reports
- Morten Jensen
Oil Services - Discontinuing coverage
We have discontinued coverage of Akastor, Aker, Atwood Oceanics, DOF, Eidesvik Offshore, Farstad Shipping, Kvaerner, Saipem, Sevan Marine, Siem Offshore, Solstad Farstad, and Songa Offshore. Our last published recommendations, target prices and estimates should no longer be relied up.
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
Patience needed
We have been impressed by the operational and technical achievements of Polarcus. However, as consensus is for a 17% YOY sales increase in 2019, we believe that in the coming months revisions will hinder the shares: thus we maintain HOLD, while we have cut our target price to NOK2.2 (2.4) on downward estimate revisions.
1Q6 PROSAFE S.E.
AKAST AKASTOR ASA
PGS PGS ASA
SPM SAIPEM S.P.A.
DOF DOF ASA
SOC SUBSEA 7 S.A.
DDASA DOLPHIN DRILLING ASA
SOFF SOLSTAD OFFSHORE ASA
SDRL SEADRILL LTD
BWO BW OFFSHORE
PLCS POLARCUS LIMITED
SONGA OFFSHORE
OCY OCEAN YIELD ASA
ARCHERO ARCHER
MGN MAGNORA ASA
AKER AKER ASA CLASS A
EIOF EIDESVIK
SIOFF SIEM OFFSHORE INC
TGS TGS-NOPEC GEOPHYSICAL COMPANY ASA
SPU SPECTRUM ASA
E65F VALARIS PLC CLASS A
KVAER KVAERNER ASA
ODL ODFJELL DRILLING
ATW.. ATWOOD OCEANICS INC.
DO DIAMOND OFFSHORE DRILLING INC.
NLC NOBLE CORPORATION PLC
RIGN TRANSOCEAN LTD.
TEC TECHNIPFMC PLC
SHLF SHELF DRILLING
CGG CGG
RDC ROWAN COMPANIES PLC
NODL NORTHERN DRILLING
ORIG OCEAN RIG UDW
BDRILL BORR DRILLING
AWDR AWILCO DRILLING
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
Set for a rush of UDW awards
Kicked off today by Tullow confirming a 3-well contract plus options with Stena for Ghana work, we expect ~15 UDW jobs to be awarded in the next few months. While the majority of these jobs are short-term (1–3 wells), there are some with durations of ~1 year as well as a long-term job for Chevron in Australia. Improved contracting activity is generally considered positive by the equity market and we believe this may support upbeat market commentary from contractors on their Q2 earnings calls. ...
DDASA DOLPHIN DRILLING ASA
SDRL SEADRILL LTD
SONGA OFFSHORE
E65F VALARIS PLC CLASS A
ODL ODFJELL DRILLING
DO DIAMOND OFFSHORE DRILLING INC.
NLC NOBLE CORPORATION PLC
RIGN TRANSOCEAN LTD.
RDC ROWAN COMPANIES PLC
NODL NORTHERN DRILLING
AWDR AWILCO DRILLING
ORIG OCEAN RIG UDW
BDRILL BORR DRILLING
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
Petrobras UDW tender
In addition to the Libra tender for two UDW rigs last week, updates suggest Petrobras has now launched its expected tender for general UDW rigs in the pre-salt area. Like historical Petrobras requirements, we believe it is for ‘one or more’ rigs. We consider it positive to see Petrobras tendering for UDW rigs again. Start-up is said to be September 2019 and confirms our view Petrobras will release most – if not all – UDW rigs coming off contract between now and late 2019 and focus on rep...
DDASA DOLPHIN DRILLING ASA
SDRL SEADRILL LTD
SONGA OFFSHORE
E65F VALARIS PLC CLASS A
ODL ODFJELL DRILLING
DO DIAMOND OFFSHORE DRILLING INC.
NLC NOBLE CORPORATION PLC
RIGN TRANSOCEAN LTD.
SHLF SHELF DRILLING
RDC ROWAN COMPANIES PLC
NODL NORTHERN DRILLING
AWDR AWILCO DRILLING
A2JAU0 BORR DRILLING
ORIG OCEAN RIG UDW
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
Libra tender launched
Updates suggest Petrobras has launched its tender for two UDW rigs for development drilling at the Libra field starting in December 2019. As there currently are two UDW rigs working at the field with exploration and appraisal drilling until October 2019 and June 2018, we consider this tender to be a replacement, rather than incremental demand. The start date on the new tender is somewhat later than we had expected, leaving a small gap with no rigs and a longer period with only one rig at the Lib...
DDASA DOLPHIN DRILLING ASA
SDRL SEADRILL LTD
SONGA OFFSHORE
E65F VALARIS PLC CLASS A
ORIG OCEAN RIG UDW INC
ODL ODFJELL DRILLING
DO DIAMOND OFFSHORE DRILLING INC.
NLC NOBLE CORPORATION PLC
RIGN TRANSOCEAN LTD.
