reports
- Adrian Kowollik
- Jonathan Lamb
WOOD Flash – MOL: 4Q results and 2025E guidance
MOL reported its fourth quarter results this morning (21 February), which were below expectations, and announced its guidance for 2025E. The EBITDA was 24% lower than the previous quarter, at HUF 226bn, and 16% and 18% below our and the consensus expectations, respectively. The EBITDA was affected negatively by a large CCS effect of HUF 35.5bn, related mostly to carbon emissions permit costs. This accounted for almost all of the underperformance in downstream. The circular economy segment was hi...
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: WIZZ LN; GSPARK HB; MOL HB; NLBR SV; MYTIL GA; AKCNS TI; T...
HEADLINES: • Wizz Air: knocked out, beat down, black and blue (stays BUY) • Graphisoft Park: 4Q24 results, and another strong year • MOL: 4Q24 results below expectations, posts a net loss NEGATIVE • NLB Group: bottom-line miss in 4Q24, but equity story remains intact NEUTRAL • Metlen Energy & Metals: 2024 EBITDA +7%, to EUR 1.1bn, as expected NEUTRAL • Akcansa: proposed dividend almost in line with our estimate NEUTRAL • Piraeus Financial Holdings: 4Q24E preview (due on 24 February) NEUTRAL • Gr...
- Markus Remis
- Stephane Houri
PEO BANK POLSKA KASA OPIEKI SA
TKA TELEKOM AUSTRIA AG
EBS ERSTE GROUP BANK AG
CEZ CEZ AS
UNIQA INSURANCE GROUP AG
EVN EVN AG
MMK MAYR-MELNHOF KARTON AG
ZVTG ZAVAROVALNICA TRIGLAV D.D.
CDR CD PROJEKT S.A.
OMV OMV AG
PKO PKO BANK POLSKI S.A.
KOMB KOMERCNI BANKA A.S.
VOE VOESTALPINE AG
WIZZ WIZZ AIR HOLDINGS PLC
PZU POWSZECHNY ZAKLAD UBEZPIECZEN SPOLKA AKCYJNA
VER VERBUND AG CLASS A
SPL SANTANDER BANK POLSKA SA
POS PORR AG
MIL BANK MILLENNIUM SA
LNZ LENZING AG
MTELEKOM MAGYAR TELEKOM TELECOMMUNICATIONS
ROS ROSENBAUER INTERNATIONAL AG
TPS ORANGE POLSKA S.A.
CAI CA IMMOBILIEN ANLAGEN AG
PAL PALFINGER AG
WIE WIENERBERGER AG
ATS AT & S AUSTRIA TECHNOLOGIE & SYSTEMTECHNIK AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
SEM SEMPERIT HOLDING AG
PKN POLSKI KONCERN NAFTOWY ORLEN S.A.
LPP LPP S.A.
SBO SCHOELLER-BLECKMANN OILFIELD EQUIPMENT AG
UBS UBM DEVELOPMENT AG
CCC CCC SA
KTCG KAPSCH TRAFFICCOM
OTP OTP BANK NYRT
EUR EUROCASH S.A.
VIG VIENNA INSURANCE GROUP AG WIENER VERSICHERUNG GRUPPE
PYT POLYTEC HOLDING
ZAG ZUMTOBEL GROUP AG
POST OSTERREICHISCHE POST AG
ANDR ANDRITZ AG
STR STRABAG SE
POSR POZAVAROVALNICA SAVA
11B 11 BIT STUDIOS S.A.
ALR ALIOR BANK SA
FLU FLUGHAFEN WIEN AG
FACC FACC AG
BRD BRD-GROUPE SOCIETE GENERALE
TLV BANCA TRANSILVANIA S.A.
SNG SOCIETATEA NATIONALA DE GAZE NATURALE ROMGAZ SA
SNP PETROM S.A.
DIGI DIGI COMMUNICATIONS NV
MOL MOL HUNGARIAN OIL & GAS PLC CLASS A
BG BAWAG GROUP AG
IMP IMPACT DEVELOPER & CONTRACTOR S.A.
DNP DINO POLSKA S.A.
