Yara International ASA: 2 directors

Two Directors at Yara International ASA bought/maiden bought 2,337 shares at between 315.000NOK and 316.600NOK. The significance rating of the trade was 54/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the compa...

Essity Aktiebolag (publ): 1 director

A director at Essity Aktiebolag (publ) bought 12,008 shares at 273.140SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 82/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two y...

It does not add up - Down to HOLD (Buy)

Price headwinds stronger than expected. Slashing estimates for 2024-26e. ~7% ATRoCE suggests EV/CE ~1x is fair - HOLD (Buy) TP 325.

Yara (Buy, TP: NOK425.00) - Q1 disappoints the market

While the Q1 results disappointed the market, we consider a ~USD70m–120m EBITDA miss to be within a normal standard deviation and have made only minor estimate changes. Yara’s share price in dollar terms (USD29) is among its lowest since 2010, yet consensus earnings forecasts are at normalised levels. We believe this reflects investor fears it will act irrationally with its capex (NIBD/EBITDA of 2.3x does not give it the muscle to carry out the announced blue ammonia investments). While we hear ...

Storebrand ASA: 1 director

A director at Storebrand ASA maiden bought 10,000 shares at 106.500NOK and the significance rating of the trade was 59/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two year...

EBITDA 15% below cons

Essity (Buy, TP: SEK330.00) - Financial targets up next

The solid Q1 results were aided by the ongoing gross margin recovery, YOY and QOQ. We expect investor focus from here to be on whether Essity can offset rising raw material costs through agility and pricing power. We see new financial targets and capital allocations as the next potential share-price catalysts; we reiterate our BUY and have edged up our target price to SEK330 (325).

Pulp fiction in Q1, reality for Q2

Essity (Buy, TP: SEK325.00) - Good Q2, but no buybacks

We consider this a positive report for Essity, with Q1 adj. EBITA 10% above consensus, mainly driven by a strong gross margin. That said, no financial targets or buybacks following the Vinda transaction were announced, and we expect any conference call comments to be in focus. We expect consensus 2024e adj. EBITA to come up c2% on the results and expect a positive share price reaction.

Earnings growth = higher capital repatriation

Q1 was softer than our bullish expectation, but a clear cons beat. Overall estimates intact and SBB of NOK 1.1bn has started. Earnings growth should warrant higher P/E multiple - BUY.

Storebrand (Buy, TP: NOK125.00) - Signs of gradual improvement

Q1 PTP was up 30% YOY, largely driven by strong AUM growth and increased interest rates. The Insurance segment showed signs of improvement after several rounds of repricing in previous quarters, supporting the 2025 financial targets. Following regulatory approval and a 191% Solvency II ratio, Storebrand launched a NOK1.1bn buyback programme. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to NOK125 (120) following ~4% positive EPS revisions for 2025e.

Better from insurance

Renovation rules now a reality

The Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) was approved on 12 April, requiring the modernisation of existing real estate in the EU, and will soon enter the Official Journal of the EU. Member states will have two years to incorporate the provisions into their national legislation. While Q1 is Nordic construction’s low season due to winter effects, we see some downside risk to Q1e consensus and longer-term to 2024–2026e EBIT on lower development gains. We recommend a stock-picking approa...

Yara (Buy, TP: NOK425.00) - Record-low entry point

Yara’s share price of USD31 is among its lowest in US dollars since 2010, at the same time as its earnings forecast is at normalised levels. We believe this reflects investor concerns that it will act irrationally with its capex. These concerns appear overdone, as in our view Yara has been clear that the industry should cut its carbon emissions long-term, but that it will not go on alone and make unprofitable investments. We find the 2024e P/E of 9x attractive and reiterate our BUY and NOK425 ta...

Storebrand (Buy, TP: NOK120.00) - Strong AUM momentum

Storebrand is set to benefit from strong equity markets in Q1, as we expect AUM to be up ~22% YOY. Together with solid profit sharing from the Swedish Guaranteed business, this should offset a soft insurance result from harsh weather and disability benefits, resulting in Q1 profit before amortisation of NOK924m, up 20% YOY. We forecast a Q1 Solvency II ratio of 195%, supporting continued buybacks in line with the 2023 CMD target of NOK12bn by 2030. We have raised our 2025–2026e EPS by 1–3% and o...

Essity (Buy, TP: SEK325.00) - Capital distribution in focus

We expect Essity’s sequentially higher raw materials costs to be offset by lower energy costs and improved underlying volumes, leaving us largely in line with consensus for Q1. We expect focus to be on capital distributions following the Vinda divestment and Essity’s new financial targets. We reiterate our BUY and SEK325 target price as we continue to find the valuation attractive.