EME Equity Market – September 2025 Romanian BET led in September, while Türkiye and Hungary lagged. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 0.7% mom in EUR terms and 1.1% in USD terms. The Romanian BET was the top performer, adding 3.6% in EUR terms; followed by the Czech PX (+3.2% mom) and the Polish WIG20 (+1.1% mom) (all in EUR terms); while there was a muted performance from the Greek ASE (+0.6% mom in EUR terms). The Turkish ISE30 and the Hungarian BUX were the worst performing indices in September(...
We have revised our forecasts for Aegean Airlines, following the 1H25 results, maintaining our HOLD rating and nudging our 12M PT upwards to EUR 14.5. Our forecast changes for 3Q-4Q25E are minor, reflecting stronger-than-expected capacity growth. Management remains upbeat on the late-summer demand, and we have raised our 2H25E earnings slightly vs. our prior estimates. We continue to highlight Aegean’s strong cash generation, which could improve in FY26E, as PDPs turn into inflows. With a core a...
A director at Lamda Development S.A. sold 8,000 shares at 7.793EUR and the significance rating of the trade was 55/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years cl...
The malls and marinas results are in line with our estimates. The Ellinikon capex accelerated to EUR 100m in 2Q25 – good, but an even faster rate of deployment is still needed. A material revaluation gain was booked in 2Q25, driven by yield compression at the existing malls. Bottom line: nothing in the 2Q25 results comes close in importance to the huge land sale that Lamda agreed recently.
HEADLINES: • Allegro: 1Q25 results spot on our expectations; lower bound of FY25E guidance increased POSITIVE • Colt CZ Group: 2Q25 results – slightly below the consensus; no changes in FY25E guidance • Mavi: 2Q25 results miss expectations; 2025E guidance lowered NEGATIVE • Echo Investment: 2Q25 – sales could unlock net cash equivalent to one-third of market cap • Auto Partner: 2Q25 EBITDA broadly in line with our and the market's expectations NEUTRAL • Lamda Development: 2Q25 – yield compressio...
Aegean's 2Q25 numbers are fully in line with our estimates. The operating cash flow after leases is down by around 30% compared to the previous two years. However, the guidance on the summer sounds optimistic, and offers possible upside for our ASK estimate for 3Q25E. This may, however, may be offset by the RASK being slightly weaker in 3Q25E, reportedly (we have been pencilling it in as flat yoy). The company is guiding for a brisk 9% seat growth in 4Q25E, which could indicate some upside for t...
HEADLINES: • Noval Property: 1H25 – FFO en route to exceed our FY estimate POSITIVE • Aegean Airlines: 2Q25 in line; cash flow contracting; guidance encouraging NEUTRAL • Tauron: 2Q25 results fully in line with the preliminaries NEUTRAL • OMV Petrom: special dividend proposal POSITIVE • Shoper: acquires remaining 40% stake in Sempire for PLN 15m, as expected NEUTRAL • Solutions by STC: signs framework agreement with Saudi Aramco POSITIVE
EME Equity Market – August 2025 Corrections in Poland and the broader MSCI EM Europe. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 2.3% mom in EUR terms and was flat (0.0%) in USD terms in August. The Hungarian BUX was the top performer, adding 2.2% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Romanian BET (+1.9% mom), the Czech PX (+1.7% mom) and the Greek ASE (+1.4% mom) (all in EUR terms); while there was a muted performance from the Turkish ISE 30 (+0.4% mom in EUR terms). The biggest loser was the Polish WIG ...
HEADLINES: • Allegro: August is harvest time (downgraded to HOLD) • Hungary macro: challenging conditions keeping fiscal pressure high • Patria Bank: solid delivery in 2Q25 POSITIVE • Premier Energy: 2Q25 normalised EBITDA in line with our expectations NEUTRAL • 4iG: 2Q25 results review – 11% yoy increase in reported EBITDA, 3% above our estimate NEUTRAL • CA Immo: 2Q25 – continued progress with disposals; cancels treasury shares, launches new buyback • MedLife: takeaways from the 2Q25 earnings ...
Yesterday (28 August), Lamda announced the sale of almost 10% of the total Ellinikon buildable area to ION Group, to create a large office campus, along with residential compounds for its employees. This is a major deal for Lamda, and material positive news for the company, in our view. The transaction frontloads cash inflows, and reduces the execution risk in the Ellinikon project significantly. To put the proceeds into perspective: altogether, Lamda needs to pay EUR 950m for the Ellinikon land...
HEADLINES: • OTP Bank: all about capital returns (stays BUY) • Colt CZ Group SE: acquires SNC – a strategic move POSITIVE • 11 bit studios: 2Q25 EBITDA 14-24% above our and the market's expectations; guidance on new projects POSITIVE • CD Projekt: 2Q25 EBITDA 19-24% above our and the market's expectations POSITIVE • Text: 1Q25-26 (calendar 2Q25) results – EBITDA down 21% yoy, 5% below the consensus NEGATIVE • Sphera Group: 2Q25 soft, but better than we expected; FY25E budget cut NEGATIVE • MedLi...
