Credit Morning 05/02/2024

BBVA proposes merging with Banco Sabadell to create a European leaderUnited Group: e& has considered a potential acquisition of United Group (Bloomberg)>...

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 05/02/2024

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Morning Crédit 02/05/2024

BBVA propose à Sabadell une fusion afin de créer un leader européenUnited Group : e& envisagerait une possible acquisition de United Group (Bloomberg)>...

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 02/05/2024

Nous sortons GALP de notre liste ODDO BHF European Large Caps. La valeur a réalisé une performance de +31,3% depuis son entrée le 20 mars dernier. Notre analyste adopte ce jour une opinion Neutre (vs Surperformance) sur la valeur qui a atteint notre objectif de cours. - ...

Imerys : The start of a long-awaited renewal

>Adjusted EBITDA 13% higher than we expected thanks to TQC - Q1 2024 adjusted EBITDA came to € 188m, up 9.2% and 13% above our estimate for € 166m (€ 131m excluding TQC). Special mention should be made of the contribution from TQC (The Quartz Corporation) which amounted to € 52m in Q1 2024, significantly above our estimate at € 35m (€ 20m in Q1 2023). Excluding TQC, the contribution to EBITDA from the underlying business was in line with our expectations. The Q1 EBITD...

Imerys : Le début d’un renouveau si longtemps attendu

>EBITDA ajusté 13% supérieur à nos attentes grâce à TQC - L’EBITDA ajusté T1 2024 ressort à 188 M€ en hausse de 9.2% et 13% au-dessus de nos attentes à 166 M€ (131 M€ hors TQC). Mention spéciale à la contribution de TQC (The Quartz Corporation) qui s’élève à 52 M€ au T1 2024 significativement supérieure à nos attentes de 35 M€ (20 M€ au T1 2023). Hors TQC, la contribution à l’EBITDA du business sous-jacent ressort en ligne avec nos attentes. La marge d’EBITDA T1 resso...

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Are the Lows "In" for this Pullback? While we are not yet out of the woods, we continue to see evidence that suggests the lows may be "in" for this pullback. Last week (4/23/24 Compass) we discussed the possibility that further downside was limited on the S&P 500 due to a multitude of reasons (SPX had simply filled 2/22/24 gap support that we had been discussing since late-February, Russell 2000 and Equal-Weighted S&P 500 were holding above key supports, short-term oversold conditions, subdued ...

Credit Morning 04/29/2024

Atos: the French State wants to acquire the group’s sovereign business, cash needs are bossted to € 1.1bn (vs € 0.6bn)Picard: talks between Moez Zouari and Lion Capital reportedly resumeDeutsche Bank announces an unexpected legal provision of € 1.3bn for Q2>...

Morning Crédit 29/04/2024

Atos : l’Etat souhaite acquérir les activités souveraines du groupe, les besoins de liquidités sont revus à 1,1 md EUR (vs. 0,6 md EUR)Picard : les discussions entre Moez Zouari et Lion Capital auraient reprisDeutsche Bank annonce une provision légale inattendue de 1.3 md EUR pour le T2>...

Norsk Hydro (Sell, TP: NOK50.00) - Q1 slightly on the soft side

Q1 EBITDA was c2% below consensus, with a somewhat soft mix, as Extrusions and Aluminium Metal, the two largest segments, were below forecasts. We have increased our 2024e EPS by 7% on the USD2,600/t spot aluminium price, and 2025–2026e by 2% on the Q1 results. We are 30% below consensus 2025e EBITDA; we do not see enough demand to raise aluminium prices above the marginal producer’s cost, as the price appreciation in recent weeks suggests. We still expect aluminium prices to decline with lower ...

Demand growing faster than supply - BUY

Q1'24 EBITDA of NOK 5.4bn, '24e-'26e EBIT up 2-3% post report. Market tightening rapidly in Q1 - demand up 5%, supply up 3%. Reiterate BUY — TP NOK 75.

EBITDA 2% below on higher cost

Aalberts NV: 1 director

A director at Aalberts NV sold 5,000 shares at 45.220EUR and the significance rating of the trade was 67/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly show...

Norsk Hydro (Sell, TP: NOK50.00) - 30% below 2025e EPS consensus

We expect aluminium prices to come down with falling global energy prices, and reiterate our SELL and NOK50 target price. We are 30% below consensus on 2025e EBITDA; we do not see large enough demand to raise aluminium prices above the marginal producer’s cost, as suggested by the price appreciation in recent weeks, we believe. We expect Q1 EBITDA of NOK6.2bn (results due at 7:00 CET on 24 April), driven by high hydropower production volumes in the quarter. We have reduced our 2025–2026e EPS by ...

Credit Morning 04/02/2024

S&P upgrades Masmovil’s rating to BB/stable from B/cw positive Altice France: S&P cuts the rating tp CCC/developing from B-/stable Rallye and holding companies: opening of compulsory liquidation proceedings Imerys has entered into exclusive negotiations with Flacks Group for the contemplated divestment of its assets serving the paper market.>...

Morning Crédit 02/04/2024

S&P relève le rating de Masmovil de B/cw positive à BB/stable Rallye et ses holdings vont solliciter l’ouverture d’une procédure de liquidation judiciaire Imerys : entrée en négociation exclusive avec le groupe Flacks en vue de la cession de ses actifs servant le marché du papier. Altice France : S&P dégrade le rating de B-/stable à CCC+/developing>...

ODDO : Focus on Construction: a bitter present (2024), a sweeter futur...

With the exception of the US, construction markets should continue to shrink in 2024 (-2% in Europe) before rebounding on the back of lower interest rates. Against this backdrop, groups will be differentiated mainly on the basis of their resilience (geographical and price/cost mix), capital allocation (and special situations) and valuation. In this context, we are upgrading our recommendations on KONE (modernisation as an alternative source of growth to China) and Holcim (a subst...

ODDO : Focus construction : un présent amer (2024), un futur plus doux...

Hormis les Etats-Unis, les marchés de la construction devraient continuer à reculer en 2024 (-2% en Europe) avant de rebondir à la faveur d’une baisse des taux. Dans ce contexte, la différenciation entre les groupes se fera essentiellement sur leur capacité de résistance (mix géographique et prix/ coûts), l’allocation du capital (et situations spéciales) et leur valorisation. Face à cet environnement, nous relevons nos recommandations sur KONE (la modernisation comme relais de la...

ODDO : Focus on Construction: a bitter present (2024), a sweeter futur...

With the exception of the US, construction markets should continue to shrink in 2024 (-2% in Europe) before rebounding on the back of lower interest rates. Against this backdrop, groups will be differentiated mainly on the basis of their resilience (geographical and price/cost mix), capital allocation (and special situations) and valuation. In this context, we are upgrading our recommendations on KONE (modernisation as an alternative source of growth to China) and Holcim (a subst...

ODDO : Focus construction : un présent amer (2024), un futur plus doux...

Hormis les Etats-Unis, les marchés de la construction devraient continuer à reculer en 2024 (-2% en Europe) avant de rebondir à la faveur d’une baisse des taux. Dans ce contexte, la différenciation entre les groupes se fera essentiellement sur leur capacité de résistance (mix géographique et prix/ coûts), l’allocation du capital (et situations spéciales) et leur valorisation. Face à cet environnement, nous relevons nos recommandations sur KONE (la modernisation comme relais de la...