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Research Department
  • Research Department

IBERIAN DAILY 20 MAY (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: ACERINOX, IBERDROLA, TALGO, TELEFÓNICA. Strong week for European peripheral nations and the US European peripheral nation indices rose up to +2.0% over the week and the S&P 500 hit a new 2024 high, benefiting from the disappointing macro data and the falling debt yields. Within the STOXX 600, Telecoms and Real Estate led the gains last week, whereas Energy and Travel & Leisure ended with the biggest losses. On the macro side, in the euro zone the 2.4% YoY growth from April’s gene...

Research Department
  • Research Department

INFORME DIARIO 20 MAYO (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

COMPAÑÍAS QUE APARECEN EN EL INFORME: ESPAÑA: ACERINOX, IBERDROLA, TALGO, TELEFÓNICA. EUROPA: ASML. Buena semana para la periferia europea y EE.UU. Semana de avances de hasta el +2,0% en la periferia europea y de nuevos máximos anuales en el S&P 500, beneficiadas por la decepción en los datos macro y el recorte en la rentabilidad de la deuda. Dentro del STOXX 600, lideraron las ganancias semanales los sectores Telecos e Inmobiliario (c. +3,0%) mientras que Energía y Viajes&Ocio terminaron con l...

Michael B. Schäfer
  • Michael B. Schäfer

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 05/17/2024

Growth momentum remains solid, and the publication of Q1 sales bodes well for the future (12.5% organic growth, including 27% for Aerospace). Margins are set to pick up in 2024 (by an estimated 110bp), with the underlying operating profit expected to jump 33%. With good visibility for Aerospace, medium-term potential for Automotive and profitable growth for Medical, we estimate the potential for margin improvement at no less than 500bp in the medium term. We are raising our underlying...

Michael B. Schäfer
  • Michael B. Schäfer

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 17/05/2024

La dynamique de croissance reste solide et la publication du CA T1 est de bon augure (croissance organique de 12.5% dont 27% pour l’Aerospace). 2024 devrait voir un redressement des marges (+110 pb estimés) pour un ROC attendu en hausse de 33%. A l’appui d’une bonne visibilité pour l’aéronautique, d’un potentiel MT pour l’automobile et d’une croissance profitable pour le Médical, nous estimons le potentiel d’amélioration des marges à au moins 500 pb à MT. Nous relevons nos estimations...

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Ahold Delhaize: Walmart 1Q24/25 results. Azelis: Share placement by EQT and PSP. Belgian telcos: Digi mobile prices to be well below competition, targets 10% mkt share. EVS: Slow start, sales guidance held on strong pipeline, EBIT guidance below consensus. Exmar: Stable start to the year. Prosus: Fabricio Bloisi (CEO iFood) appointed as group CEO. Sif Group: 1Q24 pretty much in line, timing shifts a bit

Thijs Berkelder
  • Thijs Berkelder

SIF : Weaker than expected Q1 performance

>Production down 13% y-o-y, adjusted EBITDA down 26% - Production in 24Q1 is down 13% y-o-y to 42kt from 48kt, indicating it is on track for 165kt for FY24, in-line with previous guidance and down 14% from 192kt in 2023. Monopiles and transition pieces were manufactured for Dogger Bank C. In addition, SIF manufactured smaller diameter components for offshore steel structures, mostly gas jackets and substations.Contribution margin is down 1.2% y-o-y to € 33.6m (fr...

Chaima Ferrandon ... (+2)
  • Chaima Ferrandon
  • Sven Edelfelt

Wienerberger : Only a rebound is possible

>Q1 EBITDA down, but above our forecasts thanks to cost savings - Wienerberger reported Q1 2024 sales down at € 952m (volumes -12/13%, scope 4/5%, prices stable) and underlying EBITDA of € 115m. Q1 EBITDA was down 45% but 8% above our forecasts at € 106m. The EBITDA decline is due to the downturn in activity in Q1 2024 and non-recurring items (fall in capacity in Q1 2024 and revaluation of inventories in 2023). The only positive surprise is that savings on fixed cost...

Chaima Ferrandon ... (+2)
  • Chaima Ferrandon
  • Sven Edelfelt

Wienerberger : On ne peut que rebondir

>EBITDA T1 en baisse mais supérieur à nos attentes grâce aux économies de coûts - Wienerberger a publié un CA T1 2024 en baisse à 952 M€ (volumes -12/13%, scope 4/5%, prix stables) et un EBITDA courant de 115 M€. L’EBITDA T1 ressort en baisse de 45% mais 8% au-dessus de nos attentes à 106 M€. La baisse de l’EBITDA est due à la baisse d’activité au T1 2024 et à des éléments non-récurrents (baisse des capacités au T1 24 et réévaluation des stocks en 2023). Seule bonne s...

Louis Boujard ... (+3)
  • Louis Boujard
  • CFA
  • Philippe Ourpatian

ERG : 2026 trajectory slightly reworked and initial estimates for 2028

>Outperform rating maintained and target price adjusted to € 33.3 (vs € 34.5) - Based on the meeting to present ERG’s Q1 24 performances and the 2024-2026 strategic update, we maintain our Outperform rating based on the group’s specific profile which offers a more measured development than its rivals, a degree of resilience and a return of between 3.5% and 4%, which is unusual in the renewable independent power producer universe. Following the press release issued on ...

Louis Boujard ... (+3)
  • Louis Boujard
  • CFA
  • Philippe Ourpatian

ERG : Une trajectoire 2026 légèrement remaniée et les prémices de 2028

>Opinion Surperformance maintenue et OC ajusté à 33.3 € (vs 34.5 €) - A l’issue la réunion de présentation des performances au T1 24 et de la mise à jour stratégique 2024-2026, nous maintenons notre opinion Surperformance fondée sur le profil particulier du groupe qui offre un développement plus mesuré que ces concurrents, une certaine résilience et un rendement compris entre 3.5% et 4%, particularité rare dans l’univers des producteurs indépendants d’électricité reno...

