Strategy | KTA From 1H26 Strategy Conference In Kuala Lumpur We conducted a marketing trip to Kuala Lumpur and met with more than 20 investors to present our 1H26 strategy. Among our four key themes, the strongest interest centred on the copper-related narrative, with many investors also asking if this is the right time to re-enter the banking and consumer sectors. Highlights • Interest largely centred on the copper-related theme. • Attractive risk-reward in selected large caps, with dividend y...
Strategy | KTA From 1H26 Strategy Conference In Kuala Lumpur We conducted a marketing trip to Kuala Lumpur and met with more than 20 investors to present our 1H26 strategy. Among our four key themes, the strongest interest centred on the copper-related narrative, with many investors also asking if this is the right time to re-enter the banking and consumer sectors. Technical Analysis Sumber Alfaria Trijaya | AMRT IJ Trading Buy Range: We have a technical Buy at Rp1,920, and take profit at Rp2,0...
Strategy | Alpha Picks: December Bias Positive, Adding BBCA, DEWA, TLKM The JCI rebounded strongly in November, supported by improved liquidity, risk-on sentiment, and US$730m foreign inflows. Our portfolio lagged (+0.8% vs JCI’s +4.0%) due to weakness in AADI, JPFA, MDKA, and ADRO. While December historically delivers positive returns, its reliability now hinges more on liquidity and global risk appetite. We turn selective, removing AADI and ADRO due to coal-duty uncertainty, and adding BBCA, T...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: December Conviction Calls Market consolidation slowed in November as expectations of a 25bp Fed cut improved sentiment. The HSI and MSCI China fell 0.2% and 2.4% mom amid weak data and limited catalysts. While the upcoming Economic Work Conference may offer a catalyst to end this phase, we remain cautious, preferring defensives and oversold names. We add BeOne Medicines, HKEX, NetEase and Plover Bay to BUY, take profit on AIA, and cut losses on Jacobson,...
Strategy | Alpha Picks: December Bias Positive, Adding BBCA, DEWA, TLKM The JCI rebounded strongly in November, supported by improved liquidity, risk-on sentiment, and US$730m foreign inflows. Our portfolio lagged (+0.8% vs JCI’s +4.0%) due to weakness in AADI, JPFA, MDKA, and ADRO. While December historically delivers positive returns, its reliability now hinges more on liquidity and global risk appetite. We turn selective, removing AADI and ADRO due to coal-duty uncertainty, and adding BBCA, T...
Strategy | A Broader Market Narrative The JCI enters 2026 with improving liquidity, firmer fiscal execution and gradually improving earnings, supporting our 9,200 index target on a 9% EPS growth. Large-cap underperformance in 2025 was driven by positioning, but rotation should broaden as macro conditions stabilise. Our 2026 strategy balances structural growers (ASSA, CMRY, HEAL, JPFA), dollar-earning commodity names (ARCI, BRMS, DEWA, MDKA) and quality defensives such as BBCA and TLKM. Key risks...
Greater China Sector Update | Consumer We met investors in Thailand and Malaysia during our marketing trip from 24-28 Nov 25. Overall investor interest in the China consumer sector is improving. The most frequently discussed segments and names include Miniso, Shenzhou, Anta, consumer staples (including dairy, beer and baijiu), as well as some new consumption names such as Pop Mart (non-rated) and Laopu Gold (non-rated). Our preferred stocks include: Galaxy, Midea, Miniso, Shenzhou and Sands ...
Economics | Indonesia's Trade Surplus Contracts On Surging Imports Indonesia's trade surplus narrowed to $2.39b in Oct 25 as a surge in imports, driven by strong domestic demand and government spending, outpaced a modest export decline. While underlying cumulative trends remain positive, the surplus is expected to shrink further through 2025 due to a slowing global economy and robust import growth. Looking ahead, the 2026 outlook faces headwinds from protectionist policies targeting key exports ...
Highlights • Stock rotations to broaden in 2026 as macroeconomic environment and liquidity improve, easing the flow-driven divergence seen in 2024-25. • Balanced portfolio of defensives, flow proxies, compelling growth and US dollar earners supports our 2026 year-end JCI target of 9,200. Analysis • Non-LQ45 outperformance defines 2025. The LQ45 Index has underperformed the JCI by 16% ytd, extending the lag that began in 2024 (-12% vs JCI) amid muted big bank earnings. The gap has been driven mo...
Company Update | Japfa Comfeed Indonesia (JPFA IJ/BUY/Rp2,630/Target: Rp3,200) We expect JPFA’s strong 3Q25 momentum to continue into 4Q25, along with seasonal demand toward year-end, expanded MBG rollout, and sustained live-bird prices. A healthier industry outlook is also becoming more apparent, driven by MBG-led demand, tighter supply, and a more supportive regulatory backdrop. JPFA is accelerating its downstream expansion, including probiotic carcass products that should offer higher profita...
