reports
- Michiel Declercq
- Wim Hoste
- Michiel Declercq
bpost Ambitious targets, but uncertainty remains
During the CMD on June 3rd, bpost announced its strategic ambitions for the 2024–2027 period. While the 2027 outlook came in well above our estimates, we note that most of the projected Adj. EBIT growth is expected to be back-end loaded, as the group continues to face challenges in 2025 and 2026. Nonetheless, we believe management made a good impression. We were particularly encouraged by the launch of Radial's new fast-track offering in the U.S., with initial customer onboardings trending ahead...
- ING Helpdesk
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
Aedifica and Cofinimmo: Agreement reached to create Europe's leading Healthcare REIT. bpost: CMD press release; #Reshape 2029. D'Ieteren: Belgian new car registrations down 11.7% in May, VW down 13.5% Fugro: Meeting with CEO & IR; 2Q25 also has its challenges. UCB: Peer Moonlake held takeover talks with US Merck, FT reports
- Michiel Declercq
bpost Launches new 2024-2027 ambitions
Today, bpost launched its “Reshape 2029” strategy. This will be followed by a CMD in Brussels later today. Over the next years, bpost's intends to reposition itself as a logistics leader that also provides postal services. The transformation should result in group revenues exceeding € 5.0bn by 2027 (kbcse: € 4.8bn), with the adj. EBIT expected to progressively recover above € 275m (kbcse: € 208m). Growth is mainly expected to come from its 3PL business. While the outlook comes in comfortably abo...
- Guy Sips
- Jacob Mekhael
- Lynn Hautekeete
- Michiel Declercq
- Marc Zwartsenburg
- CEFA
bpost/Surprisingly positive Last Mile; upgrade coming?/HOLD
We keep our HOLD rating, but we increase our target price from €1.55 to €1.75. bpost reported a strong 1Q25 with a 22% beat vs company compiled consensus. Whereas BeNe Last Mile disappointed in the previous quarter, it now surprised strongly on the upside despite the impact from the strikes. bpost does not see an impact from the tariff wars and it might be less of an issue than initially expected. Radial US is still in a tough spot but with an improving pipeline while Staci seemed on track, alth...
- Wim Hoste
Tessenderlo FIRST LOOK: Creating a global leader in gelatin/collagen w...
Tessenderlo and Darling Ingredients announced the intention to combine their gelatin & collagen businesses in a joint venture, in which Tessenderlo would have a 15% stake. In light of the difficult market conditions, we welcome the combination which will lead to a gelatin & collagen powerhouse with a global market share of 35-40%. We still appreciate Tessenderlo for the sizeable free cash flow generation and maintain our Accumulate rating for now.
- Roy Külter
- Steven Boumans
- Thomas Zlowodzki
PROX PROXIMUS SA DE DROIT PUBLIC
ZIL2 ELRINGKLINGER AG
LXS LANXESS AG
ACX ACERINOX SA
COFB COFINIMMO SA
INH INDUS HOLDING AG
KRN KRONES AG
MONT MONTEA SCA
AMG AMG ADVANCED METALLURGICAL GROUP N.V.
SAX STROEER SE & CO. KGAA
BPOST BPOST SA
BRNL BRUNEL INTERNATIONAL N.V.
SSO SCATEC ASA
NVG NAVIGATOR COMPANY SA
RENE REDES ENERGETICAS NACIONAIS SA
ROVI LABORATORIOS FARMACEUTICOS ROVI S.A.
VGP VGP NV
COL INMOBILIARIA COLONIAL SOCIMI SA
SIFG SIF HOLDING NV
FACC FACC AG
WLN WORLDLINE SA
MEL MELIA HOTELS INTERNATIONAL S.A.
NKT NKT A/S
GEST GESTAMP AUTOMOCION S.A.
SAB BANCO DE SABADELL SA
CAF CONSTRUCCIONES Y AUXILIAR DE FERROCARRILES S.A.
S92 SMA SOLAR TECHNOLOGY AG
EAT AMREST HOLDINGS SE
NEXI NEXI S.P.A.
NLBR NOVA LJUBLJANSKA BANKA DD LJUBLJANA
AG1 AUTO1 GROUP
MRX MISTER SPEX SE
ECMPA EUROCOMMERCIAL PROPERTIES NV
BRE BREMBO S.P.A.
- Roy Külter
- Steven Boumans
- Thomas Zlowodzki
PROX PROXIMUS SA DE DROIT PUBLIC
ZIL2 ELRINGKLINGER AG
LXS LANXESS AG
ACX ACERINOX SA
COFB COFINIMMO SA
INH INDUS HOLDING AG
KRN KRONES AG
MONT MONTEA SCA
AMG AMG ADVANCED METALLURGICAL GROUP N.V.
