bpost/Surprisingly positive Last Mile; upgrade coming?/HOLD

We keep our HOLD rating, but we increase our target price from €1.55 to €1.75. bpost reported a strong 1Q25 with a 22% beat vs company compiled consensus. Whereas BeNe Last Mile disappointed in the previous quarter, it now surprised strongly on the upside despite the impact from the strikes. bpost does not see an impact from the tariff wars and it might be less of an issue than initially expected. Radial US is still in a tough spot but with an improving pipeline while Staci seemed on track, alth...

ODDO BHF SECURITIES Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS – 05/09/2025

ODDO BHF SECURITIES Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS – 09/05/2025

Benelux Morning Notes

Aedifica, Cofinimmo: Aedifica CMD feedback bpost: 1Q25 results beat strongly, outlook surprises Brunel: 1Q25 results disappoint on perm, weak revenue Cofinimmo, Aedifica: Negative reaction on Aedifica offer Eurocommercial Properties: Good with no surprise Montea: Good results, guidance reconfirmed Proximus: Small 1Q beat, guidance reiterated, soft commercial performance Sif Group: The jury is still out Talabat: Preview 1Q25 Universal Music Group: Peer Warner Music slowdown in streaming and prof...

Morning Notes : AED BB, BPOST BB, COFB BB, MONT BB, ONTEX BB, PROX BB,...

: AED BB, BPOST BB, COFB BB, MONT BB, ONTEX BB, PROX BB, UCB BB, VGP BB, AUTL US, ECMPA NA

Bpost : Bobbing around the bottom

bpost Facing challenges on multiple fronts

Running up to the publication of the 1Q25 results on Friday, we have revised our estimates to the downside. For FY25, we currently expect the adj. EBIT to decrease by 32% to € 153m, or the low-end of the guided € 150-180m range despite an additional 7 months of Staci consolidation. Our estimates mainly reflect additional headwinds from the 2-week strikes, as well as some uncertainty related to the US tariff situation. Incorporating our new estimates into our model, we lower our TP from € 2.6 to ...

Morning Notes : AEDb BB, BPOST BB, GBLB BB, PNL NA

: AEDb BB, BPOST BB, GBLB BB, PNL NA

bpost/A painful last mile/HOLD

We keep our HOLD but again lower our TP, from €2.10 to €1.60, a reflection of our further cut in estimates and ongoing downside risk on estimates and outlook due to strikes and global trade wars. Despite a beat on 4Q24, the outlook for FY25 is well below expectations. The dividend over FY24 was cancelled due to an impairment on Radial. The outlook for BeNe Last Mile was disappointing which, despite the already built-in loss of Press volumes, still missed significantly even the most cautious esti...

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS – 02/28/2025

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS – 28/02/2025

Benelux Morning Notes

Ackermans & van Haaren: Record result from core segment, in line with estimate. Bekaert: In-line 2024, 2025F guidance suggests weak 1H25 momentum. Belgian telecoms: Management/liquidity crisis at DIGI Belgium. bpost: 4Q24 beats but no dividend over FY24, FY25 outlook well below. Elia: Preview FY24, capex and financing in focus. Fugro: After a nice beat, moving into FY25 dynamics. Kendrion: No recovery signals. Proximus: Neutral 4Q24, 2025 guidance. Recticel: UK Deputy PM calls fo...

Bpost : Good quarter, disappointing FY25 outlook

Morning Notes : ACKB BB, BEKB BB, BPOST BB, FUR NA, PROX BB, SOF BB, W...

: ACKB BB, BEKB BB, BPOST BB, FUR NA, PROX BB, SOF BB, WHATS BB, SHUR BB, DEME BB, EXO NA

bpost/Complex turnaround but attractive for the brave/HOLD

We keep our HOLD rating but lower our target price from €3.50 to €2.10 reflecting our underlying lowered estimates (ex Staci) and lack of medium-term value creation from Staci due to the high price paid and softer performance. The weak trading and competitive pressures at Radial US, negative impact from the lost Press volumes and weakened macro picture in Belgium all have a negative impact on our estimates of underlying 38% for FY25F and 34% for FY26F while they remain more-or-less unchanged inc...

Bpost : A very busy quarter (despite being relatively small)

>New reporting structure and integration of Staci - Bpost continues to experience pressures from all the volatility at the company as well as weakish end-market (mainly North America). Group operating income (i.c. revenue) for the quarter came in at € 1,025m, +4.7% yoy and -2% vs ccs and AAOBe. Adjusted EBIT came in at € 10m, in line with css. Bpost’s results were mainly driven by the new International 3PL division which now includes Staci. Pressure remains from the c...

Benelux Morning Notes

Aperam: 3Q24 results solid, reassuring 4Q24 guidance. bpost: 3Q24 results and FY24 outlook in line. Eurocommercial Properties: Solid results, guidance confirmed at the top of the range. Euronext: A €300m buyback is next. IMCD: In line 3Q24. SBM Offshore: Prosperity taken out. Sif Group: Line 2 now also reporting for duty

Morning Notes : BPOST BB, ENX FP, GBLB BB, VGP BB, XIOR BB, IMCD NA

: BPOST BB, ENX FP, GBLB BB, VGP BB, XIOR BB, IMCD NA

Morning Notes : AED BB, ASM NA, BPOST BB, COFB BB, MELE BB, WKL NA, NX...

: AED BB, ASM NA, BPOST BB, COFB BB, MELE BB, WKL NA, NXFIL NA

bpost Staci, a make or break story

Running up the 3Q24 results on November 8th, we have adjusted our estimates and incorporated the Staci acquisition in our model. We now estimate the Adj. EBIT for FY24 to come in at the low end of the guided range, as we expect 3Q24 to be a softer quarter than usual driven by the impact of the press concession and though environment in the US. Looking at 2025, we expect some of these headwinds to continue. Additionally, the high transaction multiple that was paid for Staci will significantly inc...