reports
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
Basic-Fit: 1Q24 update in line, FY24 outlook in line with consensus at mid-point. bpost: Agreement on Flemish newspaper delivery; risk of provisions largely removed. Cofinimmo: Q1 results in line. Corbion: Tail wags the dog. IMCD: The last hurdle was a harsh clip. Proximus: Strong start to the year, guidance unchanged ahead of Digi arrival. Recticel: Kingspan 1Q24 trading update. Signify: 1Q24 results; revenue decline accelerates. Umicore: Confirms FY 2024 EBITDA guidance range. ...
- Guy Sips
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Lynn Hautekeete
- Michiel Declercq
- Thibault Leneeuw
- Thomas Couvreur
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
- Guy Sips
- Jacob Mekhael
- Kristof Samoy
- Michiel Declercq
- Thomas Couvreur
- Wim Hoste
- Marc Zwartsenburg
- CEFA
bpost/Acquisition of Staci – a transformational deal/HOLD
bpost signed an agreement to acquire 100% of the shares in Staci, a European specialist in third-party logistics. This transformational deal further mitigates bpost's exposure to mail while adding additional volumes into its last mile parcel delivery network while is strengthens its position in the omni channel logistics, fulfilment, warehousing and cross border segment. In addition, Staci offers an international B2B logistics offering and adds new regions while strengthening others. The high ma...
- Michiel Declercq
bpost Staci acquisition conference call feedback: ready for a new dire...
Friday evening, bpost announced that it will acquire the France-based fulfilment and logistics service provider Staci, focussing on B2B, for an EV of € 1.3bn (EV/EBITDA of c.12.0x). The announcement will be followed by a conference call at 10 am today. We reiterate our Buy rating and €6.9 TP.
- Ahmed Ben Salem
- ING Helpdesk
- Ahmed Ben Salem
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Michiel Declercq
- Wim Lewi
- Stefano Toffano
- Wim Gille
Bpost : Signed agreement to acquire Staci Group
>Acquisition of Staci from Ardian for € 1.3bn - On Friday after close, Bpost announced the signing of an agreement with the intention to acquire Staci, a European provider of third-party fulfilment and logistics services. Staci is to be acquired from Ardian as well as a few minority shareholders (i.e. 20% owned by SG Capital and management) for a purchase price reflecting an Enterprise Value of € 1.3bn (pre-IFRS 16), implying roughly 12x FY23 EV/EBITDA. Bpost intends ...
- Frank Claassen
bpost - Major acquisition, but at a stretched multiple
• Bpost acquires Staci, a European specialist in third party logistics, for an EV of not less than EUR 1.3bn.• Strategically this acquisition accelerates its transformation. However, the multiple paid of close to 12x EV/EBITDA (pre-IFRS 16) is stretched. Note that Bpost itself is trading at less than 3x.• Awaiting more details from today's conference call, we stick to our Hold rating.
- Marc Zwartsenburg
- CEFA
bpost/All priced in?/HOLD (previously Sell)
We upgrade from Sell to HOLD as the downside risk from the weak macro environment and the possible negative impact from a (partial) loss of the press concessions seems priced in after a c.€2 decline of the share price since end-November (or c.-40%). Of course, the outcome could be worse due to sticky costs and/or higher provisions or a 100% loss of contract, however, we feel that on average the downside risk has become sufficiently limited to call a bottom. We expect an outcome of the press conc...
- Jean Danjou
- Jean-Baptiste Rouphael
- Marc Lavaud
- Oliver Metzger
BEKB BEKAERT SA
SOP SOPRA STERIA GROUP SA
ACX ACERINOX SA
EBRO EBRO FOODS SA
FR VALEO SE
BON BONDUELLE SCA
FIE FIELMANN AG
SOC SUBSEA 7 S.A.
AIXA AIXTRON SE
VIS VISCOFAN S.A.
FCC FOMENTO DE CONSTRUCCIONES Y CONTRATAS S.A.
BPOST BPOST SA
EDR EDREAMS ODIGEO SA
A3TV ATRESMEDIA CORPORACION DE MEDIOS DE COMUNICACION SA
ENC ENCE ENERGIA Y CELULOSA SA
COL INMOBILIARIA COLONIAL SOCIMI SA
CSM CORBION NV
LRE LAR ESPANA REAL ESTATE SOCIMI SA
TLGO TALGO SA
MEL MELIA HOTELS INTERNATIONAL S.A.
