HEADLINES: • EME Macro/Strategy: reassessing the inflation and rates outlook to 2025E eop • Benefit Systems: strong momentum continues • Dom Development: volume growth, margins stronger for longer (stays BUY) • Kazakhstan macro: NBK keeps policy rate on hold, at 14.75% • Ford Otosan: to issue Eurobond • Bank Pekao: 1Q24E preview (results due on 30 April) • Santander Bank Polska: 1Q24E preview (results due on 30 April) • ING BSK: 1Q24E preview (results due on 7 May) • Short News (HUG)
After the excellent 2023 (3.9k units sold, PLN 2.6bn in revenues and a 30+% ROE, with just PLN 131m of net debt), we believe that Dom Development (Dom) is en route to another good year. Construction costs are stable and prices are still trending up, albeit at a slower pace than last year, when we saw offer prices for new apartments rise 14-22% yoy in major Polish cities, according to JLL. This means that we could see strong margins for longer, with possible upside to the already-high GPM of rece...
EME Equity Market – March 2024 Market performance – mixed performances in March, with the Romanian BET outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 0.3% mom in EUR terms and 0.4% mom in USD in March. The Romanian BET reported the strongest performance, adding 7.1% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Czech PX and the Polish WIG20 (+4.1% and 1.0% mom, in EUR terms, respectively). Greece saw a relatively muted performance (-0.2% mom in EUR terms), while Hungary (-1.1% mom in EUR terms) and Tür...
A director at Dom Development SA sold 6,500 shares at 157.148PLN and the significance rating of the trade was 68/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clea...
EME Equity Market – November 2023 Market performance – Greeks in the lead, in a month with only green across the region. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 5.6% mom in EUR terms and 8.7% mom in USD in November. The Greek ASE Index was the top performer in our region (+6.9% mom), followed by the Polish WIG20 (+5.5% mom) and the Hungarian BUX (+4.0% mom). The Czech PX Index saw the most muted performance, advancing 2.8% mom.
HEADLINES: • GTC: 3Q23 - decides not to pursue Ultima deal POSITIVE • Dom Development: 3Q23 in line, management concerns about the sustainability of subsidised mortgages NEUTRAL • Inter Cars: 3Q23 results broadly in line with expectations NEUTRAL • NEPI Rockcastle: 9M23 trading update sees continued growth in footfall and average spend per visit POSITIVE • ONE United Properties: 3Q23 - staying the course, covering ground • Romgaz: 3Q23 conference call takeaways • Patria Bank: 3Q23 results - we...
EME Equity Market – October 2023 Market performance – election results prompt stellar market reaction in Poland; sell-off in Turkey. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 1.7% mom in EUR terms and 2.0% mom in USD in October. Poland staged a massive rebound, post the elections, with the WIG20 advancing 16.4% mom in EUR terms. Apart from Turkey, where October was a sell-off, with the ISE30 declining 13.7% mom in EUR terms, there were relatively muted performances everywhere else (BUX +2.1% / PX +0.4% / B...
HEADLINES: • Poland macro: final election results • Santander Bank Polska: issues profit warning on FX mortgage saga costs in 3Q23E • MOL: Hungarian Government agrees to reduce royalties • Shoper: takeaways - conference call on home.pl agreement NEUTRAL • Dom Development: advance dividend of PLN 5.5/share POSITIVE • Dogus Otomotiv: BoD proposes DPS of TRY 5.6818181 NEUTRAL • Dino: acquisition of 75% of online cosmetic store for PLN 61m • Polish telecoms: 5G frequencies in Poland sold for PL...
EME Equity Market – September 2023 Market performance – positive developments in Romania and Turkey, declines everywhere else. The MSCI EM Europe Index lost 3.7% mom in EUR terms and 6.0% mom in USD in September. Romania took the spotlight, with the BET Index advancing 7.4% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Turkish ISE30 (+4.6% mom). The Polish WIG20 declined the most (-8.7% mom), followed by the Greek ASE, the Hungarian BUX and, finally, the Czech PX (-7.9%, -1.9% and -0.6% mom, respectively).
The easing of lending criteria at the beginning of 2023E improved affordability materially, restarting the sales momentum. The subsidised mortgages for first-time home buyers – in place since July – should provide a further boost from 3Q23E-onwards, especially in the regional cities. Despite the challenging 2022 (when rising construction costs and rate hikes dealt a blow to affordability), Dom’s GPM remains resilient, at c.30%. In the near term, supply may struggle to keep up with the recovering...
