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ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Aperam: In-line 1Q24 EBITDA, FCF marked by WC build, 2Q24 guidance below consensus. Ayvens: Taking the brakes off. BAM: Not the best start to the year. bpost: 1Q24 in line with consensus but beat vs INGF, no outlook yet. Brunel International: good set of 1Q24 results – 5% beat on EBIT, comforting trends. B&S Group: Preview - should be a non-event. DEME Group: Preview - should be a non-event. D'Ieteren: Febiac April registrations flat YoY, VW brands up 8.4%. GBL: NAV per share in ...

Guy Sips ... (+11)
  • Guy Sips
  • Jacob Mekhael
  • Kristof Samoy
  • Lynn Hautekeete
  • Michiel Declercq
  • Sharad Kumar S.P
  • Thibault Leneeuw
  • Thomas Couvreur
  • Thomas Vranken
  • Wim Hoste
  • Wim Lewi

Dynamic Top Pick List Update May 2024 : Adding Fugro, Removing Arcadis

In this May edition of our Dynamic Top Pick List we replace Arcadis by Fugro. Arcadis continues to deliver consistently on its promises and is working hard to realise its 2026 margin targets via cross selling, leveraging its global engineering platform and numerous self-help measures. In spite of this we remove Arcadis from our Dynamic Top Pick List as the recent & strong share price performance leaves little room for further short term triggers As a service provider to the energy industry, Fu...

Kristof Samoy ... (+5)
  • Kristof Samoy
  • Michiel Declercq
  • Sharad Kumar S.P
  • Thomas Vranken
  • Wim Hoste
Thomas Vranken
  • Thomas Vranken

UCB Model update: UCB's five growth drivers into the next decade

UCB is entering a next stage of growth as it turns the page on the loss of exclusivity of several of its mature assets. The new chapter will focus strongly on five growth drivers: Bimzelx, Rystiggo, Zilbrysq, Fintepla and Evenity. Jointly, these assets could deliver significant topline growth and margin improvements in the coming years. We have conducted an extensive update of our model to incorporate these new dynamics. Our DCF-based valuation points to a fair value of € 143 per share (previous...

Thomas Vranken
  • Thomas Vranken

UCB Bimzelx launch tracker

Our Bimzelx launch tracker tool keeps an eye on the ongoing commercialization of Bimzelx in the US by looking at total prescriptions (TRx). Our latest figure for week 22 points to 898 TRx, down 2% versus last week's result, and up 11% on a 4-week rolling basis. Altogether, we see a smooth ramp-up for Bimzelx in its first months since launch.

Sharad Kumar S.P
  • Sharad Kumar S.P

Quest for Growth Q1 FY24: Starting The Year With A €1.4m Net Loss

During 1Q24, Quest for Growth booked a net loss of –€1.4m while return on equity for the period was -1.0%. NAVps remained stable at €7.4ps (vs. €7.46ps during FY23-end). Within quoted assets, ABO Wind returned +42.0%, Tubize returned +25% and EVS Broadcasting returned +15% during 1Q24. Tubize and EVS are the largest positions in the portfolio as of 1Q24-end. On the other hand, LEM Holdings fell -18%, Melexis fell -18% and Equasens fell -16%; QfG added to their Equasens position during 1Q24. Har...

Joren Van Aken
  • Joren Van Aken

Quest For Growth - Q1-24: No dividend yet

Q1-24 NAV came in at EUR 7.44 p/s but already pre-announced.Loss of EUR -1.4m in Q1, despite a strong performance of the listed portfolio, implies that QfG still needs to recover about EUR 7.7m or ~+5.5% before it can pay out a dividend.We estimate today's NAV to be EUR 7.44 p/s, implying an elevated discount of 38.5%. Unfortunately, QfG's discount is highly dependent on whether it can pay out a dividend. At the moment, this does not yet seem to be in the cards and hence we expect it t...

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Azelis: Strong margin performance in weak trading results in 3% EBITA beat. BE Semiconductor Industries: 1Q24 results; prolonged downcycle. Coca-Cola Europacific Partners plc: Messy but good. DWS: Record breaking. Flow Traders: Crypto Kings. Fugro: Here we go again. Kinepolis: Weak start to the year, but a bit better than feared. UCB: Changes in the group executive committee. Unilever: Heading in the right direction. Vonovia: Disposal of 4,500 apartments for €700m. Wolters Kl...

