HEADLINES: • DO & CO: mixed 3Q FY26 P&L results; strong FCFF generation, double vs. last year NEUTRAL • Orlen: acquires stake in the Afrodite discovery in Norway NEUTRAL • PZU: 4Q25E results preview (due on 26 February) • Text: 3Q25-26E preview – 28% yoy EBITDA decline expected (due on 26 February) • MOL: to explore for oil and gas in Libya with TPAO and Repsol POSITIVE • Hidroelectrica: preliminary 4Q25 total volumes sold 18% above our estimate POSITIVE • Metlen Energy & Metals: secures access ...
HEADLINES: • LPP: 4Q prelims in line with expectations NEUTRAL • Poland macro: NBP on hold • Budimex: bids rank highest in two PSE tenders NEUTRAL • Romgaz: 4Q25 operational results NEUTRAL • Romania macro: positive news • OTE: Greek telecoms regulator launches public consultations on 900MHz and 1,800MHz spectrum POSITIVE • Metlen Energy & Metals: sells 283MW UK solar portfolio to Schroders Greencoat POSITIVE • Aselsan: strategic JV agreement with CSG POSITIVE • Erste Bank: 4Q25E preview (due on...
We reinitiate the coverage of Erste Bank with a Neutral recommendation. Our 2026 year-end ex-dividend target price is EUR 107.0, which implies an upside potential of approximately 4.6%. For 2025, we forecast a dividend of EUR 0.76 per share, corresponding to a payout ratio of 10%. At current levels, the stock trades at 1.88× P/TBV, 13.7× 2025 P/E, and 11.5× 2026 P/E.
EME Equity Market – January 2026 All regions in the green in January, with the Turkish ISE the best performer. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 11.1% mom in EUR terms and 13.2% mom in USD terms in January. The Turkish ISE was the top performer (+20.8% mom), followed by the Hungarian BUX (+17.5% mom); the Romanian BET (+11.1% mom); the Greek ASE (+9.2% mom); the Polish WIG 20 (+5.9% mom); and the Czech PX (+2.4% mom; all in EUR terms).
HEADLINES: • Kruk: 4Q25 trading update – miss on annual investments, but recoveries strong NEUTRAL • Santander Bank Polska/Erste Bank: shift of shareholdings finalised as of 9 January NEUTRAL • Inter Cars: December sales increased by 13.6% yoy NEUTRAL • Duna House: strong 4Q KPIs; Czexit; Italy stake raised to 95% POSITIVE • Coca-Cola Icecek: 4Q25 trading update and 2026E volume guidance NEUTRAL • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (1-8 January)
HEADLINES: • CEZ: government reiterates intention to seek full control of generation assets NEUTRAL • Text: key takeaways from the 3Q25-26 preliminary earnings call NEUTRAL • DataWalk: key takeaways from an interview with the CEO NEUTRAL • Auto Partner: December sales growth accelerates to 17.9% yoy POSITIVE • Cyfrowy Polsat/Wirtualna Polska: CPS audience share at 23.20%, while WP TV at 0.57% in December 2025 NEUTRAL • Jeronimo Martins: 4Q25E trading update preview – 8% yoy sales growth expected...
HEADLINES: • Text: preliminary 3Q25-26 (calendar 4Q25) results – MRR of USD 6.98m (-1.1% qoq and -1.7% yoy) NEGATIVE • PZU/Bank Pekao: delay merger deadline NEGATIVE • mBank: to face PLN 362.1m of FX mortgage saga costs in 4Q25E NEUTRAL • Santander Bank Polska: updates market on the impact of sale of 60% stake in Santander Consumer Bank NEUTRAL • Santander Bank Polska: calls EGM for 22 January NEUTRAL • Cyfrowy Polsat: Liechtenstein court upholds May ruling on Solorz family succession POSITIVE •...
