Longyuan reported 1Q25 earnings of Rmb1,977.1m (-21.8% yoy). Wind power generation rose to 17,776GWh (+4.4%), yet still trailing the pace of capacity expansion. Weaker wind resources and a higher curtailment rate of 4.4% continued to weigh on wind power utilisation hours, which declined to 585 hours (-55 hours). We remain cautious regarding the potential impacts of the post-530 policy shift and persistent uptrend in curtailment rates. Maintain HOLD. Target price: HK$6.60.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results China Construction Bank (939 HK/HOLD/HK$6.79/Target: HK$7.00) CCB delivered disappointing 1Q25 results as net profit declined 4.0%, dragged by NIM compression and tepid fee income. Furthermore, revenue growth was no longer supported by trading gains, as yields rebounded during 1Q25. Asset quality was a silver lining as CCB highlighted the sequential improvement in the retail and property developer segments. Management also noted that tariff risk is manageable in terms of...
GREATER CHINA Results China Construction Bank (939 HK/HOLD/HK$6.79/Target: HK$7.00): 1Q25: Earnings miss due to weaker NIM and fee income; tariff risk is limited. Downgrade to HOLD. China Longyuan Power (916 HK/HOLD/HK$6.10/Target: HK$6.60): 1Q25: In line; cautious outlook amid rising curtailment rates and upcoming policy shift. China Merchants Bank (3968 HK/BUY/HK$44.50/Target: HK$49.00): 1Q25: Earnings down 2.1% yoy on weaker trading gains. Estun Automation (002747 CH/SELL/Rmb19.17/Target: Rmb...
Longyuan reported 2024 earnings of Rmb6,378.7m (+2.0% yoy), within expectations. 2024 power generation was 75,546GWh (-0.9% yoy), dragged by wind power generation of 60,550GWh (-1.3% yoy). A low wind speed (-2m/s yoy) and higher curtailment rate at 3.86% (+0.16ppt yoy) have continued to weigh on wind power utilisation hours at 2,190 hours (-156 hours). Longyuan is on track to achieve its installed capacity target of 50GW by end-25. Maintain HOLD. Target price: HK$6.70.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics PMI Manufacturing PMI strengthened further to 50.5 (+0.3pt mom) while non-manufacturing PMI improved to 50.8 (+0.4pt mom) as construction activity improved to 53.4 (+0.7pt mom), alongside a moderate recovery in services at 50.3 (+0.3pt mom). Small-sized enterprises saw a notable improvement to 49.6 (+3.3pt mom) despite being in the contractionary zone, pointing to a broadening of the recovery. Sector Aviation The three airlines’ 2024 results were in line but at the h...
GREATER CHINA Sector Aviation: Airlines: Expecting a turnaround in 2025 on better supply-demand balance. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Results China Feihe (6186 HK/BUY/HK$5.87/Target: HK$6.80): 2024: Results miss; targets accelerated revenue growth but slight gross margin improvement in 2025. China Longyuan Power (916 HK/HOLD/HK$6.23/Target: HK$6.70): 2024: In line; poor wind resources weigh on power generation despite robust new installation. China Overseas Land & Investment (688 HK/BUY/HK$13.90/Target...
Longyuan reported 9M24 earnings of Rmb5,667.9m (-11.4% yoy), within expectations. 9M24 power generation was 56,847GWh (+2.4% yoy), contributed by stronger 3Q24 wind power generation at +6.2% yoy (2Q24: -10.8% yoy). Low wind speed ytd was 5.6m/s (- 0.1m/s yoy) and declining average on-grid tariff continued to drag on the wind power segment’s revenue. Wind power utilisation hours fell to 1,607 hours (-108 hours). Maintain HOLD. Target price: HK$6.50.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics PMI October’s manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1% (+0.3ppt mom), with improvements across all composite indices. However, new export orders and inventory of finished goods continued to contract, with increases in purchase prices. The non-manufacturing PMI rose to 50.2% (+0.2ppt mom), showing broad-based improvements across all indices but a slight dip in construction PMI. Activity for small-sized firms contracted, likely impacted by fewer new manufacturing export orders....
GREATER CHINA Economics PMI: Broad-based improvement in PMI. Results Budweiser APAC (1876 HK/BUY/HK$8.11/Target: HK$14.60): 3Q24: Premiumisation slows down in China; in-home channel to be a focus. BYD Electronic (285 HK/BUY/HK$33.50/Target: HK$40.90): 3Q24: Solid set of results; 4Q24/2025 growth may accelerate further. Maintain BUY. China Longyuan Power (916 HK/HOLD/HK$6.91/Target: HK$6.50): 3Q24: In line; 3Q24 wind power generation up 6.2% yoy. COSCO SHIPPING Holdings (1919 HK/HOLD/HK$11.54/Tar...
Longyuan reported 1H24 earnings of Rmb3,985.9 (-20.8% yoy), below expectations. 1H24 power generation was flattish at 40,081,845MWh (+0.8% yoy), with wind power generation falling 4.6% yoy. Low wind speed (-0.25m/s yoy to 5.85m/s in 1H24) saw wind power utilisation hours being reduced to 1,170 hours (-101 hours). The average on-grid tariff declined to Rmb423/MWh (-Rmb34/MWh). The installed capacity expansion target for 2024 remains at 7,500MW. Downgrade to HOLD. Target price: HK$6.10.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Baosteel (600019 CH/BUY/Rmb5.85/Target: Rmb7.90) Baosteel reported 1H24 earnings of Rmb4,554.6m (-0.2% yoy), representing 34% of our full-year estimate and below expectations. Steel products’ gross margin rose to 3.7% (+0.7ppt yoy). Differentiated products’ sales volume increased to Rmb15.09m (+17.2% yoy), remaining as the key earnings contributor during the industry downcycle. Steel products’ export volume grew to 3.05m (+2% yoy), on track to achieve the annual target...
