reports
- Iyad KhalidÊGhulam
Yansab: Q4 22 results analysis | Second consecutive losses
Yansab reported the second consecutive quarterly losses in Q4 22, with a net loss of SAR96mn. This is compared to profits of SAR335mn in Q4 21 and loss of SAR61mn in Q3 22. The Q4 22 losses are significantly higher than the SNB Capital and consensus estimates losses of SAR7mn and SAR36mn, respectively. We believe the higher than expected losses are attributed to weaker than expected operating rates, realized prices and non-opex. * Revenues declined by 30.7% yoy (-12.5% qoq) to SAR1.40bn and ...
- Iyad KhalidÊGhulam
Saudi Petrochemicals Sector | Q4 Update | A difficult year ahead
Following a challenging H2 22, major headwinds are expected in the near-term for the Saudi petrochemicals sector. The expected global recession, high inflation levels and the commissioning of new capacities will test the sector’s dynamics, exerting pressure on product margins. However, we believe the full removal of COVID-19 restrictions in China by H2 23f is a key positive and will drive demand over the medium term. Valuations are generally attractive over the LT, but given the major headwin...
- Iyad KhalidÊGhulam
Yansab: Q3 22 Results Analysis – First quarterly losses since commerci...
Yansab reported a disappointing set of Q3 22 results, with a net loss of SAR61mn versus profits of SAR180mn and SAR288mn in Q3 21 and Q2 22 respectively. This is much lower than the SNB Capital, and consensus estimates of SAR105mn and SAR177mn, respectively. Although revenues came in line with our estimates the variance in earnings is attributed to 1) much lower than expected gross margin and 2) lower than expected net non-operating income. Based on our last publish update, we our Overweight ...
- Iyad KhalidÊGhulam
Yansab: Highest quarterly net income on record
Yansab reported a better-than-expected set of Q2 22 results, with a net income of SAR289mn down 51.6% yoy (+1.9% qoq). This is higher than the SNB Capital, and consensus estimates of SAR221mn and SAR252mn, respectively. We believe, the variance is attributed to 1) higher than expected revenues, 2) stronger than expected gross margin and 3) higher than expected net non-operating income. * Revenues increased 4.0% yoy (+4.6% qoq) to SAR2.06bn and was higher than our estimates of SAR1.97bn. This...
- Iyad KhalidÊGhulam
Saudi Petrochemicals Sector | Q2 22 Sector Update | Challenges and opp...
The Saudi petrochemicals sector is going through an interesting period, as it is simultaneously facing major headwinds and attractive opportunities. Slowing global economic growth, supply-chain disruptions, new capacities and high feedstock prices are the sector’s main challenges. On the other hand, the ease of China’s lockdown has improved sentiments and will support outlook. We prefer companies with 1) favourable product mix, 2) feedstock advantage 3) low debt levels and 4) attractive divid...
- Iyad KhalidÊGhulam
Yansab: High operating rates offset by high production cost
Yansab reported a weaker than expected set of Q1 22 results, with a net income of SAR283mn, down by 32.7% yoy (-15.5% qoq). This is significantly lower than the SNB Capital and consensus estimates of SAR342mn and SAR338mn, respectively. We believe the lower than expected results are attributed to higher feedstock, production costs and opex which mitigated the positive impact of higher operating rates. * Revenues increased 14.4% yoy (+2.6% qoq) to SAR1.97bn, largely in-line with our estimates...
- Iyad KhalidÊGhulam
Yansab: Weak results on low sales and high costs
Yansab reported a lower-than-expected set of Q4 21 results. Although the net income increased by 0.7% yoy and +86.3% qoq) to SAR335mn in Q4 21, it was lower than the SNB Capital and consensus estimates of SAR472mn and SAR393mn, respectively. We believe the lower-than-expected estimates are attributed to 1) lower than expected revenues, 2) higher feedstock prices and 3) higher than expected non-opex. * Revenues increased 39.4% yoy (+8.0% qoq) to SAR1.92bn, but were lower than our estimates of...
- Iyad KhalidÊGhulam
Yansab: Weak results due to shutdown impact
Yansab reported a weak set of Q3 21 results, with a net income declining by 8.1% yoy (-69.9% qoq) to SAR180mn. This compares to the SNB Capital and consensus estimates of SAR445mn and SAR497mn, respectively. We believe the variance is attributed to 1) higher than expected impact of the 12 days unplanned shutdown in July 2021, 2) higher feedstock prices and 3) higher than expected non-opex. * Revenues increased 23.5% yoy (-10.3% qoq) to SAR1.78bn and were in-line with our estimates. The yoy i...
With a more favourable environment, YANBU NATIONAL PETRO improves to S...
YANBU NATIONAL PETRO (SA), a company active in the Commodity Chemicals industry, is favoured by a more supportive environment. The independent financial analyst theScreener has confirmed the fundamental rating of the title, which shows 2 out of 4 stars, as well as its unchanged, moderately risky market behaviour. The title leverages a more favourable environment and raises its general evaluation to Slightly Positive. As of the analysis date September 14, 2021, the closing price was SAR 67.70 and...
- Iyad KhalidÊGhulam
Yansab: Highest earnings since Q3 18 despite shutdowns
Yansab reported a better-than-expected set of Q1 21 results, with a net income of SAR420mn, up 302% yoy and 26.3% qoq. This is the highest quarterly earnings since Q3 18 and is significantly higher than the NCBC and consensus estimates of SAR285 and SAR276mn, respectively. We believe the higher than expected results are due to better realized prices, higher operating rates and/or the usage of inventory, which offset the impact of the 10-21 days shutdown and an impairment cost of SAR64mn. REVE...
- Iyad KhalidÊGhulam
Yansab: Q4 results – highest margins since Q3 18
Yansab reported a better than expected set of Q4 20 results, with a net income of SAR333mn, up +94.6% yoy and +70.1% qoq. This compares with the NCBC and consensus estimates of SAR271 and SAR262, respectively. Although topline were significantly lower than our estimates, we believe the better than expected results were driven by lower cost of production which led to the highest gross margin since Q3 18. Based on our last published update in June 2020, we are Neutral on Yansab with PT of SAR48...
- Iyad KhalidÊGhulam
Petrochemical Tracker: December 2020 — China demand drives petchem mar...
In November, strong demand from China (a key petrochemicals market) supported petrochemical products prices. Industrial activity recovered strong in China, with manufacturing PMI increased to more than 3 year high at 52.1. HDPE and PP prices increased +2.1% mom and +8.8% mom, respectively, while urea prices fell -0.7% mom to US$265. The PP-propane and PP-naphtha spreads increased +2.5% mom and +14.3% mom to US$614 and US$666, respectively. * In November, China’s manufacturing PMI reached 52...
- Iyad KhalidÊGhulam
Saudi Petrochemical Sector: Q2 20 update – Covid-19 is not the only ...
The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in major supply and demand shocks to the petrochemicals sector, pushing prices to their lowest levels in more than 10 years. It also resulted in major uncertainty on the sector’s 2020f earnings outlook. Beyond the negative impact of COVID-19, we believe the sector outlook remains muted, due to increasing supply, trade tensions and weak demand. We believe the sector is currently pricing-in a full recovery for the global economy, leaving limited attractive inv....
Ford Equity International Rating and Forecast Report
Ford Equity International Research Reports cover 60 countries with over 30,000 stocks traded on international exchanges. A proprietary quantitative system compares each company to its peers on proven measures of business value, growth characteristics, and investor behavior. Ford's three recommendation ratings buy, hold and sell, represent each stock’s return potential relative to its own country market.. The rating reports which are generated each week, include the fundamental details behind...
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