Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: February Conviction Calls Chinese equities recovered in January, with the HSI and MSCI China rising 6.9% and 5.0% mom respectively. Given the supportive macro policy environment, we maintain a constructive view on the markets despite the risk of further volatility in February. Accordingly, we are adding Alibaba, Ganfeng Lithium, and Minth to our BUY list, and Meituan to our SELL list. Indonesia Strategy | Alpha Picks: From MSCI Shock To Policy-Driven Rebala...
Sector Update | Consumer Most consumer stocks are trading at undemanding valuations, offering a tactical rotation opportunity, which are further supported by potential pension and insurance inflows. Seasonal Lebaran and Chinese New Year demand, normalising input costs, improving purchasing power, and an accommodative fiscal stance provide near-term catalysts. We expect 4Q25 results to improve qoq, with full-year performance broadly in line. Top picks are CMRY, MYOR, and AMRT. Highlights • Most ...
Greater China Sector Update | China Property CRIC data show that the top 100 developers’ contracted sales fell 24.7% yoy in Jan 26, while new-home sales in 28 major cities declined 36% yoy. Second-hand transactions in three Tier 1 cities rose 1% yoy. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT but deepening industry downturn leads to rising possibility of policy support, supporting selective exposure. CR Land remains our top pick, with P/B at 1SD below the five-year mean, and PE and yield near the five-year average....
Economics | Indonesia Headline Inflation Rises On Low-base Effect, Core Inflation Remains Stable Indonesia's headline inflation rose to 3.55% yoy in Jan 26, primarily driven by temporary base effects from last year's low electricity tariffs and high global gold prices. However, core inflation remained stable at 2.45%, and prices fell mom due to a strong food harvest. This indicates underlying demand pressures are still contained. Consequently, Bank Indonesia is expected to maintain its benchmark...
In our latest Asia Monthly, we discuss the performance of major Asian credit indices and review UST curve movements in January 2026. We also provide a recap of major news and macroeconomic releases, including those from the US, China, India, Indonesia and Japan. In addition, we summarise the top/bottom performers, recent USD bond issuances and rating actions in Asian corporate credit, as well as a list of our recent research. The Asia Monthly publication serves to keep investors updated on ...
In our inaugural Asia Monthly for 2026, we share our regional credit outlook for the year, with a focus on China, Macau, India and Indonesia. We also provide a review of 2025, in which we discuss the performance of major Asian credit indices and review UST curve movements for the year. In addition, we provide a recap of major news and macroeconomic releases in December 2025, summarise the Top/Bottom performers, recent USD bond issuances and rating actions in Asian corporate credit, as well a...
Strategy | Liquidity Tailwinds And Flow Momentum Drive JCI Upside Equity markets are supported by renewed foreign inflows, rising commodity prices, and improving liquidity. Net equity inflows turned positive at US$169.6m over the past one month, while key commodities posted strong gains. Narrowing yield spreads (10-year bond yield minus LQ45 dividend yield) and improving money supply growth reinforce a preference for equity over bonds. Greater intervention by Bank Indonesia to support the rupiah...
Greater China Sector Update | China Property Demand remained under pressure in Jan 26, with both new-home sales and secondary-home transactions continuing to post sharp yoy declines. Land market activity weakened notably toward the end of 2025, while capital and demand were further concentrated in a small number of strong Tier 1-2 cities, underscoring persistent divergence across regions amid still-soft market sentiment. We remain UNDERWEIGHT on China’s property sector, and expect high polic...
Strategy | Liquidity Tailwinds And Flow Momentum Drive JCI Upside Equity markets are supported by renewed foreign inflows, rising commodity prices, and improving liquidity. Net equity inflows turned positive at US$169.6m over the past one month, while key commodities posted strong gains. Narrowing yield spreads (10-year bond yield minus LQ45 dividend yield) and improving money supply growth reinforce a preference for equity over bonds. Greater intervention by Bank Indonesia to support the rupiah...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: January Conviction Calls Chinese equities remained in consolidation through December, with the HSI and MSCI China down 0.9% mom and 1.5% mom, respectively, despite last week’s window dressing narrowing losses. Policy signals from the Economic Work Conference broadly met expectations. Looking ahead, we are constructive on 1Q26, supported by a favourable global liquidity cycle and potential macro supportive measures in China. We retain most of our December pic...
Strategy | Alpha Picks: Strong Performance In December The JCI closed strong at the end of Dec 25 (+1.6% mom, +22.1% yoy). Our portfolio outperformed the JCI by 17.7% mom, driven by ENRG, DEWA, ARCI, JPFA, and ASSA, while MDKA was flat and TLKM and BBCA underperformed. We maintain our portfolio focus on US dollar-linked earnings and resilient bottom-up picks. We drop DEWA as it has reached our target price, and add HRUM and NCKL. Highlights • The JCI closed strong at the end of Dec 25 (+1.6% mo...
