reports
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
Ageas: More bidders for ESURE UK ASR: Completion of KNAB sale, starting extra SBB D'Ieteren: Holding financing more costly, 2024 guidance (excluding financing) reassures Ebusco: Released from obligation to deliver 76 buses PostNL: 3Q24 below, FY24 outlook down, mail weak, parcels stronger; CEO steps down Sif Group: Preview - getting ready for 2025 Staffing: US temp volume weaker in October, Aug/Sep revised down, NFP jobs miss
- Cor Kluis
ASR : Many options to use the material excess capital at an attractive...
We estimate that a.s.r.’s excess capital will rise materially to about € 1.45bn by end 2025, which is 16% of its market capitalisation. We understand that a.s.r. is not yet announcing material extra capital returns as there are still two potential material acquisitions Achmea Life and Allianz NL, which could increase the OCG/share by +20% and +10% respectively. We expect clarity on the Achmea Life case before mid-2025. We increase our target price to € 61.5 (from € 60). - >§ph...
- David Vagman
- CFA
- Francesca Ferragina
- Hans D’Haese
- Jason Kalamboussis
- Javier Campos Unda
- Marc Hesselink
- CFA
- Marc Zwartsenburg
- CEFA
- Maxime Stranart
- Quirijn Mulder
- Reg Watson
- CFA
- Stijn Demeester
- Thymen Rundberg
- Tijs Hollestelle
ING Benelux Favourites/ASM, ASR, D'Ieteren, EVS, Fugro, Randstad, SBM ...
We refresh our ING Benelux Favourites list. We still apply a fundamental bottom up approach in which we select stocks that provide the best (relative) upside within our Benelux coverage universe and these stocks need clear catalysts. Besides this, we screen our ING Benelux coverage universe on some key investment themes that are topical and which could affect earnings potential and thus a stock's share price performance: (1) interest rate/refinancing opportunity in a lower rates environment; (2)...
- Jason Kalamboussis
ASR/Patience, its coming/BUY
ASR remains on our ING Benelux Favourites list (see our report ING Benelux Favourites, 27 September 2024). As the integration of AEGON NL progresses, ASR is positioning to capture an increased market share in the Dutch life market as the pension reform picks up speed. This is core for ASR to instil growth in the long term (we assume growth of only 1% of OCG over 2028-31F). While the reduction of AEGON's stake in ASR remains a brake, we still believe that there is upside in the low-balled share b...
- Cor Kluis
ASR : Pro forma Solvency and excess capital better, operationally 1H24...
>Conclusion: Pro forma Solvency and excess capital better, operationally in line - End 1H24 the pro forma group Solvency 2 ratio was with 196% higher than expected as a result of more benefits from the Knab Aegon bank sale. As a result the excess capital is about € 300m higher which is positive for the for excess capital adjusted FCF yield, which is about 14%. We have a good S2 ratio of 212% for end 2025. In 1H24 the non-life life result was good with above market ave...
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
ASR: 1H small beat, KNAB add-on to Solvency 2 higher. Avantium: Down to the wire. Flow Traders: Pump up the volume. Greenyard: 1Q24/25 preview. Kendrion: Navigating difficult end markets. Montea: Solid results with no surprises, guidance reiterated. NEPI Rockcastle: Guidance raised, M&A opportunities on the radar. Tessenderlo: 1H24 Adj. EBITDA miss of 5%, lower FY guidance
- Thomas Couvreur
- Thomas Vranken
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
- Cor Kluis
ASR : Pro forma Solvency 2 ratio better, non-life marginally better, O...
>Conclusion: Pro forma Solvency better, non-life marginally better, OCC in line - End 1H24 the pro forma group Solvency 2 ratio was with 196% higher than expected by more benefits from the Knab Aegon bank sale. In 1H24 the non-life combined ratio was marginally better than expected. The H1 OCC capital generation was in line, and it was good that there were no changes at all on their future OCC. A.s.r. is benefitting from the rising NL house prices, and there is a high...
- Emna Ben Bdira
- Maxime Kogge
- Emna Ben Bdira
- Maxime Kogge
- Cor Kluis
ASR : Solid 1H24 results and healthy non-life results
>Conclusion: Solid 1H24 results and healthy non-life results - We expect a.s.r. to present that its Solvency 2 (S2) ratio rose to 180% (being 193% pro forma for bank sale) by end 1H24. For the Organic Capital Creation (OCC) we expect € 643m in 1H24. Operationally the non-life results are likely to be healthy with a combined ratio (COR) of 91.5% for P&C and disability. In our recent a.s.r. note (20 pages) ‘CMD shows back to life growth, buy-out confidence, good excess ...
- Cor Kluis
ASR : CMD shows back to life growth, buy-out confidence, good excess c...
The CMD of a.s.r. gives us more confidence in our Outperform recommendation. Key is that their main business ‘life insurance’ goes from a small declining OCG to a stable/growing OCG going forward. A.s.r. increased its OCG target partly because it has confidence to include pension buy-outs as well. Solvency wise a.s.r. has the benefit that the coming years the unique Aegon-integration benefits and EIOPA review (in total +27pp on S2 ratio) are more than sufficient to fund the capit...
