Weekly news, topics & discussion

In the past week, we published an update on Equinor; we expect lowered renewables targets and capex guidance at the upcoming Capital Markets Update to be overshadowed by limited will or capacity for attractive shareholder distributions beyond 2025. We see significant downside risk for the stock to trade in line with peers on 2026e total shareholder yields. In other news, Panoro Energy released its Q3 results; we consider the report fairly neutral. Finally, production at Johan Sverdrup is back to...

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 22/11/2024

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C: Portion of deeper target at Welchau flows water on test – Two intervals (total of ~16 m) in the Steinalm formation. were tested at a stable rate (natural flow) of 240-290 bbl/d of drilling mud, likely contaminated formation water and some oil traces. Gas was initially observed at surface. While the achieved flow rate highlights the high permeability of the natural fractures, the absence of hydrocarbons is disappoi...

Production ramping up, dividends will follow

Panoro Energy ASA (OSE: PEN): Production reaching 13 mbbl/d. Two high ...

• There were no surprises in the 3Q24 accounts. • Since last week, WI production has increased from 12.5 mbbl/d to 13 mbbl/d. • Gross production in Gabon continues to be ~40 mbbl/d. Three further workovers for ESP installation are planned during 4Q24. The nameplate capacity of the FPSO could be increased by 10% to 44 mbbl/d. • Gross production in EG stands at 29 mbbl/d. The second infill well is starting production and could take overall gross production in EG to 35 mbbl/d. This new well could ...

Q3: Production now above 13kboe/d

Q3 EBIT of USD 10m vs ABGSCe of USD 10m. Production above 13kboe/d, cons FY'24 EBITDA looks ~14% too high. Minor news: negative revisions for Q4 mitigated by potential increase to '25 production.

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector

Panoro Energy (Buy, TP: NOK38.00) - Exiting the year on a high

We forecast USD17m in Q3 EBITDA (no reliable consensus). While 2024 has been hampered by operational issues, we still see 2024 exit production of ~13kboed, with Dussafu already producing at a plateau of 40kboed (gross) in mid-November. Thus, with most hiccups hopefully over, we believe Panoro is well positioned for significant FCF expansion in 2025–2026e, supported by production growth and a decline in capex. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to NOK38 (39), factoring in increase...

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 15/11/2024

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/CN)C; Target price of £0.70 per share: 1.9 mbbl/d at latest CN well. Water disposal infrastructure operational. High net cash – The fifth horizontal well at Carrizales Norte (CNB HZ-6) is producing 1.9 mbbl/d of oil (0.95 mbbl/d net to Arrow) with a water cut of 31%. The well reached TD ~ one month ago. After ~1 month of production, CNB HZ-1 and CNB HZ-3 were also producing >30% water with ~1 mbbl/d oil produ...

US shale: limited revisions and colour on 2025 activity levels

Our Q3 survey of the US shale universe showed limited revisions to guidance for 2024, and we still expect muted 2024 production growth of ~4–5% YOY (+8% YOY in 2023). Our survey also suggests capex down ~2% YOY, as the companies continue to guide for flat activity. Limited colour was provided on 2025 activity levels and associated capex, which we will know more about in the Q4 results season. For Q3, our universe marginally underspent its cash flow, albeit with net debt continuing to build QOQ a...

Energy Morning - 13 November 2024

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector.

Renewable Weekly – 11 November 2024

Weekly news, topics & discussion

This week, DNO reported Q3 underlying results fairly in line with our estimates. It also introduced a long-term production guidance for its North Sea operations, which we find a bit too aggressive. Still, we estimate the North Sea net production to increase from 15kboed in 2024 to >20kboed in 2027. In other news, Equinor acquired a 11.8% stake from Sval Energi in the Halten East development, and BlueNord’s preliminary October production figures were at the lower end of its Q4 base production gui...

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 01/11/2024

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; Target price of A$0.70 per share: Approvals to start well testing at Welchau received. Rig and test equipment mobilized – All necessary approvals have been received to commence flow testing operations on the Welchau-1 discovery well for the period from 30 October 2024 until 31 March 2025. A workover rig has been mobilised to the Welchau-1 drill site with flow testing due to commence during the second half of Novem...

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 11/06/2024

Our baseline scenario materialised last night: Donald Trump seems to be on course to win the US presidential election, and the choice of the electorate is unlikely to be challenged. He could end up with a majority in both houses of Congress. US equities will be the first to benefit from this development. In European equities, the biggest winners will be Energy, Media, Metals, Construction & Materials, Financial Services and Insurance. More at risk, however, are the Utilities, Spirits,...

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 06/11/2024

Notre scénario central s’est concrétisé dans la nuit : Donald Trump remporte la présidentielle américaine, et le choix des électeurs ne devrait pas être contesté. Il pourrait disposer d’une majorité dans les deux assemblées. Les actions américaines en seront les premières bénéficiaires. Sur les actions européennes, les secteurs les plus gagnants seront l’Energie, les Médias, les Métaux, Construction & Materials, Financial Services, Insurance. Sont en revanche plus à risque Utilities, ...

Vestas : Caution still the watchword

>Outperform recommendation, target price of DKK 135 (vs DKK 160) - After the Q3 2024 results release and the conference call, we have revised down our sequence of EPS for 2024-2026 and we reiterate our Underperform rating (despite a performance of -44% YtD), with a target price adjusted to DKK 135). Although the situation is normalising for Power Solutions, we see several risks, particularly with regard to the medium-term EBIT target (group margin expected at 10%), i....

Vestas Wind Systems (Buy, TP: DKK215.00) - Service, service and servic...

The Q2 profit warning noted underlying weaknesses in the Service business, and the Q3 report showed continued profitability issues for Service. Thus, we have become even more conservative on the Service business and have cut our group adj. EBIT by c9% on average in 2024–2026e, reduced our target price to DKK215 (235) in line with these cuts, and reiterate our BUY.

Vestas : La prudence reste de mise

>Opinion Sous-performance OC 135 DKK (vs 160 DKK) - Post publication et conférence call, nous ajustons en baisse notre séquence d’EBITDA 2024/26e de 25% en moyenne et réitérons notre recommandation Sous-performance (malgré une performance YtD de -44%) avec un OC abaissé à 135 DKK. Même si la situation est en voie de normalisation du côté de Power Solutions, nous identifions plusieurs risques notamment sur l’objectif d’EBIT à MT (marge groupe attendue à 10%) à savoir ...

Confidence hit