EME Equity Market – November 2022 Market performance – Turkey does it again, breezing past everyone else, once more, in November. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced 11.6% mom in EUR terms and 16.7% mom in USD. The ISE30 index, again, boasted the best performance among our coverage, adding 18.6% mom in EUR terms and 23.9% mom in local currency (lcl) terms. Positive performances were also recorded in the WIG (+14.0% EU /13.0% lcl mom), the BUX (+12.6% EUR/12.0% lcl mom), the BET (+8.4% EUR/8.6% lcl...
HEADLINES: • Saudi Arabian tech: from oil to data and beyond (initiating on Solutions by STC with a BUY, and Jahez with a HOLD) • Motor Oil Hellas: motoring beyond oil (stays BUY) • Kofola: 3Q22 conference call takeaways NEUTRAL • Photon Energy: increases stake in Lerta, plans to take full control by the year-end • PKO BP: Puls Biznesu on potential changes in management board NEGATIVE • Shoper: key takeaways from the PAP interview with the CEO on the 2023E outlook NEUTRAL • Alrosa: Mir mine p...
EME Equity Market – October 2022 Market performance – in a positive month across the board, Turkey outperforms yet again. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced by 12.7% mom in EUR terms and 14.4% mom in USD. The ISE30 was, once again, the best-performing index in our coverage, adding 23.4% mom in EUR terms and 25.2% in local currency terms. All the other indices recorded positive performances as well, with the WIG (+14.8% EUR / 11.5% lcl), the BUX (+11.4% EUR / 8.5% lcl) and the ASE (+10.3% EUR) del...
HEADLINES: • LPP: 2Q22 above expectations; FY22E guidance maintained; Russian operations sold for PLN 1.7bn POSITIVE • CD Projekt: follow-up on strategy update - press comments and our 1-on-1 NEUTRAL • STS Group: 3Q NGR growth of 21% yoy POSITIVE • Alior Bank: tops up credit holiday provisions, implies take-up ratio of 69% NEUTRAL • Alrosa: excluded from the latest EU sanctions list NEUTRAL • Zagreb Stock Exchange: share buyback announcement NEUTRAL • Ten Square Games: 3Q22 bookings up by 11% q...
EME Equity Market – September 2022 Market performance – in a rough month for the markets, Turkey emerges as the top-performing region, once again. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined 8.3% mom in EUR terms and 10.7% mom in USD in September; while the ISE index outperformed all the other indices once again, but with a muted performance this time, adding just 1.0% mom in EUR terms and 0.1% in local currency terms. All the other indices recorded negative performances, with the Czech PX Index losing 4....
HEADLINES: • EME Macro/Strategy: Greece - a positive growth story • Public Power Corporation: 2Q EBITDA +5% yoy, FY22E guidance maintained NEUTRAL • Ten Square Games: management call takeaways NEUTRAL • CD Projekt: Cyberpunk paid expansion next year not for old-generation consoles NEGATIVE • LiveChat Software: patents method of chat communication rating in the US POSITIVE • Wizz Air: Blue Air forced to suspend operations, positive for Wizz Air and Ryanair • Alrosa: key points from the Easter...
EME Equity Market – May 2022 Market performance – markets down mostly, as MSCI EM Europe Index declines 3.6%. The MSCI EM Europe Index fell 3.6% mom and 2.0% mom in EUR and USD terms, respectively, in May. The best-performing index was the Russian MOEX, which added 6.3% mom in EUR terms, but declined 3.7% mom in local currency. However, we note that, with the CBR ban on short selling and restrictions on international investors, as well various sanctions, this performance is not fully comparable ...
CZ: CEZ - CEZ not to bid for RWE's storage assets in Czechia, press (neutral) PL: PKO BP - 9% wage hike offered to half of staff (neutral) RU: Polyus - New shareholder may add its representative to the board (neutral) RU: Tatneft - Proposed final DPS revealed weaker than expected payout for 2021 (negative)
HEADLINES: • Georgian banks: game on - banks are cheap (Bank of Georgia upgraded to BUY, TBC Bank Group stays BUY) • Bank Handlowy: posts huge turnaround in profitability in 1Q22 POSITIVE • Coca-Cola Icecek: 1Q22 - better than expected results POSITIVE • Banca Transilvania: 1Q22 results solid and on track to meet FY22E budget • Aygaz: 1Q22 results review - 44% NI beat, driven by Entek and Tupras • Motor Oil Hellas: deal with Ellaktor - strong expansion into RES • Public Power Corporation: i...
EME Equity Market – April 2022 Market performance – regional benchmarks performance rather mixed in April. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 5.3% in EUR terms and by 9.9% in USD. The best-performing market was Turkey, whose equities gained 13.3% in EUR terms and 9.2% in local currency. Russia’s MOEX Index added 9.0% in EUR terms, but declined by 9.6% in local currency. In Greece, the ASE Index advanced by 4.9% in EUR terms, the last to end the month in the black; while Romania’s BET Index rec...
HEADLINES: • Russian commodities: the long and short side of it • Arcelik: 1Q22 results - as expected NEUTRAL • Turkish banks: number of changes by the CBT • Ten Square Games: management recommends PLN 10 DPS from the 2021 net profit POSITIVE • Kety: management recommends PLN 52.4 DPS (8% dividend yield) from the 2021 profit NEUTRAL • Norilsk Nickel: final 2021 dividend yield at 5.9%, ADR holders may not receive payment • Alrosa: Russian rough diamonds stop flowing to main Indian manufacturi...
