HEADLINES: • Titan Cement: cementing its leadership (BUY - transfer of coverage) • 11 bit studios: 4Q24 adjusted EBITDA above our expectations, headlines hit by substantial write-offs POSITIVE • PGE: full 4Q24 results in line with the preliminaries NEUTRAL • Tauron: full 4Q24 results in line with the preliminaries NEUTRAL • VIGO Photonics: 1Q25 sales up 39% yoy, to PLN 22.1m POSITIVE • OPAP: Greek gaming market up by a strong 15% yoy in 2M25 POSITIVE • Kazatomprom: signs supply agreement with CE...
HEADLINES: • OTP Bank: agrees to limit retail fees NEUTRAL • Benefit Systems: EGM approves capital increase, via issuance of up to 280k new shares NEUTRAL • Santander Bank Polska: may face change of strategic investor NEUTRAL • Inter Cars: March sales growth accelerates to 13% yoy NEUTRAL • Huuuge Games: preliminary 1Q25 bookings at USD 62m, almost flat qoq NEUTRAL
HEADLINES: • EME Macro/Strategy: tariff impact – a preliminary assessment • VIGO Photonics: signs framework agreement with PCO on infrared arrays; minimum 2026-31 contract value of PLN 191.9m POSITIVE • Benefit Systems: confirms 4Q24 preliminary EBITDA of PLN 261m NEUTRAL • Benefit Systems: Medicover gets conditional approval to acquire CityFit gyms NEUTRAL • OMV: 1Q25 trading statement NEUTRAL • OMV Petrom: 1Q25 trading statement NEUTRAL • CEZ: ANO wants to nationalise CEZ • Richter: proposes D...
HEADLINES: • Mavi: a mispriced story with solid fundamentals (BUY - reinitiation of coverage) • Turkish banks: weather vs. climate (reinitiating on Akbank, Garanti, Isbank and Yapi Kredi with HOLDs) • Warsaw Stock Exchange: just move on up (stays BUY) • Benefit Systems: March sports cards addition surprises positively, mostly in Poland POSITIVE • MOL: announces dividend proposal of HUF 275/share NEUTRAL • EU macro: cohesion funds can be deployed for defence, housing and energy investments • Dino...
EME Equity Market – March 2025 Türkiye hammered, once again. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced 0.5% in EUR terms and 4.5% mom in USD terms in March. The Czech PX Index was the best performer (+7.0% mom in EUR terms), followed by the Greek ASE (+4.8% mom), Polish WIG (+3.7% mom) and Hungarian BUX(+1.3% mom) indices (all in EUR terms). There was a muted performance from the Romanian BET Index (-0.1% mom in EUR terms). The Turkish ISE30 finished in the red again, declining 9.5% mom in EUR terms.
HEADLINES: • Polish banks: pricing and believing (PKO BP, Bank Pekao, Santander BP, mBank, ING BSK, Bank Millennium, Alior Bank, Bank Handlowy) • Asseco Poland: 4Q24 review – net profit up 9% yoy, 9% above the consensus POSITIVE • InPost: 4Q24 in line with expectations; FY25E EBITDA growth guidance in the mid-20%s, but a slow start to the year POSITIVE • Kety: solid full 4Q24 results, with EBITDA 12% above preliminaries POSITIVE • Halyk Bank: 4Q24 review and 2025E guidance highlights • Titan Cem...
The Polish banks have rallied 35% ytd, but the median total return for the LTM has arrived at 18%+ for the Polish banks under our coverage. We feel that the market is currently in a similar place to exactly a year ago. The banks have performed well since the end of last year, but valuations remain attractive, with our 2025-26E median P/Es of 9.0-8.2x, at discounts to the long-term valuation levels and with solid single-digit dividend yields in 1H25E. Our upgraded forecasts imply a 10% median EPS...
HEADLINES: • Benefit Systems: pumping iron (stays BUY) • Jeronimo Martins: small beat in 4Q24, Biedronka margin erosion slows down; tough market environment continues in 2025 POSITIVE • OPAP: the beat goes on, in 4Q24 POSITIVE • Tauron: preliminary 4Q24 EBITDA 45% above our estimate, on strong Generation and Distribution, and lower loss in Supply POSITIVE • Türkiye macro: assessment of recent political events • Allegro vs. InPost: our take on the companies' two calls • cyber_Folks / Shoper: key ...
We reiterate our BUY on Benefit Systems (BFT). Our new 12-month price target (PT) of PLN 4,300 (from PLN 3,400) offers a strong 47% potential upside. We maintain our view of sound growth prospects for Poland, with a 3Y adjusted EBIT CAGR of 11%. The four established foreign markets could add c.100k cards annually in the coming three years, on our estimates, vs. 110-130k for Poland. We forecast a 3Y adjusted EBIT CAGR of 29% for the four markets, although 2025E may remain under pressure from the ...
HEADLINES: • CEZ: 4Q24 results a strong beat, FY25E guidance also positive POSITIVE • PKO BP: posts solid 4Q24, and sets solid base for 2025E delivery NEUTRAL • Sarantis: FY24 slightly above guidance; minor guidance upgrade for 2025E POSITIVE • Allegro: 4Q24 EBITDA beat, solid FY25E guidance, PLN 1.4bn buyback POSITIVE • Inter Cars: preliminary 4Q24 net profit rises 41% yoy, but a slight miss vs. expectations NEUTRAL • Shoper: 4Q24 preliminary adjusted EBITDA up 32% yoy, sound 12% beat vs. our f...
HEADLINES: • BIM: strong operating results in 4Q24 POSITIVE • Bank Handlowy: 4Q24 results do not bring much new to the table NEUTRAL • Sok Marketler Ticaret: recovery in operating results masked by bottom-line loss in 4Q24 NEUTRAL • GEVORKYAN: 4Q24 results – lower than expected, due to one-off expenses NEUTRAL • Benefit Systems: key takeaways from the call on the MAC Group acquisition in Türkiye POSITIVE • Grupa Pracuj: PLN 28.6m revaluation of Beamery to harm 2024 results NEGATIVE • Budimex: an...
HEADLINES: • Benefit Systems: conditional USD 420m agreement to buy leading MAC Group fitness chain in Türkiye POSITIVE • Inter Cars: February sales growth decelerates to 3% yoy NEGATIVE • CTP: issues EUR 1bn of green bonds in two tranches, 6Y and 10Y POSITIVE • Ford Otosan: signs agreement with Iveco to develop heavy truck cabin models NEUTRAL • Polish utilities: comments on electricity price freeze for 4Q25 NEUTRAL • Baltic Classifieds Group: acquires Lithuanian real estate valuation platform ...
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