EME Equity Market – April 2024 Market performance – green across all geographies, with Turkey outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index was up 5.3% mom in EUR terms and 4.2% mom in USD in April; while the Turkish ISE30 saw the strongest performance, adding 11.6% mom; followed by the Hungarian BUX (+5.0% mom); the Czech PX (+2.8% mom); the Greek ASE (+1.8% mom), the Polish WIG20 (+1.2% mom) and the Romanian BET (+0.1% mom) (all in EUR terms).
HEADLINES: • Santander Bank Polska: 1Q24 results – 19%+ headline ROE affected only slightly by FX mortgage saga costs • Bank Pekao: 1Q24 results in line with market's expectations NEUTRAL • PCF Group: 4Q23 headlines hit heavily by write-offs, but a more limited EBITDA loss than we had expected NEUTRAL • Erste Bank: 1Q24 results NEUTRAL • OMV: 1Q24 results – chemicals stronger than expected NEUTRAL • Borouge: 1Q24 results – better than expected POSITIVE • OMV Petrom: 1Q24 results NEUTRAL • Garan...
Another record year; on track for c10% EBIT growth in 2024 – Jumbo delivered 20% EBIT growth in FY23 thanks to 14% higher sales, resilient gross margins (-15bps yoy, albeit >3pps higher than 2019 levels) and opex savings (opex just +6% yoy). Coupled with net financial income given the debt-free balance sheet, Jumbo grew net profits by a whopping 22%, eclipsing the +20% embedded in our estimates a year ago. Mgt proposed another generous €1 DPS following the €0.6 paid in March, adding up to c6% yi...
Another record year; on track for c10% EBIT growth in 2024 – Jumbo delivered 20% EBIT growth in FY23 thanks to 14% higher sales, resilient gross margins (-15bps yoy, albeit >3pps higher than 2019 levels) and opex savings (opex just +6% yoy). Coupled with net financial income given the debt-free balance sheet, Jumbo grew net profits by a whopping 22%, eclipsing the +20% embedded in our estimates a year ago. Mgt proposed another generous €1 DPS following the €0.6 paid in March, adding up to c6% yi...
• LPP: the glass is half full (stays BUY) • Eurocash: 4Q23 beat on costs, profit warning for 1Q24E • 11 bit studios: 4Q23 adjusted EBITDA beats expectations on a solid top line • Polish banks: 2024 contributions to the BFG • MOL: oil production starts on a new platform at ACG field • Ford Otosan: completes the Eurobond book-building process • Kalekim: 2023 IAS 29 results - strong operating results • Lamda: 4Q23 results - a significant step-up in Ellinikon revenues, revaluation gain on existing m...
HEADLINES: • Lamda: 4Q23 results - significant step-up in Ellinikon revenues, revaluation gain on existing malls • Electrica: proposed changes to the regulatory framework • Bank Pekao: AGM chooses new Supervisory Board members, approves PLN 19.2 DPS • 11 bit studios: release date of INDIKA moved to 2 May • Nuclearelectrica: shareholders abstain from voting on the items from yesterday’s GMS • EMEA airlines: 1Q24 traffic - a good start to the year • Budimex: 1Q24E flat yoy - profitability improvem...
HEADLINES: • EME Macro/Strategy: reassessing the inflation and rates outlook to 2025E eop • Benefit Systems: strong momentum continues • Dom Development: volume growth, margins stronger for longer (stays BUY) • Kazakhstan macro: NBK keeps policy rate on hold, at 14.75% • Ford Otosan: to issue Eurobond • Bank Pekao: 1Q24E preview (results due on 30 April) • Santander Bank Polska: 1Q24E preview (results due on 30 April) • ING BSK: 1Q24E preview (results due on 7 May) • Short News (HUG)
Moody's Ratings (Moody's) has today affirmed Bank Polska Kasa Opieki S.A.'s (Bank Pekao) A2/P-1 long- and short-term deposit ratings and maintained the stable outlook on the long-term deposit ratings. Further, Moody's Ratings affirmed the bank's baa2 Baseline Credit Assessment (BCA) and Adjusted BCA...
EME Equity Market – March 2024 Market performance – mixed performances in March, with the Romanian BET outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 0.3% mom in EUR terms and 0.4% mom in USD in March. The Romanian BET reported the strongest performance, adding 7.1% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Czech PX and the Polish WIG20 (+4.1% and 1.0% mom, in EUR terms, respectively). Greece saw a relatively muted performance (-0.2% mom in EUR terms), while Hungary (-1.1% mom in EUR terms) and Tür...