SHLF SHELF DRILLING
RDC ROWAN COMPANIES PLC
NODL NORTHERN DRILLING
AWDR AWILCO DRILLING
A2JAU0 BORR DRILLING
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
Asset valuation still stretched
While we do not expect dayrates to worsen from today's depressive level, we do not see any immediate recovery triggers (except decent market conditions for certain niche assets). At the current equity valuations, the positive effect from fundamentals ceasing to deteriorate could be offset by an unrealistically high consensus on the timing and magnitude of a dayrate recovery. Patience is needed for an earnings recovery, and we expect continued negative estimate revisions. We maintain our muted, b...
DDASA DOLPHIN DRILLING ASA
SDRL SEADRILL LTD
SONGA OFFSHORE
E65F VALARIS PLC CLASS A
ORIG OCEAN RIG UDW INC
ODL ODFJELL DRILLING
DO DIAMOND OFFSHORE DRILLING INC.
NLC NOBLE CORPORATION PLC
RIGN TRANSOCEAN LTD.
SHLF SHELF DRILLING
RDC ROWAN COMPANIES PLC
NODL NORTHERN DRILLING
AWDR AWILCO DRILLING
A2JAU0 BORR DRILLING
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
2018 offshore spending still set to fall
Following Q4 reports and multiple capital markets updates, we maintain our forecast that 2018 offshore E&P spending will decline ~5%. At current oil prices, we see meaningful positive cash-flow generation from offshore-focused E&Ps. Yet capital allocation trends towards onshore and strong capital discipline with focus on shareholder returns (including elimination of scrip dividends) remain. Hence, we do not see a near-term significant offshore spending increase and maintain our selective view on...
1Q6 PROSAFE S.E.
AKAST AKASTOR ASA
PGS PGS ASA
SPM SAIPEM S.P.A.
DOF DOF ASA
SOC SUBSEA 7 S.A.
DDASA DOLPHIN DRILLING ASA
SOFF SOLSTAD OFFSHORE ASA
SDRL SEADRILL LTD
BWO BW OFFSHORE
PLCS POLARCUS LIMITED
SONGA OFFSHORE
OCY OCEAN YIELD ASA
ARCHERO ARCHER
MGN MAGNORA ASA
AKER AKER ASA CLASS A
EIOF EIDESVIK
SIOFF SIEM OFFSHORE INC
TGS TGS-NOPEC GEOPHYSICAL COMPANY ASA
SPU SPECTRUM ASA
E65F VALARIS PLC CLASS A
KVAER KVAERNER ASA
ORIG OCEAN RIG UDW INC
ODL ODFJELL DRILLING
ATW.. ATWOOD OCEANICS INC.
DO DIAMOND OFFSHORE DRILLING INC.
NLC NOBLE CORPORATION PLC
RIGN TRANSOCEAN LTD.
TEC TECHNIPFMC PLC
CGG. CGG ADR
SHLF SHELF DRILLING
RDC ROWAN COMPANIES PLC
NODL NORTHERN DRILLING
AWDR AWILCO DRILLING
A2JAU0 BORR DRILLING
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
Harsh focus shifting to 2020+
With the exception of the three frame agreement rigs for Statoil, the Nova development from Wintershall and a potential incremental rig for AkerBP, we believe oil companies have secured Norway rig capacity for all long-term programmes starting in 2018–2020. Also, short-term opportunities with start-up during the next 12 months are in our view mostly spoken for. Outside Norway most high-profile jobs needing a large harsh semi have also made rig selections with the exception of Rosebank in the U...
DDASA DOLPHIN DRILLING ASA
SDRL SEADRILL LTD
SONGA OFFSHORE
E65F VALARIS PLC CLASS A
ORIG OCEAN RIG UDW INC
ODL ODFJELL DRILLING
DO DIAMOND OFFSHORE DRILLING INC.
NLC NOBLE CORPORATION PLC
RIGN TRANSOCEAN LTD.
SHLF SHELF DRILLING
RDC ROWAN COMPANIES PLC
NODL NORTHERN DRILLING
AWDR AWILCO DRILLING
A2JAU0 BORR DRILLING
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
Four Sete rigs to be continued
Petrobras said in a filing today that it has reached a conditional agreement with Sete Brasil to continue with four UDW rigs and that the remaining 24 rigs will be cancelled. Sete has been under restructuring since 2015 and we have expected that the restructuring will result in 0–5 rigs being continued. Continuation of no rigs would obviously have been the best for the global supply/demand situation, but we consider it neutral to the UDW market that four rigs now are being continued. As we exp...
DDASA DOLPHIN DRILLING ASA
SDRL SEADRILL LTD
SONGA OFFSHORE
E65F VALARIS PLC CLASS A
ORIG OCEAN RIG UDW INC
ODL ODFJELL DRILLING
DO DIAMOND OFFSHORE DRILLING INC.
NLC NOBLE CORPORATION PLC
RIGN TRANSOCEAN LTD.
