HEADLINES: • Aegean Airlines: after a strong 1Q, earnings momentum may slow (downgrade to HOLD) • Halyk Savings Bank: acquires 49% of Uzbekistan’s Click POSITIVE • MONETA: 2Q25 results in line - guidance offers CZK 300-400m of upside risk to the bank's 2025E net profit forecast NEUTRAL • Wizz Air: 1QF26 results - EBITDA 5% below our estimate, 14% below consensus NEGATIVE • Bank Pekao: Polish FinMin is drafting a bill to ban the sale of the State-owned shares of the bank NEUTRAL • GTC: Fitch down...
Since upgrading Aegean to a BUY in November last year, the stock has generated a total return of 49%, outperforming its European airline peers by 10%, and the Athens Stock Exchange by 5% over the period. We set our new 12M PT at EUR 14.0/share and downgrade Aegean to HOLD, as we believe the near-term earnings (2Q-3Q25E) could trail last year’s results slightly. After a very strong 1Q25, weaker near-term results could translate into the stock losing some momentum in the coming months. That said, ...
HEADLINES: • EMEA Airlines: 2Q25 traffic - Easter good, conflict bad • GEK Terna: motorway traffic grows faster than expected in 1H25 POSITIVE • Benefit Systems: changes in the Supervisory Board NEUTRAL • Allegro: expands its delivery network via a partnership with Zabka, adding 11,600+ new pick-up points NEUTRAL • Jahez: takeaways from the conference call on the Snoonu deal POSITIVE • Titan Cement: 2Q25E financial results preview (due on 31 July)
Calendar 2Q25 started off well for the sector, benefitting from the Easter effect and low fuel prices, but many airlines experienced disruptions to their networks later in the quarter, following Israel’s attack on Iran. Demand for flying seems broadly resilient so far, with fares helped by limited capacity growth in Europe, due to supply constraints. As we move into the peak season, Air Traffic Control (ATC) remains a bottleneck, especially as parts of the European network remain closed to traff...
HEADLINES: • DataWalk: returning like a phoenix from the ashes (HOLD) • EU macro: Commission presents the new budget • cyber_Folks/Shoper: resign from large acquisition in the e-commerce space and bets on the development of own solutions NEGATIVE • OPAP: Greek gaming market growth accelerates further in May POSITIVE • Aegean Airlines: adds two A321neo XLRs, plans to start flying to India in March 2026E • GTC: buys out German minorities • CD Projekt: free update 2.3 for Cyberpunk 2077 today NEUTR...
HEADLINES: • Romania macro: discussing a new fiscal package with the EU • Romanian banks: government to increase tax on gross revenues to 4% NEGATIVE • EME Macro/Strategy – Poland: bigger, happier but also more divided • Poland macro: MPC reduces the policy rate by 25bps • Text: 1Q25-26 (calendar 2Q25) preliminary results – MRR of USD 7.17m (up 0.7% qoq, up 1.4% yoy); 928 net LiveChat customers outflow NEGATIVE • Mo-BRUK: guiding for PLN 33m outflow related to the 2018-19 increased fees; PLN 50-...
EME Equity Market – June 2025 All EME indices in the green in June, with a rebound in Türkiye. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced by 3.2% mom in EUR terms and 6.9% in USD terms. The Turkish ISE 30 Index was the best performer in our region, recouping the losses from the previous month and adding +6.6% mom in EUR terms. The Hungarian BUX and the Polish WIG indices added 3.1% and 2.8% mom in EUR terms, respectively, followed closely by the Romanian BET and the Greek ASE, with both adding 2.0% mom i...
A director at Aegean Airlines S.A. bought 25,000 shares at 11.575EUR and the significance rating of the trade was 53/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years ...
HEADLINES: • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (16-22 June) • Turkish Airlines: confirms talks over Air Europa stake purchase NEUTRAL • Aegean Airlines: may issue EUR 200-250m of new bonds NEUTRAL • GEVORKYAN: might raise up to 3.5m shares in the next 5Y NEUTRAL • EME Strategy: MSCI 2025 Global Market Accessibility Review
HEADLINES: • OPAP: 1Q25 – strong, as expected NEUTRAL • CD Projekt: 1Q25 EBIT broadly as expected, guidance on three unannounced projects POSITIVE • VIGO Photonics: adjusted EBITDA up 2x yoy (on a low base), in line with our estimate NEUTRAL • DataWalk: actual 1Q25 numbers fully in line with the preliminaries NEUTRAL • Kazatomprom: 1Q25 results – much weaker than expected NEGATIVE • Lamda Development: 1Q25 results – opex outside the Ellinikon better than expected, but quarterly capex still slow ...
