ESSO reported a net profit of Bt4.6b for 3Q23, reversing from a loss of Bt1.3b in 2Q23 and a loss of Bt3.1b in 3Q22. Excluding an inventory gain of Bt2.7b, ESSO’s core profit rose by 84% yoy and 545% qoq to Bt2.5b, exceeding our estimate by 100% due to higher-than-expected market GRM. Despite a lower GRM outlook, we expect ESSO to maintain its core earnings at a breakeven level in 4Q23. We also expect profit to remain solid in 2024 with a dividend yield of 8.4%. Maintain BUY. Target price: Bt15....
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results AP Thailand (AP TB/BUY/Bt11.10/Target: Bt13.50) 3Q23: Earnings up 20% yoy and 10% qoq, in line with expectations. Esso Thailand (ESSO TB/BUY/Bt9.55/Target: Bt15.00) 3Q23: Resilient quarter, results beat expectations. Thai Union Group (TU TB/BUY/Bt14.10/Target: Bt17.40) 3Q23: Higher-than-expected core earnings; organic growth to resume in 2024.
GREATER CHINA Economics Trade: Disappointing October exports likely a prelude to further weakness. Sector Property: Land markets remain weak, Shenzhen expresses firm support for Vanke. Update Prudential (2378 HK/BUY/HK$84.90/Target: HK$150.00): Strong NBP growth momentum sustained in 3Q23. INDONESIA Update Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ/BUY/Rp344/Target: Rp440): Expect 9% yoy net profit growth in 2024 from improvement in stores’ productivity. Upgrade to BUY. MALAYSIA Results Fraser & Neave Holdin...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: November Conviction Calls: We add a mix of defensives and turnaround stocks − COSCO Shipping, CR Mixc, Great Wall Motor, Innovent, Link REIT and NetEase − to our BUY list. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Outperformance Despite Negative Returns: Our picks: TLKM, BBNI, SMGR, NCKL, CTRA, MYOR, AKRA and CMRY. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Focusing On Domestic Winners: Our Alpha Picks underperformed the FBMKLCI in Oct 23. Nov 23 picks: BUY BURSA, EKOVEST, GENM, ...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: October Conviction Calls: We expect further downside pressure, so we add SELLs on Henlius and Xpeng to the list, on top of BUYs on Anta, Lenovo, PICC P&C and SHKP. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Potential Bull Market in 4Q23: Our picks: BBNI, SMGR, NCKL, MAPI, CTRA, MYOR, AKRA and CMRY. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: A Handful Of Events To Capitalise On: Our Alpha Picks modestly outperformed the FBMKLCI in Sep 23. Oct 23 picks: BUY BURSA, HAPL, HUME, MAHB a...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: September Conviction Calls: We focus on stocks with pricing power or sustainable margins against a weakening macro backdrop. Add Giordano, KE Holdings and Trip.com. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Underperformance In Aug 23: Our picks: MYOR, BSDE, CTRA, HMSP, BBNI, SMGR and MAPI. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Warming Up For Better Months Ahead: Our Alpha Picks outperformed the FBMKLCI in Aug 23. Sep 23 picks: BUY BURSA, HAPL, HUME, MAHB, Mr DIY, My EG Servi...
The acquisition of ESSO by BCP should deliver scale advantage and long-term earnings growth for both companies. However, we expect ESSO to see short-term profitability uplift from higher run rate and lower opex. We revise up our 2024 earnings projection by 14%. Upgrade to BUY. Target price: Bt15.00.
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: September Conviction Calls: We focus on stocks with pricing power or sustainable margins against a weakening macro backdrop. Add Giordano, KE Holdings and Trip.com. Small-Mid Cap Biweekly: Consumer discretionary 1H23 earnings growth outpaced the HSMI and HSSI. Highlights are Samsonite International and Huitongda Network. Sector Commodities: Weekly: Hopeful on demand recovery as we enter the peak consumption season. Results Venus Medtech (Hangzhou) Inc (2500 HK...
We are still positive on ESSO’s earnings outlook in 3Q23. We think GRM will remain strong until 4Q23. We believe the acquisition from BCP is likely to be finalised soon with a purchase price of around Bt9.6-9.8/share, which implies both limited upside and downside from ESSO’s current price. Maintain HOLD. Target price: Bt9.80.
