bpost Conference call feedback and model update post 2Q25
Despite the ongoing headwinds, bpost reported better than expected 2Q25 results, with the adj. EBIT of € 58.3m exceeding expectations (kbcse: € 46m, css: € 48m). While results in Belgium were somewhat lower, this was offset by better than expected results in the other divisions while Staci's performance was in line. Although sales pressure at Radial US continued following the termination of contracts in 2024 and early 2025, we are pleased to see that its new fast track offering is gaining traction while the underlying EBIT stabilized. As a result of further cost savings in 2H25, bpost new believes there is a high probability to come in at the high end of the € 150-180m adj. EBIT range. This compares to a “reduced exposure to the low end” previously. After adjusting our estimates, we reiterate our Hold but increase our TP from € 1.7ps to € 2.0ps.Bpost is engaged in the provision of national and international mail and parcels services comprising the collection, transport, sorting and distribution of addressed and non-addressed mail, printed documents, newspapers and parcels. In addition, through its subsidiaries and business units, Co. sells a range of other products and services, including postal, parcels, banking and financial products, express delivery services, document management and related activities. Co. operates through two business units: the Mail & Retail Solutions and the Parcels & International.
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