In our view, the most important events in Q3 were the presentation of long-term clinical data from the Swedish trial and very strong 2-year follow-up data from the large European (80 patients) multi-centre trial. Q3 was largely in line with our expectations, and we note that the number of procedures is increasing despite a negative Covid-19 impact. We reiterate our fair value of SEK1.9–6.5.
The company hosted a CMD in mid-September where management presented its long-term views. There were also several interesting presentations from KOLs in the industry, discussing the benefits for patients and doctors of the Episealer implant system. We believe Episurf Medical is moving rapidly in the right direction and that the clinical documentation is improving (and very strong). Based on the longer-term outlook, we have adjusted our fair value to SEK1.9–6.5 (1.3–3.9).
Episurf Medical (EPISB SS) - Strong long-term data The company today announced strong long-term follow-up data from the initial Episealer trial done in Sweden. We previously saw 24-month data; the patients have now been followed for 75 months and the data still looks excellent. This is important for Episurf Medical, as many doctors as well as payers request long-term follow-up for the implant system to be included in treatment algorithms and reimbursement systems. We reiterate our fair value of...
Episurf Medical (EPISB SS) - Strong long-term data The company today announced strong long-term follow-up data from the initial Episealer trial done in Sweden. We previously saw 24-month data; the patients have now been followed for 75 months and the data still looks excellent. This is important for Episurf Medical, as many doctors as well as payers request long-term follow-up for the implant system to be included in treatment algorithms and reimbursement systems. We reiterate our fair value of...
As we expected, Covid-19 had a clear impact on the number of implant procedures in Q2. As these are elective procedures, they can easily be postponed (as seen in Q2). Despite this, we believe the company had a strong quarter with a good cost control. Over the coming quarters, we believe sales should gradually return. Our new fair value is SEK1.3–3.9 (1.4–4.1).
On 24 April Episurf Medical reported solid Q1 earnings, especially bearing in mind that EpiSealer procedures are typically elective and hence among the areas where healthcare organisations globally have lowered activity levels in the wake of Covid-19. This effect should be even more pronounced in Q2. Overall, we believe the company is moving in the right direction and its stable financial situation is a big benefit in the volatile times ahead due to the Covid-19 pandemic. We calculate a fair val...
Yesterday, the company announced that the rights issue announced earlier this year has been completed. In our view, the company is clearly moving in the right direction with the financing being the last piece of the puzzle. In early 2020, it has released strong clinical data supporting the implant system, and now the financial situation is secured until 2022. In total, the company has raised cSEK140m before costs.
Q4 earnings were broadly in line with our forecast. More importantly, however, management announced plans for a cSEK140m capital increase that it believes will secure its financial position for the coming years, with a large proportion of the capital raised earmarked for the US IDE trial. We calculate a fair value range for Episurf of SEK1.6–4.3 (previously SEK1.8–4.7).
It took longer than expected for EpiSurf to get the new Talus implant system approved for marketing in Europe but it is now finally in place. We expect this to become a sizeable market over time, given the lack of alternatives and the number of patients suffering from defects in the talus. The company has not offered an over-abundance of details on the outlook for this market segment and we expect it to provide more information over the coming months.
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