>Acceleration of flying hours: solid transport demands and market share gains - After reaching 88% of the 2019 level in FY 2023, we see large engine flying hours (EFH) on the high end of the guidance range for FY 2024 at 106% of 2019. The strength of transport demand combined with the market share gains we expect (c35% of the wide-body installed base at the end of FY 2023 is made up of Trent/RB211 engines and c37%e in FY 2027), mainly driven by the Trent XWB (increas...
>Accélération des heures de vol : solide demande de transport et gains de part de marché - Après avoir atteint 88% du niveau de 2019 en FY 23, nous voyons les heures de vol des moteurs à forte puissance (EFH) sur le haut de fourchette de la guidance pour FY 24 à 106% de 2019. La solidité de la demande de transport conjuguée aux gains de parts de marché que nous anticipons (c35% de la base installée des long-courriers à la fin de FY 23 est constituée de moteurs Trent/...
>14% beat on operating profit and 27% on Underlying FCF for FY 2023 - Rolls-Royce just released FY 2023 results above expectations on all metrics. Underlying operating profit came out at £ 1,590m (ODDO BHF: £ 1,382m, cons: £ 1,391m) for underlying revenues at £ 15.4bn up 21% l-f-l, showing a margin of 10.3%. The gap with forecasts stems from power (pricing and cost optimisation), defence (cost efficiencies and operating leverage) and to a lesser extent civil aerosp...
>14% beat on operating profit and 27% on Underlying FCF for FY 2023 - Rolls-Royce just released FY 2023 results above expectations on all metrics. Underlying operating profit came out at £ 1,590m (ODDO BHF: £ 1,382m, cons: £ 1,391m) for underlying revenues at £ 15.4bn up 21% l-f-l, showing a margin of 10.3%. The gap with forecasts stems from power (pricing and cost optimisation), defence (cost efficiencies and operating leverage) and to a lesser extent civil aerosp...
A director at Rolls-Royce Holdings bought 43,000 shares at 295p and the significance rating of the trade was 65/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clear...
>Upside of c30% on the low end of the target range - It is not easy to upgrade to Outperform after the recent share price trajectory, but based on our new estimates, which only factor in a partial success for the plan unveiled at the CMD (lower end of range), the valuation is still largely attractive. The stock is trading at a 2025e adjusted FCF yield of 10.4% vs 5.2% for Safran and 6% for MTU and a 2025e P/E of 17.4x (10% discount to Safran but 15% premium to MTU)....
>Un upside de c30% sur le bas de fourchette des objectifs - Il n’est pas aisé de relever une recommandation en Surperformance après la trajectoire récente du cours mais sur la base de nos nouvelles estimations, qui n’intègrent qu’un succès partiel du plan dévoilé lors du CMD (bas de fourchette), la valorisation est encore largement attrayante. Le titre se traite sur un FCF yield ajusté 2025 de 10.4% vs. 5.2% pour Safran et 6% pour MTU et un PE 2025 de 17.4x (décote d...
Last week we held our third ODDO BHF Iberian Forum, the third since the announcement of our partnership with BBVA. The event was fully virtual and took place on 4 and 5 October. With 62 Iberian issuers, close to 180 institutional investors and more than 700 meetings, this is one of the largest dedicated Iberian conferences held this year. This note brings together 47 feedback documents, with 6 target price revisions (o/w 4 downgrades). The main subjects of debate were, on the one han...
Malgré une période de profits exceptionnels depuis 2 ans, RWE a connu une performance boursière atone (hors dividendes). Pourtant la période qui s’ouvre et les besoins d’investissements massifs sont typiquement le cocktail idéal pour la création de valeur de long terme. Le titre est passé d’une prime de 30% vs indice à une décote de 17% avec une accélération depuis septembre et les déboires de l’éolien offshore aux US. Nous estimons que les niveaux actuels sont propices à un retour su...
Despite a period of exceptional profits over the past two years, RWE’s share price performance has been flat (excluding dividends). But massive investment needs over the coming years are typically the ideal cocktail for long-term value creation. The stock’s 30% premium to the index has morphed into a 17% discount, with the downward trend accelerating since September following setbacks to US offshore wind. We think this is a good time to return to the stock at current valuation levels....
Last week we held our third ODDO BHF Iberian Forum, the third since the announcement of our partnership with BBVA. The event was fully virtual and took place on 4 and 5 October. With 62 Iberian issuers, close to 180 institutional investors and more than 700 meetings, this is one of the largest dedicated Iberian conferences held this year. This note brings together 47 feedback documents, with 6 target price revisions (o/w 4 downgrades). The main subjects of debate were, on the one han...
>Aftermarket momentum still positive for engine manufacturers but greater upside for Safran - At Safran, Q3 will have benefited from the increase in spare parts prices (at 01/08) and early buying that will in our view push civil aftermarket sales growth to 33% in USD (vs 35% in Q2 and 38.1% in Q1 and 23.7% for Visible Alpha), i.e. sequential growth that we estimate at around 14%. At MTU, we estimate growth at 20% (including early buying ahead of the price increases t...
>Une dynamique après-vente toujours positive pour les motoristes mais un upside plus important coté Safran - Chez Safran, le T3 aura bénéficié de l’augmentation des tarifs de pièces détachées (au 01/08) et d’achats par anticipation qui pousseront, selon nous, la croissance de l’après-vente civile à 33% en USD (vs. 35% au T2 et 38.1% au T1 et 23.7% pour Visible Alpha), soit une croissance séquentielle que nous estimons à c14%. Chez MTU, nous modélisons cette croissanc...
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Report is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.