Longyuan generated 3,864,485MWh of wind power (+22.4% yoy), delivering a significant upside surprise. The strong performance reflects improved wind resources, seasonally firm summer demand, and a low base from Aug 24. Wind utilisation hours rose 12 hours yoy in Aug 25. Subsidy repayment acceleration in Aug 25 has strengthened cash flow visibility and driven a positive re-rating across renewable power utilities. We maintain HOLD with a higher target price of HK$7.00.
Greater China Economics | Trade China’s export momentum softened in August as front-loaded US demand has faded, exposing the vulnerability of shipments to the US market. While the trade diversion supported flows to ASEAN and the EU, overall growth moderated. Imports also weakened amid subdued agricultural demand, despite firmer commodity-related inflows. Pro...
Top Stories Economics | Trade China’s export momentum softened in August as front-loaded US demand has faded, exposing the vulnerability of shipments to the US market. While the trade diversion supported flows to ASEAN and the EU, overall growth moderated. Imports also weakened amid subdued agricultural demand, despite firmer commodity-related inflows. Product-level data was mixed, with motor vehicles and hi-tech exports showing strength. Looking ahead, the trade outlook remains cautious, with ...
Longyuan reported 1H25 earnings of Rmb3.52bn (–13.6% yoy), within expectations. Total generation fell to 39.7TWh (–1.1% yoy), with wind/solar power rising to 33.5TWh/6.1TWh (+6.1%/+71.4% yoy). Wind utilisation hours dropped to 1,102 (–68 yoy) on weaker resources and curtailment. Average tariffs declined to Rmb399/MWh (–Rmb23) from more market sales and parity projects. 2Q25 installed capacity hit 43.2GW (+2.0GW) ahead of connection deadlines. Maintain HOLD. Target: HK$6.80.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Baidu Inc (9888 HK/HOLD/HK$87.25/Target: HK$88.00) Baidu’s 2Q25 earnings missed our expectations. Revenue dropped 4% yoy to Rmb32.7b, in line with consensus estimates. Gross margin dropped 8ppt yoy to 43.9%, below consensus expectations. Non-GAAP operating profit was Rmb4.4b, plunging 41% yoy, while non-GAAP operating profit margin came in at 14%. Non-GAAP net profit slumped 35% yoy to Rmb4.8b, beating consensus forecasts. Maintain HOLD with an unchanged target price of ...
Longyuan reported 1Q25 earnings of Rmb1,977.1m (-21.8% yoy). Wind power generation rose to 17,776GWh (+4.4%), yet still trailing the pace of capacity expansion. Weaker wind resources and a higher curtailment rate of 4.4% continued to weigh on wind power utilisation hours, which declined to 585 hours (-55 hours). We remain cautious regarding the potential impacts of the post-530 policy shift and persistent uptrend in curtailment rates. Maintain HOLD. Target price: HK$6.60.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results China Construction Bank (939 HK/HOLD/HK$6.79/Target: HK$7.00) CCB delivered disappointing 1Q25 results as net profit declined 4.0%, dragged by NIM compression and tepid fee income. Furthermore, revenue growth was no longer supported by trading gains, as yields rebounded during 1Q25. Asset quality was a silver lining as CCB highlighted the sequential improvement in the retail and property developer segments. Management also noted that tariff risk is manageable in terms of...
GREATER CHINA Results China Construction Bank (939 HK/HOLD/HK$6.79/Target: HK$7.00): 1Q25: Earnings miss due to weaker NIM and fee income; tariff risk is limited. Downgrade to HOLD. China Longyuan Power (916 HK/HOLD/HK$6.10/Target: HK$6.60): 1Q25: In line; cautious outlook amid rising curtailment rates and upcoming policy shift. China Merchants Bank (3968 HK/BUY/HK$44.50/Target: HK$49.00): 1Q25: Earnings down 2.1% yoy on weaker trading gains. Estun Automation (002747 CH/SELL/Rmb19.17/Target: Rmb...
Longyuan reported 2024 earnings of Rmb6,378.7m (+2.0% yoy), within expectations. 2024 power generation was 75,546GWh (-0.9% yoy), dragged by wind power generation of 60,550GWh (-1.3% yoy). A low wind speed (-2m/s yoy) and higher curtailment rate at 3.86% (+0.16ppt yoy) have continued to weigh on wind power utilisation hours at 2,190 hours (-156 hours). Longyuan is on track to achieve its installed capacity target of 50GW by end-25. Maintain HOLD. Target price: HK$6.70.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics PMI Manufacturing PMI strengthened further to 50.5 (+0.3pt mom) while non-manufacturing PMI improved to 50.8 (+0.4pt mom) as construction activity improved to 53.4 (+0.7pt mom), alongside a moderate recovery in services at 50.3 (+0.3pt mom). Small-sized enterprises saw a notable improvement to 49.6 (+3.3pt mom) despite being in the contractionary zone, pointing to a broadening of the recovery. Sector Aviation The three airlines’ 2024 results were in line but at the h...
