We have updated our BEAD analysis to include the proposal from Texas which was allocated the largest amount of BEAD funding. We now include BEAD proposals from 52 states & territories in our below analysis. We have also updated the analysis for states that have revised their proposals.
If you are one of those eager contrarians looking for the quarter where a combination of discount valuations and even a modest turnaround in cable KPI trends could boost the stocks, this probably ain’t it. The cable industry continues to lose subscribers at an elevated pace with Comcast doing worse than Charter thanks to the 1-2 punch of fiber and FWA.
After 8 extremely strong months, September bucked the trend. 6 of our Top Picks saw profit taking with only Airtel Africa, Millicom, Telefonica Brasil and LILAC posting positive returns. This note also includes key news & other thoughts, to try to help investors generate alpha within the EM Telco space. Having strongly outperformed we switch out Millicom for AMX which we now see as a cheaper, lower risk, way to play Latin American telcos.
In this latest update, we now include BEAD proposals from 51 states & territories. We have updated our analysis for Alaska, Florida and Utah. Comcast, Brightspeed and AT&T remain at the top of the list among wireline operators. Fiber remains the dominant technology both in terms of locations as well as funding.
Based on a leaked internal NTIA memo related to BEAD, it seems like the final proposals by the states may not be final and the NTIA may force them to make changes to their plans. We have analyzed all the proposals so far and estimate that Comcast, AT&T and Frontier may be most impacted by these rules. However, the overall impact isn’t material.
There has been an ongoing debate among investors whether low moves actually hurt the Cable companies. Until now, it wasn’t possible to answer this question due to lack of data. We now have data from Opensignal that helps us answer this question. In this report, we show that the large Cable operators have been winning more than 50% share among movers who are new to their footprint. The win share has declined over time, especially as competitive intensity has increased. Cable operators can reduce ...
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