EME Equity Market – May 2022 Market performance – markets down mostly, as MSCI EM Europe Index declines 3.6%. The MSCI EM Europe Index fell 3.6% mom and 2.0% mom in EUR and USD terms, respectively, in May. The best-performing index was the Russian MOEX, which added 6.3% mom in EUR terms, but declined 3.7% mom in local currency. However, we note that, with the CBR ban on short selling and restrictions on international investors, as well various sanctions, this performance is not fully comparable ...
HEADLINES: • Georgian banks: game on - banks are cheap (Bank of Georgia upgraded to BUY, TBC Bank Group stays BUY) • Bank Handlowy: posts huge turnaround in profitability in 1Q22 POSITIVE • Coca-Cola Icecek: 1Q22 - better than expected results POSITIVE • Banca Transilvania: 1Q22 results solid and on track to meet FY22E budget • Aygaz: 1Q22 results review - 44% NI beat, driven by Entek and Tupras • Motor Oil Hellas: deal with Ellaktor - strong expansion into RES • Public Power Corporation: i...
AT: AMAG - Multi-year order from Ruag Aerostructures (positive) AT: IMMOFINANZ - Radka Doehring appointed as a memeber of the executive board (neutral) AT: Polytec - FY 21 results broadly in line with expectations, no guidance on FY 22 (neutral) CZ: CEZ - CEZ to extend Detmarovice hard coal-fired power plant life byond H1 2023 for security of supply reasons (neutral) PL: PGNiG - Disappointing crude output and lower gas distribution volumes to weigh on Q1 earning (negative) RU: Fertil...
AT: Flughafen Wien - March traffic statistics show sequential improvements (positive) AT: S IMMO - Acquisition of 41.5 k sqm Business Park in Bucharest (neutral) HU: Magyar Telekom - AGM approves HUF 15 bn dividend (neutral) PL: Bank Millennium - Q1 22 pre-earnings call (neutral) PL: Bank Pekao - Q1 22 pre-earnings call (neutral) PL: LPP - Higher inventories maintained allowing for 4 months of sales (neutral) PL: mBank - Informing about Q1 level of FX mortgage related risk provisio...
EME Equity Market – March 2022 Market performance – regional benchmarks mostly in the black, despite the MSCI EM Europe Index losing half of its value. Following its decline in February, the MSCI EM Europe Index lost in March as well, declining by 49.5% in EUR terms and 50.1% in USD terms. Russia’s MOEX Index added 13.2% in EUR terms and 9.4% RUB terms (we note that Russian companies’ GDRs are still suspended for trading). The Turkish ISE30 Index added 8.2% in EUR terms and 13.3% in local curren...
HEADLINES: • Dom Development: homebuilders critical to alleviating shortage (stays BUY) • 11 bit studios: solid 4Q21 results, with good quality beat vs. both our and market's expectations POSITIVE • Kety: final 4Q21 EBITDA 7% above preliminary forecast POSITIVE • Asseco Poland: key takeaways from the 4Q21 earnings call NEUTRAL • Cyfrowy Polsat: key takeaways from the 4Q21 earnings call NEUTRAL • PKO BP/Alior Bank: another switch in the management board NEGATIVE • Transelectrica: proposes to dis...
MARKET COMMENT - RSPP PROPOSES STRIPPING MINORITY RIGHTS, EU AND US OFFICIALS CONSIDER MORE SANCTIONS AND EXPELLING RUSSIA FROM THE G20The Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs proposed to the government to strip nonresident minority shareholders of their shareholder rights on a temporary basis, according to RBC and other sources. Top EU and US officials remarked that more sanctions would be considered Thursday. Equity trading remains suspended in Russia. STORIES> RSPP proposes to st...
КОММЕНТАРИЙ И ПРОГНОЗ - РСПП ПРЕДЛАГАЕТ ВРЕМЕННО ОГРАНИЧИТЬ В ПРАВАХ ИНОСТРАННЫХ МИНОРИТАРИЕВ, ЕС И США РАССМАТРИВАЮТ ВОЗМОЖНОСТЬ ВВЕДЕНИЯ НОВЫХ САНКЦИЙРоссийский союз промышленников и предпринимателей предложил правительству временно ограничить в правах иностранных миноритариев, сообщают РБК и другие источники. ЕС и США рассмотрят в четверг возможность введения новых санкций. Торги акциями на МосБирже по-прежнему не проводятся. НОВОСТИ> Цены на нефть после ралли начали стабилизироваться в предд...
MARKET COMMENT - EQUITIES FROZEN, CAPITAL CONTROLS REMAIN AMID FALLOUT OF "SPECIAL MILITARY OPERATION"EPAM Systems surged 8% and VEON 22%, while Polymetal fell 14% on Friday. The ruble fell 1.6-1.7% both in Moscow and offshore to trade around USD/RUB 104-105. While equities remain frozen, trading of ruble-denominated OFZ sovereign debt will resume today. STORIES> How the balance of payments is likely to evolve amid the crisis> Monetary policy set to be stimulatory for a couple of years> CBR Revi...