- Stephane Beyazian
HEIA HEINEKEN NV
O2D TELEFONICA DEUTSCHLAND HOLDING AG
ETL EUTELSAT COMMUNICATIONS SA
PROX PROXIMUS SA DE DROIT PUBLIC
KPN ROYAL KPN NV
ORA ORANGE SA
ABB ABB LTD.
SAND SANDVIK AB
EN BOUYGUES SA
UTDI UNITED INTERNET AG
GAMA GAMMA COMMUNICATIONS
BRBY BURBERRY GROUP PLC
RAND RANDSTAD NV
DTE DEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
HM B H&M HENNES & MAURITZ AB CLASS B
MOCORP METSO OUTOTEC OYJ
ASRNL ASR NEDERLAND NV
INW INFRASTRUTTURE WIRELESS ITALIANE S.P.A.
TIT TELECOM ITALIA S.P.A.
CLNX CELLNEX TELECOM S.A.
FNTN FREENET AG
VOD VODAFONE GROUP PLC
OBEL ORANGE BELGIUM SA
TEF TELEFONICA SA
NFN NFON AG
DRI 1&1 DRILLISCH AG
ERF EUROFINS SCIENTIFIC SOCIETE EUROPEENNE
EPI A EPIROC AB
NOVO B NOVO NORDISK A/S
- Stephane Beyazian
HEIA HEINEKEN NV
O2D TELEFONICA DEUTSCHLAND HOLDING AG
ETL EUTELSAT COMMUNICATIONS SA
PROX PROXIMUS SA DE DROIT PUBLIC
KPN ROYAL KPN NV
ORA ORANGE SA
ABB ABB LTD.
SAND SANDVIK AB
EN BOUYGUES SA
UTDI UNITED INTERNET AG
GAMA GAMMA COMMUNICATIONS
BRBY BURBERRY GROUP PLC
RAND RANDSTAD NV
DTE DEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
HM B H&M HENNES & MAURITZ AB CLASS B
MOCORP METSO OUTOTEC OYJ
ASRNL ASR NEDERLAND NV
INW INFRASTRUTTURE WIRELESS ITALIANE S.P.A.
TIT TELECOM ITALIA S.P.A.
CLNX CELLNEX TELECOM S.A.
FNTN FREENET AG
VOD VODAFONE GROUP PLC
OBEL ORANGE BELGIUM SA
TEF TELEFONICA SA
NFN NFON AG
DRI 1&1 DRILLISCH AG
ERF EUROFINS SCIENTIFIC SOCIETE EUROPEENNE
EPI A EPIROC AB
NOVO B NOVO NORDISK A/S
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
ASR: CMD - Cumulative SBB at €525m for 2024-26, Strong Pension buy-out outlook. Econocom: Possible interest in part of Atos IT infra after Onepoint withdraws. Proximus: Proximus Opal reportedly looking for a Nasdaq listing in 24-36 months. Randstad: 2Q24F results due 23 July - no recovery yet, conversion under pressure. Xior Student Housing: €80m CIK to buy 2 assets at a 8.4% yield
- Cor Kluis
ASR : CMD, they deliver what they promised, targets in line with expec...
>Conclusion: CMD: they deliver what they promised, OCG, SBB and Solvency, and COR targets all in line with our expectations - At the CMD a.s.r. delivered what they promised, a good solid statement. The updated OCG, SBB and Solvency ratio, and COR targets all in line with our expectations. It also shows that a.s.r. even incl. the € 500m SBB until end 2026 will have about 1.2bn excess capital end 2026 giving them room for growth opportunities, and or additional capital ...
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Michiel Declercq
- Thomas Couvreur
- Wim Lewi
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
Alfen: Profit warning. ASR: CMD expectations, capital accumulation substantial in 2025-26. Barco: Co-CEO Charles Beauduin steps down. Belgian telecoms: Orange Belgium prepares for battle ahead of Digi arrival. D'Ieteren: PHE day feedback, ambition to double in size. Exor: Increases its stake in Philips to 17.51% Gimv: Investing in Infrastructure, optional dividend terms. Just Eat Takeaway.com: DoorDash reportedly interested in Deliveroo. SBM Offshore: Preparating for two new hull...
- Bruno Cavalier
- Jean Danjou
- Jean-Baptiste Rouphael
- Thomas Zlowodzki
- Yan Derocles
- Bruno Cavalier
- Jean Danjou
- Jean-Baptiste Rouphael
- Thomas Zlowodzki
- Yan Derocles
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 10/06/2024
En ligne avec les sondages, les élections au Parlement européen ont abouti à la déroute de la liste macroniste (14.5% des voix), loin derrière le Rassemblement national (31.5%). En réaction, le président français a dissous l’Assemblée nationale. Ce droit n’avait pas été exercé depuis 1997. Des élections anticipées auront lieu les 30 juin et 7 juillet. Dans une campagne extrêmement courte, tout laisse à croire que le RN sera le premier parti de la future Assemblée. En toute logique, le...
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