Elmera Group (Sell, TP: NOK24.00) - Fixed prices, variable risks

We remain lukewarm ahead of the Q1 report, expecting below-consensus results on lower volumes due to the warm weather. We continue to question the sustainability of the business model given the still-high contribution from variable contracts and potential negative impact from the introduction of a fixed-price regime in Norway. We reiterate our SELL and NOK24 target price, despite slight negative estimate revisions.

Renewable Weekly – 20 February 2025

This week, we summarise this week's most important newsflow on the companies under our coverage.

Cry wolf

Elmera Group (Sell, TP: NOK24.00) - Fixed-price uncertainty

The Q4 results were slightly better than we expected. However, we reiterate our SELL and NOK24 target price despite slight estimate raises, reflecting the increased uncertainty around the proposed fixed-price scheme in Norway, which could significantly hurt the profitability of the Consumer segment.

Elmera Group (Sell, TP: NOK24.00) - Q4 above, uncertainty remains

We consider this a slightly positive report for Elmera Group with figures slightly above expectations, driven by the Consumer segment. We believe a slight positive share price reaction is warranted, but expect limited read impact from the report on consensus 2025 estimates given the uncertainty created by the proposed electricity fixed-price scheme in Norway.

Adj. EBIT in line, outlook kept, higher divi

Clean EBIT 40% better on hihger sales /GM. "Consumer" strong (price hikes / margins). Underlying CF strong

Fixed el. price proposal - high uncertainty

Proposal of fixed el. price and cuts to VAT on grid rent. Markup will likely be kept, question is how much.

Renewable Weekly – 27 January 2024

This week, we summarise this week's most important newsflow on the companies under our coverage.

Elmera Group (Sell, TP: NOK24.00) - Melting profits

We are lukewarm ahead of Elmera’s Q4 results, expecting EBIT to be down 9% YOY, primarily on lower volumes due to the warm weather. We reiterate our SELL and NOK24 target price, as we continue to find the valuation rich relative to peers and its growth prospects.

Renewable Weekly – 28 Nov 2024

On aggregate, the R&C stocks underperformed (equal weight) the MSCI Nordic by ~4% throughout the reporting season (15 October to today).

Renewable Weekly – 11 November 2024

Elmera Group (Sell, TP: NOK24.00) - Earnings beat, but valuation still...

Given the better-than-expected Q3 results, low power prices limiting switching activity, and high margins on variable contracts for the Consumer business, Elmera looks set to meet its 2025 guidance. We have raised our target price to NOK24 (21) on positive estimate revisions, but with the valuation still looking rich, reiterate our SELL.

More lightning than buzz

Elmera Group (Sell, TP: NOK21.00) - Q3 above, guidance maintained

We consider this a positive report for Elmera Group, including figures above consensus, higher-than-expected deliveries, and a maintained 2024-2025 guidance. We expect c5% positive revisions to consensus 2024e EBIT on the report and believe a positive share price reaction is warranted.

Massive beat on EBIT and CF

Clean EBIT 40% better on hihger sales /GM. "Consumer" strong (price hikes / margins). Underlying CF strong

Renewable Weekly – 1 November 2024

This week, we summarise this week's most important newsflow on the companies under our coverage.

Renewable Weekly – 25 October 2024

This week, we summarise this week's most important newsflow on the companies under our coverage.

Renewable Weekly – 17 October 2024

This week, we summarise our Q3 previews for the sector.

Renewable Weekly – 8 Oct 2024

This week, we highlight the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate updated LCOE estimates.

Q3 set to beat