GREATER CHINA Results AAC Technologies (2018 HK/HOLD/ HK$15.56/ Target: HK$14.50): 1H23: Margins deteriorated further; better visibility of recovery in 2H23. AIA Group (1299 HK/BUY/ HK$69.95/Target: HK$95.00): 1H23: VONB in line; margin slumps a concern. Aier Eye Hospital Group (300015 CH/BUY/Rmb18.02/Target: Rmb26.00): 1H23: Satisfactory results; strong demand to further boost revenue growth. China Construction Bank (939 HK/BUY/HK$4.11/Target: HK$6.30): 1H23: Earnings continue to thrive despite...
ESSO reported a net loss of Bt1.6b in 2Q23 from a gain of Bt824m in 1Q23, due to an inventory loss of Bt1.6b. Excluding inventory loss, ESSO’s core profit was Bt382m, down 93% yoy and 86% qoq, in line with expectations. ESSO’s 1H23 core profit came in at Bt3.1b, down 50% yoy and accounting for 72% of our 2023F forecasts. We believe the share price has limited upside in the short term, based on indicative purchase price from BCP. Downgrade to HOLD. Target price: Bt9.80.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Esso Thailand (ESSO TB/HOLD/Bt9.30/Target: Bt9.80) 2Q23: Weak results. GFPT (GFPT TB/BUY/Bt11.90/Target: Bt15.00) 2Q23: Better-than-expected results. Earnings to still be better than peers’. PTT (PTT TB/BUY/Bt35.75/Target: Bt41.00) 2Q23: Net profit within expectations. WHA Corporation (WHA TB/HOLD/Bt4.88/Target: Bt5.20) 2Q23: Impressive results beating our forecasts. Update Asset World Corporation (AWC TB/HOLD/Bt4.36/Target: Bt5.30) 2Q23: Earnings missed due to high...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: August Conviction Calls: We expect further supportive policies to be rolled out and are adding potential beneficiaries like Baidu, COPH, CR Beer, CR Land, Ping An Insurance and Sands China to our BUY list. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Again, An Outperformance In Jul 23: Our picks: MYOR, BSDE, CTRA, HMSP, BBNI, SMGR, MAPI; short ADRO. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Warming Up For Better Months Ahead: Our Alpha Picks underperformed the FBMKLCI in Jul 23. Au...
ESSO reported a net loss of Bt1.6b in 4Q22, narrowing from a loss of Bt3.1b in 3Q22, due to an inventory loss of Bt3.7b. ESSO’s 4Q22 core profit came in at Bt7.6b, from a core loss of Bt1.9b in 2021. We believe the share price has limited downside based on the indicative purchase price from BCP. The potential strong earnings recovery in 1Q23 is another key driver for the share price in the short term. Upgrade to BUY. Target price: Bt12.50.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results BEC World (BEC TB/HOLD/Bt9.30/Target: Bt10.00) 4Q22: Earnings above estimates but still soft. Chularat Hospital (CHG TB/SELL/Bt3.78/Target: Bt3.60) 4Q22: Results miss. COM7 (COM7 TB/BUY/Bt31.00/Target: Bt42.00) 4Q22 earnings in line; strong growth momentum in 1Q23. Energy Absolute (EA TB/BUY/Bt77.00/Target: Bt100.00) 4Q22: Results beat our expectations. Esso Thailand (ESSO TB/BUY/Bt8.85/Target: Bt12.50) 4Q22: Weak results due to inventory loss again. Indorama Ventur...
ESSO’s 3Q22 net loss was above expectation with a loss of Bt3.1b vs our estimate of only Bt1.1b. The earnings disappointment was due to a huge inventory loss of Bt4.5b (vs estimate of Bt1.9b). Although we expect earnings recovery in 4Q22, we believe share price upside is limited. Maintain HOLD. Target price: Bt12.50.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Bumrungrad Hospital (BH TB/HOLD/Bt233.00/Target: Bt225.00) 3Q22: A second consecutive quarter of all-time high earnings. Central Pattana (CPN TB/BUY/Bt68.75/Target: Bt80.00) 3Q22: Continues to recover despite the low season Esso Thailand (ESSO TB/HOLD/Bt13.60/Target: Bt12.50) 3Q22: Results below our estimates due to a huge inventory loss. GFPT (GFPT TB/HOLD/Bt13.90/Target: Bt15.80) 3Q22: Stronger-than-expected 3Q22 earnings but the outlook is still unattractive. Indo...
Although investors are aware of possibly weak results in 3Q22, we believe ESSO’s earnings should turn positive in 4Q22. The company is also a key beneficiary of refinery plant shutdowns in Thailand in 4Q22. However, we think share price upside is still limited. We recommend switching to SPRC. Maintain HOLD. Target price: Bt12.50.
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