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Martin Marandon-Carlhian ... (+3)
  • Martin Marandon-Carlhian
  • Stephane Houri
  • Steven Boumans

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 11/13/2024

We maintain our Outperform rating on CaixaBank, one of our Top Picks in the sector, with a higher target of € 7.2 vs € 6.7 and ahead of the CMD on 19 November. We are lifting our net income estimates by 7% for 2025-2026, to 7% above the consensus. The strategic update is set to highlight the wisdom of the business model diversification (long-term savings) to address the current transition phase on rates. Despite a solid market performance, the profile does not look to be fully reflec...

Martin Marandon-Carlhian ... (+3)
  • Martin Marandon-Carlhian
  • Stephane Houri
  • Steven Boumans

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 13/11/2024

Nous réitérons notre opinion Surperformance sur CaixaBank, l’un de nos top picks du secteur, avec un OC porté à 7.2 € vs 6.7 € et en amont du CMD du 19/11. Nous relevons nos anticipations de RN de 7% sur 2025/2026 qui ressortent 7% supérieures au consensus. L’update stratégique devrait mettre en avant la pertinence de la diversification du business model (épargne LT) face à la transition actuelle sur les taux. Malgré un solide parcours boursier, cela n’est pas pleinement reflété dans ...

Florent Laroche-Joubert ... (+3)
  • Florent Laroche-Joubert
  • Roy Külter
  • Steven Boumans

ODDO : Spain: the PSOE and SUMAR looking to abolish the SOCIMI regime

>PSOE and Sumar spring a surprise in seeking to suddenly abolish the SOCIMI regime - On Monday 11 November, the PSOE reached a tax agreement with its Spanish government ally, “Sumar”, whereby the two parties want to abolish the SOCIMI REIT regime or at least part of its tax advantages. This sudden stance, which surprised Spanish property professionals, is thus different from the position that was presented just last week, namely to “encourage the construction of affor...

Florent Laroche-Joubert ... (+3)
  • Florent Laroche-Joubert
  • Roy Külter
  • Steven Boumans

ODDO : Espagne : le PSOE et SUMAR souhaiteraient abolir le régime SOCI...

>PSOE et Sumar créent la surprise en voulant supprimer soudainement le régime SOCIMI - Ce lundi 11 novembre, le PSOE sont parvenus à un accord fiscal avec son allié au gouvernement espagnol, « Sumar », par lequel les deux partis veulent supprimer le régime SOCIMI ou au moins une partie de ses avantages fiscaux. Cette prise de position soudaine qui a crée la surprise auprès des professionnels de l’immobilier espagnol, diffère ainsi de la position qui était encore mise ...

Lynn Hautekeete
  • Lynn Hautekeete

Risk of SOCIMI abolishment Fear of the SOCIMI abolishment stresses Eur...

Yesterday Spanish media reported on the potential abolishment of the SOCIMI status. The proposal comes from PSOE (socialists) and Sumar (Left winged). This is the REIT regime for listed companies that alows for a tax exemption. If this is the case corporate income tax would increase from 0% to 25%. It is very important to note that this measure is not yet approved. There is no visiblity yet on a potential alternative system. Additionally, measurements (cost shifts) could be taken to decrease the...

Jean-François Granjon ... (+2)
  • Jean-François Granjon
  • Thomas Zlowodzki

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 10/30/2024

The outcome of the US presidential election hangs in the balance, but the momentum seems to be with Donald Trump since the beginning of October: the candidate is now in the lead in six of the seven swing states, has just overtaken Kamala Harris in the national vote while 63% of punters are tipping him to win. We recap in the present note on the European stocks to play or avoid in the event of Donald Trump's victory and have also listed European stocks with a production base in the US,...

Jean-François Granjon ... (+2)
  • Jean-François Granjon
  • Thomas Zlowodzki

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 30/10/2024

Le scrutin présidentiel US reste incertain, mais le momentum semble être du côté de Donald Trump depuis début octobre : le candidat est désormais en tête dans 6 des 7 swing states, vient de dépasser Kamala Harris dans le vote national et est donné gagnant à 63% chez les parieurs. Nous rappelons les valeurs européennes à privilégier ou à éviter en cas de victoire de Donald Trump, et avons également listé les valeurs européennes ayant une base de production aux US, par nature moins expo...

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Aedifica: Good top line, portfolio stabilising, guidance marginally revised upward. Ageas: China Taiping Life 3Q Solvency remains strong. ASM: 3Q24 results – That's a relief - FY25 guide narrowed upwards. Belgian Telecoms: Peer Telenet 3Q24 results, still losing shares. Fugro: Focus on EBITDA and orderbook. GBL: Kicking off its trainers and cashing in €0.6bn. Colruyt: To operate 100 OKay City stores by 2032F. Heijmans: Preview - Progressing well. KPN: VodafoneZiggo 3Q24 show still weak pe...