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Kendrion: Preview - no recovery yet, lower costs in IB. PostNL: Preview 1Q24F, consensus released, comfort on parcels. UCB: Bimzelx now approved in four indications in Europe

Wim Lewi
  • Wim Lewi

Retail Estates Out of Town stands its ground in an online world

In recent decades, OOT stores have become an integral part of the BE/NL retail sector ranging from large supermarkets to specialized retail chains. Traffic congestion around retail parks and the negative impact on inner city retail have become concerns, but OOT stores and retail parks remain a popular shopping destination. They withstood the e-commerce acceleration during COVID. In this note we discuss how the OOT segment adapted to the new online reality and managed to maintain high occupancy r...

Thomas Vranken
  • Thomas Vranken

UCB Bimzelx launch tracker

Our Bimzelx launch tracker tool keeps an eye on the ongoing commercialization of Bimzelx in the US by looking at total prescriptions (TRx). Our latest figure for week 21 points to 914 TRx, up 3% in a holiday week versus last week's result, which was overreported after the resolution of the hack attack, and up 15% on a 4-week rolling basis. Altogether, we see a smooth ramp-up for Bimzelx in its first months since launch.

Thomas Vranken
  • Thomas Vranken

UCB Bimzelx gets EU nod for HS

UCB obtained EU regulatory approval for Bimzelx in HS, marking the first global approval in this hard-to-treat indication. Based on the Phase 3 data, we see a strong reason to play for Bimzelx in the HS space and anticipate approx. € 650m peak sales next decade.

Laura Roba
  • Laura Roba

UCB - Green light for BIMZELX® in hidradenitis suppurativa in Europe

BIMZELX® has been granted marketing authorization in EU for the treatment of active moderate to severe hidradenitis suppurativa (HS) in adults. This approval follows positive CHMP opinion issued in March 2024.We model HS as the 2nd biggest indication for BIMZELX®, with close to EUR1bn in peak sales, after plaque psoriasis, with the EU making up about 25% of peak sales.We have a combined 85% LoA for the USA, EU, & JPN in our model and upon approval in all said geographies our TP moves up EUR 1.8 ...

Michiel Declercq ... (+3)
  • Michiel Declercq
  • Thibault Leneeuw
  • Thomas Vranken
Hilde Van Boxstael ... (+7)
  • Hilde Van Boxstael
  • Jacob Mekhael
  • Kristof Samoy
  • Michiel Declercq
  • Thomas Couvreur
  • Thomas Vranken
  • Wim Lewi
Thomas Vranken
  • Thomas Vranken

UCB Bimzelx launch tracker

Our Bimzelx launch tracker tool keeps an eye on the ongoing commercialization of Bimzelx in the US by looking at total prescriptions (TRx). Our latest figure for week 20 points to 886 TRx, up 42% versus last week's result affected by incomplete 3rd-party reporting, and up 19% on a 4-week rolling basis. Altogether, we see a smooth ramp-up for Bimzelx in its first months since launch.

Thomas Vranken
  • Thomas Vranken

UCB Bimzelx launch tracker

Our Bimzelx launch tracker tool keeps an eye on the ongoing commercialization of Bimzelx in the US by looking at total prescriptions (TRx). Our latest figure for week 19 was still affected by incomplete 3rd-party reporting but points to 623 TRx, up 11% versus last week's result and up 13% on a 4-week rolling basis. Altogether, we see a smooth ramp-up for Bimzelx in its first months since launch.

Guy Sips ... (+6)
  • Guy Sips
  • Hilde Van Boxstael
  • Lynn Hautekeete
  • Thomas Couvreur
  • Thomas Vranken
  • Wim Lewi
Guy Sips ... (+11)
  • Guy Sips
  • Jacob Mekhael
  • Kristof Samoy
  • Lynn Hautekeete
  • Michiel Declercq
  • Sharad Kumar S.P
  • Thibault Leneeuw
  • Thomas Couvreur
  • Thomas Vranken
  • Wim Hoste
  • Wim Lewi

Dynamic Top Pick List Update April 2024: Adding TINC

We continue our KBC Securities Dynamic Top Pick List with a 50/50 cyclical/defensive selection, but with a focus on value stocks that have been left behind. Defensive segment like holdings are overweight. However, in the Benelux we have a selection of cyclical industrials at cheap valuations that have often underperformed the market. We favour Benelux value stocks as even a mild recession typically hits growth stocks proportionally harder. We notice that some stocks have been hit hard by minor s...

Lynn Hautekeete ... (+2)
  • Lynn Hautekeete
  • Wim Lewi

Real Asset Conference Soundbites 19-20 March 2024

This note gathers feedback from the group meetings and the break-out sessions. In total 23 companies presented in group meetings and/or break-out sessions. More than 100 guests found their way to the venue and some more followed virtual meetings. Physical attendance is clearly on the rise after the COVID disruption. Investing remains a people's business. The 4 break-out sessions made for informative additions to the C-level meetings and a nice platform for discussion. Tuesday morning concentrate...

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