reports
- Alden Gabriel Lam
- Arsit Pamaranont
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Benyamin Mikael
- Damon Shen
- Jack Goh Tooan Orng
- Jack Lai Yuan Khai
- Jieqi Liu
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Lester Siew
- Ming San Soong
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
- Tanapon Cholkadidamrongkul
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Monday, September 29, 2025
Greater China Company Results | New World Development (17 HK/SELL/HK$7.84/Target: HK$6.90) In FY25, NWD reported a HK$16.3b loss and halted dividends but made progress in improving cash flow and debt structure. Short-term debt fell to HK$6.6b, or 4.5% of total debt. Debt reduction remains the priority for FY26, supported by the property sales target of HK$27b and lower capex. Management has no immediate plans for placement, rights issues or CB, but is open to considering various financing tools...
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
Alibaba Group (9988 HK): APSARA Conference 2025 Key Takeaways
We attended the Alibaba Cloud Apsara Conference 2025 (“云栖大会”) on 24-26 Sep 25 and noted various key growth drivers: a) potential upward revision of its Rmb380b three-year AI infrastructure capex plan; b) data centre energy consumption projected to rise 10x by 2032 vs 2022, underscoring computing demand; c) expanded partnerships, including NVIDIA, with PAI platform integration for embodied intelligence and autonomous driving; and d) launch of seven new Qwen models. Maintain BUY with a higher targ...
- Damon Shen
- Greater China Research Team
- Jieqi Liu
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
Greater China Daily: Monday, September 29, 2025
Top Stories Company Results | New World Development (17 HK/SELL/HK$7.84/Target: HK$6.90) In FY25, NWD reported a HK$16.3b loss and halted dividends but made progress in improving cash flow and debt structure. Short-term debt fell to HK$6.6b, or 4.5% of total debt. Debt reduction remains the priority for FY26, supported by the property sales target of HK$27b and lower capex. Management has no immediate plans for placement, rights issues or CB, but is open to considering various financing tools. ...
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
China Internet: Re-valuation On Shifting Dynamics Of AI Infrastructure...
Following the release of 2Q25 results, the market has started to re-value AI-related and ad-tech upgrade themes. Garnering the most interest was the AI theme driven by: a) re-accelerated cloud revenue growth, b) the emergence of AI agents, c) broader AI application, and d) self-sufficiency in chip development. Potential beneficiaries of the AI theme poised for continuous re-rating include Alibaba, Tencent and Baidu. Tongcheng could see robust travel demand during Golden Week. Maintain OVERWEIGHT...
JD JD.COM INC. SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
K3SD BAIDU INC SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
A117ME ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD. SPONSORED ADR
3K1 KINGSOFT CORP. LTD.
00700 TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD.
PDD PINDUODUO INC. SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
03690 MEITUAN CLASS B
00780 TONGCHENG-ELONG HOLDINGS LIMITED
TCOM TRIP.COM GROUP LTD. SPONSORED ADR
BEKE KE HOLDINGS INC. SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
09988 ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD.
09999 NETEASE INC
09618 JD.COM INC. CLASS A
01024 KUAISHOU TECHNOLOGY CLASS B
09888 BAIDU INC
02423 KE HOLDINGS INC.
09961 CTRIP.COM INTERNATIONAL
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
China Internet: Key Takeaways From Marketing Trip
Key investor focus areas discussed during the marketing trip include: a) key drivers for AI cloud and applications outperformance, b) sustainability of monetisation of AI applications, c) ROI of accelerating capex, d) self-sufficiency in chips development, and e) where the competition in food delivery and quick commerce is ultimately headed. We foresee that AI/AI Cloud, online gaming and OTAs are poised to benefit from further re-rating, supported by their outperformance in growth. Maintain OVER...
JD JD.COM INC. SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
K3SD BAIDU INC SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
A117ME ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD. SPONSORED ADR
3K1 KINGSOFT CORP. LTD.
