reports
- David Vagman
- CFA
- Stijn Demeester
OCI N.V./Model update ahead of 1Q24/BUY
We update our model, with our lower 2024F Adj. EBITDA estimate mostly explained by a refined view on phasing of holdco costs and gas hedging losses, as well as weather-related adverse volumes in 1Q24. We reiterate our BUY on OCI, an ING Benelux Favourite, on the back of appealing re-rating potential post-closing of the two recent transformative divestments, generating c.US$6.1bn in net cash proceeds, and optionality of the ongoing strategic review, which could lead to further crystallising of as...
- Marc Zwartsenburg
- CEFA
ING Benelux Favourites/Weekly performance and valuation update
In this publication we update the performance of our ING Benelux Favourites list as well as all valuation and ranking tables for our coverage universe. Performance on the front page is dated from the 26 April 2023, while historical performance is included on the second page. The methodology for our favourites selection is based on a bottom-up approach with a focus on absolute performance with clear near-term triggers. It is a rolling list, ie, stocks can enter/exit whenever we think opportune.
- ING Helpdesk
REVISED VERSION Benelux Morning Notes - to include ABN Amro results
ABN AMRO: 4Q results, new targets; SBB finally turning on the tap. Ahold Delhaize: Strong profitability in 4Q23 driven by US one-off adjustments . Euronext: 4Q23 Preview. Heineken: Four misses in a row with more to come. OCI: +US$3bn capital distribution, further ‘inbound interest' in assets. Vopak: FY23 nicely ended and FY24 looks OK. Results Calendar
- Frank Claassen
OCI - Returning half of its market cap
• The Q4-23 EBITDA was broadly in line with expectations. • Following closing of 2 multi-billion dollar deals, OCI will return more than USD 3bn in cash to shareholders (>EUR 13 p/s), which is roughly half its market cap. • We reiterate our Buy and raise our TP to EUR 31 p/s (was EUR 29 p/s), which is based on our SOTP with still a 5% discount (was 10%) to reflect risks on deals and re-investments.
- Marc Zwartsenburg
- CEFA
ING Benelux Favourites/Weekly performance and valuation update
In this publication we update the performance of our ING Benelux Favourites list as well as all valuation and ranking tables for our coverage universe. Performance on the front page is dated from the 26 April 2023, while historical performance is included on the second page. The methodology for our favourites selection is based on a bottom-up approach with a focus on absolute performance with clear near-term triggers. It is a rolling list, ie, stocks can enter/exit whenever we think opportune.
- Frank Claassen
OCI - Major deals mean major cash returns
Following two multi-billion dollar deals, we estimate OCI will move a to an estimated net cash position of >USD 4.5bn by end 2024E, which is already close to 80% if its current market cap. We estimate that the majority of this cash will be returned to shareholders in 2024, with the remainder re-invested in new clean fuels projects. We reiterate our Buy with a TP of EUR 29 p/s, based on our SOTP with a conservative 10% discount to reflect risks on deals and re-investments.
- David Vagman
- CFA
- Jason Kalamboussis
- Marc Hesselink
- CFA
- Marc Zwartsenburg
- CEFA
- Maxime Stranart
- Quirijn Mulder
- Stijn Demeester
- Thymen Rundberg
- Tijs Hollestelle
ING Benelux Favourites: ASM International, ASR, DEME Group, D'Ieteren,...
We refresh our ING Benelux Favourites list, adding Fugro and OCI and removing Azelis and Vopak. We still apply a fundamental bottom up approach in which we select stocks that provide the best (relative) upside within our Benelux coverage universe and these stocks need clear catalysts. Besides this, we screen the ING Benelux coverage in terms of earnings momentum, multiple contraction/expansion, and relative valuation vs historical averages in order to spot which companies have positive earnings ...
- David Vagman
- CFA
- Stijn Demeester
OCI N.V./Transformational deals not yet priced in/BUY
OCI has taken two major steps in its strategic review by divesting its 50% stake in Fertiglobe and US fertilizer asset IFCo, thereby crystallising net cash proceeds of +US$6.1bn or €27 per share. We believe the market has not yet priced in these two transformational deals, likely due to the weak LTM performance of RemainCo on the back of several adverse one-offs over the course 2023. With operational clouds clearing, a leaner structure geared towards the energy transition, and c.€20 per share of...
- Frank Claassen
OCI - Crystallizing cash
• Following the 2 multi-billion deals to sell both its stake in Fertiglobe and its Iowa fertilizer plant, we estimate that OCI will become net cash of close to USD 4bn in the course of 2024. • A significant part will be returned to shareholders, while leaving ample room to re-invest proceeds in clean fuels methanol and blue ammonia. • Our SOTP arrives at EUR 29 p/s, which still gives nice upside even after yesterday's share price jump, hence we reiterate our Buy rating.
