reports
- Blair Levin
In Good News for CMSCA, DIS (and Robocallers and Pirate Radio, Among O...
What’s New: The Fifth Circuit overturned the FCC’s 2020 and 2024 decisions to impose a $57 million fine against T for actions related to improper use customer data. Based on a recent Supreme Court decision, the appellate court ruled that the FCC actions violate T’s Seventh Amendment right to a jury trial, likely upending broader FCC enforcement efforts. In this note we analyze the impact of the Court’s decision on our coverage universe generally and well as specifically to some of the companie...
- Blair Levin
BEAD Data Shows CMSCA Active in Many States
With all but four states having started and/or completed their prequalification process for eligibility for BEAD funding, there is new data showing high levels of participation by CMSCA and CHTR, with significant levels of participation by T and FBYR (to be acquired by VZ.) In this note we discuss that data and state of play as the states move forward and the Department of Commerce aims for a decision in about a month (which we think is likely to be delayed) for resolving how the BEAD should be...
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Tariffs – How would a recession affect our coverage?
The tariffs announced by the Trump administration in the last two weeks have resulted in major swings in the stock market and broader concerns regarding the global economy. We developed a framework to understand the situation and interpret its daily evolution last week and follow up today with an initial perspective on potential macro implications.
PANW PALO ALTO NETWORKS INC.
NVDA NVIDIA CORPORATION
LRCX LAM RESEARCH CORPORATION
NOKIA NOKIA OYJ
2330 TSMC
SOI SOITEC SA
CSCO CISCO SYSTEMS INC.
ASML ASML HOLDING NV
MBLY MOBILEYE NV
AMD ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC.
AAPL APPLE INC.
MSFT MICROSOFT CORPORATION
AVGO BROADCOM INC.
IFX INFINEON TECHNOLOGIES AG
ERIC.B ERICSSON
ERIC-B ERICSSON LM-B SHS
0084207D UBER TECHNOLOGIES INC
WOLF WOLFSPEED INC
GRAB GRAB HLDGS LTD
ARM ARM HOLDINGS PLC
- Pierre FerraguÊ
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Getting over Tariffs – Step back. Rethink. Move on.
Swings observed in the last 10 days has been second to none. The Great Financial Crisis and Covid didn’t get us in a worst spot. Make no mistake: The markets are panicking today even more than when the world came to a COVID standstill, with the individual contributors to the vast majority of the world’s GDP locked down. How reasonable is that? Very little, in our view. The polarization of the political landscape has created a global brain freeze. Few analyses calmly assess the U.S. administrati...
- Jonathan Chaplin
Conflicting expectations in mobile and broadband
In our Broadband Trends report published this week, we show that bottom-up forecasts are well below our top-down forecast. The disconnect is all in Cable, and mostly in Comcast. We don’t have enough conviction in our top-down forecast to make a call on Comcast, particularly ahead of 1Q25 results where management has provided very clear context on trends, but we suspect results for the year won’t be as bad as feared. By contrast in our Wireless Trends report last week, we showed that our forecas...
- Jonathan Chaplin
- Jonathan Chaplin
Further thoughts on tariff impacts on Fiber and Cable
We published our quick take on tariff impacts on Mobile and Broadband stocks last week. We haven’t learned much over the last week that would change our initial take for Wireless, or for Broadband revenues and costs. We hosted a lunch with Shentel yesterday that provided some new insights on the impact to fiber capex, with implications for Cable.
- Jonathan Chaplin
4Q24 Broadband Trends: Our broadband forecast
In this report we highlight a disconnect between our top-down forecast and our and “Consensus” bottom-up forecast for broadband subscribers. Either market growth is much worse than it appeared at the end of 2024, or Cable adds will be better than expected. We also update our top-down forecast and reprise our work on competitive positioning of the operators based on relative cNPS scores.
- Jonathan Chaplin
CHTR Quick Hit: 1Q25 Buybacks At $0.8BN; Lowering Buyback Estimate Sli...
Advance / Newhouse filed their latest Charter ownership disclosure late last week. The buyback amount for the quarter was slightly below our prior estimate. As such, we are lowering our share repurchase estimate for 1Q25 to $820MM.
- Jonathan Chaplin
- Jonathan Chaplin
Charter Pre-1Q25 Model Update
This report covers changes to our model to incorporate recent management commentary at investor conferences. Our broadband losses for 1Q25 remain unchanged but we lowered wireless net adds for the year. Changes to financial estimates are minor. No change to thesis. We believe repurchases resumed post Liberty Broadband vote with $4BN of repurchases this year. Our near-term price target is $426 (+15%). With broadband revaluation and M&A, stock could get to $740 (+100%).
