reports
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
Muted 2025 growth expectations
Following Q1 earnings calls by some of the oil service companies, 2025 outlooks appear more challenging than previously. Baker Hughes expects international upstream spending to decline by mid- to high-single digits, while Halliburton sees its international revenues flat to slightly down. Furthermore, Weatherford expects 2025 international revenue to decline by low double- to mid-double digits. Precision Drilling flagged additional rig suspensions by Saudi Aramco, and SLB highlighted a slow start...
SDRL SEADRILL LTD
ARCHERO ARCHER
TGS TGS-NOPEC GEOPHYSICAL COMPANY ASA
ODL ODFJELL DRILLING
AKSOO AKER SOLUTIONS ASA
DO DIAMOND OFFSHORE DRILLING INC.
RIGN TRANSOCEAN LTD.
BWO BW OFFSHORE LIMITED
BORR BORR DRILLING
SHLF SHELF DRILLING LTD.
VAL VALARIS LTD
NE NOBLE CORP NEW
OTL ODFJELL TECHNOLOGY LTD
SDNS SHELF DRILLING NORTH SEA
DDRIL DOLPHIN DRILLING
DOFG DOF GROUP ASA
VTURA VENTURA OFFSHORE
PLSV PARATUS ENERGY SERVICES LTD.
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
ENI capex cut but maintains shareholder returns
Driven by macro headwinds and uncertainty around trade tariffs, ENI was the first large oil company to introduce capex cuts for 2025, contributing to a more challenging business environment for oil services. Over the past five years, we estimate ENI to have been the oil major with strongest offshore spending growth, and it has been considered active and opportunistic while others have been more conservative. Hence, we see its reduction as a soft datapoint for oil services. ENI has optimised its ...
SDRL SEADRILL LTD
ARCHERO ARCHER
TGS TGS-NOPEC GEOPHYSICAL COMPANY ASA
ODL ODFJELL DRILLING
AKSOO AKER SOLUTIONS ASA
DO DIAMOND OFFSHORE DRILLING INC.
RIGN TRANSOCEAN LTD.
BWO BW OFFSHORE LIMITED
BORR BORR DRILLING
SHLF SHELF DRILLING LTD.
VAL VALARIS LTD
NE NOBLE CORP NEW
OTL ODFJELL TECHNOLOGY LTD
SDNS SHELF DRILLING NORTH SEA
DDRIL DOLPHIN DRILLING
DOFG DOF GROUP ASA
VTURA VENTURA OFFSHORE
PLSV PARATUS ENERGY SERVICES LTD.
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
E&P spending sensitivity explored
With an oil price at the mid-USD60s/bbl level, focus on the oil major overspending situation, and resulting impact on the outlook for offshore-focused oil services, is set to increase further. While oil companies would likely cut, or even eliminate, buyback programmes first, we expect increased focus on spending reductions and efficiencies, creating a more challenging business environment for oil services. Hence, we see a risk of oil companies taking a more cautious approach, resulting in projec...
SDRL SEADRILL LTD
ARCHERO ARCHER
TGS TGS-NOPEC GEOPHYSICAL COMPANY ASA
ODL ODFJELL DRILLING
AKSOO AKER SOLUTIONS ASA
DO DIAMOND OFFSHORE DRILLING INC.
RIGN TRANSOCEAN LTD.
BWO BW OFFSHORE LIMITED
BORR BORR DRILLING
SHLF SHELF DRILLING LTD.
VAL VALARIS LTD
NE NOBLE CORP NEW
OTL ODFJELL TECHNOLOGY LTD
SDNS SHELF DRILLING NORTH SEA
DDRIL DOLPHIN DRILLING
DOFG DOF GROUP ASA
VTURA VENTURA OFFSHORE
PLSV PARATUS ENERGY SERVICES LTD.
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
In a mid-cycle plateau
Following recent updates from E&P companies, we have reduced our 2025 offshore spending estimate to 0.5% (from c3% earlier this year). This is driven by a combination of actual 2024 spending being higher than expected (8% versus 4% previously), creating tougher comparables and a reduction in spending plans from Pemex in 2025. Despite growth flattening out, we still see the cycle building in duration, with execution of deepwater developments remaining on the agenda, albeit with a delayed executio...