EME Equity Market – August 2023 Market performance – Turkey the top performer in August, once again. The MSCI EM Europe Index lost 0.7% mom in EUR terms and 2.2% mom in USD in August. Turkey, yet again, outperformed its peers, with the ISE30 gaining 9.4% mom in EUR terms. The Hungarian BUX index saw a solid performance in August, adding 6.1% mom in EUR terms, while the Romanian BET had a lacklustre month, barely making any gains (0.1% mom in EUR terms). Elsewhere, the index performances were neg...
HEADLINES: • LPP: heart of steel (stays BUY) • PGE: new 2030 strategy - more aggressive capex targets • Bank Handlowy: strong 2Q23 results; presents plan to support Tier 1 ratio and keep DPS rich NEUTRAL • Dom Development: 2Q23 - GPM still around 30%, as if the challenging last year did not happen POSITIVE • Motor Oil Hellas: 2Q23 results - refining segment weaker than expected • Enea: 2Q23 prelims - 44% EBITDA beat driven by distribution POSITIVE • Globalworth: preliminary 1H23 results NEUT...
EME Equity Market – May 2023 Market performance – in its election month and with talks of a return to investment grade starting to materialise, Greece outperformed, posting a stellar performance. The MSCI EM Europe Index gained 2.3% mom in EUR terms, but lost 1.4% mom in USD in May. The Greek ASE Index saw the biggest gains (+12.3% mom in EUR terms), followed by the Hungarian BUX Index (+6.2% mom in EUR terms) and the Turkish ISE 30 Index (+3.4% mom in EUR terms). The remaining geographies finis...
HEADLINES: • KazMunayGas: untapped potential - from oil to dividends (BUY - initiation of coverage) • HELLENiQ Energy: 1Q23 results - EBITDA beats expectations • Krka: strong 1Q23 numbers but margins should compress POSITIVE • Warsaw Stock Exchange: 1Q23 results beat expectations but margin compression worrying NEUTRAL • Dom Development: 1Q23 in line with our estimates but below consensus, some upside to our FY GPM POSITIVE • Benefit Systems: 1Q23 earnings call takeaways - greater LT market po...
EME Equity Market – December 2022 Market performance – Turkey closed the year by outperforming the other markets, yet again. The MSCI EM Europe Index gained 2.0% mom in EUR terms and 5.9% mom in USD in December. Turkey was, again, the best performer, with the ISE30 index adding 6.3% mom in EUR terms and 10.8% mom in local currency terms. Positive performances were recorded by the WIG20 (+3.1% EUR / 3.2% lcl mom) and the ASE indices (+1.9% EUR mom) as well. On the other side, the Hungarian BUX de...
HEADLINES: • AUGA Group: 3Q22 results review - solid numbers overall, higher costs bite the mushroom segment • Greek banks: measures to support vulnerable consumers • PKO BP: another day, another Puls Biznesu article on a potential management board reshuffle POSITIVE • PKO BP: MREL threshold requirements POSITIVE • Kruk: buys a retail portfolio in Spain POSITIVE • Dom Development: enters the resi4rent segment in Poland POSITIVE • Dino: new Management Board member appointed NEUTRAL • Turkish ...
EME Equity Market – November 2022 Market performance – Turkey does it again, breezing past everyone else, once more, in November. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced 11.6% mom in EUR terms and 16.7% mom in USD. The ISE30 index, again, boasted the best performance among our coverage, adding 18.6% mom in EUR terms and 23.9% mom in local currency (lcl) terms. Positive performances were also recorded in the WIG (+14.0% EU /13.0% lcl mom), the BUX (+12.6% EUR/12.0% lcl mom), the BET (+8.4% EUR/8.6% lcl...
Affordability has deteriorated dramatically on the Polish housing market this year, due to the combination of high rates and tighter creditworthiness criteria, which have led to a collapse in the number of transactions. Despite the challenges, Dom Development continues to fare relatively well in this environment, and sold c.700 apartments in 3Q22. We believe it could achieve a similar result in 4Q22E, which would bring the total 2022E sales to around 3k. From a P&L perspective, 2022E is shaping ...
HEADLINES: • Greek banks: earnings upgrades cycle (Alpha Bank, Eurobank, NBG and Piraeus Bank stay BUY) • Dom Development: 3Q22 - en route to another year of record profit POSITIVE • KGHM: 3Q22 results review - net income beat, but operating cash flow remains weak • Alro: takeaways from the 3Q22 earnings call POSITIVE • Purcari Wineries: takeaways from the 3Q22 earnings call NEUTRAL • Romgaz: takeaways from the 3Q22 earnings call NEUTRAL • Polish banks: PLN mortgage loan agreements subject t...
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