Guy Sips ... (+6)
  • Guy Sips
  • Kristof Samoy
  • Lynn Hautekeete
  • Michiel Declercq
  • Thibault Leneeuw
  • Thomas Couvreur
Lynn Hautekeete
  • Lynn Hautekeete

Aedifica Increases FY24 guidance by 1%, no surprises

Aedifica reports 3Q24 results and increases the guidance by 1.0%. This is driven by positive currency differences and an improving operational margin. The results are perfectly in line with our expectations as we were already slightly above the FY24 guidance. The total investment program amounts to EUR 236m of which a EUR 93.0m cost-to-come remains. If Aedifica wants to grow EPS in the next years, new projects should be added to the pipeline. In the 3Q24 results Aedifica guides additional EUR 5....

Roy Külter ... (+2)
  • Roy Külter
  • Steven Boumans

Aedifica SA : Q3 2024 results: Results better than expected, strong de...

>EPS outlook +1%; upward revaluations (UK is strong) - Outlook increased +1% to >€4.90 EPRA EPS FY2024 and €233m EPRA earnings (before: €4.85/sh and >€231m); and reconfirmed the €3.90 DPS proposal.Like-for-like rental income +3.3% (H1 2024: 3.2% and 3% in FY2024 budget) broken down by +3.0% indexation, -0.2% rent negotiations and +0.5% fx changes.Fair value of investment portfolio increased +0.12% in Q3 (H1: +0.14%). Belgian (-1.4%) and German (-1.2%) fair v...

 PRESS RELEASE

Aedifica NV/SA: Interim financial report – Q3 2024

Aedifica NV/SA: Interim financial report – Q3 2024 Please find below Aedifica’s interim financial report for the 3rd quarter of the 2024 financial year.  Robust operational performance driving strong results above budget EPRA Earnings* amounted to €178.3 million (+7% compared to 30 Sept. 2023) or €3.75/shareRental income increased to €251.0 million (+7% compared to 30 Sept. 2023)3.3% increase in rental income on a like-for-like basis in the first 9 months of the yearWeighted average unexpired lease term of 19 years and occupancy rate of 100% Real estate portfolio* of over €6.1 billion as...

Hilde Van Boxstael ... (+4)
  • Hilde Van Boxstael
  • Lynn Hautekeete
  • Thomas Couvreur
  • Wim Lewi
 PRESS RELEASE

Aedifica NV/SA: Publication relating to a transparency notification

Aedifica NV/SA: Publication relating to a transparency notification Please find below a press release from Aedifica (a public regulated real estate company under Belgian law, listed on Euronext Brussels and Euronext Amsterdam), regarding a publication relating to a transparency notification. Attachments

Christophe Chaput ... (+3)
  • Christophe Chaput
  • Florent Laroche-Joubert
  • Steven Boumans

ODDO : The recovery is only beginning and the best is yet to come

The rate cut carried out and yet to come (ECB: -125bp to -150bp to come by end-2025e) is a real driver for listed real estate and creates the conditions enabling it to outperform. In this context, we are lifting 23 target prices for the 42 stocks covered. Covivio, CTP, Merlin Properties, URW, Vonovia and Xior Student Housing are now our Top Picks. Aedifica (Outperform vs Neutral) should also benefit. Lastly, we are lowering Care Property to Neutral and SFL to Underperform. - >...

Christophe Chaput ... (+3)
  • Christophe Chaput
  • Florent Laroche-Joubert
  • Steven Boumans

ODDO : La reprise ne fait que commencer et le meilleur est à venir

La baisse de taux actée et à venir (BCE : -125 à 150 pb à venir d’ici fin 2025e) agit comme un véritable catalyseur pour l’immobilier côté et crée les conditions lui permettant de surperformer. Dans ce cadre, nous relevons 23 objectifs de cours sur 42 valeurs suivies. Covivio, CTP, Merlin Properties, URW, Vonovia et Xior Student Housing constituent désormais nos top picks. Aedifica (Surperformance vs Neutre) devrait également en bénéficier. Enfin, nous abaissons Care Property à N...

Hilde Van Boxstael ... (+4)
  • Hilde Van Boxstael
  • Jacob Mekhael
  • Kristof Samoy
  • Wim Lewi
Gerardo Ibanez ... (+3)
  • Gerardo Ibanez
  • Roy Külter
  • Steven Boumans

ODDO : Dutch transfer tax to be reduced to 8%, supporting NAV and LTVs...

>Dutch real estate transfer tax to be reduced from 10.4% to 8% - The Dutch government will reduce the transfer tax for commercial buyers to 8%, according to leaked documents that newspaper De Telegraaf released. This is still more than the 6% it was before 2021, but less than the current 10.4%. The budget has now been sent to the Council of State. On “Prinsjesdag”, September 17, the House of Representatives will officially receive the plans, and the budget will be mad...

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