Despite global volatility our EM Top Picks posted positive returns again in April and now up 34% YTD on average. As we have been arguing for some time EM Telco is a much better space than it used to be and this is now being reflected by the market it seems.
A director at Telefonaktiebolaget L M Ericsson bought 2,829,987 shares at 79.729SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 68/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the ...
This note corrects the pricing comparison we showed for Comcast and Charter last week. When we checked pricing on the Charter website, we were presented with an old Spectrum One offer, for some reason. In this note, we include a more complete comparison of pricing across both categories of offers available at both companies. The punchline: Charter’s rack rates have come down a lot.
This note focuses on model changes. Please see separate notes reviewing results and on thoughts following the earnings call. The major changes were higher broadband losses and higher EBITDA in 2025. We expect Consensus to increase broadband losses but also increase EBITDA. Our near-term price target is $448 (+21%). With broadband revaluation and M&A, stock could get to $759 (+105%).
We just wrapped the earnings call (which was brief; efficient). This will be a similarly brief and efficient note that touches on the drivers of the difference in broadband trends between Comcast and Charter, where we think EBITDA growth expectations will go following results, and what it means for repurchases and valuation. We also touch on tariff and macro impact briefly.
Net adds missed estimates, but the miss was less severe than some might have feared following Comcast’s results. Importantly, adds in existing markets improved year-over-year. EBITDA growth was 3.5% after adjusting for a one-time benefit. This was well ahead of expectations. Estimates for EBITDA and FCF will likely increase for the year. Repurchases are back, and the Company seemed to reaffirm a leverage target of 4.25x. Repurchase estimates should increase too with higher EBITDA and FCF.
What’s New: The Fifth Circuit overturned the FCC’s 2020 and 2024 decisions to impose a $57 million fine against T for actions related to improper use customer data. Based on a recent Supreme Court decision, the appellate court ruled that the FCC actions violate T’s Seventh Amendment right to a jury trial, likely upending broader FCC enforcement efforts. In this note we analyze the impact of the Court’s decision on our coverage universe generally and well as specifically to some of the companie...
With all but four states having started and/or completed their prequalification process for eligibility for BEAD funding, there is new data showing high levels of participation by CMSCA and CHTR, with significant levels of participation by T and FBYR (to be acquired by VZ.) In this note we discuss that data and state of play as the states move forward and the Department of Commerce aims for a decision in about a month (which we think is likely to be delayed) for resolving how the BEAD should be...
Ericsson’s broad-based strength in its Q1 results and supportive Q2 guidance, undemanding valuation, and strong balance sheet could position it as a relative outperformer amid geopolitical uncertainty, in our view. That said, we see challenges mounting for H2e: 1) gross margin headwinds (key for its share price); 2) faded earnings and FCF momentum with -17% adj. EBITA and -32% FCF growth YOY in H2e; 3) low likelihood for share buybacks in 2025e, despite its over-capitalisation; and 4) potential ...
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