HEADLINES: • Polish Banks: not done yet (PKO BP, Bank Pekao, Santander BP, mBank, ING BSK, Bank Millennium, Alior Bank, Bank Handlowy) • Kazatomprom: digging the margins (stays BUY) • Jahez: mixed 2023 financial results NEUTRAL • BRD-GSG: publishes 2024 budget NEUTRAL • Migros: BoD to propose DPS of TRY 6.904 NEUTRAL • Short News (M, BRISA)
We keep our constructive view on the Polish banks. We admit that the upside we see is far less than the share price performance last year (WIG Bank index up 119% in the LTM). However, we cannot ignore the single-digit P/Es (our sector median 2024E P/E at 8.3x), in combination with the falling cost of equity, which is, in part, the result of improved sentiment in the country and improving growth expectations. All this is topped up with generous dividend payments this year. The solid earnings outl...
EME Equity Market – February 2024 Market performance – a positive February, with the Polish WIG20 outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 4.2% mom in EUR terms and 3.7% mom in USD in February. The Polish WIG20 saw the strongest performance, adding 6.4% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Greek ASE (+4.2% mom), the Turkish ISE30 (+4.0% mom) and the Romanian BET (+2.6% mom) (all in EUR terms). There was a relatively muted performance in Hungary (+0.6% mom in EUR terms) and a decline in the Cze...
HEADLINES: • CCC: the boys are back in town (stays BUY) • Bank Pekao: solid 2023 profits, generous PLN 19.2/share dividend, market waiting for AGM date POSITIVE • Orlen: 4Q23 results – CCS EBITDA in line NEUTRAL • Solutions by STC: key takeaways from the 4Q23 conference call NEUTRAL • Alior Bank: potential to pay out up to 50% of its 2023 net profit as a dividend NEUTRAL • PKO BP: PFSA guides for maximum dividend payout • Polish banks: mBank, ING BSK and Santander BP receive dividend letters fro...
HEADLINES: • Komercni Banka: 2023 delivery brings positive surprise on two-year dividend outlook, yield at almost 11% • mBank: 2023 marked by active portfolio at risk coverage of 100% NEUTRAL • BRD-GSG: 4Q23 results – strong results, with a 28% bottom-line beat vs. our expectations POSITIVE • Bank Pekao: hefty yield possible this year POSITIVE • Auto Partner: January sales growth recovers materially, to 22% yoy POSITIVE • Poland macro: MPC on hold • Public Power Corporation: EC proceeds with...
HEADLINES: • ADNOC Distribution: 4Q23 results – net income better than expected POSITIVE • Shoper: 2024E management guidance implies EBITDA range broadly in line with our forecast NEUTRAL • Bank Pekao: Pekao Bank Hipoteczny on FX mortgage saga costs due in 4Q23E NEUTRAL • Sphera Group: 9% yoy EBITDA expansion expected in 4Q23E (due on 29 February) • Short News (PKN, WPS, FP)
HEADLINES: • Al Arabia Outdoor Advertising: exclusivity in a growing market (stays BUY) • Santander Bank Polska: publishes neutral 4Q23 results, supporting continuation of high ROEs, in line with expectations NEUTRAL • Raiffeisen Bank International: posts preliminary 4Q23 results, guides for 2023 EUR 1.25 DPS and shares initial 2024E guidance NEUTRAL • Romgaz: preliminary figures in line with estimates, conservative 2024E budget NEUTRAL • ADNOC Distribution: full-year 2023 operational results...
2023: Reclaiming investor spotlight – Greek equities had another year of stellar performance, with the ASE index popping >40%, eclipsing the Stoxx 600 by >25ppts. Strong fundamentals (mid-teens EBITDA growth for non-financials, >50% NII growth for banks) were coupled with falling risk premia thanks to crystallized domestic political stability and expectations for Greece’s return to investment grade (IG), further propelled by the generic risk-on rally in Q4 and low positioning. Financials (+66%) ...
2023: Reclaiming investor spotlight – Greek equities had another year of stellar performance, with the ASE index popping >40%, eclipsing the Stoxx 600 by >25ppts. Strong fundamentals (mid-teens EBITDA growth for non-financials, >50% NII growth for banks) were coupled with falling risk premia thanks to crystallized domestic political stability and expectations for Greece’s return to investment grade (IG), further propelled by the generic risk-on rally in Q4 and low positioning. Financials (+66%) ...
EME Equity Market – November 2023 Market performance – Greeks in the lead, in a month with only green across the region. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 5.6% mom in EUR terms and 8.7% mom in USD in November. The Greek ASE Index was the top performer in our region (+6.9% mom), followed by the Polish WIG20 (+5.5% mom) and the Hungarian BUX (+4.0% mom). The Czech PX Index saw the most muted performance, advancing 2.8% mom.
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