КОММЕНТАРИЙ И ПРОГНОЗ - ТОРГОВЛЯ АКЦИЯМИ ПО-ПРЕЖНЕМУ ЗАМОРОЖЕНА, ОГРАНИЧЕНИЯ НА ДВИЖЕНИЕ КАПИТАЛА СОХРАНЯЮТСЯБумаги EPAM Systems выросли в пятницу в цене на 8%, VEON - на 22%, Polymetal подешевел на 14%. Рубль в Москве и на зарубежных площадках ослаб на 1,6-1,7% до 104-105 за доллар. Торговля акциями на МосБирже по-прежнему заморожена, но сегодня должны возобновиться торги ОФЗ. НОВОСТИ> Денежно-кредитная политика станет стимулирующей> Перспективы платежного баланса в условиях кризиса> Итоги засе...
MARKET COMMENT - GOVERNMENT MULLS BUYING MORE STOCK, MSCI EXPELS RUSSIARussian stocks remained frozen in Moscow and were mostly frozen abroad as well yesterday. The government is mulling tapping more of the NWF to buy Russian stocks. MSCI will expel Russia from global benchmarks, and ratings agencies have cut the market to junk status.STORIES> MSCI expels Russia from global and emerging benchmarks> GDP could decline by 10-15% in 2022> Weekly inflation surges to 0.45% over February 19-25> Basic s...
КОММЕНТАРИЙ И ПРОГНОЗПроизводство в базовых отраслях российской экономики выросло в январе на 1% по сравнению с предыдущим месяцем (с учетом корректировки на сезонную составляющую) после роста на 0,6% в декабре. Динамика улучшилась благодаря оптовой торговли и грузообороту транспорта. В период с 19 по 25 февраля потребительские цены в России выросли на 0,45% против 0,24% неделей ранее. Причинами, судя по всему, стали повышение спроса на непродовольственные товары, а также ослабление рубля, котор...
EME Equity Market – February 2022 Market performance – Russia’s equities bled in February due to the country’s invasion of Ukraine. The MSCI EME Europe Index declined by 38.7% in EUR terms and 38.8% in USD terms. Russian stocks, represented by the MOEX Index, lost the most in February, declining by 34.6% in EUR terms and 30.0% in RUB terms. The Hungarian BUX Index lost 21.8% in EUR terms and 18.2% in HUF terms; while the Polish WIG20 Index declined by 11.7% in EUR and 9.5% in PLN. In Prague, the...
MARKET COMMENT - RDX DOWN MORE THAN IN 1998, MSCI RUSSIA THE MOST SINCE 2008 AS MOSCOW TRADING REMAINS CLOSEDWhile Moscow stock trading remains closed, offshore and composite indexes dropped another 6-57%. The RDX offshore DR index has now fallen 91% since its October decade-long peak, a fall sharper than that of 1998 or 2008. The government announced plans to support the market with share purchases, while capital restrictions and supply shocks have also been in the news.STORIES> Government mull...
КОММЕНТАРИЙ И ПРОГНОЗСегодня утром котировки Брент выросли до $111/барр., и, вероятно, поднимутся еще выше, хотя МЭА объявило, что страны ОЭСР скоординированно выведут на рынок 60 млн барр. нефти из своих стратегических резервов. После объявлений ВР и Equinor, сделанных ранее на этой неделе, еще несколько крупных международных нефтяных компаний сообщили о решении продать свой бизнес в России или выразили серьезную обеспокоенность сложившейся ситуацией.НОВОСТИ> Нехватка предложения начала сказыва...
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has led to unprecedented dislocations of capital and resources, on top of human tragedies. The sanctions imposed, by the world’s key nations, on Russia, its politicians, institutions, companies and businessmen, as well as the counter-measures introduced by the Russian government, are wide-ranging and continue to be imposed on a daily basis. The most severe sanctions are related to the freezing of the CBR’s FX reserves, as well as the freezing of non-residents’ assets...
MARKET COMMENT - NONRESIDENT SECURITY SALES FROZEN; POSSIBLE RUSSIA-UKRAINE NEGOTIATIONS IN FOCUSThe RTS finished the week with a 33% decline to 937 and valuations at levels not seen since 2008 or earlier. This morning, the CBR froze security sales for nonresidents and delayed the opening of stock trading until at least 13:00 Moscow time. Negotiations scheduled between Russia, Ukraine and Belarus are the obvious focal point for markets, as well as any other news flow on market restrictions or sa...
КОММЕНТАРИЙ И ПРОГНОЗ - ЗАПРЕТ ДЛЯ НЕРЕЗИДЕНТОВ НА ПРОДАЖУ РОССИЙСКИХ ЦЕННЫХ БУМАГ; В ЦЕНТРЕ ВНИМАНИЯ ПЕРЕГОВОРЫ МЕЖДУ УКРАИНОЙ И РОССИЕЙИндекс РТС по итогам прошлой недели упал на 33% до 937 пунктов, рыночные оценки достигли уровней, которые не наблюдались как минимум с 2008 года. Сегодня утром Банк России ввел запрет для нерезидентов на продажу российских ценных бумаг и отложил начало торгов на рынке акций до 15:00 мск. В центре внимания сейчас, конечно, переговоры между Россией и Украиной, а ...
HEADLINES: • EME Macro/Strategy: forecasts guidance update • Erste Bank: very solid 4Q21, issues optimistic 2022E guidance and recommends 2021 DPS of EUR 1.6 • LiveChat Software: 3Q21-22 (calendar 4Q21) results - EBITDA up 15% yoy, 6% below the consensus NEGATIVE • Electrica: 4Q21 results review - deep losses reported NEGATIVE • Bittnet Systems: 4Q21 results review - 71% yoy EBITDA drop, 81% below our estimate NEGATIVE • AD Plastik: 4Q21 review - weaker than expected, and outlook uncertain NEG...
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