reports
- Marc Zwartsenburg
- CEFA
bpost/2026 is a transition year/HOLD
We keep our HOLD rating and €1.95 TP. This reflects lowered earnings estimates but also lower capex guidance and rolling forward our DCF. Despite that the FY25 results were more or less in line. We find them underlying weaker than expected due to weaker mail volumes and softer parcel volume trend while also Staci Americas had an IT issue (solved). Our new estimates are at the low end of the guidance for FY26F, and we are also still well below (c.20%) the guidance for FY27F. We do believe bpost w...
FP TOTAL SE
EDEN EDENRED SA
EQNR EQUINOR ASA
SESGL SES SA FDR (CLASS A)
GALP GALP ENERGIA SGPS SA CLASS B
PBB DEUTSCHE PFANDBRIEFBANK AG
LXS LANXESS AG
ENI ENI S.P.A.
COTN COMET HOLDING AG
REP REPSOL SA
SAVE SAVENCIA SA
SOI SOITEC SA
ATS AT & S AUSTRIA TECHNOLOGIE & SYSTEMTECHNIK AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
SLIGR SLIGRO FOOD GROUP N.V.
AMG AMG ADVANCED METALLURGICAL GROUP N.V.
SAX STROEER SE & CO. KGAA
BPOST BPOST SA
MELE MELEXIS NV
TIT TELECOM ITALIA S.P.A.
RENE REDES ENERGETICAS NACIONAIS SA
SFSN SFS GROUP AG
MOB MOBILEZONE HOLDING AG
FNTN FREENET AG
IDR INDRA SISTEMAS S.A. CLASS A
SAE SHOP APOTHEKE EUROPE NV
BP. BP P.L.C.
DUE DURR AG
REY REPLY S.P.A.
VOS VOSSLOH AG
BESI BE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRIES N.V.
WAVE WAVESTONE SA
GRP GREENCOAT RENEWABLES
AG1 AUTO1 GROUP
NA9 NAGARRO
DSY DASSAULT SYSTEMES SA
ECMPA EUROCOMMERCIAL PROPERTIES NV
FUR FUGRO NV
OVH OVH GROUPE
SHEL SHELL PLC
FLE PEGASUS ENTREPRENEURIAL ACQUISITION CO EURO BV
ARM ARM HOLDINGS PLC
R3NK RENK GROUP AG
EXENS EXOSENS
4X0 STEYR MOTORS AG
ALHG LOUIS HACHETTE GROUP
FP TOTAL SE
EDEN EDENRED SA
EQNR EQUINOR ASA
SESGL SES SA FDR (CLASS A)
GALP GALP ENERGIA SGPS SA CLASS B
PBB DEUTSCHE PFANDBRIEFBANK AG
LXS LANXESS AG
ENI ENI S.P.A.
COTN COMET HOLDING AG
REP REPSOL SA
SAVE SAVENCIA SA
SOI SOITEC SA
ATS AT & S AUSTRIA TECHNOLOGIE & SYSTEMTECHNIK AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
SLIGR SLIGRO FOOD GROUP N.V.
AMG AMG ADVANCED METALLURGICAL GROUP N.V.
SAX STROEER SE & CO. KGAA
BPOST BPOST SA
MELE MELEXIS NV
TIT TELECOM ITALIA S.P.A.
SFSN SFS GROUP AG
MOB MOBILEZONE HOLDING AG
FNTN FREENET AG
IDR INDRA SISTEMAS S.A. CLASS A
SAE SHOP APOTHEKE EUROPE NV
BP. BP P.L.C.
DUE DURR AG
REY REPLY S.P.A.
VOS VOSSLOH AG
BESI BE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRIES N.V.
