HEADLINES: • PKO BP: strong 1Q24, with 9% beat, but big part due to lower quarterly tax charge POSITIVE • Kruk: 1Q24 results in line with earlier communication; strong trend continues, but digested by the market already NEUTRAL • Bank Handlowy: books neutral 1Q24, questions on future capital management NEUTRAL • NLB Group: guidance upgrade spices up vanilla 1Q24 bottom-line beat POSITIVE • Pegasus Airlines: 1Q24 in line, guidance for mild margin compression and 10-12% ASK growth maintained NEUTR...
EME Equity Market – April 2024 Market performance – green across all geographies, with Turkey outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index was up 5.3% mom in EUR terms and 4.2% mom in USD in April; while the Turkish ISE30 saw the strongest performance, adding 11.6% mom; followed by the Hungarian BUX (+5.0% mom); the Czech PX (+2.8% mom); the Greek ASE (+1.8% mom), the Polish WIG20 (+1.2% mom) and the Romanian BET (+0.1% mom) (all in EUR terms).
HEADLINES: • Lamda: 4Q23 results - significant step-up in Ellinikon revenues, revaluation gain on existing malls • Electrica: proposed changes to the regulatory framework • Bank Pekao: AGM chooses new Supervisory Board members, approves PLN 19.2 DPS • 11 bit studios: release date of INDIKA moved to 2 May • Nuclearelectrica: shareholders abstain from voting on the items from yesterday’s GMS • EMEA airlines: 1Q24 traffic - a good start to the year • Budimex: 1Q24E flat yoy - profitability improvem...
While the share prices of the European airlines have been hit in recent days, by the heightened geopolitical tensions, all the European carriers in our coverage universe have seen a good start to the year in terms of traffic. Wizz Air has flown roughly double its 1Q19 ASK, on the back of the significant investments into its network and fleet that continued even during the pandemic. To put this into context, Ryanair has flown roughly 20% more pax in calendar 1Q24 compared to 1Q19. Pegasus Airline...
• Pegasus Airlines: 1Q24 traffic - international ASK up 85% vs. 1Q19 • 11 bit studios: Frostpunk 2 Beta now available for seven days, first gameplay deep dive trailer released • VIGO Photonics: 1Q24 sales down 16% yoy to PLN 15.8m • Grupa Pracuj: new online job ads number down 19% yoy in March 2024 • Auto Partner: earnings call takeaways - solid FY24E outlook maintained, despite disappointing March sales • CCC: key takeaways from the recent site visit • Kazatomprom: awarded a licence for Rare Ea...
EME Equity Market – March 2024 Market performance – mixed performances in March, with the Romanian BET outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 0.3% mom in EUR terms and 0.4% mom in USD in March. The Romanian BET reported the strongest performance, adding 7.1% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Czech PX and the Polish WIG20 (+4.1% and 1.0% mom, in EUR terms, respectively). Greece saw a relatively muted performance (-0.2% mom in EUR terms), while Hungary (-1.1% mom in EUR terms) and Tür...
HEADLINES: • Pegasus Airlines: 4Q23 – decent end to another very good year NEUTRAL • Ford Otosan: strong set of results in 4Q23 POSITIVE • ONE United Properties: FY23 – ramping up, with almost 1k units sold in 2023 • Alkaloid: 4Q23 – reaping the benefits of recent investments • Alkaloid: rating and price target changes • European oil and gas monthly: February 2024 – return of the crack • Transgaz: takeaways from the 4Q23 earnings call POSITIVE • Auto Partner: February sales growth accelerates...
Growing its profitable international business while keeping costs under control, 2023 was another very good year for Pegasus. Although the fares started to normalise in 2023, from the extremely high levels reached in 2022, the low unit costs helped Pegasus maintain its EBITDA margin north of 30% for the second year running. A crucial contributor is the international segment, in which Pegasus flew 50% higher capacity in 2023 vs. 2019. This is an outstanding result, considering the broader context...
HEADLINES: • OMV: Chemical Brothers (stays BUY) • Pegasus Airlines: 4Q23 – decent end to another stellar year NEUTRAL • Tupras: FY23 results, using inflation accounting POSITIVE • AROBS Transilvania Software: FY23 results – awaiting the calming of IT spending headwinds NEUTRAL • Sipchem: 4Q23 interim results NEGATIVE • Telecom Egypt: key takeaways from the 4Q23 earnings call NEUTRAL • Tofas: proposes distribution of a DPS of TRY 20 NEUTRAL • 11 bit studios: strong player reviews of The Thaumatur...
HEADLINES: • EMEA airlines: 2023 traffic; what's next, after a stellar year? • CCC: 4Q prelims short of guidance, due to major sell-down at Modivo; margins back to pre COVID-19 in core business NEGATIVE • Turkey macro: inflation report presents a solid, relatively hawkish, framework for disinflation • Czech Republic macro: CNB steps up the easing cycle • Fondul Proprietatea: Ministry of Finance might oppose sale of stake in Engie and the buyback programme NEGATIVE • Verbund: releases warning...