GREATER CHINA Results BYD Electronic (285 HK/BUY/HK$27.65/Target: HK$42.50) 1H24: Results missed on margins. Expect peak season to bolster profitability in 2H24. China Feihe (6186 HK/BUY/HK$4.04/Target: HK$5.22) 1H24: Steady profit growth; accelerated revenue expansion in 2H24. China Longyuan Power (916 HK/HOLD/HK$6.16/Target: HK$6.10) 1H24: Below expectations; power generation dragged by low wind speed. ...
China Longyuan Power reported 1Q24 earnings of Rmb2,481.7m (+2.6% yoy), below expectations. Wind power generation was up by merely 1.4% yoy although installed capacity was 6.1% higher yoy. Lower wind power utilisation hours at 640 hours (-14 hours yoy) were the key reason, due to a 0.1m/s lower wind speed and higher curtailment rate of 4.22%. The ratio of market power sales rose to 42.1% (1Q23: 40.8%). Average wind power tariff was Rmb0.4437/kWh. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$6.40.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Automobile We raise 2024 forecasts on China’s PV sales growth and PEV sales growth from +8%/+21% to +10%/+24% on bigger-than-expected subsidies for the cash-for-clunker program and zero downpayment auto loans. Meanwhile, we lift the target prices of BYD, Geely, GWM, GAC and Yadea to HK$160.00/HK$13.00/HK$13.50/HK$3.30 /HK$20.00 respectively. Upgrade GWM from HOLD to BUY, and upgrade GAC from SELL to HOLD. Top BUY: CATL, Geely and Yadea. Top SELL: BYD, Li Auto and XPeng. ...
GREATER CHINA Results China Longyuan Power (916 HK/BUY/HK$5.72/Target: HK$6.40): 1Q24: Below expectations; low wind speed weighed on performance. COSCO SHIPPING Ports (1199 HK/BUY/HK$4.62/Target: HK$6.75): 1Q24: Results in line; steady performance in a seasonally slow quarter with headwinds. Dian Diagnostics (300244 CH/BUY/Rmb14.13/Target: Rmb18.50): 1Q24: ICL revenue growth satisfactory; esoteric testing and self-developed product segments remain 2024’s key growth drivers. Foshan Haitian Flavou...
Longyuan reported 2023 earnings of Rmb6,200.4m (+26.5% yoy), below expectations. Revenue declined 5.6% yoy to Rmb37,638.4m, dragged by a 4.9%/23.6% decline in wind/photovoltaic power tariffs and slow capacity expansion. Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded by 4.5ppt to 62.3%, supported by an improvement in wind power utilisation to 2,346 hours (+50 hours). Renewable subsidies collected in 2023 slowed to Rmb6.3b (- 70% yoy). Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$6.50.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics PMI First expansion in six months. Sector Aviation Airlines: Expecting a turnaround in profitability in 2024 with moderate international travel recovery. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Macau Gaming Mar 24 GGR up 6% mom; May 24 Golden Week a potential catalyst. Results China Feihe (6186 HK/BUY/HK$3.68/Target: HK$4.43) 2023: Results in line; healthy channel inventory and improved operating efficiency to drive growth. Upgrade to BUY. China Longyuan Power (916 HK/BUY/HK$5.4...
GREATER CHINA Sector Aviation Airlines: Expecting a turnaround in profitability in 2024 with moderate international travel recovery. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Results China Longyuan Power (916 HK/BUY/HK$5.48/Target: HK$6.50) 2023: Below expectations; slower-than-expected pace of capacity expansion. China Overseas Land & Investment (688 HK/BUY/HK$11.26/Target: HK$19.42) 2023: Results beat expectations; watching for stabilisation of profitability in 2024. China Resources Gas (1193 HK/BUY/HK$24.9...
GREATER CHINA Sector Aviation: Airlines: 3Q23 results broadly in line; bottom line turned around in the seasonal peak quarter. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Results China Longyuan Power (916 HK/BUY/HK$6.79/Target: HK$7.90): 3Q23: In line; 3Q23 wind power utilisation hours down 34 hours yoy. Goldwind Science & Technology (2208 HK/HOLD/HK$3.76/Target: HK$4.00): 3Q23: Below expectations; 3Q23 WTG sales growth slows to +6.0% yoy. Great Wall Motor (2333 HK/BUY/HK$10.82/Target: HK$13.50): 3Q23: Earnings tripl...
GREATER CHINA Results China Longyuan Power (916 HK/BUY/HK$10.00/Target: HK$18.90): 3Q22: In line; improved wind power utilisation hours. China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp (601888 CH/BUY/Rmb167.45/Target: Rmb223.00): 3Q22: Sharp declines on low traffic flow and high base; positive on future expansion. Estun Automation (002747 CH/HOLD/Rmb19.99/Target: Rmb21.50): 3Q22: Takeaways from post-results meeting. Guangzhou Automobile Group (2238 HK/BUY/HK$4.94/Target: HK$7.50): 3Q22: Earnings miss estimat...
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Report is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.