WAVE WAVESTONE SA
GRP GREENCOAT RENEWABLES
AG1 AUTO1 GROUP
NA9 NAGARRO
DSY DASSAULT SYSTEMES SA
ECMPA EUROCOMMERCIAL PROPERTIES NV
FUR FUGRO NV
OVH OVH GROUPE
SHEL SHELL PLC
FLE PEGASUS ENTREPRENEURIAL ACQUISITION CO EURO BV
ARM ARM HOLDINGS PLC
R3NK RENK GROUP AG
EXENS EXOSENS
4X0 STEYR MOTORS AG
ALHG LOUIS HACHETTE GROUP
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
Ahold Delhaize: Peer Kroger 4Q25 results. bpost: 4Q25/FY25 result in line, no dividend, FY26 outlook in line, assumptions optimistic. Eurocommercial Properties: Cautious guidance despite Swedish acquisition. Sligro: Feedback from group CMD. Universal Music Group: In line clean EBITDA, FCF below, US listing shelved
- BC-bc user
- Guy Sips
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Jacob Mekhael
- Livio Luyten
- Lynn Hautekeete
- Michiel Declercq
- Wim Lewi
- Stefano Toffano
- Wim Gille
- Marc Zwartsenburg
- CEFA
bpost/A turnaround is not a next day delivery/HOLD
HOLD maintained; target price increased from €1.75 to €1.95 to reflect progress made in the last two quarters and the increase in outlook. However, we also believe tough trading conditions, optimisation of Staci and transformation of Radial US will mean that a recovery of fundamentals cannot be expected in the next quarter(s) as visibility is low and transformation takes time. We do see the longer-term potential but first want to see tangible evidence of margin recovery which validates plugging ...
- Roy Külter
- Steven Boumans
BVI BUREAU VERITAS SA
APAML APERAM SA
OUT1V OUTOKUMPU OYJ
EVT EVOTEC SE
TNG TRANSGENE SA
ISS ISS A/S
ITRK INTERTEK GROUP PLC
BOSS HUGO BOSS AG
ACX ACERINOX SA
TRI TRIGANO SA
FAE FAES FARMA S.A.
ATS AT & S AUSTRIA TECHNOLOGIE & SYSTEMTECHNIK AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
ROYAL VOPAK NV
MONT MONTEA SCA
BPOST BPOST SA
CPINV CARE PROPERTY INVEST SA
TWEKA TKH GROUP N.V. CERT
DGM DIAGNOSTIC MEDICAL SYSTEMS
RUI RUBIS SCA
DIGI DIGI COMMUNICATIONS NV
GEST GESTAMP AUTOMOCION S.A.
ALFEN ALFEN NV
HFG HELLOFRESH SE
ERF EUROFINS SCIENTIFIC SOCIETE EUROPEENNE
AG1 AUTO1 GROUP
SGSN SGS SA
SHA SCHAEFFLER AG
- Roy Külter
- Steven Boumans
BVI BUREAU VERITAS SA
APAML APERAM SA
OUT1V OUTOKUMPU OYJ
EVT EVOTEC SE
TNG TRANSGENE SA
ISS ISS A/S
ITRK INTERTEK GROUP PLC
BOSS HUGO BOSS AG
ACX ACERINOX SA
TRI TRIGANO SA
FAE FAES FARMA S.A.
ATS AT & S AUSTRIA TECHNOLOGIE & SYSTEMTECHNIK AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
ROYAL VOPAK NV
MONT MONTEA SCA
BPOST BPOST SA
CPINV CARE PROPERTY INVEST SA
TWEKA TKH GROUP N.V. CERT
DGM DIAGNOSTIC MEDICAL SYSTEMS
RUI RUBIS SCA
DIGI DIGI COMMUNICATIONS NV
GEST GESTAMP AUTOMOCION S.A.