EME Equity Market – April 2025 EME indices mostly in the red in April, Hungarian BUX and Greek ASE the exceptions. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 2.0% mom in EUR terms, but was up 2.9% mom in USD terms in April. The Hungarian BUX was the best performer, followed by the Greek ASE index (+3.5% and 0.8% mom in EUR terms, respectively). There was a slight decline in the Polish WIG20, and more pronounced deteriorations in the Romanian BET and Czech PX indices (-0.6%, -2.0% and -4.2% mom in EUR ...
HEADLINES: • Mo-BRUK: 4Q24 results miss expectations, on jumping SG&A costs NEGATIVE • Orange Polska: 1Q25 results – EBITDAaL up 3% yoy, in line with the consensus; 2025E guidance reiterated NEUTRAL • Kety: 1Q25 results and new strategy presentation call takeaways NEUTRAL • EMEA airlines: 1Q25 traffic; demand concerns vs. cheaper USD and oil • CEZ: ANO promising privatisation and lower fees NEGATIVE • Metlen Energy & Metals: sells Chilean RES for USD 815m (EUR 710m) POSITIVE • Polish banks: Trea...
Exposed to the strength of consumer demand and with high operating leverage, European airlines have been under pressure lately (albeit less so than their US peers), on concerns about the economy, in the face of the escalating trade conflict. While, at c.4%, the 2025E market capacity growth is muted, around half of last year’s pace, it could still prove too fast, if the Eurozone GDP remains stagnant this year. Within the next 1-2M, we should start to get better visibility on the crucial summer RA...
HEADLINES: • Enea: full 4Q24 results in line with preliminaries; PLN 7.9bn capex planned in 2025E NEGATIVE • Cyfrowy Polsat: 4Q24 results review – adjusted EBITDA up 15% yoy, in line with the consensus NEUTRAL • Kruk: issues 1Q25 trading statement NEUTRAL • Aegean Airlines: 1Q25 traffic – a strong start to the year POSITIVE • Turkish Airlines: 1Q25 traffic – 4% ASK growth yoy NEUTRAL • Auto Partner: March sales growth recovers to 13% yoy, but still well below our FY expectations NEUTRAL • Bank M...
EME Equity Market – March 2025 Türkiye hammered, once again. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced 0.5% in EUR terms and 4.5% mom in USD terms in March. The Czech PX Index was the best performer (+7.0% mom in EUR terms), followed by the Greek ASE (+4.8% mom), Polish WIG (+3.7% mom) and Hungarian BUX(+1.3% mom) indices (all in EUR terms). There was a muted performance from the Romanian BET Index (-0.1% mom in EUR terms). The Turkish ISE30 finished in the red again, declining 9.5% mom in EUR terms.
HEADLINES: • Diagnostyka: take a test (BUY - initiation of coverage) • EME Macro/Strategy: Ukraine – a macro primer • EME Macro/Strategy: Ukraine’s peace deal – WOOD’s equity playbook • EMEA airlines: some notes on the potential Ukraine reopening • Aegean Airlines: 4Q24 – material beat vs. our estimates, on higher revenue and lower employee costs POSITIVE • Dom Development: 4Q24 – strongest year on record POSITIVE • Vercom: 4Q24 results review – 29% yoy EBITDA growth, in line with the consensus ...
In our airlines coverage, we see Wizz Air (BUY, PT GBP 20) as the key beneficiary of a potential re-opening of Ukraine. We expect Ryanair and Wizz Air to move in strongly to Ukraine after it reopens, and we expect that the two carriers may end up with a large share of the Ukrainian aviation market. Given that European aviation capacity growth in 2025E is forecast by both IATA and Eurocontrol only at a mid-single digit pace, constrained by supply-chain issues, the gradual return of traffic to Isr...
HEADLINES: • Jahez: slightly positive 4Q24 results – beat on adjusted EBITDA, miss on net revenue POSITIVE • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (3-9 March) • Auto Partner: February sales growth decelerates to a mere 2% yoy NEGATIVE • PGE: signs PLN 1.26bn agreement to construct energy storage facility NEUTRAL • Aegean Airlines: January-February traffic up 9% yoy NEUTRAL • Turkish Airlines: traffic growth slowed in February NEUTRAL • Turkish food retail: Competition Board launches investigation...
HEADLINES: • EMEA airlines: 4Q24 traffic; could constrained capacity support fares in 2025E? • PZU: CEO Olech dismissed, former CEO Klesyk returns • PCF Group: reveals details behind Maverick work-for-hire project NEUTRAL • Krka: 4Q24E earnings preview (due on 30 January) • Alior Bank: 4Q24E preview (due on 4 March)
In 2024, European aviation capacity grew by around 9%. This was faster than the slow-growing economy could absorb, leading to fares underperforming expectations. For many carriers, we have also seen cost inflation. The lower fuel prices were an important tailwind, preventing margin erosion exceeding 1-2ppts (EBITDA) for the European carriers. Looking ahead, we expect capacity in Europe to grow by around a mid-single digit pace in 2025E, constrained by supply bottlenecks and engine durability iss...
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