SDRL SEADRILL LTD
ARCHERO ARCHER
TGS TGS-NOPEC GEOPHYSICAL COMPANY ASA
ODL ODFJELL DRILLING
AKSOO AKER SOLUTIONS ASA
DO DIAMOND OFFSHORE DRILLING INC.
RIGN TRANSOCEAN LTD.
BWO BW OFFSHORE LIMITED
BORR BORR DRILLING
SHLF SHELF DRILLING LTD.
VAL VALARIS LTD
NE NOBLE CORP NEW
OTL ODFJELL TECHNOLOGY LTD
SDNS SHELF DRILLING NORTH SEA
DDRIL DOLPHIN DRILLING
DOFG DOF GROUP ASA
VTURA VENTURA OFFSHORE
PLSV PARATUS ENERGY SERVICES LTD.
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
Offshore spending plateauing
After reviewing major oil companies’ most recent spending plans, we estimate offshore spending growth of c3% YOY in 2025 (down from c5% late last year and c8% six months ago). We believe a combination of supply-chain bottlenecks, efficiency gains, and capital discipline among oil companies are the main reasons for spending growth fading, resulting in a mid-cycle plateau. On the flip side, the cycle keeps building duration, as we see investments being pushed into 2026–2027. Also, activity levels ...
SDRL SEADRILL LTD
ARCHERO ARCHER
TGS TGS-NOPEC GEOPHYSICAL COMPANY ASA
ODL ODFJELL DRILLING
AKSOO AKER SOLUTIONS ASA
DO DIAMOND OFFSHORE DRILLING INC.
RIGN TRANSOCEAN LTD.
BWO BW OFFSHORE LIMITED
BORR BORR DRILLING
SHLF SHELF DRILLING LTD.
VAL VALARIS LTD
NE NOBLE CORP NEW
OTL ODFJELL TECHNOLOGY LTD
SDNS SHELF DRILLING NORTH SEA
DDRIL DOLPHIN DRILLING
DOFG DOF GROUP ASA
VTURA VENTURA OFFSHORE
PLSV PARATUS ENERGY SERVICES LTD.
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
Slow start to 2025 for offshore, but cycle duration highlighted
SLB said on its recent Q4 earnings call that it expects flat global upstream spending YOY in 2025, while Halliburton guided for flat group revenue. Both expect offshore activity to improve as the year progresses, based on numerous FIDs late-2025 and into 2026 – but implying a slow start to the year. These comments mirror feedback we have had from industry sources, although we are already seeing offshore drilling campaigns slipping towards the end of 2026, or even into 2027. Hence, their comments...
SDRL SEADRILL LTD
ARCHERO ARCHER
TGS TGS-NOPEC GEOPHYSICAL COMPANY ASA
ODL ODFJELL DRILLING
AKSOO AKER SOLUTIONS ASA
DO DIAMOND OFFSHORE DRILLING INC.
RIGN TRANSOCEAN LTD.
BWO BW OFFSHORE LIMITED
BORR BORR DRILLING
SHLF SHELF DRILLING LTD.
VAL VALARIS LTD
NE NOBLE CORP NEW
OTL ODFJELL TECHNOLOGY LTD
SDNS SHELF DRILLING NORTH SEA
DDRIL DOLPHIN DRILLING
DOFG DOF GROUP ASA
VTURA VENTURA OFFSHORE
PLSV PARATUS ENERGY SERVICES LTD.
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
ExxonMobil update highlights efficiency, no incremental demand for oil...
From an oil services perspective, we consider the key takeaway from ExxonMobil’s corporate update to be continued high and improving capital efficiency, allowing it to do “more with less”. By 2030e, it plans to increase production by c1m barrels per day to 5.4m barrels per day on largely flat upstream capex compared to 2023–2024 levels. This implies further efficiency improvement, which we consider on the downside for the oil services industry as it implies no need for incremental service capaci...
SDRL SEADRILL LTD
ARCHERO ARCHER
TGS TGS-NOPEC GEOPHYSICAL COMPANY ASA
ODL ODFJELL DRILLING
AKSOO AKER SOLUTIONS ASA
DO DIAMOND OFFSHORE DRILLING INC.
RIGN TRANSOCEAN LTD.
