom Development: 4Q21 - broadly in line, focus on the outlook NEUTRAL • Russia macro: awaiting a downturn, CBR stays on hold • Warsaw Stock Exchange: 4Q21 conference call takeaways NEUTRAL • EME Strategy: MSCI launches consultations over companies with significant links to Russia NEUTRAL • Kruk: buys NPL portfolios in Italy NEUTRAL • Ciech: CEO claims company may be interested in M&A NEUTRAL • Ford Otosan: change of General Manager NEUTRAL • Short News (KER)
HEADLINES: • Wizz Air: difficult year ahead, but sell-off excessive (stays BUY) • Bank Pekao: very solid 4Q21, but disappointing dividend proposal • BIM: 4Q21 strongly above expectations POSITIVE • Ciech: 4Q21 preliminary adjusted EBITDA 5% above the consensus, but quality of profit is high POSITIVE • Sberbank: 4Q21 results • Lukoil: FY21 financial results review • Alrosa: 4Q21 IFRS results - EBITDA down 25% qoq, on lower revenues per carat • Polymetal: 2H21 IFRS results - top line and EBIT...
EME Equity Market – February 2022 Market performance – Russia’s equities bled in February due to the country’s invasion of Ukraine. The MSCI EME Europe Index declined by 38.7% in EUR terms and 38.8% in USD terms. Russian stocks, represented by the MOEX Index, lost the most in February, declining by 34.6% in EUR terms and 30.0% in RUB terms. The Hungarian BUX Index lost 21.8% in EUR terms and 18.2% in HUF terms; while the Polish WIG20 Index declined by 11.7% in EUR and 9.5% in PLN. In Prague, the...
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