00700 TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD.
PDD PINDUODUO INC. SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
03690 MEITUAN CLASS B
00780 TONGCHENG-ELONG HOLDINGS LIMITED
TCOM TRIP.COM GROUP LTD. SPONSORED ADR
BEKE KE HOLDINGS INC. SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
09988 ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD.
09999 NETEASE INC
09618 JD.COM INC. CLASS A
01024 KUAISHOU TECHNOLOGY CLASS B
09888 BAIDU INC
02423 KE HOLDINGS INC.
09961 CTRIP.COM INTERNATIONAL
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
Baidu Inc (9888 HK): Kunlun AI Chip As The Key Catalyst For Revaluatio...
Amid US chip ban uncertainties, Baidu Inc's (Baidu) Kunlun chip is well-positioned to capture emerging AI chip localisation opportunities. Meanwhile, Robotaxi offers significant growth potential, with Baidu emerging as the global leader in driverless commercial ride-hailing. In cloud, Baidu differentiates itself through its full-stack AI capabilities and a resilient, recurring software revenue stream. Upgrade to BUY with a higher target price of HK$135.00 (US$150.00).
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Claire Wang Kelai
- Damon Shen
- Greater China Research Team
- Jieqi Liu
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
- Sunny Chen
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Greater China Daily: Tuesday, September 9, 2025
Top Stories Economics | Trade China’s export momentum softened in August as front-loaded US demand has faded, exposing the vulnerability of shipments to the US market. While the trade diversion supported flows to ASEAN and the EU, overall growth moderated. Imports also weakened amid subdued agricultural demand, despite firmer commodity-related inflows. Product-level data was mixed, with motor vehicles and hi-tech exports showing strength. Looking ahead, the trade outlook remains cautious, with ...
- Greater China Research Team
Greater China Alpha Picks: September Conviction Calls
In August, the HSI and MSCI China Index hit their ytd highs, posting gains of 1.2% mom and 4.2% mom respectively, supported by dovish remarks from Fed Chair J. Powell at Jackson Hole. Looking ahead, we expect some consolidation as most of the positives have been priced in and are biased to SELL. We add Anta, BYDE and CSCEC to our BUY list, while initiating SELL calls on Li Auto and OOIL. We take profit on Innovent, JD Logistics, Lenovo, Sino Biopharm, Tencent and TME.
A117ME ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD. SPONSORED ADR
00285 BYD ELECTRONIC (INTERNATIONAL) CO. LTD.
ORI1 ORIENT OVERSEAS (INTERNATIONAL) LIMITED
601668 CHINA STATE CONSTRUCTION ENGINEERING CORP. LTD. CLASS A
002472 ZHEJIANG SHUANGHUAN DRIVELINE (A)
01810 XIAOMI CORP. CLASS B
09988 ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD.
02161 JBM (HEALTHCARE) LTD
02015 LI AUTO INC
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
China Internet: AI -- Accelerating AI+cloud hyperscaler growth; AI age...
We expect the emergence of AI agents and AI applications to continue fuelling the surge in AI inference demand, driving the acceleration of hyperscaler revenue growth, and we forecast revenue growth reaccelerating in 2H25-2026. The sustained dominance of super-apps in commerce, coupled with the swift rise of cost-efficient AI models, creates a strong catalyst for adoption and future global expansion. We upgrade the internet sector to OVERWEIGHT and are OVERWEIGHT the AI segment.
- Pierre FerraguÊ
A117ME ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD. SPONSORED ADR
ADSK AUTODESK INC.
HPQ MARVELL TECHNOLOGY GROUP LTD.
OKTA HP INC.
CRWD OKTA INC. CLASS A
DELL CROWDSTRIKE HOLDINGS INC. CLASS A
1506075D DELL TECHNOLOGIES INC CLASS C
09988 DELL INTERNATIONAL LLC / EMC
MRVL ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD.
