HEADLINES: • Pepco Group: structurally challenged (downgraded to HOLD) • Air Astana Group: 4Q24 – good, at first glance; dividend surprises positively • CEZ: takeaways from the 4Q24 earnings call NEGATIVE • Allegro: key takeaways from the 4Q24 call POSITIVE • Shoper: takeaways from the post-4Q24 prelims management call NEUTRAL • Polish banks: receive maximum dividend payout ratio letters from the PFSA – no surprises NEUTRAL • Mo-BRUK: unfavourable ruling results in closure of Wałbrzych branch (2...
We have downgraded our rating for Pepco Group (Pepco) to HOLD, from Buy, cutting our price target (PT) to PLN 17.6/share, from PLN 31.5. The CMD did not bring any intel on a credible path of overcoming the key challenges in its core operations, going forward, in our view. At the same time, we see the company’s local competitors accelerating their store rollouts massively, and Pepco’s e-commerce strategy as vague. We also see a demographic downturn forging forward in Poland, including GUS forecas...
HEADLINES: • BIM: strong operating results in 4Q24 POSITIVE • Bank Handlowy: 4Q24 results do not bring much new to the table NEUTRAL • Sok Marketler Ticaret: recovery in operating results masked by bottom-line loss in 4Q24 NEUTRAL • GEVORKYAN: 4Q24 results – lower than expected, due to one-off expenses NEUTRAL • Benefit Systems: key takeaways from the call on the MAC Group acquisition in Türkiye POSITIVE • Grupa Pracuj: PLN 28.6m revaluation of Beamery to harm 2024 results NEGATIVE • Budimex: an...
HEADLINES: • Jahez: slightly positive 4Q24 results – beat on adjusted EBITDA, miss on net revenue POSITIVE • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (3-9 March) • Auto Partner: February sales growth decelerates to a mere 2% yoy NEGATIVE • PGE: signs PLN 1.26bn agreement to construct energy storage facility NEUTRAL • Aegean Airlines: January-February traffic up 9% yoy NEUTRAL • Turkish Airlines: traffic growth slowed in February NEUTRAL • Turkish food retail: Competition Board launches investigation...
HEADLINES: • OTP Bank: 4Q24 results in line with expectations; guiding cautiously for 2025E operating performance, and HUF 964 DPS in play NEUTRAL • Kalekim: strong 4Q24 IAS 29 results POSITIVE • Pepco Group: key takeaways from the Capital Markets Day NEUTRAL • Türkiye macro: CBT cuts again by 250bps • PCF Group: decides to phase out VR games publishing business NEUTRAL • Grupa Pracuj: acquires 65.5% stake in Kadromierz for PLN 20m NEUTRAL • National Bank of Greece: dismisses speculation over an...
HEADLINES: • Baltic Classifieds Group: good opportunity to act (upgraded to BUY) • Kalekim: strong results in 4Q24 POSITIVE • Migros: a good set of operating results for 4Q24 POSITIVE • PGE: preliminary 4Q24 EBITDA 11% above our forecast and 27% above the consensus POSITIVE • Pepco Group: strategy update ahead of Capital Markets Day – focus on Pepco banner and CEE region; EUR 200m buyback in 2025-27E; Poundland dragging on FY25E EBITDA guidance POSITIVE • Banca Transilvania: 2025E guidance analy...
HEADLINES: • GEK Terna: it’s a new dawn, it’s a new day, it’s a new GEK (BUY – transfer of coverage) • Alior Bank: solid 4Q24; dividend guidance implies 10% yield; market awaiting strategic update, due on 25 March POSITIVE • Coca-Cola Icecek: significant miss in the 4Q24 results NEGATIVE • Pegasus Airlines: 4Q24 – better RASK, higher CASKX, decent guidance • OMV: agrees on Borealis, Borouge and Nova Chemicals deal with ADNOC POSITIVE • Alpha Services and Holdings: Paulson entity offers 57m share...
EME Equity Market – February 2025 Poland outperforms, again; Türkiye declines. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced by 3.1% in EUR terms and 2.9% mom in USD terms in February. The Polish WIG20 was, once again, the best performer, adding 7.3% mom in February; followed by the Czech PX Index (+6.1% mom); while Greece (+3.8% mom), Hungary (+3.5% mom) and Romania (+3.0% mom) all reported rather similar performances. The Turkish ISE30 was the worst performer, declining 4.5% mom.
HEADLINES: • Bank Pekao: solid 4Q24 results; PLN 12.6 DPS in line with our expectations; market awaiting strategy update and answers to Alior Bank purchase POSITIVE • Siauliu Bankas: 4Q24 bottom-line beat; guidance upgrade means short-term pain, but long-term prospects NEGATIVE • Brisa: 4Q24 net profit beats on low tax rate POSITIVE • CTP: 4Q24 results – ends the year at the bottom of its FFO guidance NEUTRAL • OTE: 4Q24 results review – 2% yoy adjusted EBITDA growth, in line with expectations; ...
HEADLINES: • CEZ: Green Deal and grievances (downgraded to SELL) • Teknosa: weak set of results in 4Q24 NEGATIVE • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (17-23 February) • MOL: 4Q results and 2025E guidance • EME Strategy: FTSE GEIS March 2025 Semi-Annual Review • Bank of Cyprus: launch of share buyback programme • Benefit Systems: decides on PLN 1bn five-year bond issue NEUTRAL • 4iG: 4Q24E preview – 20% yoy reported EBITDA increase expected (due on 28 February) • Sphera Group: 12% yoy EBITDA de...
We downgrade CEZ to SELL (from Hold), with a new 12M price target (PT) of CZK 823/share, or downside of 19%. CEZ is beginning another generation capex cycle, which (unlike the planned, but so-far modest, spending for RES) is for gas to coal switching, so is largely unavoidable. Taking a more sober assessment of new RES capacities, power volumes will be declining as, assuming the lignite phase out goes as planned, the new capex will largely only replicate the existing capacity, particularly that ...
HEADLINES: • Ford Otosan: weak set of results in 4Q24 NEGATIVE • Tupras: 4Q24 results below expectations, but dividend proposal generous NEUTRAL • CCC: key takeaways from the 4Q24 conference; PLN 1.4bn capital increase around the corner • Auto Partner: preliminary 4Q24 EBIT 27% above our forecast on better margins POSITIVE • Footshop: 4Q24 broadly in line; 2025E management guidance implies promising year ahead POSITIVE • Pegasus Airlines: a strong start to 2025, with January ASK up 19% POSITIVE ...
HEADLINES: • Solutions by STC: strong 4Q24 results POSITIVE • Akcansa: 4Q24 financial results review NEGATIVE • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (10-16 February) • CCC: PLN 1.4bn settlement for minorities at Modivo; capital increase around the corner NEUTRAL • Cyfrowy Polsat: to use the proceeds from the Asseco stake sale to repay debt NEUTRAL • AmRest: 4Q24E preview – 7% EBITDA growth expected (due on 27 February) • Dino: 4Q24E preview – 10% yoy EBITDA growth expected (due on 27 February) •...
HEADLINES: • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (3-9 February) • Eurocash: preliminary 4Q24 EBITDA flat yoy, but 10% above the consensus POSITIVE • PGE: PLN 2.4bn write-down in conventional generation to be recognised in the FY24 results NEUTRAL • Eurobank Ergasias Services: Fairfax shareholding drops to 32.9% NEUTRAL • Magyar Telekom: 4Q24E preview – 16% yoy growth in EBITDA expected (due on 25 February) • Auto Partner: 4Q24E preview – EBITDA almost flat yoy (due on 15 April) • Inter Cars: 4Q...
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