Jerôme Bodin
  • Jerôme Bodin

Ströer SE & Co. KGaA : A new story of refocusing? Outperform vs Neutra...

We are undertaking a thorough review of our analysis and model for Ströer and adopt an Outperform rating (vs Neutral). Our view has two aspects: 1/ short and medium-term momentum should be very robust for the core business (outdoor in Germany, -42% of revenues) with CAGR of 7% driven by the digital and programmatic divisions, and the gradual upturn on the German market; 2/ however, above all, we think that the group will begin a gradual ‘dismantling’ strategy and divestments (tot...

Jerôme Bodin
  • Jerôme Bodin

Ströer SE & Co. KGaA : Une nouvelle histoire de recentrage ? Surperfor...

Nous procédons à une revue complète de notre analyse et modèle sur Ströer et adoptons une opinion Surperformance (vs Neutre). Notre vue est double : 1/ le momentum court et moyen terme va être très solide sur le cœur de métier (outdoor en Allemagne - 42% du CA) avec un TMVA de 7% tiré par le digital et programmatique, et la reprise progressive du marché allemand ; 2/ mais surtout nous estimons que le groupe va entamer une stratégie progressive de « démantèlement » et de cessions ...

SMA Solar Technology AG: 1 director

A director at SMA Solar Technology AG bought 716 shares at 49.038EUR and the significance rating of the trade was 53/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years ...

Jerôme Bodin ... (+2)
  • Jerôme Bodin
  • Thomas Zlowodzki

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 05/16/2024

We have tactically downgraded the energy sector from Overweight to Neutral (excl. oil services on which we are maintaining our Overweight rating) and dropped Shell Plc from our Large Caps list. The IEA report has accelerated the downswing for the energy sector, which could continue in the days ahead. June will be a better month to come back to the sector. - ...

Jerôme Bodin ... (+2)
  • Jerôme Bodin
  • Thomas Zlowodzki

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 16/05/2024

Nous dégradons tactiquement à Neutre le secteur de l’énergie (hors Services Pétroliers sur lesquels nous conservons une opinion Surperformance) et faisons sortir Shell plc de notre liste Large Caps. Le rapport AIE a accéléré la baisse du secteur énergie, qui pourrait se poursuivre dans les jours qui viennent. Juin sera un meilleur mois pour revenir sur le secteur. - ...

Louis Boujard ... (+3)
  • Louis Boujard
  • CFA
  • Philippe Ourpatian

ERG : Q1 2024 in line with the consensus and update to the 2026 trajec...

>A Q1 2024 publication in line with the consensus - The group has published its performances for Q1 2024, above our forecasts and broadly in line with those of the consensus. Recurring EBITDA came to € 165m (-1.2%), above the € 146m forecast but in line with the average for the FactSet consensus (€ 162m). This trend in earnings is due mainly to the significant improvement in wind and solar capacity (acquisitions and organic). An additional 322 MW were implemented as o...

Louis Boujard ... (+3)
  • Louis Boujard
  • CFA
  • Philippe Ourpatian

ERG : Un T1 24 en ligne avec le consensus et une trajectoire 2026 mise...

>Une publication du T1 24 en ligne avec le consensus - Le groupe a publié ses performances pour le T1 24, au-dessus de nos attentes et globalement en ligne avec celles du consensus. L'EBITDA récurrent s'établit à 165 M€ (-1,2%), au-dessus des 146 M€ attendus mais en ligne avec la moyenne du consensus FactSet (162 M€). Cette évolution des résultats est principalement due à l'augmentation significative des capacités éoliennes et solaires (acquisition et organique). 322 ...

Jerôme Bodin ... (+2)
  • Jerôme Bodin
  • Thomas Zlowodzki

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 05/15/2024 Date Performance sin...

With 71% of the companies in the Stoxx 600 having released their Q1 2024 results, the picture at this stage is encouraging, with 58% of positive surprises on results. Materials and financials were the sectors that delivered the most positive surprises. If the Q4 2023 earnings season put an end to a downward revision of EPS, the Q1 2024 earnings season has triggered the start of an upward EPS revision, more markedly in the US than in Europe. In terms of sectors, re-rating effects conti...

Jerôme Bodin ... (+2)
  • Jerôme Bodin
  • Thomas Zlowodzki

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 15/05/2024 Date Performance dep...

Alors que 71% des sociétés du Stoxx 600 ont publié, le bilan est à ce stade positif avec 58% de surprises positives sur les résultats. Matériaux et Financières sont les secteurs ayant apporté le plus de surprises positives. Le consensus – qui avait stoppé sa baisse durant les publications T4-23, est désormais reparti à la hausse, plus nettement aux Etats-Unis qu’en Europe. Sectoriellement, les effets de rerating ont continué de dominer les révisions de BPA. - ...

Manuel Martin ... (+3)
  • Manuel Martin
  • CEFA
  • CREA

Deutsche Konsum REIT-AG : Q2 2023-24 results overall in line, initial...

>Initial FFO I 2023-24e guidance in line with our estimates - Deutsche Konsum REIT (DKG) today reported Q2 2023-24 figures (from January to March 2024) which were overall slightly below our expectations.Rental revenues slightly decreased by -0.5% y-o-y to € 19.9m, below our € 20.3m forecast and net rental income decreased by -10.8% y-o-y to € 12.0m, being close to our € 13.2m estimate. FFO I declined more markedly by -13.1% y-o-y to € 8.5m translating into € 0.2...

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