- Jonathan Chaplin
4Q24 Wireless Trends: Expectations for net adds are too high
This report focuses on drivers of subscriber growth in 2025. Expectations for net adds are too high, though expectations for service revenue and EBTDA look fine. We also reprised our work on comparative NPS, provide a comprehensive review of 4Q24 trends, and update our long-term forecast
- Pierre FerraguÊ
ARC-AGI-2: Pushing the measure of intelligence beyond test-time comput...
The ARC team has announced ARC-AGI-2 and published initial benchmarking results, after ARC-AGI-1 got saturated by o3. The race to AGI is reset. Fascinating. For what all investors need to understand about the most important benchmark of the industry, summarized on a single slide, see the attached article.
- Pierre FerraguÊ
The Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible 4Q24
We publish today our comprehensive quarterly bible: 240 pages of detailed analyses on what happened in the last 3 months, and how we interpret it, in light of our current convictions. The first section acts as a PM summary, outlining our key findings, and latest thoughts on the semi cycle, in 6 slides.
PANW PALO ALTO NETWORKS INC.
NVDA NVIDIA CORPORATION
LRCX LAM RESEARCH CORPORATION
NOKIA NOKIA OYJ
2330 TSMC
SOI SOITEC SA
CSCO CISCO SYSTEMS INC.
ASML ASML HOLDING NV
MBLY MOBILEYE NV
AMD ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC.
AAPL APPLE INC.
MSFT MICROSOFT CORPORATION
AVGO BROADCOM INC.
IFX INFINEON TECHNOLOGIES AG
TXG 10X GENOMICS INC CLASS A
ERIC.B ERICSSON
ERIC-B ERICSSON LM-B SHS
0084207D UBER TECHNOLOGIES INC
ME 23ANDME HLDG CO
WOLF WOLFSPEED INC
GRAB GRAB HLDGS LTD
ARM ARM HOLDINGS PLC
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Bible 4Q24: Enterprise IT – continued recovery in Legacy, stabilizatio...
Today, we are publishing the Enterprise IT section of our 26th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. Legacy IT spending recovery continued, with major players again reporting double-digit order growth across core legacy portfolios. Al server demand remained strong, although some revenue recognition ...
- Blair Levin
NSR Policy: What Does BEAD State Bidding Tell Us?
Last week, we provided several notes analyzing how Congressional Republicans and the Administration, as well as others, were debating changes in the BEAD program. While that rhetoric pointed to significant changes ahead, the states have been proceeding under the existing rules set in the Biden Administration, making significant progress in ways generally not reflected in the DC discussions. In this note, we summarize the state activity and ISP bidding to date. We analyze what the state activi...
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Bible 4Q24 – Hyperscale & Cloud: material capex revisions, now consist...
Today, we are publishing the Hyperscale & Cloud section of our 26th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. Hyperscale revenues grew 11% YoY, with cloud services stabilizing in the mid-20%, driven by strong demand for both traditional & AI infrastructure. Capex grew 73% YoY and 25% QoQ, 11% above con...
ANET ARISTA NETWORKS INC.
NVDA NVIDIA CORPORATION
MU MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC.
INTC INTEL CORPORATION
GOOGL ALPHABET INC. CLASS A
FB FACEBOOK INC. CLASS A
MRVL MARVELL TECHNOLOGY GROUP LTD.
CSCO CISCO SYSTEMS INC.
5930 SAMSUNG ELECTRONICS CO LTD
JNPR JUNIPER NETWORKS INC.
AMZN AMAZON.COM INC.
AMD ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC.
660 SK HYNIX INC
- Blair Levin
NSR Policy: BEAD Adjustments Certain but Details Still Cloudy
Yesterday, we published a note on whether T, VZ/FYBR and CHTR or Musk will come out on top with revisions to the BEAD program that Republicans are contemplating. As we noted, there are numerous changes we felt confident Republicans would do, such as removing a fiber preference, that will have no material impact on publicly traded companies. But there are several other changes that could, including whether the federal government will impose a high-cost threshold on states that will shift funds f...
- Blair Levin
Will T, VZ/FYBR and CHTR or Musk Come Out on Top with BEAD Revisions?
While the Trump Administration and Congressional Republicans have sent some signals about how they will revise the $42.5 Billion Biden Broadband Equity, Access and Deployment (BEAD) program, there has been no definitive word yet on key issues regarding those revisions. That may change today, when there is a congressional hearing on the program. In this note, we review the potential changes from the investor perspective, with a focus on the relative benefits to wireline broadband providers (par...
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