A director at Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd bought 69,500 shares at 17.580CNY and the significance rating of the trade was 62/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two y...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Small-Mid Cap Biweekly: Pet food exports on track for recovery; beneficiary: Yantai China Pet Food. Results BYD Company (1211 HK/BUY/HK$246.20/Target: HK$630.00): 3Q23: Earnings up 82% yoy and 53% qoq, in line. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$630.00. China Construction Bank (939 HK/BUY/HK$4.48/Target: HK$6.00): 3Q23: Results in line; earnings up 2.6% on lower credit costs. China Merchants Bank Co. (3968 HK/BUY/HK$30.30/Target: HK$45.00): 3Q23: Results miss; longer wait need...
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Insurance Outstanding 1H23 results from PICC P&C, Ping An and Prudential. Results China Longyuan Power (916 HK/BUY/HK$6.27/Target: HK$8.80) 1H23: Above expectations; wind power utilisation hours grew 8.4% yoy. China Merchants Port (144 HK/BUY/HK$9.46/Target: HK$13.33) 1H23: Results broadly in line; attractive valuation amid cautious outlook. Maintain BUY. CR Land (1109 HK/BUY/HK$33.25/Target: HK$47.48) 1H23: Results beat expectations; leading market position further str...
Gold and copper futures retraced from the multi-month peak on 14 April on the hawkish statement from the Fed governor. Traders now see over 80% odds of a 25bp rate hike in the next FOMC meeting. Weakening steel prices have further compressed steel mills’ profitability. With steel production still hovering at high levels, we see strong inventory pressure ahead. Cement prices have continued weakening while inventory is piling up, due to high capacity utilisation and a lack of incremental demand fr...
Signs of the US economy slowing down are fuelling recession concerns, and also boosted gold prices to above $2,000 last week. Iron ore prices have slumped on concerns over slowing demand and stricter supervision on speculation activities by NDRC. Steel products’ prices are falling on lacklustre downstream demand. The pace of steel products’ inventory digestion has slowed to -0.7% wow whereas production output continues to expand. Cement prices have weakened due to the recent rainy weather.
Zijin reported 2022 earnings of Rmb20,042m (+27.9% yoy), largely in line with market expectations. Gross margin was flattish at 15.7%, and gross profit margin of mineproduced products fell to 54.3% (-4.69ppt yoy), dragged by the 8.4% yoy decline in mine-produced copper ASP. The depreciation of renminbi is expected to continue weighing on production cost in 2023. Mine-produced copper and gold is expected to grow by 33%/61% yoy in the next three years. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$15.60.
GREATER CHINA Results China Merchants Bank (3968 HK/BUY/HK$39.30 /Target: HK$58.00): 2022: Results in line; loan repricing the key challenge in 2023. ENN Energy Holdings (2688 HK/BUY/HK$101.70/Target: HK$128.00): 2022: Core profit in line with expectations. Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group Company (3692 HK/BUY/HK$13.54/Target:HK$18.00): 2022: Earnings down 4.8% yoy; expect double-digit revenue growth in 2023. Kingboard Laminates (1888 HK/HOLD/HK$9.21/Target: HK$8.30): 2022: Net profit in line with pr...
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results China Merchants Bank (3968 HK/BUY/HK$39.30 /Target: HK$58.00) 2022: Results in line; loan repricing the key challenge in 2023. ENN Energy Holdings (2688 HK/BUY/HK$101.70/Target: HK$128.00) 2022: Core profit in line with expectations. Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group Company (3692 HK/BUY/HK$13.54/Target:HK$18.00) 2022: Earnings down 4.8% yoy; expect double-digit revenue growth in 2023. Kingboard Laminates (1888 HK/HOLD/HK$9.21/Target: HK$8.30) 2022: Net profit in line with p...
China has set 2023 real GDP growth target at around 5%, at the low end of market expectations. Absence of major stimulus for the embattled property sector and infrastructure investments are hurting market sentiment, in addition to the modest LGSB issuance quota of Rmb3.8t for 2023. Infrastructure investments will remain as the key pillar for basic materials’ demand in 2023. We are cautious on the sustainability of the demand recovery as the effects of pent-up demand gradually subside.
