EME Equity Market – November 2025 Czech PX leads in November, Türkiye the only loser. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 1.5% mom in EUR terms and 2.1% mom in USD terms in November. The Czech PX was the top performer, adding 4.7% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Greek ASE and the Hungarian BUX (+4.4% and +3.7% mom, respectively, in EUR terms). The Romanian BET and Polish WIG 20 were also in the green (+1.3% and +1.0% mom in EUR terms). The only loser was the Turkish ISE 30 (-2.0% mom in EUR terms).
In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Profine, Vallourec, Tullow Oil, Polynt, Mehilainen, Altice International, Multiversity, Kantar, Odido, Fedrigoni, Kiloutou, Progroup, Stena AB, Picard, Loewen Play, Biofarma, Grunenthal, Sammontana Italia, Allwyn (formerly Sazka), Pfleiderer, Scan Global Logistics, Forvia (formerly Faurecia)
HEADLINES: • Kaspi.kz: too cheap to ignore (stays BUY) • VIGO Photonics: 3Q25 results review – adjusted EBITDA over 2x above our estimate; order intake up 24% yoy POSITIVE • CCC: final 3Q25 EBITDA spot on prelims NEUTRAL • Rainbow Tours: 3Q25 conference call highlights NEUTRAL • Polish banks: President signs bill on higher CIT for the banks • Murapol: main shareholder sells 20.5% of shares in ABB NEUTRAL • Primoco UAV: promising tactical UAV producer (HOLD - initiation of coverage) • CTP: enters...
Please excuse the lateness of our Daily today, due to technical issues. HEADLINES: • Theon International: impressions from the CMD POSITIVE • OTP Bank: books solid 3Q25, in line with expectations; market waiting for management to reveal plans on surplus capital allocation decisions NEUTRAL • Dino: 2-3% EBITDA miss in 3Q25; lfl and EBITDA dynamics behind Zabka; FY25E guidance maintained NEGATIVE • InPost: 3Q25 slightly above expectations; FY25E EBITDA guidance trimmed, on slower Yodel NEUTRAL • ...
HEADLINES: • Bank Pekao: 3Q25 very solid; 20%+ ROE delivery; key catalyst will be M&A decisions NEUTRAL • Komercni Banka: 3Q25 beat driven purely by positive LLPs balance, still no breakthrough in NII performance NEUTRAL • ING BSK: posts solid 3Q25 results NEUTRAL • mBank: 3Q25 bottom line misses estimates, but purely on higher tax and FX mortgage saga provisions NEUTRAL • Kruk: 3Q25 results a mixed bag – recoveries strong, revenues down, no breakthrough in Spain NEUTRAL • Jeronimo Martins: beat...
In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: European Entertainment Group, SPIE, Pfleiderer, Altice France (SFR), Forvia (formerly Faurecia), Ineos, Sammontana Italia, Ineos Quattro, Biogroup, Cerba, Ithaca Energy
In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Loxam, Atalian, Progroup, Techem, Fedrigoni, Tele Columbus, Odido, EVOCA, Pfleiderer, Victoria, Mehilainen, Biofarma, Cerba, Picard, Scan Global Logistics, Odigeo, Lecta, Stena AB
EME Equity Market – July 2025 EME indices all in the green in July. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced by 6.0% mom in EUR terms and 3.0% in USD terms. The Turkish ISE30 was, once again, the top performer, adding 7.9% mom in EUR terms, followed very closely by the Romanian BET, advancing 7.8% mom in EUR terms. The Greek ASE added 6.8% mom in EUR terms, while the Czech PX added 4.5% mom in EUR terms. The Hungarian BUX and Polish WIG20 added 3.6% and 3.0% mom, respectively, in EUR terms.
HEADLINES: • Rainbow Tours: on the road to riches (BUY - initiation of coverage) • Erste Bank: 2Q25 results beat on positive one-off; solid performance in core result leads to 2025E guidance uplift POSITIVE • Jeronimo Martins: minor beat in 2Q25; FY25E guidance maintained POSITIVE • Eurobank Ergasias Services: 2Q25 highlights – a clean 14% beat vs. our estimate POSITIVE • National Bank of Greece: 2Q25 highlights – in line, with guidance upgrade POSITIVE • Optima Bank SA: bottom-line beat in 2Q25...