- ING Helpdesk
- Frank Claassen
OCI - Selling Fertigobe stake, but not at a great price
• OCI will sell its entire 50% stake in Fertiglobe to Adnoc for USD 3.6bn. Although it is a good step in simplifying its structure, the price received is not great in our view. • The 18% share price jump of last Thursday, following rumors on a full-takeover of OCI, was almost completely reversed on this news last Friday. • Our SOTP still arrives at EUR 26 p/s and we stick to Hold as we see limited triggers following this news, also as price momentum for nitrogen fertilizers and metha...
- Frank Claassen
OCI - Also selling IFCO and at a nice price
• Although we were not that enthusiastic about the price received for its 50% stake in Fertiglobe, we are positive on the price received for the sale of its Iowa fertilizer plant for a total EV of USD 3.6bn (we had USD 2.9bn). • There will be significant room for cash returns at OCI in the near future.• Our SOTP now arrives at EUR 29 p/s (was EUR 26 p/s) and we therefore upgrade from Hold to Buy.
- ING Helpdesk
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
Atenor: EGM approves capital increase up to c.€161m at €5 issue price. Belgian telecoms: Proximus resells edpnet To Citymesh. Cofinimmo: French Cofinimur I portfolio – disposals completed. Kendrion: Start of a slowdown in industrial brakes. KPN: CMD 2027 targets in line with consensus, 2024 a bit on the low side. OCI: 3Q23 results weak on pricing, 4Q23 more optimistic. UCB: Moonlake fails to make a splash in PsA
- Frank Claassen
OCI - Uninspiring Q3, Q4 should be much better
• Q3-23 was sluggish due to impact of lower selling prices. The recent recovery in nitrogen fertilizer and methanol prices will only become visible as of Q4-23. • No final conclusions on strategic review yet. • Our SOTP still arrives at EUR 26 p/. Hold maintained
- David Vagman
- CFA
- Francesca Ferragina
- Marc Hesselink
- CFA
- Marc Zwartsenburg
- CEFA
- Maxime Stranart
- Quirijn Mulder
- Reg Watson
- CFA
- Stijn Demeester
- Thymen Rundberg
- Tijs Hollestelle
ING Benelux Conference London/Highlights of company meetings
Last week, on 5-7 September 2023, we hosted the annual ING Benelux Conference at our ING office, 8-10 Moorgate, London. This report provides an overview of the key topics discussed with each of the Benelux listed companies that attended the conference. The participants are listed below together with the board members representing each company.
APAML APERAM SA
BFIT BASIC-FIT NV
SBMO SBM OFFSHORE NV
FUR FUGRO NV CERT OF SHS
FAGR FAGRON SA
BAR BARCO NV
LOTB LOTUS BAKERIES NV
REC RECTICEL SA
ARCAD ARCADIS NV
AED AEDIFICA SA
AALB AALBERTS N.V.
AMG AMG ADVANCED METALLURGICAL GROUP N.V.
OCI OCI NV
MELE MELEXIS NV
TWEKA TKH GROUP N.V. CERT
AZE AZELIS GROUP NV
DEME DEME GROUP NV
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
Highlights ING Benelux Conference London 2023 - Aalberts, Aedifica, AMG, Aperam, Arcadis, Azelis, Barco, Basic-Fit, Brunel International, CM.com, DEME Group, Euronext, Fagron, Fugro, Kinepolis, Lotus Bakeries, Melexis, OCI, PostNL, Recticel, SBM Offshore, TKH Group, Vopak Gimv: Flemish government to sell its 27.8% stake Staffing Sector: French data weaker in July, August Outlook negative Results Calendar
APAML APERAM SA
BFIT BASIC-FIT NV
SBMO SBM OFFSHORE NV
FUR FUGRO NV CERT OF SHS
FAGR FAGRON SA
BAR BARCO NV
RAND RANDSTAD NV
LOTB LOTUS BAKERIES NV
REC RECTICEL SA
GIMB GIMV NV
ARCAD ARCADIS NV
AALB AALBERTS N.V.
AMG AMG ADVANCED METALLURGICAL GROUP N.V.
OCI OCI NV
MELE MELEXIS NV
TWEKA TKH GROUP N.V. CERT
AZE AZELIS GROUP NV
DEME DEME GROUP NV
- ING Helpdesk
- Frank Claassen
OCI - Q2 in line, strategic review still ongoing
• Q2-23 EBITDA was virtually in line with our expectations which had already been lowered to reflect the lower fertilizer (and methanol) prices. • No material changes in our estimates anticipated. Strategic review still ongoing.• Hold maintained, TP slightly increased from EUR 25 to EUR 26, based on 2024E SOTP, driven by recent uptick in share price of Fertiglobe.
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