HEADLINES: • Baltic Classifieds Group: FY 1H26 financial results review and conference call takeaways NEUTRAL • Orange Polska: signs Social Agreement for 2026-27 with trade unions POSITIVE • Budimex: GDDKiA cancels selection for Starogard Gdański bypass NEGATIVE • CEZ: minority shareholders group suing State for WFT damages NEUTRAL • WOOD's Winter Wonderland EME Conference 2025: Postcards from Prague • CD Projekt • cyber_Folks/Shoper • Orange Polska • Text • Vercom • 4iG • Magyar Telekom • Titan
EME Equity Market – November 2025 Czech PX leads in November, Türkiye the only loser. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 1.5% mom in EUR terms and 2.1% mom in USD terms in November. The Czech PX was the top performer, adding 4.7% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Greek ASE and the Hungarian BUX (+4.4% and +3.7% mom, respectively, in EUR terms). The Romanian BET and Polish WIG 20 were also in the green (+1.3% and +1.0% mom in EUR terms). The only loser was the Turkish ISE 30 (-2.0% mom in EUR terms).
HEADLINES: • Kaspi.kz: too cheap to ignore (stays BUY) • VIGO Photonics: 3Q25 results review – adjusted EBITDA over 2x above our estimate; order intake up 24% yoy POSITIVE • CCC: final 3Q25 EBITDA spot on prelims NEUTRAL • Rainbow Tours: 3Q25 conference call highlights NEUTRAL • Polish banks: President signs bill on higher CIT for the banks • Murapol: main shareholder sells 20.5% of shares in ABB NEUTRAL • Primoco UAV: promising tactical UAV producer (HOLD - initiation of coverage) • CTP: enters...
HEADLINES: • EME Macro/Strategy: dividends in EMEA – yield hunting after markets have repriced • Text: 2Q25-26 (calendar 3Q25) results – EBITDA down 29% yoy, 8% below the consensus NEGATIVE • Rainbow Tours: strong 3Q25 beat on EBITDA and net profit, following the strong gross margin and cost discipline POSITIVE • CD Projekt: 3Q25 results review – 3Q25 EBITDA up 92% yoy, 11-15% above our and the consensus estimates POSITIVE • PGE: stable to declining recurring EBITDA outlook for 2026E NEUTRAL • H...
The macro backdrop entering 2026E remains broadly supportive for high-dividend strategies across Emerging Europe and the frontier markets, but the opportunity set has clearly narrowed. After a year of sharp repricing across the WOOD universe, the high dividend conditions of 2024-25 have largely disappeared, as a result of many sectors rerating materially. As a result, high-dividend exposure is no longer a broad regional trade: the most compelling opportunities are now concentrated. However, the ...
Please excuse the lateness of our Daily today, due to technical issues. HEADLINES: • Theon International: impressions from the CMD POSITIVE • OTP Bank: books solid 3Q25, in line with expectations; market waiting for management to reveal plans on surplus capital allocation decisions NEUTRAL • Dino: 2-3% EBITDA miss in 3Q25; lfl and EBITDA dynamics behind Zabka; FY25E guidance maintained NEGATIVE • InPost: 3Q25 slightly above expectations; FY25E EBITDA guidance trimmed, on slower Yodel NEUTRAL • ...
Erste shares have re-rated on the back of a strong growth, profitability, and capital trajectory between Q1 andQ3 2025, particularly since the announcement in May of the takeover of the third-largest bank in Poland. Despite continued solid sentiment, we think that our 2027 forecasts, enhanced by the Polish acquisition, are already reflected in the current share price, which, together with upside of less than 10%, warrants a downgrade from Outperform to Neutral.
Erste beat both the analyst consensus (EUR 836 mn) and our estimate (EUR 864 mn), reporting a net profit of EUR 901 mn. The outperformance was driven by strong NII and NFCI, further supported by a positive surprise in other results. The latter included an EUR 77 mn one-off gain in Romania, which offset banking levies. Asset growth remained healthy across both loans and deposits. Impairments were slightly higher than consensus. Guidance was upgraded for NII and CIR based on an improved earni...
EME Equity Market – October 2025 Hungarian BUX leads in October, Türkiye and Greece lag. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 3.5% mom in EUR terms and 1.8% mom in USD terms in October. The Hungarian BUX was the top performer, adding 9.1% mom in EUR terms; followed by the Polish WIG20 (+5.9% mom) and the Romanian BET (+5.4% mom) (in EUR terms). The Czech PX was also in the green (+2.8% mom in EUR terms). The Greek ASE and the Turkish ISE30 (-1.9% mom and -1.1% mom, in EUR terms, respectively) both los...
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