Economics | Food Price Slowdown Moderates Indonesian Inflation In Nov 25 Indonesia’s headline inflation moderated to 2.72% yoy in Nov 25, easing from 2.86% in Oct 25, primarily due to slowing food and gold prices. Core inflation remained stable at 2.36% yoy, supported more by global gold prices than robust domestic demand. With price pressures contained and a softer US dollar outlook, we project a final 25bp Bank Indonesia rate cut in Dec 25, bringing the benchmark to 4.50% to provide measured e...
Greater China Sector Update | China Property Demand stayed weak in Nov 25, with new-home sales in 28 cities down 42% yoy and second hand home prices in most cities falling. Land auctions in Shanghai and Hangzhou cooled, with most plots near reserve prices. We maintain UNDERWEIGHT on China property, with CR Land as our top pick for its consistent earnings outperformance. Sector Update | Macau Gaming Macau’s Nov 25 GGR reached MOP 21.1b, down 12% mom but up 14% yoy, and recovering to 92% o...
In our latest Asia Monthly, we discuss the performance of major Asian credit indices and review UST curve movements in November 2025. We also provide a recap of major news and macroeconomic releases, including those from the US, China, India, Indonesia and Japan. In addition, we summarise the top/bottom performers, recent USD bond issuances and rating actions in Asian corporate credit, as well as a list of our recent research. The Asia Monthly publication serves to keep investors updated on ...
Sector Update | Consumer Our visit to an MBG central kitchen indicates improving on-ground operations supported by clearer funding mechanics. MBG budget realisation began to accelerate in 3Q25, with early signs of demand visible across dairy and poultry names and in higher CPI. Danantara also plans to allocate Rp20t to fund broiler and layer farms to support supply sufficiency. With MBG spending set to surge to Rp330t (~9% of the 2026 budget), execution will become the key risk to monitor. Top p...
Sector Update | Consumer Our visit to an MBG central kitchen indicates improving on-ground operations supported by clearer funding mechanics. MBG budget realisation began to accelerate in 3Q25, with early signs of demand visible across dairy and poultry names and in higher CPI. Danantara also plans to allocate Rp20t to fund broiler and layer farms to support supply sufficiency. With MBG spending set to surge to Rp330t (~9% of the 2026 budget), execution will become the key risk to monitor. Top p...
Greater China Company Results | Kingsoft Corp (3888 HK/BUY/HK$30.72/Target: HK$44.00) Kingsoft’s 3Q25 results missed expectations. Revenue dropped 17% yoy to Rmb2.4b, 6% below consensus estimate. Gross margin shrank 4ppt yoy to 80.4%, in line with consensus expectation. Operating profit plunged 76% yoy to Rmb277m, while operating margin fell 28ppt yoy to 11%, dampened by subdued revenue growth. Net profit declined 49% yoy to Rmb213m, with net margin shrinking 5ppt yoy to 8.8%. Maintain BUY w...
Strategy | Alpha Picks: Another Outperformance In October In Oct 25, our portfolio outperformed the JCI by 11.1%. All of our stock picks saw positive gains, with ASSA seeing the most at +26.8%. Events to look out are the MSCI rebalancing announcement on 5 November, and BI’s rate decision on 19 Nov 25. We maintain exposure to gold and US dollar earners, and add JPFA for its solid 2H25 growth. Our Alpha Picks: AADI, ASSA, ADRO, ARCI ENRG, JPFA and MDKA. Highlights • Our stock portfolio outperfo...
Greater China Sector Update | Macau Gaming Macau’s Oct 25 GGR was MOP$24.1b, increasing 32% mom and 16% yoy, and recovering to 91% of 2019’s level (vs a recovery of 83% in Sep 25). Oct 25’s GGR number beat market consensus by 4%, and set another post-COVID-19 record. For 10M25, GGR climbed to MOP$205.4b, up 8% yoy, and recovered to 83% of 2019’s level. Maintain OVERWEIGHT; Galaxy remains our top pick. Company Results | China Merchants Bank (3968 HK/HOLD/HK$48.64/Target: HK$51.00) CMB rep...
Strategy | Alpha Picks: Another Outperformance In October In Oct 25, our portfolio outperformed the JCI by 11.1%. All of our stock picks saw positive gains, with ASSA seeing the most at +26.8%. Events to look out are the MSCI rebalancing announcement on 5 November, and BI’s rate decision on 19 Nov 25. We maintain exposure to gold and US dollar earners, and add JPFA for its solid 2H25 growth. Our Alpha Picks: AADI, ASSA, ADRO, ARCI ENRG, JPFA and MDKA. Company Results | GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (G...
In our latest Asia Monthly, we discuss the performance of major Asian credit indices and review UST curve movements in October 2025. We also provide a recap of major news and macroeconomic releases, including those from the US, China, India, Indonesia and Japan. In addition, we summarise the top/bottom performers, recent USD bond issuances and rating actions in Asian corporate credit, as well as a list of our recent research. The Asia Monthly publication serves to keep investors updated on d...
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