AMAG AMAG AUSTRIA METALL AG
SFG SPHERA FRANCHISE GROUP SA
AGR AGRANA BETEILIGUNGS-AG
EAT AMREST HOLDINGS SE
FQT FREQUENTIS AG WIENER
NLBR NOVA LJUBLJANSKA BANKA DD LJUBLJANA
ALG ALLEGRO.EU SA
INPST INPOST S.A.
ANR ANSWEAR.COM
ONE ONE UNITED PROPERTIES SA
ACAG AUSTRIACARD HOLDINGS AG
AMS AMS-OSRAM AG
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: BFT PW; GE Macro; BIMAS TI; OPAP GA; MYTIL GA; WPL PW; SNP...
HEADLINES: • Benefit Systems: 4Q24 headline profit a touch below forecasts, due to the accelerated recognition of the incentive plan POSITIVE • Georgia macro: insights on a Ukraine deal spillover to Georgia • BIM: Competition Authority imposes administrative fine of TRY 1,296m NEGATIVE • OPAP: Greek gaming market +6% yoy in December and 11% in 2024 POSITIVE • Metlen Energy & Metals: reaches 11-year bauxite supply/alumina offtake agreement with Rio Tinto POSITIVE • Wirtualna Polska: announces ten...
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: MOL HB; TOASO TI; OPL PW; ADNOCDRI UH; TBCG LN; ISCTR TI; ...
HEADLINES: • MOL: there’s gain in the mundane (stays BUY) • Tofas: very weak set of results in 4Q24 NEGATIVE • Orange Polska: 4Q24 – EBITDAaL up 7% yoy, 6% above the consensus; 2025E guidance in line with expectations POSITIVE • ADNOC Drilling: 4Q24 results beat expectations POSITIVE • TBC Bank: 4Q24 results and conference call • Isbank: 4Q24 results and 2025E guidance highlights NEUTRAL • Medicover: takeaways from the 4Q24 earnings call • 11 bit studios: delays release of The Alters NEGATIVE • ...
TPS ORANGE POLSKA S.A.
MYTIL MYTILINEOS S.A.
ENA ENEA S.A.
PGE PGE POLSKA GRUPA ENERGETYCZNA S.A.
TBCB TBC BANK JOINT STOCK CO
11B 11 BIT STUDIOS S.A.
TPE TAURON POLSKA ENERGIA S.A.
TOFAS TOFAS TURK OTOMOBIL FABRIKASI A.S.
MCOV B MEDICOVER AB
NLBR NLB GROUP
BCG BALTIC CLASSIFIEDS GROUP PLC
ADNOCDRILL ADNOC DRILLING CO
7202 ARABIAN INTERNET & COMMUNICATIONS SERVICES CO
- Bram Buring
- CFA
- Jonathan Lamb
MOL: there’s gain in the mundane (stays BUY)
We maintain our BUY rating on MOL, with an updated 12M price target (PT) of HUF 3,600 (from HUF 3,810), offering 22% upside. Upstream projects in Azerbaijan, Hungary and Kazakhstan are boosting short-term production. Oil prices look stable, while we forecast a EUR 38/MWh gas price for 2025E. Most of the arbitrary taxes are now history. Refining margins remain at healthy levels, although petrochemicals margins are still poor. The Rijeka coker should boost margins and volumes later this year, and ...
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: CCC PW; ADNOCDIS UH; RO Macro; PL Macro; MYTIL GA; CAR PW;...
HEADLINES: • CCC: preliminary 4Q24 EBITDA beats our and the market's expectations by c.20% POSITIVE • ADNOC Distribution: 4Q24 results and dividend proposal NEUTRAL • Romania macro: update on the political and fiscal situation • Poland macro: PM Tusk signals shift of policy focus • Metlen Energy & Metals: Canadian Fairfax officially raises stake to 6.4%, as expected NEUTRAL • Inter Cars: January sales growth at 9% yoy NEUTRAL • Budimex: 4Q24E preview – strong gross margin, but headlines down, as...