SAX STROEER SE & CO. KGAA
BPOST BPOST SA
BRNL BRUNEL INTERNATIONAL N.V.
SSO SCATEC ASA
NVG NAVIGATOR COMPANY SA
RENE REDES ENERGETICAS NACIONAIS SA
ROVI LABORATORIOS FARMACEUTICOS ROVI S.A.
VGP VGP NV
COL INMOBILIARIA COLONIAL SOCIMI SA
SIFG SIF HOLDING NV
FACC FACC AG
WLN WORLDLINE SA
MEL MELIA HOTELS INTERNATIONAL S.A.
NKT NKT A/S
GEST GESTAMP AUTOMOCION S.A.
SAB BANCO DE SABADELL SA
CAF CONSTRUCCIONES Y AUXILIAR DE FERROCARRILES S.A.
S92 SMA SOLAR TECHNOLOGY AG
EAT AMREST HOLDINGS SE
NEXI NEXI S.P.A.
AG1 AUTO1 GROUP
MRX MISTER SPEX SE
ECMPA EUROCOMMERCIAL PROPERTIES NV
BRE BREMBO S.P.A.
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
Aedifica, Cofinimmo: Aedifica CMD feedback bpost: 1Q25 results beat strongly, outlook surprises Brunel: 1Q25 results disappoint on perm, weak revenue Cofinimmo, Aedifica: Negative reaction on Aedifica offer Eurocommercial Properties: Good with no surprise Montea: Good results, guidance reconfirmed Proximus: Small 1Q beat, guidance reiterated, soft commercial performance Sif Group: The jury is still out Talabat: Preview 1Q25 Universal Music Group: Peer Warner Music slowdown in streaming and prof...
GBLB GROUPE BRUXELLES LAMBERT SA
PNL POSTNL NV
COFB COFINIMMO SA
MONT MONTEA SCA
AED AEDIFICA SA
AALB AALBERTS N.V.
BPOST BPOST SA
BRNL BRUNEL INTERNATIONAL N.V.
VGP VGP NV
SIFG SIF HOLDING NV
UMG UNIVERSAL MUSIC GROUP NV
ECMPA EUROCOMMERCIAL PROPERTIES NV
CTPNV CTP NV
TALABAT TALABAT HOLDING PLC
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Jacob Mekhael
- Lynn Hautekeete
- Michiel Declercq
- Thomas Vranken
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
- Stefano Toffano
- Wim Gille
- Michiel Declercq
bpost Facing challenges on multiple fronts
Running up to the publication of the 1Q25 results on Friday, we have revised our estimates to the downside. For FY25, we currently expect the adj. EBIT to decrease by 32% to € 153m, or the low-end of the guided € 150-180m range despite an additional 7 months of Staci consolidation. Our estimates mainly reflect additional headwinds from the 2-week strikes, as well as some uncertainty related to the US tariff situation. Incorporating our new estimates into our model, we lower our TP from € 2.6 to ...
- Livio Luyten
- Lynn Hautekeete
- Michiel Declercq
- Wim Lewi
- Marc Zwartsenburg
- CEFA
bpost/A painful last mile/HOLD
We keep our HOLD but again lower our TP, from €2.10 to €1.60, a reflection of our further cut in estimates and ongoing downside risk on estimates and outlook due to strikes and global trade wars. Despite a beat on 4Q24, the outlook for FY25 is well below expectations. The dividend over FY24 was cancelled due to an impairment on Radial. The outlook for BeNe Last Mile was disappointing which, despite the already built-in loss of Press volumes, still missed significantly even the most cautious esti...
- Guy Sips
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Jacob Mekhael
- Kristof Samoy
- Lynn Hautekeete
- Sharad Kumar S.P
- Thomas Couvreur
- Thomas Vranken
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
Avantium: Management team change. Belgian telcos: Extra data on Proximus brand mobile plans at no additional cost. Elia: Launch of €1.35bn rights issue and closing of €850m private placement. Randstad: Preliminary preview of 1Q25F results due 23 April. Shell plc: Very solid CMD, attractive outlook for shareholders. Tessenderlo: 2024 in-line with lowered outlook, soft 2025F guidance
- Wim Hoste
Tessenderlo FIRST LOOK: FY24 adjusted EBITDA -17%, FY25 guidance of fl...
Tessenderlo's FY24 adjusted EBITDA dropped by c17%, in line with the -15-20% guidance and broadly in line with our and consensus forecasts. The FY25 guidance points to a flat to 20% higher adjusted EBITDA, with our forecast (+12%) in line with this guidance whilst consensus (+24%) seems too high. Whilst business conditions in a number of end markets are clearly challenging, Tessenderlo is still generating a sizeable cash flow. Despite the fairly weak recent earnings momentum, we consider valuati...
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Thomas Couvreur
- Thomas Vranken
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
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