Benelux Morning Notes

Ascencio: Stable update CFE: Preview; margin over volume CVC Capital Partners: Moments of Realisation D'Ieteren: Belron North American peer Boyd points to positive 3Q25 inflection point in like for like growth Fastned: 1H25 results; disappointing charging volumes, cost pressure continues Greenyard: Results of second acceptance period concerning takeover bid and launching squeeze-out

bpost Conference call feedback and model update post 2Q25

Despite the ongoing headwinds, bpost reported better than expected 2Q25 results, with the adj. EBIT of € 58.3m exceeding expectations (kbcse: € 46m, css: € 48m). While results in Belgium were somewhat lower, this was offset by better than expected results in the other divisions while Staci's performance was in line. Although sales pressure at Radial US continued following the termination of contracts in 2024 and early 2025, we are pleased to see that its new fast track offering is gaining tracti...

ODDO BHF SECURITIES Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS – 08/08/2025

ODDO BHF SECURITIES Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS – 08/08/2025

Benelux Morning Notes

bpost: 2Q25 results beat 22%, outlook raised further, room for another upgrade at 3Q25. Lotus Bakeries: APAC factory ahead of schedule. NN Group: 1H on track with May CMD, longevity deal a positive surprise (Sol 2 PF 205%). Talabat: 2Q25 Preview. Vopak: AVTL's FID on Mumbai expansion

Morning Notes : BPOST BB, JEN BB, LOTB BB, NN NA, VPK NA

: BPOST BB, JEN BB, LOTB BB, NN NA, VPK NA

Bpost : Hitting its own targets (which is already a good sign)

Tessenderlo/Model update ahead of 1H25/BUY

We update our model to reflect recent macro and FX trends as well as Tessenderlo's 2025F guidance. We lower our target price to €30 per share from €32 previously, mainly as a result of our lower estimates. We stick to our BUY on valuation grounds.

Holdings Report - July 2025 KBCS Holdings Universe Returns -0.5% Durin...

1M Performance - Absolute Total Return: During Jul'25 (1M period), the KBCS Holdings Universe posted a total return of -0.5% which was mainly driven by the performance of the multi-asset holdings (-0.9%), while the single-asset holdings posted a return of +0.4%. The 3 top performers during the period were Financière de Tubize (+11.7%), KBC Ancora (+9.4%) and Quest For Growth (+5.5%) while the 3 worst performers were Brederode (-6.4%), Heineken Holding (-5.0%) and D'Ieteren Group (-4.7%). YTD Pe...

D'Ieteren/Compounding business services portfolio

We think the May CMD cemented D'Ieteren's profile as an EPS and FCF compounder, +14% EPS CAGR 2025F-28F, +14% FCFev CAGR, a specialised listed Private Equity (PE) fund building a portfolio of growth platforms in adjacent, resilient business services companies, with a potential to rerate and D'Ieteren to invest in new high ROCE, FCF businesses with scalable franchise. We estimate a new participation could add c.15% of EBITDA by 2026/2027. We think the IPO of Belron, 70% of our SOTP, is possible b...

Benelux Morning Notes

ASM: 2Q25 Preview, AI winner BE Semiconductor Industries: 2Q25 Preview, focus on advanced order intake CM.com: Preview 1H25 D'Ieteren: Belron $4.655bn TBL repriced 25bp lower PostNL: Preview 2Q25F; consensus released Wolters Kluwer: To divest Finance, Risk and Regulatory Reporting unit

ING Benelux Favourites/Weekly performance and valuation update

We update the performance of our ING Benelux Favourites list as well as all valuation and ranking tables for our coverage universe. Performance on the front page is dated from the 27 January 2025, while historical performance is included on the second page. The methodology for our favourites selection is based on a bottom-up approach with a focus on absolute performance with clear near-term triggers. It is a rolling list, ie, stocks can enter/exit whenever we think opportune. The ING Benelux Fav...

Benelux Morning Notes

D'Ieteren: Belron renegotiating US$4.65bn TLB debt at lower rates Exor: Call for caution, also after tax probe settlement Solvay: Cuts 2025F EBITDA outlook, maintains FCF guidance TomTom: 2Q25 results; guidance increased

Benelux Morning Notes

Alfen: CEO intends to retire early. D'Ieteren: Belgian June car registrations down 16%, VW down only 5%, good mix. Euronext: Bearing gifts to Greeks. JDE Peet's: Instant Decaf

Dynamic Top Pick List Update July: Removing Fagron and Melexis, Adding...

Since the last publication of our Dynamic Top Pick List on 5 June 2025, our selection has seen again a nice outperformance versus the reverence indices (AEX, Bel20 and Eurostoxx50) of on average 3.3%. Our July update brings 3 adjustments to the list : Since being added to the list in December 2024, Fagron's share price has surged +/-22%, driven by strong Q1 2025 results and robust growth across all regions. Fagron reaffirmed its FY25 guidance and unveiled its “Compounding for Growth” strategy, ...

Tessenderlo Group: 1 director

A director at Tessenderlo Group bought 626,596 shares at 25.140EUR and the significance rating of the trade was 67/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years cl...

Morning Notes : AGFB BB, BPOST BB, GLPG NA, PROX BB, UCB BB, MAAT FP

: AGFB BB, BPOST BB, GLPG NA, PROX BB, UCB BB, MAAT FP

Dollar Weakness The impact on our Benelux Coverage

In general, a weaker USD has a negative impact on Benelux stocks, particularly for companies with significant exports to the US. In this note we selected a list of companies with high US export exposure and we examine the potential impact on FY25 earninings. On top of the weak dollar, rising trade tensions or the introduction of tariffs further harm Benelux exporters. As the dollar depreciates against the euro, European goods become costlier for American consumers. At the same time, revenues ear...

Morning Notes : BPOSTb BB, TESB BB

: BPOSTb BB, TESB BB

bpost Ambitious targets, but uncertainty remains

During the CMD on June 3rd, bpost announced its strategic ambitions for the 2024–2027 period. While the 2027 outlook came in well above our estimates, we note that most of the projected Adj. EBIT growth is expected to be back-end loaded, as the group continues to face challenges in 2025 and 2026. Nonetheless, we believe management made a good impression. We were particularly encouraged by the launch of Radial's new fast-track offering in the U.S., with initial customer onboardings trending ahead...