- Bruno Cavalier
- Christophe-Raphaël Ganet
- Markus Remis
- Stephane Houri
LHA DEUTSCHE LUFTHANSA AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
AAL ANGLO AMERICAN PLC
MC LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON SE
TKA TELEKOM AUSTRIA AG
RI PERNOD RICARD SA
UHR SWATCH GROUP LTD. BEARER
RMS HERMES INTERNATIONAL SCA
EBS ERSTE GROUP BANK AG
CEZ CEZ AS
UNIQA INSURANCE GROUP AG
EVN EVN AG
MMK MAYR-MELNHOF KARTON AG
ZVTG ZAVAROVALNICA TRIGLAV D.D.
CDR CD PROJEKT S.A.
EL ESSILORLUXOTTICA SA
OMV OMV AG
PKO PKO BANK POLSKI S.A.
KOMB KOMERCNI BANKA A.S.
IAG INTERNATIONAL CONSOLIDATED AIRLINES GROUP SA
BRBY BURBERRY GROUP PLC
KER KERING SA
VOE VOESTALPINE AG
WIZZ WIZZ AIR HOLDINGS PLC
PZU POWSZECHNY ZAKLAD UBEZPIECZEN SPOLKA AKCYJNA
BAS BASF SE
VER VERBUND AG CLASS A
EZJ EASYJET PLC
RY4C RYANAIR HOLDINGS PLC
SPL SANTANDER BANK POLSKA SA
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
POS PORR AG
MIL BANK MILLENNIUM SA
LNZ LENZING AG
MTELEKOM MAGYAR TELEKOM TELECOMMUNICATIONS
ROS ROSENBAUER INTERNATIONAL AG
TPS ORANGE POLSKA S.A.
CAI CA IMMOBILIEN ANLAGEN AG
PAL PALFINGER AG
WIE WIENERBERGER AG
ATS AT & S AUSTRIA TECHNOLOGIE & SYSTEMTECHNIK AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
SEM SEMPERIT HOLDING AG
PKN POLSKI KONCERN NAFTOWY ORLEN S.A.
LPP LPP S.A.
SBO SCHOELLER-BLECKMANN OILFIELD EQUIPMENT AG
UBS UBM DEVELOPMENT AG
CCC CCC SA
KTCG KAPSCH TRAFFICCOM
MONC MONCLER SPA
INW INFRASTRUTTURE WIRELESS ITALIANE S.P.A.
TIT TELECOM ITALIA S.P.A.
EUR EUROCASH S.A.
VIG VIENNA INSURANCE GROUP AG WIENER VERSICHERUNG GRUPPE
PYT POLYTEC HOLDING
ZAG ZUMTOBEL GROUP AG
POST OSTERREICHISCHE POST AG
ANDR ANDRITZ AG
STR STRABAG SE
POSR POZAVAROVALNICA SAVA
11B 11 BIT STUDIOS S.A.
BC BRUNELLO CUCINELLI S.P.A.
ALR ALIOR BANK SA
CFR COMPAGNIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT SA
FLU FLUGHAFEN WIEN AG
FACC FACC AG
CLNX CELLNEX TELECOM S.A.
BRD BRD-GROUPE SOCIETE GENERALE
TLV BANCA TRANSILVANIA S.A.
SNG SOCIETATEA NATIONALA DE GAZE NATURALE ROMGAZ SA
SNP PETROM S.A.
DIGI DIGI COMMUNICATIONS NV
MOL MOL HUNGARIAN OIL & GAS PLC CLASS A
BG BAWAG GROUP AG
IMP IMPACT DEVELOPER & CONTRACTOR S.A.
DNP DINO POLSKA S.A.
AMAG AMAG AUSTRIA METALL AG
SFG SPHERA FRANCHISE GROUP SA
AGR AGRANA BETEILIGUNGS-AG
EAT AMREST HOLDINGS SE
FQT FREQUENTIS AG WIENER
NLBR NOVA LJUBLJANSKA BANKA DD LJUBLJANA
ALG ALLEGRO.EU SA
INPST INPOST S.A.
ANR ANSWEAR.COM
ONE ONE UNITED PROPERTIES SA
P911 DR. ING. H.C. F. PORSCHE AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
ACAG AUSTRIACARD HOLDINGS AG
AF AIR FRANCE - KLM
AMS AMS-OSRAM AG
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: TPEIR GA; CZ Macro; CEZ CP; 11B PW; BCG LN; TITC GA; ACP P...
