Benelux Morning Notes

AEGON: 3Q in line, UK weak, all eyes on CMD in December. DEME Group: Going into 2026 with a stable order book. D'Ieteren: North America Beron peer Boyd confirms positive l/l in 3Q25, further improvement in 4Q25. KBC: 3Q above, increase in FY25 guidance across the board, first SRT is sizeable. Ontex: Peer Essity acquires Edgewell's Feminine Care activity. SBM Offshore: Progression in markets and earnings. Zabka: CVC and PG sell 100m shares via ABB

bpost/A turnaround is not a next day delivery/HOLD

HOLD maintained; target price increased from €1.75 to €1.95 to reflect progress made in the last two quarters and the increase in outlook. However, we also believe tough trading conditions, optimisation of Staci and transformation of Radial US will mean that a recovery of fundamentals cannot be expected in the next quarter(s) as visibility is low and transformation takes time. We do see the longer-term potential but first want to see tangible evidence of margin recovery which validates plugging ...

Dynamic Top Pick List Update November: Removing Xior; Adding Aedifica

The tariff war has eased, but with Trump, uncertainty has become a guarantee. While the macro-economic impact has been limited so far, the prolonged situation could still result in significant and long-lasting economic damage. We are maintaining a defensive stance in our Benelux Dynamic Top Pick List. The Federal Reserve (FED) has started its easing cycle, but the final amount of interest rate cuts is uncertain. The European Central Bank (ECB) has now largely completed its interest rate cutting ...

ODDO BHF SECURITIES Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS – 11/05/2025

ODDO BHF SECURITIES Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS – 05/11/2025

Benelux Morning Notes

Ahold Delhaize: Strong beat driven by one-offs Alfen: Bull bear fight continues bpost: 3Q25 results in line with INGF but miss vs consensus, FY25 outlook fine-tuned to top-end CM.com: Takeover offer from Bird Coca-Cola Europacific Partners: Refreshing D'Ieteren: Belron peer Driven Brands 3Q25 talks of lower Q4, choppiness in Collision and Direct Repair Exor: Ferrari reassures with strong 3Q25, improved guidance KPN: Strategy update reassures, largely in line, with solid cash returns expec...

Morning Notes : AD NA, BPOST BB, CPINV BB, GIMB BB, KPN NA, MONT BB, V...

: AD NA, BPOST BB, CPINV BB, GIMB BB, KPN NA, MONT BB, VPK NA, WDP BB, WKL NA, ALFEN NA

Bpost : Confidence in peak season delivery supports FY25 targets

Benelux Morning Notes

Azelis: Appointment of Boris Cambon-Lalanne as group CFO. Belgian Telecoms: Price increase on most of the non-commercialised products and Scarlet trio. D'Ieteren: Belgian October car registrations down 7%, VW down 20%. Kendrion: Results preview; launching share buyback programme. Kinepolis: Acquires US movie theatre chain Emagine Entertainment for US$105m. Kinepolis: October box office in US/Canada and France attendance drop again. Ontex: Branded activity now fully divested. Philip...

D'Ieteren/A leap of faith for 2H25, concerns for 2026/BUY

We cut our 2025-28F EPS by 4-5% and target price by 5% to €223 on weaker TVH, PHE and Belron as well as lower multiples, in particular at TVH. We still expect 13% FCFev CAGR 2025-28F and 14% EPS CAGR, on 7% EBIT CAGR. The stock has underperformed 17% since 1H25 and is flat YTD, trading at >40% discount, 11x P/E 2026F, 7% FCFev yield. We remain believers in the long-term story, self-help potential (Belron price/mix, cash/commercial markets, mobile static recalibration, TVH turnaround) but admit t...

Benelux Morning Notes

AB InBev: The interim is back. Arcadis: Slow return to organic growth, FCF disappoints. Ayvens: Keeping its promise. dsm-firmenich: Waiting for Godot. D'Ieteren: Boyd prelim 3Q25, $1.3bn M&A deal, NYSE listing, $780m capital increase. Flow Traders: Down but not out. Ontex: FY25F guidance confirmed despite a modestly softer 3Q25. Recticel: Weak 3Q25 but comforting outlook. Shell plc: Solid story with cash continuing to come in strongly. TKH Group: Preview - subsea remains in foc...

Benelux Morning Notes

Alfen: Preview - kitchen sinking again? CM.com: New CFO appointed. Cofinimmo: Good results a touch better than forecasts, guidance reconfirmed, DEME Group: Wins strategic position in Brazil. D'Ieteren: State Farm TPA contract details emerge. Signify: 3Q25 results – guidance cut. Xior Student Housing: 5.4% LFL growth and full occupancy – operational trends solid.

Benelux Morning Notes

Ageas: AG Real Estate looking to reduce exposure to Interparking, lower capital charges. Air France-KLM: 3Q25 a bit light? ASML: Preview 3Q25, riding the AI wave. Barco: Preview 3Q25, self-help offsets macro headwind. D'Ieteren: Belron starts to roll out static mobile recalibration. Euronext: September's seasonal recovery. Tessenderlo More focus on capital allocation and returns. TomTom: Preview 3Q25, Cost cutting offsets slow markets. Umicore: Gold inventory sale-and-lease-back

Tessenderlo Feedback Analyst & Asset Manager Day

Tessenderlo reiterated FY25 guidance at the occasion of its Investor event yesterday. We note that Luc Tack expressed his desire to become more strict in allocating capex, whilst in terms of activity portfolio there are no sacred cows and management asks themselves whether they are still the best owner of their businesses. The deal with Darling Ingredients on gelatin & collagen is progressing with deal closing probable in 2H26. We continue to appreciate Tessenderlo for its healthy FCF generation...

Morning Notes : AALB NA, HEIA NA, TESB BB, UMI BB

: AALB NA, HEIA NA, TESB BB, UMI BB

Morning Notes : ASRNL NA, FAGR BB, HAL NA, TESB BB

: ASRNL NA, FAGR BB, HAL NA, TESB BB

Benelux Morning Notes

Belgian telcos: Digi launches new mobile offer at €7 per month with 30GB D'Ieteren: Belgium Sept car registration, Febiac cuts 2025 outlook to 405-410k new cars Dutch insurance: Achmea Sixth Steet JV done, new entrant for buyouts for ASR and NN Heijmans: I'm a steamroller baby Prosus: Just Eat Takeaway offer unconditional WDP: €22m investment in Romania

Dynamic Top Pick List Update October: Removing VGP – Adding Shurgard a...

In this October update of our Dynamic Top Pick List we are removing VGP while adding Shurgard and Wolters Kluwer. Since its recent inclusion in our Dynamic Top Pick List in July-25, VGPs share rose by 10.6%. While we still believe there is significant upside to the share price, we don't see short term catalysts. In fact, the macro picture remains cloudy with the jury still out on the impact of tariffs and the erratic US policy shifts. Also, we are a bit concerned that competition in Western Eur...

Morning Notes : DIE BB

: DIE BB

D'Ieteren All eyes on Belron in 2H25

Following the publication of D'Ieteren's 1H25 results, we have slightly adjusted our estimates to the downside and currently bank on an FY25 adj. PBT (gs) of € 935m (prev. € 946m). Adjusting for constant exchange rates, our estimates imply a 2.8% growth on a comparable basis, or in line with the group's guidance (slight increase). While our new estimates reflect lower margin assumptions for Belron and TVH Parts, this effect is partially offset by lower financing costs at Belron on the back of fa...