reports
- Emmanuel Matot
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 28/03/2024
Hormis les Etats-Unis, les marchés de la construction devraient continuer à reculer en 2024 (-2% en Europe) avant de rebondir à la faveur d’une baisse des taux. Dans ce contexte, la différenciation entre les groupes se fera essentiellement sur leur capacité de résistance (mix géographique et prix/ coûts), l’allocation du capital (et situations spéciales) et leur valorisation. Face à cet environnement, nous relevons nos recommandations sur KONE (la modernisation comme relais de la Chin...
- Emmanuel Matot
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 03/28/2024
With the exception of the US, construction markets should continue to shrink in 2024 (-2% in Europe) before rebounding on the back of lower interest rates. Against this backdrop, groups will be differentiated mainly on the basis of their resilience (geographical and price/cost mix), capital allocation (and special situations) and valuation. In this context, we are upgrading our recommendations on KONE (modernisation as an alternative source of growth to China) and Holcim (a substantia...
- Emmanuel Matot
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 28/03/2024
Hormis les Etats-Unis, les marchés de la construction devraient continuer à reculer en 2024 (-2% en Europe) avant de rebondir à la faveur d’une baisse des taux. Dans ce contexte, la différenciation entre les groupes se fera essentiellement sur leur capacité de résistance (mix géographique et prix/ coûts), l’allocation du capital (et situations spéciales) et leur valorisation. Face à cet environnement, nous relevons nos recommandations sur KONE (la modernisation comme relais de la Chin...
- Cor Kluis
ASR : Good Solvency, they are ready, CMD June to give more confidence
>Conclusion: Good Solvency, they are ready, CMD June to give more confidence - The Solvency position is quite strong at a 215% S2 ratio pro forma, making it ready for a potential SBB. a.s.r. expects an OCG of about € 1.1bn in 2024, growing to circa € 1.2bn in 2025, and potentially growing to € 1.3bn in 2026/2027, not higher than this. The capital return policy will be updated at their CMD on 27 June resulting in an expected circa € 175m recurring SBB’s going forward. ...
- Marc Zwartsenburg
- CEFA
ING Benelux Favourites/Weekly performance and valuation update
In this publication we update the performance of our ING Benelux Favourites list as well as all valuation and ranking tables for our coverage universe. Performance on the front page is dated from the 26 April 2023, while historical performance is included on the second page. The methodology for our favourites selection is based on a bottom-up approach with a focus on absolute performance with clear near-term triggers. It is a rolling list, ie, stocks can enter/exit whenever we think opportune.
- Chaima Ferrandon
- Charlotte Vaisse
- Jean-Baptiste Rouphael
- Michael Foundoukidis
- Sven Edelfelt
LHN LAFARGEHOLCIM LTD.
BMW BAYERISCHE MOTOREN WERKE AG
1COV COVESTRO AG
GET GETLINK SE
VIE VEOLIA ENVIRONNEMENT SA
DGE DIAGEO PLC
RNO RENAULT SA
MTX MTU AERO ENGINES AG
FGR EIFFAGE SA
DAI DAIMLER AG
ADEN ADECCO GROUP AG
IAG INTERNATIONAL CONSOLIDATED AIRLINES GROUP SA
ELE ENDESA S.A.
GN GN STORE NORD A/S
VOW3 VOLKSWAGEN AG PREF
EDW EDP RENOVAVEIS SA
AMS AMADEUS IT GROUP SA CLASS A
KGX KION GROUP AG
ASRNL ASR NEDERLAND NV
MONC MONCLER SPA
PRY PRYSMIAN S.P.A.
WLN WORLDLINE SA
NN NN GROUP N.V.
MERLIN MERLIN PROPERTIES SOCIMI S.A.
ABI ANHEUSER-BUSCH INBEV SA/NV
ARGX ARGEN-X SE
STLA STELLANTIS N.V.
UMG UNIVERSAL MUSIC GROUP NV
SHUR SHURGARD SELF STORAGE LIMITED
UN0 UNIPER SE
- Chaima Ferrandon
- Charlotte Vaisse
- Jean-Baptiste Rouphael
- Michael Foundoukidis
- Sven Edelfelt
LHN LAFARGEHOLCIM LTD.
BMW BAYERISCHE MOTOREN WERKE AG
1COV COVESTRO AG
GET GETLINK SE
VIE VEOLIA ENVIRONNEMENT SA
DGE DIAGEO PLC
RNO RENAULT SA
MTX MTU AERO ENGINES AG
FGR EIFFAGE SA
DAI DAIMLER AG
ADEN ADECCO GROUP AG
IAG INTERNATIONAL CONSOLIDATED AIRLINES GROUP SA
ELE ENDESA S.A.
GN GN STORE NORD A/S
VOW3 VOLKSWAGEN AG PREF
EDW EDP RENOVAVEIS SA
AMS AMADEUS IT GROUP SA CLASS A
KGX KION GROUP AG
ASRNL ASR NEDERLAND NV
MONC MONCLER SPA
PRY PRYSMIAN S.P.A.
WLN WORLDLINE SA
NN NN GROUP N.V.
MERLIN MERLIN PROPERTIES SOCIMI S.A.
ABI ANHEUSER-BUSCH INBEV SA/NV
ARGX ARGEN-X SE
STLA STELLANTIS N.V.
UMG UNIVERSAL MUSIC GROUP NV
SHUR SHURGARD SELF STORAGE LIMITED
UN0 UNIPER SE
- Cor Kluis
ASR : Solvency better, OCG in line, non life somewhat less but premium...