MARVELL TECHNOLOGY INC
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
China Internet: AI -- Accelerating AI+cloud hyperscaler growth; AI age...
We expect the emergence of AI agents and AI applications to continue fuelling the surge in AI inference demand, driving the acceleration of hyperscaler revenue growth, and we forecast revenue growth reaccelerating in 2H25-2026. The sustained dominance of super-apps in commerce, coupled with the swift rise of cost-efficient AI models, creates a strong catalyst for adoption and future global expansion. We upgrade the internet sector to OVERWEIGHT and are OVERWEIGHT the AI segment. WHAT’S NEW Ev...
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
China Internet: Strong top-line growth and margins further hurt in 2H2...
China’s internet companies reported intact 2Q25 top-line with mixed earnings results. The key focuses are on the latest quick commerce war and AI cloud and agent development. In 2Q25, we saw meaningful AI monetisation visibility contributing to incremental top-line growth, and expect this momentum to continue into 2H25. On the profitability front, margins will remain under pressure from heightened investments to fend off the intensifying competition in on-demand delivery. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.
JD JD.COM INC. SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
K3SD BAIDU INC SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
A117ME ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD. SPONSORED ADR
3K1 KINGSOFT CORP. LTD.
00700 TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD.
PDD PINDUODUO INC. SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
03690 MEITUAN CLASS B
00780 TONGCHENG-ELONG HOLDINGS LIMITED
TCOM TRIP.COM GROUP LTD. SPONSORED ADR
BEKE KE HOLDINGS INC. SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
09988 ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD.
09999 NETEASE INC
09618 JD.COM INC. CLASS A
01024 KUAISHOU TECHNOLOGY CLASS B
09888 BAIDU INC
02423 KE HOLDINGS INC.
09961 CTRIP.COM INTERNATIONAL
- Desmond Chong Chee Wai
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
Alibaba Group (9988 HK): 1QFY26: Better-than-expected CMR and cloud re...
Alibaba reported strong 1QFY26 results. Revenue grew 2% yoy to Rmb247.7b, in line with the street’s estimate. Non-GAAP net profit was Rmb33.5b, down 18% yoy, in line with our forecast, with net margin of 14.8%, due to its investment in Taobao Instant Commerce. In the coming quarters, management expects to see: a) solid CMR growth as the company leverages on the Rmb30t addressable market, and b) strong cloud growth fuelled by AIrelated demand. Maintain BUY with a higher target price of HK$170.00 ...
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Claire Wang Kelai
- Colin Lee
- Damon Shen
- Ejann Hiew
- Gigi Cheuk
- Greater China Research Team
- Jieqi Liu
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Kate Luang
- Ken Lee
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
- Ming San Soong
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Sunny Chen
- Tham Mun Hon
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Greater China Daily: Monday, September 1, 2025
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics PMI August's manufacturing PMI edged up slightly to 49.4 (+0.1pt mom), while non-manufacturing PMI improved modestly to 50.3 (+0.2pt mom). However, construction PMI fell to 49.1 (-1.5pt mom), below the expansion threshold for the first time since January. With moderating decline in new orders and new export orders, PMI for large-sized enterprise (50.8, +0.5pt mom) and small-sized enterprise (46.6, +0.2pt mom) both improved. Overall, a mixed bag. Results Alibaba Group...
0939 CHINA CONSTRUCTION BANK CORPORATION CLASS H
00285 BYD ELECTRONIC (INTERNATIONAL) CO. LTD.
RLF LONGFOR GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
600887 INNER MONGOLIA YILI INDUSTRIAL GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
000333 MIDEA GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
601689 NINGBO TUOPU GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
2333 GREAT WALL MOTOR CO. LTD. CLASS H
600019 BAOSHAN IRON & STEEL CO. LTD. CLASS A
1211 BYD COMPANY LIMITED CLASS H
COSCO SHIPPING HOLDINGS CO. LTD. CLASS H
02238 GUANGZHOU AUTOMOBILE GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS H
3933 THE UNITED LABORATORIES INTE
709 GIORDANO INTERNATIONAL LTD
6186 CHINA FEIHE LTD
09988 ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD.