GREATER CHINA Sector Aviation: Airlines: Expecting a turnaround in 2025 on better supply-demand balance. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Results China Feihe (6186 HK/BUY/HK$5.87/Target: HK$6.80): 2024: Results miss; targets accelerated revenue growth but slight gross margin improvement in 2025. China Longyuan Power (916 HK/HOLD/HK$6.23/Target: HK$6.70): 2024: In line; poor wind resources weigh on power generation despite robust new installation. China Overseas Land & Investment (688 HK/BUY/HK$13.90/Target...
Longyuan reported 9M24 earnings of Rmb5,667.9m (-11.4% yoy), within expectations. 9M24 power generation was 56,847GWh (+2.4% yoy), contributed by stronger 3Q24 wind power generation at +6.2% yoy (2Q24: -10.8% yoy). Low wind speed ytd was 5.6m/s (- 0.1m/s yoy) and declining average on-grid tariff continued to drag on the wind power segment’s revenue. Wind power utilisation hours fell to 1,607 hours (-108 hours). Maintain HOLD. Target price: HK$6.50.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics PMI October’s manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1% (+0.3ppt mom), with improvements across all composite indices. However, new export orders and inventory of finished goods continued to contract, with increases in purchase prices. The non-manufacturing PMI rose to 50.2% (+0.2ppt mom), showing broad-based improvements across all indices but a slight dip in construction PMI. Activity for small-sized firms contracted, likely impacted by fewer new manufacturing export orders....
GREATER CHINA Economics PMI: Broad-based improvement in PMI. Results Budweiser APAC (1876 HK/BUY/HK$8.11/Target: HK$14.60): 3Q24: Premiumisation slows down in China; in-home channel to be a focus. BYD Electronic (285 HK/BUY/HK$33.50/Target: HK$40.90): 3Q24: Solid set of results; 4Q24/2025 growth may accelerate further. Maintain BUY. China Longyuan Power (916 HK/HOLD/HK$6.91/Target: HK$6.50): 3Q24: In line; 3Q24 wind power generation up 6.2% yoy. COSCO SHIPPING Holdings (1919 HK/HOLD/HK$11.54/Tar...
Longyuan reported 1H24 earnings of Rmb3,985.9 (-20.8% yoy), below expectations. 1H24 power generation was flattish at 40,081,845MWh (+0.8% yoy), with wind power generation falling 4.6% yoy. Low wind speed (-0.25m/s yoy to 5.85m/s in 1H24) saw wind power utilisation hours being reduced to 1,170 hours (-101 hours). The average on-grid tariff declined to Rmb423/MWh (-Rmb34/MWh). The installed capacity expansion target for 2024 remains at 7,500MW. Downgrade to HOLD. Target price: HK$6.10.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Baosteel (600019 CH/BUY/Rmb5.85/Target: Rmb7.90) Baosteel reported 1H24 earnings of Rmb4,554.6m (-0.2% yoy), representing 34% of our full-year estimate and below expectations. Steel products’ gross margin rose to 3.7% (+0.7ppt yoy). Differentiated products’ sales volume increased to Rmb15.09m (+17.2% yoy), remaining as the key earnings contributor during the industry downcycle. Steel products’ export volume grew to 3.05m (+2% yoy), on track to achieve the annual target...
GREATER CHINA Results BYD Electronic (285 HK/BUY/HK$27.65/Target: HK$42.50) 1H24: Results missed on margins. Expect peak season to bolster profitability in 2H24. China Feihe (6186 HK/BUY/HK$4.04/Target: HK$5.22) 1H24: Steady profit growth; accelerated revenue expansion in 2H24. China Longyuan Power (916 HK/HOLD/HK$6.16/Target: HK$6.10) 1H24: Below expectations; power generation dragged by low wind speed. ...
China Longyuan Power reported 1Q24 earnings of Rmb2,481.7m (+2.6% yoy), below expectations. Wind power generation was up by merely 1.4% yoy although installed capacity was 6.1% higher yoy. Lower wind power utilisation hours at 640 hours (-14 hours yoy) were the key reason, due to a 0.1m/s lower wind speed and higher curtailment rate of 4.22%. The ratio of market power sales rose to 42.1% (1Q23: 40.8%). Average wind power tariff was Rmb0.4437/kWh. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$6.40.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Automobile We raise 2024 forecasts on China’s PV sales growth and PEV sales growth from +8%/+21% to +10%/+24% on bigger-than-expected subsidies for the cash-for-clunker program and zero downpayment auto loans. Meanwhile, we lift the target prices of BYD, Geely, GWM, GAC and Yadea to HK$160.00/HK$13.00/HK$13.50/HK$3.30 /HK$20.00 respectively. Upgrade GWM from HOLD to BUY, and upgrade GAC from SELL to HOLD. Top BUY: CATL, Geely and Yadea. Top SELL: BYD, Li Auto and XPeng. ...
GREATER CHINA Results China Longyuan Power (916 HK/BUY/HK$5.72/Target: HK$6.40): 1Q24: Below expectations; low wind speed weighed on performance. COSCO SHIPPING Ports (1199 HK/BUY/HK$4.62/Target: HK$6.75): 1Q24: Results in line; steady performance in a seasonally slow quarter with headwinds. Dian Diagnostics (300244 CH/BUY/Rmb14.13/Target: Rmb18.50): 1Q24: ICL revenue growth satisfactory; esoteric testing and self-developed product segments remain 2024’s key growth drivers. Foshan Haitian Flavou...
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