BWO BW OFFSHORE LIMITED
BORR BORR DRILLING
SHLF SHELF DRILLING LTD.
VAL VALARIS LTD
NE NOBLE CORP NEW
OTL ODFJELL TECHNOLOGY LTD
SDNS SHELF DRILLING NORTH SEA
DDRIL DOLPHIN DRILLING
DOFG DOF GROUP ASA
VTURA VENTURA OFFSHORE
PLSV PARATUS ENERGY SERVICES LTD.
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
Petrobras rig pool tender appears to have awarded three of four rig sl...
For the Petrobras ‘rig pool’ tender, which had bids due in mid-October, bid evaluation appears to have been completed. The tender was for “up to” four deepwater rigs with 3-year duration across three lots. It seems Petrobras has only progressed with three of the maximum four rigs it could award. Lots 1 and 2 appear to have gone to local contractors Constellation and Etesco, while only Seadrill was selected in Lot 3, making up the three rigs in total (meaning Valaris was not selected in Lot 3). W...
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
Petrobras FPSO delays may hit service volumes but lengthen cycle
Being the largest global consumer of deepwater oil services, Petrobras’ strategic plans tend to get investor attention. On the positive side, its latest 5-year plan sees 5% higher E&P spending than the previous one, and has a more stable phasing between the years, which is supportive for the cycle duration. However, several FPSOs are facing significant delays, which is on the downside for oil services, leading to delays for deepwater oilfield services (primarily drilling and subsea), likely resu...
SDRL SEADRILL LTD
ARCHERO ARCHER
TGS TGS-NOPEC GEOPHYSICAL COMPANY ASA
ODL ODFJELL DRILLING
AKSOO AKER SOLUTIONS ASA
DO DIAMOND OFFSHORE DRILLING INC.
RIGN TRANSOCEAN LTD.
BWO BW OFFSHORE LIMITED
BORR BORR DRILLING
SHLF SHELF DRILLING LTD.
VAL VALARIS LTD
NE NOBLE CORP NEW
OTL ODFJELL TECHNOLOGY LTD
SDNS SHELF DRILLING NORTH SEA
DDRIL DOLPHIN DRILLING
DOFG DOF GROUP ASA
VTURA VENTURA OFFSHORE
PLSV PARATUS ENERGY SERVICES LTD.
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
Pemex effect looks to be limited for now
Following uncertainty yesterday related to Pemex’s 2024 budget cuts and potential reduction in rig count, we understand that the initial effect looks to be limited to a handful of rigs (potentially four) for a short period only. Affected rigs look to be locally owned units, which suggest that international contractors (Borr Drilling and Paratus Energy) are not affected. Hence, we now see a scenario with less-direct effect for international contractors than feared by the capital market yesterday....
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
Jackup uncertainty building
With reports of Pemex budget cuts and potential rig suspensions, additional uncertainty is added to the jackup market. The overhang from two rounds of Saudi Aramco suspensions (totalling 28 rigs, c6% of global supply) have been slow to absorb, and are likely to persist through 2025. With looming risk of even more Aramco suspensions, and rigs possibly being released in Mexico, we see a continued high competitive environment on new tenders. Dayrates for most premium jobs are cUSD120k–130k (a tad b...
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
Pemex saving plans add to jackup uncertainty
Several news reports suggest Pemex plans to cut USD1.4bn from its E&P budget this year. As the budget reduction is aimed at drilling, among others, we see a risk of jackup suspension. Pemex has 26 jackups chartered from contractors, with Borr Drilling and Paratus (through Fontis Energy) having most exposure with five rigs each, and such rigs representing 18% and 41% of 2025e EBITDA. The duration of suspensions appears unclear for now; while savings are limited to this year’s budget, reports sugg...
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
Petrobras rig pool tender saw limited competition and likely supportiv...
Today, the Petrobras ‘rig pool’ tender for up to four deepwater rigs with 3-year duration across three lots closed. Initially, it appears that seven contractors with nine rigs participated, split between four locals (Constellation, Etesco, Foresea and Ventura) and three international contractors (Seadrill, Valaris and Transocean). Hence, the participation would be less than at the recent Petrobras tender for Sepia/Atapu, which saw nine contractors taking part with 15 rigs. With different technic...
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