reports
- Blair Levin
The Cost of the Deal: What Does the Skydance/Paramount Situation Tell ...
Paramount is entering into mediation to resolve the litigation with President Trump and remove a barrier to FCC approval of the pending acquisition by Skydance. In this note we update our thoughts on what the deal’s process tells us about pending and future deals can expect from the government approval process.
- Jonathan Chaplin
CHTR and CMCSA: correcting price comparisons
This note corrects the pricing comparison we showed for Comcast and Charter last week. When we checked pricing on the Charter website, we were presented with an old Spectrum One offer, for some reason. In this note, we include a more complete comparison of pricing across both categories of offers available at both companies. The punchline: Charter’s rack rates have come down a lot.
- Jonathan Chaplin
Charter Post-1Q25 Model Update
This note focuses on model changes. Please see separate notes reviewing results and on thoughts following the earnings call. The major changes were higher broadband losses and higher EBITDA in 2025. We expect Consensus to increase broadband losses but also increase EBITDA. Our near-term price target is $448 (+21%). With broadband revaluation and M&A, stock could get to $759 (+105%).
- Jonathan Chaplin
CHTR: quick thoughts following the 1Q25 call
We just wrapped the earnings call (which was brief; efficient). This will be a similarly brief and efficient note that touches on the drivers of the difference in broadband trends between Comcast and Charter, where we think EBITDA growth expectations will go following results, and what it means for repurchases and valuation. We also touch on tariff and macro impact briefly.
- Jonathan Chaplin
CHTR 1Q25 Quick Take: Net adds a little soft; EBITDA beat
Net adds missed estimates, but the miss was less severe than some might have feared following Comcast’s results. Importantly, adds in existing markets improved year-over-year. EBITDA growth was 3.5% after adjusting for a one-time benefit. This was well ahead of expectations. Estimates for EBITDA and FCF will likely increase for the year. Repurchases are back, and the Company seemed to reaffirm a leverage target of 4.25x. Repurchase estimates should increase too with higher EBITDA and FCF.
- Jonathan Chaplin
Comcast Post-1Q25 Model Update
What’s new: In this note, we cover changes to our estimates, and comparisons with guidance and consensus. Please see separate notes reviewing results and thoughts following the earnings call. The most significant changes are higher broadband losses and lower EBITDA in 2025. We expect Consensus to increase broadband losses as well as lower EBITDA. No change to thesis. Price target is $38 (+15%).
- Jonathan Chaplin
CMCSA: Quick thoughts following the call 1Q25
What’s new: in this note we cover the source of the pressure Comcast is seeing on broadband growth (market vs competition), we cover the potential causes of slower market growth, we cover the causes of competitive pressures and the impact of recent pricing changes, and we touch on implications for ARPU and EBITDA growth.
- Jonathan Chaplin
- Blair Levin
In Good News for CMSCA, DIS (and Robocallers and Pirate Radio, Among O...
What’s New: The Fifth Circuit overturned the FCC’s 2020 and 2024 decisions to impose a $57 million fine against T for actions related to improper use customer data. Based on a recent Supreme Court decision, the appellate court ruled that the FCC actions violate T’s Seventh Amendment right to a jury trial, likely upending broader FCC enforcement efforts. In this note we analyze the impact of the Court’s decision on our coverage universe generally and well as specifically to some of the companie...
- Jonathan Chaplin
CMCSA: Free Wireless Line for All Broadband Customers
What’s new: Wepublished a brief note yesterday on the rising competitive intensity in Wireless following T-Mobile’s launch of new plans. Later in the day, Comcast launched a new Wireless plan and new free-line promotions too. We cover Comcast’s new offers and the implications for the Company and the group in this brief note.
- Blair Levin
Another Starlink v. DISH Spectrum Battle
What’s New: Another front has opened in the long running war between SpaceX/Starlink and DISH/EchoStar. In this latest one, SpaceX argues that DISH’s utilization of its AWS-4 band should compel the FCC to start a rulemaking to establish a new framework for sharing the 2 GHz MSS band. In this note, we summarize SpaceX’s arguments, DISH’s response, what FCC precedent and the relevant Trump agenda tells us, as well as the great unknown about the level of Musk’s influence at the FCC.
- Blair Levin
BEAD Data Shows CMSCA Active in Many States
With all but four states having started and/or completed their prequalification process for eligibility for BEAD funding, there is new data showing high levels of participation by CMSCA and CHTR, with significant levels of participation by T and FBYR (to be acquired by VZ.) In this note we discuss that data and state of play as the states move forward and the Department of Commerce aims for a decision in about a month (which we think is likely to be delayed) for resolving how the BEAD should be...
- Vikash Harlalka
- Jonathan Chaplin
Conflicting expectations in mobile and broadband
In our Broadband Trends report published this week, we show that bottom-up forecasts are well below our top-down forecast. The disconnect is all in Cable, and mostly in Comcast. We don’t have enough conviction in our top-down forecast to make a call on Comcast, particularly ahead of 1Q25 results where management has provided very clear context on trends, but we suspect results for the year won’t be as bad as feared. By contrast in our Wireless Trends report last week, we showed that our forecas...
- Jonathan Chaplin
- Jonathan Chaplin
Further thoughts on tariff impacts on Fiber and Cable
We published our quick take on tariff impacts on Mobile and Broadband stocks last week. We haven’t learned much over the last week that would change our initial take for Wireless, or for Broadband revenues and costs. We hosted a lunch with Shentel yesterday that provided some new insights on the impact to fiber capex, with implications for Cable.
- Jonathan Chaplin
- Jonathan Chaplin
4Q24 Broadband Trends: Our broadband forecast
In this report we highlight a disconnect between our top-down forecast and our and “Consensus” bottom-up forecast for broadband subscribers. Either market growth is much worse than it appeared at the end of 2024, or Cable adds will be better than expected. We also update our top-down forecast and reprise our work on competitive positioning of the operators based on relative cNPS scores.
- Jonathan Chaplin
CHTR Quick Hit: 1Q25 Buybacks At $0.8BN; Lowering Buyback Estimate Sli...
Advance / Newhouse filed their latest Charter ownership disclosure late last week. The buyback amount for the quarter was slightly below our prior estimate. As such, we are lowering our share repurchase estimate for 1Q25 to $820MM.
- Jonathan Chaplin
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