EME Equity Market – July 2025 EME indices all in the green in July. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced by 6.0% mom in EUR terms and 3.0% in USD terms. The Turkish ISE30 was, once again, the top performer, adding 7.9% mom in EUR terms, followed very closely by the Romanian BET, advancing 7.8% mom in EUR terms. The Greek ASE added 6.8% mom in EUR terms, while the Czech PX added 4.5% mom in EUR terms. The Hungarian BUX and Polish WIG20 added 3.6% and 3.0% mom, respectively, in EUR terms.
HEADLINES: • Rainbow Tours: on the road to riches (BUY - initiation of coverage) • Erste Bank: 2Q25 results beat on positive one-off; solid performance in core result leads to 2025E guidance uplift POSITIVE • Jeronimo Martins: minor beat in 2Q25; FY25E guidance maintained POSITIVE • Eurobank Ergasias Services: 2Q25 highlights – a clean 14% beat vs. our estimate POSITIVE • National Bank of Greece: 2Q25 highlights – in line, with guidance upgrade POSITIVE • Optima Bank SA: bottom-line beat in 2Q25...
HEADLINES: • Aegean Airlines: after a strong 1Q, earnings momentum may slow (downgrade to HOLD) • Halyk Savings Bank: acquires 49% of Uzbekistan’s Click POSITIVE • MONETA: 2Q25 results in line - guidance offers CZK 300-400m of upside risk to the bank's 2025E net profit forecast NEUTRAL • Wizz Air: 1QF26 results - EBITDA 5% below our estimate, 14% below consensus NEGATIVE • Bank Pekao: Polish FinMin is drafting a bill to ban the sale of the State-owned shares of the bank NEUTRAL • GTC: Fitch down...
Since upgrading Aegean to a BUY in November last year, the stock has generated a total return of 49%, outperforming its European airline peers by 10%, and the Athens Stock Exchange by 5% over the period. We set our new 12M PT at EUR 14.0/share and downgrade Aegean to HOLD, as we believe the near-term earnings (2Q-3Q25E) could trail last year’s results slightly. After a very strong 1Q25, weaker near-term results could translate into the stock losing some momentum in the coming months. That said, ...
HEADLINES: • EMEA Airlines: 2Q25 traffic - Easter good, conflict bad • GEK Terna: motorway traffic grows faster than expected in 1H25 POSITIVE • Benefit Systems: changes in the Supervisory Board NEUTRAL • Allegro: expands its delivery network via a partnership with Zabka, adding 11,600+ new pick-up points NEUTRAL • Jahez: takeaways from the conference call on the Snoonu deal POSITIVE • Titan Cement: 2Q25E financial results preview (due on 31 July)
Calendar 2Q25 started off well for the sector, benefitting from the Easter effect and low fuel prices, but many airlines experienced disruptions to their networks later in the quarter, following Israel’s attack on Iran. Demand for flying seems broadly resilient so far, with fares helped by limited capacity growth in Europe, due to supply constraints. As we move into the peak season, Air Traffic Control (ATC) remains a bottleneck, especially as parts of the European network remain closed to traff...
HEADLINES: • DataWalk: returning like a phoenix from the ashes (HOLD) • EU macro: Commission presents the new budget • cyber_Folks/Shoper: resign from large acquisition in the e-commerce space and bets on the development of own solutions NEGATIVE • OPAP: Greek gaming market growth accelerates further in May POSITIVE • Aegean Airlines: adds two A321neo XLRs, plans to start flying to India in March 2026E • GTC: buys out German minorities • CD Projekt: free update 2.3 for Cyberpunk 2077 today NEUTR...
HEADLINES: • Aselsan: to tap DIRCM market POSITIVE • Romania macro: Government survives vote of no confidence, as expected • Wizz Air: to exit Abu Dhabi by the end of the summer • Bank Pekao: to book PLN 417m of extra provisions related to various legal risks in 2Q25E NEUTRAL • Grupa Pracuj: new job ads on Pracuj.pl at 395,000 in 1H25, flat yoy NEUTRAL • Lamda Development: completes early repayment of EUR 230m retail bond NEUTRAL • MONETA Money Bank: 2Q25E preview (due on 24 July) • Bank Millenn...
HEADLINES: • Romania macro: discussing a new fiscal package with the EU • Romanian banks: government to increase tax on gross revenues to 4% NEGATIVE • EME Macro/Strategy – Poland: bigger, happier but also more divided • Poland macro: MPC reduces the policy rate by 25bps • Text: 1Q25-26 (calendar 2Q25) preliminary results – MRR of USD 7.17m (up 0.7% qoq, up 1.4% yoy); 928 net LiveChat customers outflow NEGATIVE • Mo-BRUK: guiding for PLN 33m outflow related to the 2018-19 increased fees; PLN 50-...
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