>Conclusion:S2 better, OCG in line, non life somewhat less but premium increases - The Solvency ratio (S2) was better than expected. The 2H23 capital generation was in line and a.s.r. will likely marginally reduce their OCG guidance as the recently announced the bank sale they have to remove from this. The 2H23 non life result were marginally less but they increased the premiums well and more premium increases are to come. It is positive that 52% of their real estate ...
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
AB InBev: A Bit Light, Bud. Ackermans & van Haaren: Core units AM/Banks and DEME. Adecco: Beats by 17% on 4Q23 EBITA; outlook solid. Air France-KLM: Peak reached already? Allfunds Group PLC: MoreFunds. ASR: 2H23 squeezed between two CMDs, no surprises. Belgian telecoms: Digi to launch convergent offers in Belgium. CM.com: FY23 results, EBITDA positive in 2H23. Fugro: Strong? Excellent!. NN Group: FY23 better, modest 2025 targets, capital distribution strategy better. Recticel...
- Guy Sips
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Kristof Samoy
- Thomas Couvreur
- Thomas Vranken
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
- ING Helpdesk
- Marc Zwartsenburg
- CEFA
ING Benelux Favourites/Weekly performance and valuation update
In this publication we update the performance of our ING Benelux Favourites list as well as all valuation and ranking tables for our coverage universe. Performance on the front page is dated from the 26 April 2023, while historical performance is included on the second page. The methodology for our favourites selection is based on a bottom-up approach with a focus on absolute performance with clear near-term triggers. It is a rolling list, ie, stocks can enter/exit whenever we think opportune.
- Jason Kalamboussis
ASR/KNAB sold, AEGON's stake next, then SBB/BUY
ASR has announced the long-anticipated sale of KNAB Bank to BAWAG Group for €510m, with an additional €80m at a later date (2025/26) to transfer the management of the servicing of mortgages. This is above our €543m valuation and gives ASR management the capital flexibility to offset the Woekerpolis settlement, reinforce Solvency, participate in an AEGON partial stake in ASR sale and resume capital returns to shareholders. Another positive step in the right direction; reiterate BUY, with a margin...
- Bruno Cavalier
- Jerôme Bodin
ROG ROCHE HOLDING LTD
SSAB A SSAB AB CLASS A
ABB ABB LTD.
VIV VIVENDI SE
G ASSICURAZIONI GENERALI S.P.A.
SAN SANOFI
SOLB SOLVAY SA
HM B H&M HENNES & MAURITZ AB CLASS B
ASRNL ASR NEDERLAND NV
SKF B SKF AB CLASS B
INGA ING GROEP NV
LDO LEONARDO SPA
SHL SIEMENS HEALTHINEERS AG
DSY DASSAULT SYSTEMES SA
SHEL SHELL PLC
- Bruno Cavalier
- Jerôme Bodin
ROG ROCHE HOLDING LTD
SSAB A SSAB AB CLASS A
ABB ABB LTD.
VIV VIVENDI SE
G ASSICURAZIONI GENERALI S.P.A.
SAN SANOFI
SOLB SOLVAY SA
HM B H&M HENNES & MAURITZ AB CLASS B
ASRNL ASR NEDERLAND NV
SKF B SKF AB CLASS B
INGA ING GROEP NV
LDO LEONARDO SPA
SHL SIEMENS HEALTHINEERS AG
SHEL SHELL PLC
- Cor Kluis
ASR : Sale of bank as promised, faster and more positive +15pp for S2 ...
>Conclusion: sale bank as promised, faster and more positive +15pp for S2 ratio - The sale of Aegon bank exactly as promised strategically, and it is better than expected as it has been done faster and for a higher price than expected. The solvency enhancement is +15pp for S2 ratio. We are positive on this transaction and expect and outperformance today. A.s.r. remains our top pick Outperform recommendation. Selling price for bank higher, more positive fo...
- Guy Sips
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Jacob Mekhael
- Kristof Samoy
- Thomas Couvreur
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
ASR: Sale of KNAB to Austrian BAWAG for €510m opens up capital options. BE Semiconductor Industries: Peer K&S provides weak 1Q24 guidance. Corbion: Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose. DWS: Solid. Euronav: Solid year-end ahead of transformation. Philips: Peer Healthineers reports 1Q24 update. Shell plc: Strong end to FY23
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
Ageas: Executive Board changes: more members, more women, new faces. ASR: Remains in ING Benelux Favourites list, Look beyond 2023 results to 2024-25. Philips: 4Q23 preview - further recovery offset by recall overhang. Sofina: NAV underperformed materially in 2023. TomTom: 4Q23 preview; cautious on growth
- David Vagman
- CFA
- Jason Kalamboussis
- Marc Hesselink
- CFA
- Marc Zwartsenburg
- CEFA
- Maxime Stranart
- Quirijn Mulder
- Stijn Demeester
- Thymen Rundberg
- Tijs Hollestelle
ING Benelux Favourites: ASM International, ASR, DEME Group, D'Ieteren,...
We refresh our ING Benelux Favourites list, adding Fugro and OCI and removing Azelis and Vopak. We still apply a fundamental bottom up approach in which we select stocks that provide the best (relative) upside within our Benelux coverage universe and these stocks need clear catalysts. Besides this, we screen the ING Benelux coverage in terms of earnings momentum, multiple contraction/expansion, and relative valuation vs historical averages in order to spot which companies have positive earnings ...
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