2026: Drilling Resumes in Gabon, EG Normalises, and Visibility Improves on EG‑23
• 4Q25 production averaged 9,928 boe/d, comprising 5,343 boe/d from Gabon (as previously reported by BW Energy), 1,511 boe/d from Tunisia, and 2,374 boe/d from Equatorial Guinea.• EG production remains constrained by unplanned facilities‑related downtime at Ceiba. The operator continues to expect a return to normal operating levels in 1Q26.
• A new EG infill drilling programme could be sanctioned around YE26, with drilling expected to begin in 2027 or early 2028 and deliver growth thereafter. We currently assume this would restore EG gross production to ~30 mbbl/d (Panoro WI: 14.25%). Panoro reported 16.3 mmbbl of WI 2P reserves in EG at YE25.
• In Gabon, four new MaBoMo Phase 2 wells keep the asset on track to return to ~40 mbbl/d gross production in 2H26 (Panoro WI: 17.5%).
• The company may also provide greater visibility on EG‑23 around the summer 2026. The key asset is the Estrella discovery, to which we currently attribute ~40 mmboe—around one‑third of the 112 mmboe of net discovered resources estimated from pre‑existing data by the EG Ministry of Mines and Hydrocarbons. Estrella has been high‑graded for potential fast‑track appraisal and development, with tie‑back potential to existing infrastructure and a broad inventory of additional prospects under evaluation.
• EG-23 has the potential to become a material contributor to our valuation.
• Panoro could also provide details on the prospectivity of Niosi, Guduma and Dussafu, following interpretation of the recently acquired seismic.
• We have not revised our 2026 capex forecast nor our NOK 46/sh target price, pending disclosure of the company’s FY26 budget.
Financials
Panoro held ~US$77.6 mm in cash at YE26, including US$25 mm of advances taken against future oil liftings. Gross debt remained unchanged at US$150 mm. The company lifted 1.05 mmbbl in 4Q25 and had previously indicated it would hold up to 0.3 mmbbl of crude inventory at YE25. At US$65/bbl, this inventory equates to up to ~US$20 mm.
Valuation
Our 2P NAV and ReNAV stand at NOK30 per share and NOK44 per share, respectively. The current share price continues to reflect a deep discount to 2P NAV.
Panoro Energy is an international independent oil and gas company engaged in the exploration and production of oil and gas resources in Brazil and West Africa. In Brazil, Co. participates in a number of oil and gas licenses located in the Santos basin outside the south-east coast of Brazil and in the Camamu-Almada basin in the state of Bahia. In West Africa, Co. participates in a number of licences in Nigeria and Gabon. As of Dec 31 2013, Co.'s commercial production is from the Manati field in Brazil.
Auctus Advisors is a specialist Equity Capital Markets and Advisory business with a focus in the Energy Sector.
The partners have complementary skill sets, with decades of experience across Equity Capital Markets, Investment Banking and the Energy industry. We have worked at Société Générale, Canaccord Capital, BMO Capital Markets and Schlumberger. Most recently we have worked together for many years at GMP FirstEnergy.
Auctus has been set up at the beginning of a new decade in which we see significant opportunities in the Energy space. Globally, demand for energy is at record levels and continues to grow. Conversely, investment in traditional energy sources has been severely constrained. We believe this imbalance creates opportunities for both companies and investors.
Auctus provides Corporate Broking, Equity Research and Investment Banking services.
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