HEADLINES: • Piraeus Financial Holdings: first take on potential Ethniki acquisition NEUTRAL • Czech Republic macro: CNB heading for a temporary pause • CEZ: finalises disposal of Polish coal assets NEUTRAL • 11 bit studios: Polish FSA taking explanatory actions regarding disclosure obligations NEUTRAL • Baltic Classifieds Group: directors sell 2m share (0.4% stake) NEGATIVE • Titan Cement: US subsidiary’s IPO priced at USD 16/share, reportedly • Asseco Poland: 4Q24E preview – flat yoy net profi...
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: KOMB CP; ING PW; MBK PW; BRD RO; PL Macro; BHW PW; EU Oil ...
HEADLINES: • Komercni Banka: surprises on the upside with 2024 delivery; guiding for 100% dividend payout ratio also for 2025E POSITIVE • ING BSK: solid 4Q24, but beat driven by low LLPs, while core revenues miss expectations; guiding for a solid DPS NEUTRAL • mBank: 2024 results; guiding for 2025E to be the last year with a material impact from the FX mortgage saga NEUTRAL • BRD-GSG: strong 4Q24 delivery beats expectations POSITIVE • Poland macro: NBP on hold • Bank Handlowy: makes another impa...
KOMB KOMERCNI BANKA A.S.
BHW BANK HANDLOWY W WARSZAWIE S.A.
BSK ING BANK SLASKI S.A.
PKN POLSKI KONCERN NAFTOWY ORLEN S.A.
CPS CYFROWY POLSAT SA
WPL WIRTUALNA POLSKA HOLDING SA
BRD BRD-GROUPE SOCIETE GENERALE
ADNOCDIST ADNOC DISTRIBUTION PJSC
TEN TEN SQUARE GAMES
HUGE HUUUGE
ELPE HELLENIQ ENERGY
- Marc Lavaud
- Martin Marandon-Carlhian
- Stephane Houri
- Marc Lavaud
- Martin Marandon-Carlhian
- Stephane Houri
- Oleg Galbur
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: RBI AV; OMV AV; SNP RO; BOROUGE UH; ACP PW; WPL PW; CPS PW...
HEADLINES: • Raiffeisen Bank International: 2024 results; 2025E ROE (excluding Russia) guidance of c.10%; equity story still hostage to Russian exposure • OMV: 4Q24 results – CCS EBITDA beats expectations, dividend proposal of EUR 4.75/share POSITIVE • OMV Petrom: 4Q24 results; dividend proposal of RON 0.0444/share NEUTRAL • Borouge: 4Q24 results NEUTRAL • Asseco Poland: considering selling its treasury shares to strategic investor; part of the proceeds to be distributed as dividends POSITIVE • ...
- Research Team
The Rear-View Mirror – EME markets: starting 2025 on the right foot
EME Equity Market – January 2025 The markets entered 2025 on the right foot. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced by 7.7% in EUR terms and 8.4% in USD terms in January. The Polish WIG20 was the best performer (+12.7% mom), followed by the Hungarian BUX and Czech PX indices (+8.9% mom and +6.2% mom, in EUR terms, respectively). There was also a very solid performance from the Greek ASE Index (+5.4% mom in EUR terms), but more muted performances from the Romanian BET and Turkish ISE 30 indices (+1.6%...
EUROB EUROBANK ERGASIAS SERVICES & HOLDINGS SA
PEO BANK POLSKA KASA OPIEKI SA
JMT JERONIMO MARTINS SGPS S.A.
KRU KRUK S.A.
CEZ CEZ AS
KRKG KRKA D.D.
CDR CD PROJEKT S.A.
RBI RAIFFEISEN BANK INTERNATIONAL AG
OMV OMV AG
WIZZ WIZZ AIR HOLDINGS PLC
PZU POWSZECHNY ZAKLAD UBEZPIECZEN SPOLKA AKCYJNA
SPL SANTANDER BANK POLSKA SA
MIL BANK MILLENNIUM SA
BDX BUDIMEX S.A.
MTELEKOM MAGYAR TELEKOM TELECOMMUNICATIONS
PKN POLSKI KONCERN NAFTOWY ORLEN S.A.
MYTIL MYTILINEOS S.A.
ASELS ASELSAN ELEKTRONIK SANAYI VE TICARET A.S. CLASS B
CCC CCC SA
CCOLA COCA-COLA ICECEK A.S.
