Domestic demand has been more resilient than expected: Following a record-breaking year in 2024, the Turkish automotive market maintained its strength so far in 2025, with 5M25 growth reaching 4% y/y. Despite the high base and tighter financial conditions, demand remained resilient, supported by not only stable exchange rates and improved vehicle availability, but also the traction of affordable EVs (electric vehicles) that has 10% special consumption tax rate vs. ICE (internal combustion engine...
We believe that the merger of OMV's and ADNOC's polyolefins businesses represents a transformative change for OMV. By becoming an equal owner of the world’s fourth-largest polyolefins player with access to low-cost feedstock, a high share of innovative products and world-class technical capabilities, OMV not only accelerates its 2030 growth strategy in the chemicals segment, but also enables its shareholders to benefit from the strong earnings growth and significant synergy potential of a larger...
HEADLINES: • cyber_Folks: e-commerce first – a new chapter begins (stays BUY) • Shoper: new investor, new opportunities (stays BUY) • Vercom: solid growth, boosted potentially by M&A (upgraded to BUY) • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (2-8 June) • Auto Partner: May sales disappoint, with limited 8% yoy growth NEGATIVE • 11 bit studios: launch trailer of The Alters and new Moonlighter 2 trailer presented during PC Gaming Show NEUTRAL
EME Equity Market – May 2025 EME indices mostly in the green in May, apart from Türkiye. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 3.6% mom in EUR and USD terms. The Greek ASE index (+7.8% mom) was the best performer, followed by the Czech PX (+6.6% mom) and Romanian BET indices (+5.0% mom), the Hungarian BUX (+4.0% mom) and the Polish WIG20 (+2.0% mom; all in EUR terms). The Turkish ISE30 Index was, again, the worst performer, with a more modest decline (-1.4% mom in EUR terms) this time.
HEADLINES: • Middle Eastern oil services: time to switch horses (ADNOC Drilling downgraded to HOLD, Arabian Drilling upgraded to BUY) • Poland macro: Presidential election – final results and implications • 4iG: 1Q25 results review – 11% yoy increase in reported EBITDA, in line with our estimate NEUTRAL • GTC: 1Q25 – some notes, post the results • PCF Group: suspension of development works on Gemini and Bifrost, over 60 people to be laid off NEGATIVE • OMV: to sell stake in Ghasha sour gas proje...
Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/CN)C; Target price of £0.70 per share: Gearing-up for acquisitions? – 1Q25 production was 4,085 boe/d with no horizontal wells drilled in the period. RCE is more mature than CN and while no drilling has taken place at RCE, the decline rate between 4Q24 and 1Q25 was only ~5%. 1Q25 Production was constrained by increased water production preventing the company increasing the speed of the pumps at some of its producing wells. The increased amount of produced water increase...
HEADLINES: • Bank Handlowy: sells retail operations, sets 2027E ROE target of 19% • Asseco Poland: 1Q25 review – net profit up 9% yoy, in line with the consensus; 2025 backlog up 10% yoy POSITIVE • PGE: full 1Q25 results in line with the preliminaries NEUTRAL • Huuuge Games: 1Q25 adjusted EBITDA in line with our expectations NEUTRAL • Diagnostyka: 1Q25 results in line with expectations NEUTRAL • Benefit Systems: 1Q25 earnings call takeaways – very optimistic on MAC Group POSITIVE • Grupa Pracuj:...
HEADLINES: • Polish food retail: turning the corner (initiating on Zabka with a BUY, Eurocash and Jeronimo stay BUY, Dino stays SELL) • Benefit Systems: 1Q25 adjusted EBIT up 14% yoy, 10% above our forecast POSITIVE • Grupa Pracuj: 1Q25 results – adjusted EBITDA up 11% yoy, in line with our forecast, 4% above the consensus POSITIVE • Wirtualna Polska: 1Q25 results review – adjusted EBITDA up 2% yoy, 2% above the consensus NEUTRAL • Athens Exchange Group: 1Q25 results in line with expectations NE...
HEADLINES: • Gentoo Media: one step back, two steps forward (stays BUY) • Colt CZ Group SE: 1Q25 results – strong beat, no change in guidance POSITIVE • Mo-BRUK: 1Q25 earnings call – management optimistic on 2H25E, but we see challenges NEGATIVE • Cyfrowy Polsat: key takeaways from the 1Q25 earnings call NEUTRAL • Tauron: 1Q25 conference call highlights NEUTRAL • Elbit Systems: raises USD 512m on the Nasdaq POSITIVE • Athens Exchange Group: 1Q25E preview (due on 26 May) • Motor Oil Hellas: 1Q25E...
HEADLINES: • Mo-BRUK: 1Q25 EBITDA 7% below our forecast, but a substantial 24% miss vs. the consensus NEGATIVE • Doosan Skoda Power: weak 1Q25 – EBITDA down 70% yoy NEGATIVE • Cyfrowy Polsat: 1Q25 results review – adjusted EBITDA up 5% yoy, in line with the consensus NEUTRAL • Cyfrowy Polsat: Liechtenstein court dismisses Zygmunt Solorz's lawsuit against his children POSITIVE • Pepco Group: 1H25 slightly below expectations on worsening Poundland; lfl improvement at Pepco; another EUR 234m impair...
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