SHLF SHELF DRILLING
RDC ROWAN COMPANIES PLC
NODL NORTHERN DRILLING
AWDR AWILCO DRILLING
A2JAU0 BORR DRILLING
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
Not what established players need
We view Awilco Drilling’s harsh semi order as a proper move from a company perspective, but on the downside for the industry. First, it helps to renew and grow its fleet. The yard price is an historical low and the yard contract terms have a lot of optionality. Second, For the equity story, it makes Awilco Drilling a more interesting M&A candidate, in our view. Despite an improved harsh environment market, we still see plentiful supply, supported by seven uncontracted harsh semi newbuilds sitt...
DDASA DOLPHIN DRILLING ASA
SDRL SEADRILL LTD
SONGA OFFSHORE
E65F VALARIS PLC CLASS A
ORIG OCEAN RIG UDW INC
ODL ODFJELL DRILLING
DO DIAMOND OFFSHORE DRILLING INC.
NLC NOBLE CORPORATION PLC
RIGN TRANSOCEAN LTD.
SHLF SHELF DRILLING
RDC ROWAN COMPANIES PLC
NODL NORTHERN DRILLING
AWDR AWILCO DRILLING
A2JAU0 BORR DRILLING
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
Contracts and liquidity runway
In our view the jackup market is showing several healthy signs, with high tendering activity and several multi-rig tenders finally coming to a conclusion. This should help rig count and move utilisation higher. On the flip side, we believe dayrates on upcoming awards for such multi-rig tenders (Saudi Aramco and ADNOC) for multi-year contracts may undershoot consensus. Thus we believe it will take longer than consensus thinks for jack-up dayrates to start to move higher. That said, we see positiv...
DDASA DOLPHIN DRILLING ASA
SDRL SEADRILL LTD
SONGA OFFSHORE
E65F VALARIS PLC CLASS A
ORIG OCEAN RIG UDW INC
ODL ODFJELL DRILLING
DO DIAMOND OFFSHORE DRILLING INC.
NLC NOBLE CORPORATION PLC
RIGN TRANSOCEAN LTD.
SHLF SHELF DRILLING
RDC ROWAN COMPANIES PLC
NODL NORTHERN DRILLING
AWDR AWILCO DRILLING
A2JAU0 BORR DRILLING
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
Petrobras tender for moored rigs
As the first of several expected tenders, Petrobras has now launched a tender for two moored semis for two years each, with likely start-up early-2019. As highlighted in a recent note, we consider it positive that Petrobras is looking to contract rigs again, for the first time in 3.5 years. On the flip side, we expect Petrobras to release rigs coming off contract between now and late-2019, and that its new tenders will need fewer rigs, resulting in a net reduction in rig count. Still, due to a s...
DDASA DOLPHIN DRILLING ASA
SDRL SEADRILL LTD
SONGA OFFSHORE
E65F VALARIS PLC CLASS A
ORIG OCEAN RIG UDW INC
ODL ODFJELL DRILLING
DO DIAMOND OFFSHORE DRILLING INC.
NLC NOBLE CORPORATION PLC
RIGN TRANSOCEAN LTD.
SHLF SHELF DRILLING
RDC ROWAN COMPANIES PLC
NODL NORTHERN DRILLING
AWDR AWILCO DRILLING
A2JAU0 BORR DRILLING
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
Another stranded harsh semi sold
The widely expected sale of the harsh-environment semi Stena Mid-max from Samsung was confirmed by the yard today at USD505m to a “European buyerâ€. Media reports from Q3 2017 suggested the Aker group had reserved the rig at a price of USD450m and that AkerBP was likely to contract the rig with Odfjell Drilling as a potential manager. Among others we believe the difference in price relates to buyer-requested upgrades and modifications to improve its drilling efficiency. On top of the USD505m ...
DDASA DOLPHIN DRILLING ASA
SDRL SEADRILL LTD
SONGA OFFSHORE
E65F VALARIS PLC CLASS A
ORIG OCEAN RIG UDW INC
ODL ODFJELL DRILLING
DO DIAMOND OFFSHORE DRILLING INC.
NLC NOBLE CORPORATION PLC
RIGN TRANSOCEAN LTD.
SHLF SHELF DRILLING
RDC ROWAN COMPANIES PLC
NODL NORTHERN DRILLING
AWDR AWILCO DRILLING
A2JAU0 BORR DRILLING
Songa Offshore SE (SONG) - Oil & Gas - Deals and Alliances Profile
Summary Songa Offshore SE (Songa Offshore) is an oil and gas company that offers midwater drilling services. The company constructs, owns and operates drilling rigs used in exploration and production drilling. It provides drilling units such as songa dee, songa delta, songa trym, songa equinox, songa endurance, songa encourage, songa enabler, among others. Songa Offshore operates a fleet of semi submersible rigs across Angola, China, Australia, Russia, Malaysia and Norway. The company operates ...
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
Ford Equity International Rating and Forecast Report
Ford Equity International Research Reports cover 60 countries with over 30,000 stocks traded on international exchanges. A proprietary quantitative system compares each company to its peers on proven measures of business value, growth characteristics, and investor behavior. Ford's three recommendation ratings buy, hold and sell, represent each stock’s return potential relative to its own country market.. The rating reports which are generated each week, include the fundamental details behind...
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