Economics | Indonesia Economy 2026: The Path To Igniting "Animal Spirits" Our baseline 2026 outlook forecasts a moderate 5.3% GDP growth and a mildly weaker rupiah (~Rp 16,900/USD). However, a credible alternative “animal spirits” scenario exists. This could be triggered by FDI surges into minerals, aggressive reforms, foreign borrowing and a supportive global backdrop of Fed easing, and could spark a positive feedback loop, strengthening the rupiah to Rp15,600-15,800. This optimistic path, whil...
Greater China Sector Update | IT Hardware We see an acceleration in China’s AI development progress in 2026, with NVIDIA successfully obtaining the US government’s approval on H200 sales to China, which will provide a major boost to the Chinese the AI application users. We also believe that the shipment volume of domestic AI chips will receive minimal impact, with foreign chips acting as a “demand gap filler” while the establishment of a capable local supply chain remains the highest priorit...
Strategy | KTA From 1H26 Strategy Conference In Kuala Lumpur We conducted a marketing trip to Kuala Lumpur and met with more than 20 investors to present our 1H26 strategy. Among our four key themes, the strongest interest centred on the copper-related narrative, with many investors also asking if this is the right time to re-enter the banking and consumer sectors. Highlights • Interest largely centred on the copper-related theme. • Attractive risk-reward in selected large caps, with dividend y...
Strategy | KTA From 1H26 Strategy Conference In Kuala Lumpur We conducted a marketing trip to Kuala Lumpur and met with more than 20 investors to present our 1H26 strategy. Among our four key themes, the strongest interest centred on the copper-related narrative, with many investors also asking if this is the right time to re-enter the banking and consumer sectors. Technical Analysis Sumber Alfaria Trijaya | AMRT IJ Trading Buy Range: We have a technical Buy at Rp1,920, and take profit at Rp2,0...
Strategy | Alpha Picks: December Bias Positive, Adding BBCA, DEWA, TLKM The JCI rebounded strongly in November, supported by improved liquidity, risk-on sentiment, and US$730m foreign inflows. Our portfolio lagged (+0.8% vs JCI’s +4.0%) due to weakness in AADI, JPFA, MDKA, and ADRO. While December historically delivers positive returns, its reliability now hinges more on liquidity and global risk appetite. We turn selective, removing AADI and ADRO due to coal-duty uncertainty, and adding BBCA, T...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: December Conviction Calls Market consolidation slowed in November as expectations of a 25bp Fed cut improved sentiment. The HSI and MSCI China fell 0.2% and 2.4% mom amid weak data and limited catalysts. While the upcoming Economic Work Conference may offer a catalyst to end this phase, we remain cautious, preferring defensives and oversold names. We add BeOne Medicines, HKEX, NetEase and Plover Bay to BUY, take profit on AIA, and cut losses on Jacobson,...
Strategy | Alpha Picks: December Bias Positive, Adding BBCA, DEWA, TLKM The JCI rebounded strongly in November, supported by improved liquidity, risk-on sentiment, and US$730m foreign inflows. Our portfolio lagged (+0.8% vs JCI’s +4.0%) due to weakness in AADI, JPFA, MDKA, and ADRO. While December historically delivers positive returns, its reliability now hinges more on liquidity and global risk appetite. We turn selective, removing AADI and ADRO due to coal-duty uncertainty, and adding BBCA, T...
Strategy | A Broader Market Narrative The JCI enters 2026 with improving liquidity, firmer fiscal execution and gradually improving earnings, supporting our 9,200 index target on a 9% EPS growth. Large-cap underperformance in 2025 was driven by positioning, but rotation should broaden as macro conditions stabilise. Our 2026 strategy balances structural growers (ASSA, CMRY, HEAL, JPFA), dollar-earning commodity names (ARCI, BRMS, DEWA, MDKA) and quality defensives such as BBCA and TLKM. Key risks...
Greater China Sector Update | Consumer We met investors in Thailand and Malaysia during our marketing trip from 24-28 Nov 25. Overall investor interest in the China consumer sector is improving. The most frequently discussed segments and names include Miniso, Shenzhou, Anta, consumer staples (including dairy, beer and baijiu), as well as some new consumption names such as Pop Mart (non-rated) and Laopu Gold (non-rated). Our preferred stocks include: Galaxy, Midea, Miniso, Shenzhou and Sands ...
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