TRE TECNICAS REUNIDAS SA
IBG IBERPAPEL GESTION S.A.
PSG PROSEGUR COMPANIA DE SEGURIDAD SA
CASH PROSEGUR CASH SA
BFSA BEFESA SA
VK VALLOUREC SA
TE TECHNIP ENERGIES NV
EXN EXCLUSIVE NETWORKS SA
SPM SAIPEM S.P.A.
ENER GRUPO ECOENER S.A.
- Jean Danjou
- Jean-Baptiste Rouphael
- Marc Lavaud
- Oliver Metzger
BEKB BEKAERT SA
SOP SOPRA STERIA GROUP SA
ACX ACERINOX SA
EBRO EBRO FOODS SA
FR VALEO SE
BON BONDUELLE SCA
FIE FIELMANN AG
SOC SUBSEA 7 S.A.
AIXA AIXTRON SE
VIS VISCOFAN S.A.
FCC FOMENTO DE CONSTRUCCIONES Y CONTRATAS S.A.
BPOST BPOST SA
EDR EDREAMS ODIGEO SA
A3TV ATRESMEDIA CORPORACION DE MEDIOS DE COMUNICACION SA
ENC ENCE ENERGIA Y CELULOSA SA
COL INMOBILIARIA COLONIAL SOCIMI SA
CSM CORBION NV
LRE LAR ESPANA REAL ESTATE SOCIMI SA
TLGO TALGO SA
MEL MELIA HOTELS INTERNATIONAL S.A.
TRE TECNICAS REUNIDAS SA
IBG IBERPAPEL GESTION S.A.
PSG PROSEGUR COMPANIA DE SEGURIDAD SA
CASH PROSEGUR CASH SA
BFSA BEFESA SA
VK VALLOUREC SA
TE TECHNIP ENERGIES NV
EXN EXCLUSIVE NETWORKS SA
SPM SAIPEM S.P.A.
ENER GRUPO ECOENER S.A.
- Stefano Toffano
- Wim Gille
Bpost : Good results, all things considered, but turbulence ahead
>Relatively steady operating income and solid margins - Bpost’s operating income was relatively resilient, with inflationary pressures continuing to impact operating earnings. Group operating income for the quarter came in at € 1,217m and adjusted EBIT at € 74m, respectively -2% and +11% vs. ccs, and -3% and +10% vs. our estimates. Bpost’s results continue to be driven by Belgium and E-Logistics Eurasia, while E-Logistics NA performed poorly once again due to challeng...
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Jacob Mekhael
- Michiel Declercq
- Thibault Leneeuw
- Thomas Couvreur
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
AEGON: Another beat, another $. Bekaert: FY23 EBITu and FCF beat, pausing of buyback might disappoint given strong BS. Belysse: Europe starting its revival. bpost: 4Q23 3% beat vs INGF (11% vs cons) driven by E-logistics Eurasia; FY24 outlook at 4-7% vs INGF ex Press impact. Corbion: Jam tomorrow. Heijmans: 2024 EBITDA guidance 30% above estimate. IMCD: As expected 4Q23. TKH Group: Preview; Eyes on 2024 outlook statements. Results Calendar
- Frank Claassen
bpost - Impact of loss of press concession is looming
• Despite lower than anticipated revenues in the US, the Q4-23 results were still solid on EBIT. • However, no specific outlook for 2024 at this stage as it is too difficult to assess the impact of the loss of the press concession. • Although multiples appear undemanding, visibility is low. We lower our TP from EUR 5.20 to EUR 4.40, based on our 2025e SOTP. Hold.
- Guy Sips
- Thibault Leneeuw
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
- Marc Zwartsenburg
- CEFA
bpost/Impact analysis Press concession/SELL (previously Hold)
We downgrade our rating from Hold to SELL due to the potential negative impact we estimate from the Press concession combined with a gloomy macro environment especially in the US. Although we acknowledge that the impact from a potential loss of newspaper and magazine volumes is hard to predict, we believe the significantly lower State compensation and potential loss of market share combined with perhaps sticky costs linked to the contracts might lead to a significant negative impact on the EBIT ...
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