HEADLINES: • Polish financials: PZU - higher rates and for longer (stays BUY); Bank Pekao - standing firm against the headwinds (stays BUY); Alior Bank - too cheap to ignore (upgraded to BUY) • Romania macro: the government announces a support package for both individuals and companies • Fondul Proprietatea: end-March NAV could be at least 5% higher mom • Famur: 4Q21 EBITDA 16% below market expectations NEGATIVE • LPP: FY22E rollout plans raised to 500k sqm POSITIVE • Inter Cars: CFO says tha...
EME Equity Market – March 2022 Market performance – regional benchmarks mostly in the black, despite the MSCI EM Europe Index losing half of its value. Following its decline in February, the MSCI EM Europe Index lost in March as well, declining by 49.5% in EUR terms and 50.1% in USD terms. Russia’s MOEX Index added 13.2% in EUR terms and 9.4% RUB terms (we note that Russian companies’ GDRs are still suspended for trading). The Turkish ISE30 Index added 8.2% in EUR terms and 13.3% in local curren...
AT: Kapsch TraffiCom - Arbitration court decides in favour of Kapsch TrafficCom regarding German toll claim (positive) DE: Encavis - Encavis Asset Management bought 11 MWp wind park for EIF II fund (neutral) RO: Electrica - Distribution tariffs for electricity will increase starting April 1 (positive) RU: ALROSA - Tiffany refused to buy diamonds with a Russian origin (negative) RU: Petropavlovsk - Gold sales complicated on UK sanctions against Gazprombank (negative) RU: Russian gold ...
AT: AT&S - CEO sees chip crisis continue into 2023, also cost overruns in Malaysia, but within budget (neutral) PL: mBank - Adding 60 bps on CET1 via securitization transaction (positive) PL: PKO BP/Alior - PKO BP appoints the new deputy CEO from Alior (neutral) RU: ALROSA - The company's assets/operations sanctioned by the UK (negative) RU: Russia - The CBR's gold reserves sanctioned by the US (negative)
MARKET COMMENT - RSPP PROPOSES STRIPPING MINORITY RIGHTS, EU AND US OFFICIALS CONSIDER MORE SANCTIONS AND EXPELLING RUSSIA FROM THE G20The Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs proposed to the government to strip nonresident minority shareholders of their shareholder rights on a temporary basis, according to RBC and other sources. Top EU and US officials remarked that more sanctions would be considered Thursday. Equity trading remains suspended in Russia. STORIES> RSPP proposes to st...
КОММЕНТАРИЙ И ПРОГНОЗ - РСПП ПРЕДЛАГАЕТ ВРЕМЕННО ОГРАНИЧИТЬ В ПРАВАХ ИНОСТРАННЫХ МИНОРИТАРИЕВ, ЕС И США РАССМАТРИВАЮТ ВОЗМОЖНОСТЬ ВВЕДЕНИЯ НОВЫХ САНКЦИЙРоссийский союз промышленников и предпринимателей предложил правительству временно ограничить в правах иностранных миноритариев, сообщают РБК и другие источники. ЕС и США рассмотрят в четверг возможность введения новых санкций. Торги акциями на МосБирже по-прежнему не проводятся. НОВОСТИ> Цены на нефть после ралли начали стабилизироваться в предд...
HEADLINES: • Romanian energy: revised draft support scheme NEUTRAL • Titan Cement: 4Q21 results - another soft quarter, due to cost inflation • Warsaw Stock Exchange: 4Q21 EBITDA 4% above consensus • Krka: currently impossible to estimate the impact of the Ukraine conflict NEUTRAL • Turkey macro: CBT on hold, as expected • GTC: the Board has appointed Zoltan Fekete as the new CEO NEUTRAL • Raiffeisen Bank: statement on its Russian exposure; admits the possibility of a full exit NEGATIVE • A...
MARKET COMMENT - POLYMETAL TUMBLES 33% AS FTSE EXCLUSION FURTHERS RUSSIA'S ISOLATION FROM GLOBAL MARKETSMoscow equity trading remains closed by the CBR. Among the only instruments still trading, Polymetal's London listing fell 33%, while FTSE announced the exclusion of the shares from its indexes, eliminating one of the last examples of Russia being included in global markets. STORIES> Oil and gas: Not benefiting much from strong Brent, but gaining from weak ruble> Tatneft: Moderate miss in 4Q2...
КОММЕНТАРИЙ И ПРОГНОЗ - АКЦИИ ПОЛИМЕТАЛЛА УПАЛИ В ЦЕНЕ НА 33% ПОСЛЕ ИСКЛЮЧЕНИЯ ИЗ ИНДЕКСОВ FTSEТорги акциями на Московской бирже по-прежнему не проводятся по решению ЦБ РФ. Бумаги Полиметалла с листингом в Лондоне - один из немногих российских инструментов, остававшийся на глобальных рынках, - упали в цене на 33% после того, как FTSE объявила об их исключении из своих индексов. Рубль торгуется около 105-110 за доллар. НОВОСТИ> Цены на нефть под давлением перед публикацией ежемесячного отчета МЭА...
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