01024 KUAISHOU TECHNOLOGY CLASS B
06690 HAIER SMART HOME CO. LTD. CLASS H
002050 CH ZHEJIANG SANHUA INTELLIGENT CONTROLS CO LTD (002050 CH)
2050 HK ZHEJIANG SANHUA INTELLIGENT CONTROLS CO LTD (2050 HK)
- Jin Yoon
BABA FY1Q26 Results: Continued Market Share Gains in both Cloud and Qu...
What’s new: Alibaba’s reported FY1Q26 results that were below consensus and our expectations. BABA could continue to gain market share in both cloud and quick commerce segments. Non-GAAP EBITA could see further margin pressure in the Sep Quarter partly due to investments in quick commerce. We maintain our PT at USD155. Analysts: Jin Yoon
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Colin Lee
- Damon Shen
- Ejann Hiew
- Jieqi Liu
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Jonathan Koh
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ken Lee
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
- Kitpon Praipaisarnkit
- Krit Tanarattananon
- Ming San Soong
- Thailand Research Team
- Willinoy Sitorus
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Monday, September 1, 2025
GREATER CHINA Results Alibaba Group (9988 HK/BUY/HK$115.70/Target: HK$170.00): 1QFY26: Better-than-expected CMR and cloud revenue growth; encouraging quick commerce outlook. BYD Company (1211 HK/SELL/HK$114.40/Target: HK$90.00): 2Q25: Earnings down over 30% yoy/qoq, missing estimates on margins. Downgrade from BUY to SELL. Cut target price from HK$142.00 to HK$90.00. BYD Electronic (285 HK/BUY/HK$41.18/Target: HK$51.80): 1H25: Margin misses due to product mix shift; growth story remains unchange...
0939 CHINA CONSTRUCTION BANK CORPORATION CLASS H
00285 BYD ELECTRONIC (INTERNATIONAL) CO. LTD.
601668 CHINA STATE CONSTRUCTION ENGINEERING CORP. LTD. CLASS A
601689 NINGBO TUOPU GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
2333 GREAT WALL MOTOR CO. LTD. CLASS H
1211 BYD COMPANY LIMITED CLASS H
002050 CH ZHEJIANG SANHUA INTELLIGENT CONTROLS CO LTD (002050 CH)
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Bible 2Q25 – Ride-sharing & Delivery: Lower Prices, Higher Profits. Wa...
Today, we are publishing the Ride-sharing and delivery section of our 28th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. In the coming weeks we will publish sections on Automotive, Memory, Hyperscale & Cloud, Telecom Equipment, Industrials, PCs, Enterprise IT, Foundry, and Semicap Equipment. Ride-sharing bo...
- Jin Yoon
PDD 2Q25 Results: Profitability to Fluctuate in the Coming Quarters
What’s new: PDD’s reported 2Q25 revs that were largely in-line with consensus but below our expectations. While margins came in better than expected, PDD cautioned that profitability could continue to fluctuate in the coming quarters. The company is also willing to accept lower profits to consistently reinvest in the platform ecosystem in the long run. Despite attractive valuation (11.2x FY26E P/E), top-line face limited upside to current estimates amid intense competition in the domestic market...
- Pierre FerraguÊ
- Jin Yoon
BILI 2Q25 Results: Ads Remain Resilient
What’s new: Bilibili’s reported 2Q25 revs that were in-line consensus and our expectations. While gaming revs could be under pressure in 2H partly due to tougher comps related to San Mou, ads could remain resilient as BILI continues to outgrow the industry. Margins could also improve partly driven by continued cost controls. We up our PT from US$25 to US$27 on better margin outlook. Our updated PT of US$27 implies a 26.4x FY26E P/E. We maintain our BUY rating. Analysts: Jin Yoon
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