ALFEN ALFEN NV
HFG HELLOFRESH SE
ERF EUROFINS SCIENTIFIC SOCIETE EUROPEENNE
AG1 AUTO1 GROUP
SGSN SGS SA
SHA SCHAEFFLER AG
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
Ahold Delhaize: Strong beat driven by one-offs Alfen: Bull bear fight continues bpost: 3Q25 results in line with INGF but miss vs consensus, FY25 outlook fine-tuned to top-end CM.com: Takeover offer from Bird Coca-Cola Europacific Partners: Refreshing D'Ieteren: Belron peer Driven Brands 3Q25 talks of lower Q4, choppiness in Collision and Direct Repair Exor: Ferrari reassures with strong 3Q25, improved guidance KPN: Strategy update reassures, largely in line, with solid cash returns expec...
KPN ROYAL KPN NV
WKL WOLTERS KLUWER NV
VNA VONOVIA SE
UCB UCB S.A.
DIE D'IETEREN SA
ROYAL VOPAK NV
MONT MONTEA SCA
BPOST BPOST SA
EXO EXOR N.V.
AD KONINKLIJKE AHOLD DELHAIZE N.V.
CCEP COCA-COLA EUROPEAN PARTNERS PLC
ALFEN ALFEN NV
DSC1 DUTCH STAR C SHAR
UMG UNIVERSAL MUSIC GROUP NV
VAR VAR ENERGI ASA
- Kristof Samoy
- Livio Luyten
- Lynn Hautekeete
- Michiel Declercq
- Thibault Leneeuw
- Thomas Couvreur
- Wim Lewi
- Stefano Toffano
- Wim Gille
- Guy Sips
- Kristof Samoy
- Livio Luyten
- Michiel Declercq
- Thomas Couvreur
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
- Michiel Declercq
bpost Conference call feedback and model update post 2Q25
Despite the ongoing headwinds, bpost reported better than expected 2Q25 results, with the adj. EBIT of € 58.3m exceeding expectations (kbcse: € 46m, css: € 48m). While results in Belgium were somewhat lower, this was offset by better than expected results in the other divisions while Staci's performance was in line. Although sales pressure at Radial US continued following the termination of contracts in 2024 and early 2025, we are pleased to see that its new fast track offering is gaining tracti...
- Martin Marandon-Carlhian
- Sinan Doganli
OERL OC OERLIKON CORPORATION AG
DEZ DEUTZ AG
ROS ROSENBAUER INTERNATIONAL AG
CCC CCC SA
SQN SWISSQUOTE GROUP HOLDING AG
BPOST BPOST SA
POST OSTERREICHISCHE POST AG
JUN3 JUNGHEINRICH AG PREF
GALE GALENICA AG
S92 SMA SOLAR TECHNOLOGY AG
NLBR NOVA LJUBLJANSKA BANKA DD LJUBLJANA
KTA KNAUS TABBERT
AG1 AUTO1 GROUP
NVM NOVEM GROUP SA
CABKA CABKA N.V.
- Martin Marandon-Carlhian
- Sinan Doganli
OERL OC OERLIKON CORPORATION AG
DEZ DEUTZ AG
ROS ROSENBAUER INTERNATIONAL AG
CCC CCC SA
SQN SWISSQUOTE GROUP HOLDING AG
BPOST BPOST SA
POST OSTERREICHISCHE POST AG
JUN3 JUNGHEINRICH AG PREF
GALE GALENICA AG
S92 SMA SOLAR TECHNOLOGY AG
KTA KNAUS TABBERT
AG1 AUTO1 GROUP
NVM NOVEM GROUP SA
CABKA CABKA N.V.
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
bpost: 2Q25 results beat 22%, outlook raised further, room for another upgrade at 3Q25. Lotus Bakeries: APAC factory ahead of schedule. NN Group: 1H on track with May CMD, longevity deal a positive surprise (Sol 2 PF 205%). Talabat: 2Q25 Preview. Vopak: AVTL's FID on Mumbai expansion
- Guy Sips
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Kristof Samoy
- Michiel Declercq
- Thomas Couvreur
- Wim Lewi
- Stefano Toffano
- Wim Gille
- Guy Sips
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Jacob Mekhael
- Michiel Declercq
- Thomas Vranken
- Wim Lewi
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