Globally, aviation capacity is likely to reach pre-pandemic levels only this year, and IATA estimates the industry to have reached an operating profit margin of only 3% in 2023E. This, however, obscures the two-speed recovery, with 2023 being a bumper year for many airlines globally. Ryanair, Aegean Airlines, Turkish Airlines, Pegasus Airlines, Air Arabia, Jazeera, Cathay Pacific and Indigo – to name a few – have been enjoying record-high results for the past 12-18M, as they were able to ramp up...
HEADLINES: • Cimsa: announces the completion of the 10.1% SBS shares transfer POSITIVE • InPost: PPF executes only part of the option, at this stage NEUTRAL • Inter Cars: 2024E revenue growth target at 13-15% yoy NEUTRAL • Inter Cars: November sales growth decelerated to a limited 10% yoy NEGATIVE • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (4-10 December) • Hidroelectrica: signs agreement to acquire assets and personnel from manufacturer of hydro equipment NEUTRAL • WOOD's Winter Wonderland EME Con...
EME Equity Market – November 2023 Market performance – Greeks in the lead, in a month with only green across the region. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 5.6% mom in EUR terms and 8.7% mom in USD in November. The Greek ASE Index was the top performer in our region (+6.9% mom), followed by the Polish WIG20 (+5.5% mom) and the Hungarian BUX (+4.0% mom). The Czech PX Index saw the most muted performance, advancing 2.8% mom.
HEADLINES: • Kruk: 3Q23 - books another strong quarter • PKO BP: solid 3Q23, announces another attempt to pay 2022 DPS, books 25%+ headline ROE • CEZ: 3Q23 a solid beat; adjusted net profit guidance unchanged, at CZK 33-37bn POSITIVE • InPost: 3Q23 beat on stronger international operations; breakeven in UK; strong start to 4Q POSITIVE • Pegasus Airlines: 3Q23 - another strong summer, guidance maintained NEUTRAL • Cyfrowy Polsat: 3Q23 results review - soft numbers, in line with expectations NEU...
EME Equity Market – August 2023 Market performance – Turkey the top performer in August, once again. The MSCI EM Europe Index lost 0.7% mom in EUR terms and 2.2% mom in USD in August. Turkey, yet again, outperformed its peers, with the ISE30 gaining 9.4% mom in EUR terms. The Hungarian BUX index saw a solid performance in August, adding 6.1% mom in EUR terms, while the Romanian BET had a lacklustre month, barely making any gains (0.1% mom in EUR terms). Elsewhere, the index performances were neg...
Passenger traffic gained some momentum in 3Q, following the earthquakes, elections and TL appreciation that tempered the momentum in 1H23: Following a deceleration in traffic during 1Q and 2Q, the latest traffic trends in Turkey have seen some improvement in momentum. Also, the government’s raise of price cap on domestic ticket prices from TL1150 to TL1650 and putting an additional price increase allowance for the high load factors (TL2500 for >85% load factors) could support the profitability i...
HEADLINES: • AROBS Transilvania Software: rolling up IT development in Romania (BUY - initiation of coverage) • Elbit Systems: 2Q23 results - top-down beat, as revenue growth accelerates POSITIVE • Transelectrica: 2Q23 results broadly in line with expectations NEUTRAL • Pegasus Airlines: 2Q23 call takeaways NEUTRAL • Georgia Capital: NAV up 8% qoq, deleveraging continues apace NEUTRAL • Hidroelectrica: jump in volumes to lift profit in 2Q23E (due out today, after the close) • PZU: 2Q23E resu...
HEADLINES: • Elm: digital enabler (HOLD - initiation of coverage) • Turk Telekom: 2Q23 results POSITIVE • Pegasus Airlines: 2Q23 - high RASK and costs under control drive stellar profitability POSITIVE • Telecom Egypt: 2Q23 results review - EBITDA up 30% yoy, 7% above the consensus NEUTRAL • Telecom Egypt: key takeaways from the 2Q23 earnings call NEUTRAL • DIGI Communications: key takeaways from the 2Q23 earnings call NEUTRAL • CEZ: IndMin says "no reason for quick action" on CEZ split NEUTRAL...
EME Equity Market – July 2023 Market performance – gains keep on rolling in all geographies, with special mention of Turkey’s stellar performance. The MSCI EM Europe Index gained 8.6% mom in EUR terms and 9.5% mom in USD in July. Turkey clearly outperformed its peers, gaining 18.6% mom in EUR terms. Most other geographies performed more or less at similar levels, with the Polish WIG20 in the upper part of the range, advancing 7.3% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Romanian BET and Czech PX indic...
HEADLINES: • Polish utilities: receive offers for coal assets POSITIVE • OMV/Borouge: ADNOC and OMV may combine their petrochemicals businesses NEUTRAL • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (10-16 July) • Pegasus Airlines: increases existing order with Airbus by 36 A321neos POSITIVE • Grupa Pracuj: new job ads on Pracuj.pl down 24% yoy in 1H23 NEGATIVE • Erste Bank: 2Q23E results preview (due on 31 July) • Bank Pekao: 2Q23E results preview (due on 3 August) • ING BSK: 2Q23E results preview (...
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