ENA ENEA S.A.
BFT BENEFIT SYSTEMS S.A. ALLOTMENT
PGE PGE POLSKA GRUPA ENERGETYCZNA S.A.
PGSUS.E PEGASUS HAVA TASIMACILIGI AS
APR AUTO PARTNER SA
LVC LIVECHAT SOFTWARE SA
ALPHA ALPHA BANK AE
CAR INTER CARS S.A.
ARCLK ARCELIK A.S.
THYAO TURK HAVA YOLLARI A.O.
CPS CYFROWY POLSAT SA
MBR MO-BRUK S.A.
11B 11 BIT STUDIOS S.A.
VGO VIGO SYSTEM SA
BELA JUMBO S.A.
SAB1L SIAULIU BANKAS
MONET MONETA MONEY BANK AS
SNP PETROM S.A.
PBK PATRIA BANK SA
DNP DINO POLSKA S.A.
RICHT RICHTER
CGEO GEORGIA CAPITAL
TEN TEN SQUARE GAMES
ALG ALLEGRO.EU SA
INPST INPOST S.A.
PCF PCF GROUP SA
HUGE HUUUGE
WPS W.A.G PAYMENT SOLUTIONS PLC
PCO PEPCO GROUP NV
GPP KAZMUNAYGAS NC JSC
KLKIM GRUPA PRACUJ DA
GIG KALEKIM KIMYEVI MADDELER SANAYI VE TICARET AS
SHO GAMING INNOVATION GROUP
7203 SHOPER SA
ELM CO
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: ARCLK TI; EME Macro/Strategy Weekly; YKBNK TI; PL TMT; PZU...
HEADLINES: • Arcelik: 4Q24 results – a mixed bag NEUTRAL • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (27 January-2 February) • Yapi Kredi: 4Q24 results and 2025E guidance highlights NEUTRAL • Polish TMT: Cyfrowy Polsat sells 10% stake in Asseco Poland for PLN 85/share POSITIVE • PZU: acting CEO Klesyk holds first capital markets conference • Richter: AbbVie’s 2025 Vraylar guidance USD 3.5bn, 8% below the consensus NEGATIVE • OMV: may acquire Nova Chemicals, with ADNOC (Borouge) POSITIVE • Piraeus Fin...
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: MONET CP; MIL PW; KRKG SV; AKBNK TI; WIZZ LN; Poland macro...
HEADLINES: • • MONETA Money Bank: solid 4Q24, solid dividend, material upgrade to MT guidance but all priced in very generously POSITIVE • Millennium: 4Q24 adjusted results in line on pre-provision profit, beat from low LLPs POSITIVE • Krka: preliminary 4Q24 numbers seem weak NEGATIVE • Akbank: 4Q24 results and 2025E guidance highlights NEUTRAL • Wizz Air: 3Q FY25 – a miss, as groundings weigh on costs • Poland macro: positive GDP preliminary estimate, 2.9% for 2024 overall • Hungary macro: econ...
- Jonathan Lamb
WOOD Flash – Global oil and gas: uh-oh, Canada – the oil markets and p...
This weekend (1-2 February), the US government may impose 25% tariffs on all Canadian goods entering the US. It may seem of little consequence from our perspective, but we believe that it could have a significant impact on the global oil and refining markets. Canada produces 5m barrels of oil per day and exports 80% to the US. About 25% of all crude oil processed in the US is from Canada. The trade was worth approximately USD 100bn in 2024. The oil is too heavy for most global refineries and the...
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: Türkiye macro; Uzbekistan macro; PGE PW; BFT PW; PGE PW
HEADLINES: • Türkiye macro: CBT cuts again, signalling potentially deeper reductions • Uzbekistan macro: CBU keeps the policy rate unchanged at 13.5% • PGE: PLN 7.5bn write-down in conventional generation to be recognised in the FY24 results NEUTRAL • Benefit Systems: new bond issue programme of up to PLN 1bn; first tranche considered in 1H25 NEUTRAL • PGE: potentially buying 100% of PAK CCGT and a 50% stake in PGE PAK Energia Jądrowa from ZE PAK NEGATIVE • Short News (CDR)
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