HEADLINES: • Bank Millennium: 2Q25 results beat, on lower FX mortgage saga costs; core operating in line, but very solid levels NEUTRAL • Orange Polska: 2Q25 results – EBITDAaL up 4% yoy, 3% above the consensus; 2025E guidance reiterated POSITIVE • Tofas: 2Q25 results – in line operationally; 2025E guidance indicates higher profitability outlook POSITIVE • Athens Exchange Group: strong bottom-line delivery in 2Q25, ahead of expectations POSITIVE • Budimex: preliminary 2Q25 broadly in line with o...
EME Equity Market – June 2025 All EME indices in the green in June, with a rebound in Türkiye. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced by 3.2% mom in EUR terms and 6.9% in USD terms. The Turkish ISE 30 Index was the best performer in our region, recouping the losses from the previous month and adding +6.6% mom in EUR terms. The Hungarian BUX and the Polish WIG indices added 3.1% and 2.8% mom in EUR terms, respectively, followed closely by the Romanian BET and the Greek ASE, with both adding 2.0% mom i...
In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Boparan, Pfleiderer, Alain Afflelou, Novelis, Bombardier, Altice France (SFR), Vedanta Resources, Softbank Group, Tereos, Air Baltic, Benteler International, Tullow Oil
HEADLINES: • Greek banks: take a bow (Alpha downgraded to HOLD, Eurobank stays HOLD, NBG stays BUY and Piraeus upgraded to BUY) • PGE: new strategy assumes PLN 30bn of EBITDA in 2035E and PLN 235bn in capex in 2025-35E NEUTRAL • Bank Pekao/PZU: call for analysts and investors to discuss potential merger • CCC: final 1Q25 results spot on the prelims NEUTRAL • Romania macro: inflation jumps in May • GEK Terna: clinches EUR 1bn of Romanian railway projects POSITIVE • Athens Exchange Group: AGM appr...
The Greek banking index has risen by 53% (62% with dividends), driven by higher P/E multiples and EPS upgrades since our April 2024 reinitiation. In this report, we raise our average normalised EPS forecasts for the big four Greek banks under our coverage by 10% for 2025E and 11% for 2026E, due mainly to stronger fees and lower COR. Our NII estimates for 2025-26E remain broadly unchanged, despite the lower-than-expected interest rates. The banks have also maintained their 2025-27E targets in the...
EME Equity Market – May 2025 EME indices mostly in the green in May, apart from Türkiye. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 3.6% mom in EUR and USD terms. The Greek ASE index (+7.8% mom) was the best performer, followed by the Czech PX (+6.6% mom) and Romanian BET indices (+5.0% mom), the Hungarian BUX (+4.0% mom) and the Polish WIG20 (+2.0% mom; all in EUR terms). The Turkish ISE30 Index was, again, the worst performer, with a more modest decline (-1.4% mom in EUR terms) this time.
In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: PeopleCert, Profine, Pfleiderer, Multiversity, Flos B&B Italia (formerly International Design Group), Omnia Technologies, Biofarma, Crown Holdings, Mooney (formerly SisalPay), Pasubio, Standard Profil, AMS Osram, Novelis
The Europe HY Trade Book for May 2025 includes current trade recommendations drawn from our European HY coverage universe, along with relative-value scatter plots and tables by industry. We also discuss the US tariff situation and key related impacts.
HEADLINES: InPost: international level (stays BUY) Romania macro: presidential election - final results Poland macro: election results 11 bit studios: 1Q25 earnings call – happy with wishlist for The Alters, no plans for pre-orders NEUTRAL Budimex: PLN 1.7bn offer rated the highest in the railway tender POSITIVE Mo-BRUK: management recommends PLN 13.17 DPS from the 2024 earnings NEUTRAL Greek banks: the Greek media reports that the banks could look into reacquiring working mortgages from NPL ser...
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