Strong rebound in US Jan 23 PPI is fuelling concerns about the Fed staying firm with their hawkish stance. The 10-year treasury yield and US dollar index are currently at a six-week high. Steel product prices reacted positively to the slowdown in steel product inventory build-up, although the strength and sustainability of the demand recovery in the current upcycle remain in doubt. Cement prices and inventory levels continued to improve as resumption of construction activities started to gain tr...
Gold and copper prices are expected to be under pressure in the near term as the Fed has reaffirmed its view that interest rates will have to keep rising in order to contain inflation. The upward momentum of iron ore futures’ and steel products’ prices has started to ease due to the slower-than-expected downstream demand recovery after the Chinese New Year holidays, with inventory levels continuing to expand. Cement prices have started to rebound with inventory levels reversing down; a recovery ...
2023 will provide good trading opportunities as an improving Chinese economy comes up against the Fed’s tightening cycle. China’s reopening should buoy equities in 1H23 and we are OVERWEIGHT on the reopening, reflation beneficiaries and structural growth themes in tech and industrials. 2H23 may see rising downside risk if Fed fund rates stay high and global growth slows further. Under our base-case forecast, MSCI China will hit a high of 74pt in 1H23, with the year-end target at 55pt.
2023 will provide good trading opportunities as an improving Chinese economy comes up against the Fed’s tightening cycle. China’s reopening should buoy equities in 1H23 and we are OVERWEIGHT on the reopening, reflation beneficiaries and structural growth themes in tech and industrials. 2H23 may see rising downside risk if Fed fund rates stay high and global growth slows further. Under our base-case forecast, MSCI China will hit a high of 74pt in 1H23, with the year-end target at 55pt. Normalc...
Zijin’s 9M22 earnings grew 47.5% yoy to Rmb16,667m, in line with our expectation. Early commissioning of phase 2 of the Kamoa project has contributed to their 55.0% expansion of copper production volume. Zijin plans to issue Rmb10b convertible bonds to fund new M&As and project construction. The company has also allocated Rmb250m-500m to a share buyback programme that will then be used for an employee share incentive programme. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$13.30.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Consumer Expecting more optimising policies; pay attention to beer’s cost decline in 4Q22. Results Fuyao Glass Industry Group (3606 HK/BUY/HK$30.80/Target: HK$45.00) 3Q22: Earnings up 50% yoy and 0.5% qoq, beating estimate. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$45.00. Great Wall Motor (2333 HK/BUY/HK$7.56/Target: HK$13.00) 3Q22: Core net profit up 181% yoy and 202% qoq, in line with estimates. Maintain BUY. Cut target price to HK$13.00 on a higher risk premium. Zijin Mining (2...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: September Conviction Calls: We expect increased market volatility with downside bias in Sep 22. Add Weimob to our SELL list. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Outperformance in Aug 22: Our picks: ENAK, UNVR, BMRI, BBNI, SMGR, TLKM, KLBF and MAPI. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Some Opportunities Despite Risk-Off: Aug 22 Alpha Picks performed in line with FBMKLCI. Sep 22 picks: Alliance Bank, GENM, MyEG, Press Metal, Sunway REIT, VS Industry and Yinson. SINGAP...
Zijin’s 1H22 earnings increased 90% to Rmb12,630m (+90% yoy), representing 56.8% of the full-year earnings forecast. Earnings growth was supported by the 70.5%/22.8% yoy growth of its copper and gold production output and 263.1% yoy growth in investment income. Zijin’s gross margin remained resilient at 17.1% (+2.6ppt). Signs of copper and gold prices bottoming out should support the eventual valuation recovery of the company. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$14.80.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics Money Supply Credit growth below expectations as property sector woes bite. Sector Consumer Remain upbeat on CTGDF; maintain Li Ning as top sportswear pick. Results Li Ning Company (2331 HK/BUY/HK$70.10/Target: HK$98.10) 1H22: Solid results on high base; robust sales momentum to continue. Zijin Mining (2899 HK/BUY/HK$9.50/Target: HK$14.80) 1H22: In line with expectations; copper production volume grew 71% yoy.
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