reports
- Richard Williamson
Tinexta - Weak Q324 but valuation appears too pessimistic
Tinexta’s weak Q324 results from its Cyber Security (CS) and Business Innovation (BI) divisions have prompted management to downgrade financial guidance for FY24 for the second time this year. We also take a more cautious stance on expected growth in FY25 and FY26. The c 60% decline in the share price in 2024, versus cumulative underlying downgrades of 16% to FY24e adjusted EBITDA, reflects investor concerns about two of Tinexta’s most significant acquisitions in recent years, the CS division an...
- Richard Williamson
Tinexta - Growth affected by temporary issues
Tinexta’s H124 results highlighted a weaker revenue profile in Q2 than Q1, mainly due to what management believes are temporary effects, as well as the high level of seasonality in some of the individual businesses. The temporary effects include: 1) a slight delay intra-year to expected new revenues, with management reiterating its underlying growth expectations for the year; and 2) deferred growth from ABF Group by six months due to the political changes in France. The latter leads to a reducti...
- Richard Williamson
Tinexta - Typical seasonality in Q124
Tinexta’s Q124 results showed good progress in the two divisions that typically demonstrate more consistent (through the year) growth, Cyber Security and Digital Trust, which management expects to deliver higher growth over the next few years. Business Innovation demonstrated its typical seasonality and management therefore remains confident about the outlook for the year.
- Richard Williamson
Tinexta - Strongest year since FY18
Tinexta enjoyed its strongest year for underlying profit growth in FY23 since FY18 which, given the recent challenging macro environment, is testimony to the changes in its business portfolio. Management has a consistent strategy of strengthening its market leadership, greater coordination between and integration of its divisions, M&A and expanding geographic coverage. Management’s new guidance suggests an even better year for underlying profit in FY24 and high-teens growth over the next three y...
- Richard Williamson
Tinexta - Business Innovation expansion in France
The announcement of the binding and irrevocable offer to gradually acquire the whole of ABF Group (ABF) is consistent with Tinexta’s strategy of internationalising its core businesses, in this case Business Innovation (BI), which is Tinexta’s second fastest growing (by revenue) and most profitable division, according to management guidance. The acquisition is expected to be accretive to Tinexta’s overall growth and profitability, with an expectation that ABF’s future ...
- Richard Williamson
Tinexta - Confirming FY23 guidance
Tinexta’s Q323 results showed continued strong underlying revenue and profit growth in what is typically a relatively small quarter from a revenue and profit perspective due to the inherent seasonality of its Cyber Security (CS) and Business Innovation (BI) divisions. Management’s reiteration of its previous financial guidance, albeit with different growth drivers than originally anticipated, is reassuring given the dependence of the full year results on the performance of the current, final qua...
- Richard Williamson
Tinexta - Mixed performance in Q223
Tinexta’s revenue and adjusted EBITDA year-on-year growth slowed a little in Q223 after a strong start to the year, but there was improving momentum in revenue and profitability from the two divisions that are forecast to generate the fastest growth in FY23. Of most significance was the acceleration by the Cyber Security (CS) division, which appears to have turned a corner since the start of the year following relatively disappointing growth post the acquisitions. The low net debt position leave...
- Richard Williamson
Tinexta - Cyber Security rebound in Q123
Tinexta’s Q123 results reflect trends that are consistent with prior years for the Digital Trust (DT) and Business Innovation (BI) divisions, coupled with a reassuring boost from a rebound in growth by Cyber Security (CS). The conservative balance sheet with an almost net cash position at the end of Q123 should enable Tinexta to undertake further M&A, which could provide scope for upgrades to profit estimates. We increase our DCF-based valuation to €30.4/share (€29.5 previously).
- Richard Williamson
Tinexta - Management anticipates stronger growth in FY23
Tinexta’s FY22 results demonstrated strong growth but were just shy of our expectations, mainly due to lower growth than expected from the Cyber Security (CS) division. Management’s new guidance suggests greater profit growth in FY23 than was delivered in FY22, before any contributions from recently announced and likely further mergers and acquisitions (M&A) are considered. The growth plan continues to focus on strengthening Tinexta’s position in its reference markets, M&A, internationalisation ...
- Richard Williamson
Tinexta - Management confident of rebound in Q422
Tinexta’s Q322 results highlighted the consistent strong growth of Digital Trust (DT) and contributions from M&A (seven acquisitions), offset by the typical lower seasonal contribution from its other divisions, which management believes were accentuated by the phasing of demand for certain products and services. Despite the more challenging macroeconomic backdrop, management re-iterated its FY22 guidance. This will require a greater profit contribution by Q4 than is typical, which management bel...
- Richard Williamson
Tinexta - Strength across the board
Tinexta’s interim results were strong due to a combination of underlying growth and contributions from M&A. The completion of the disposal of its lowest-growth division, Credit Information and Management (CIM), leaves Tinexta with a significantly improved financial position, and therefore well placed to take account of recent weakness in equity markets to undertake further M&A. The reiteration of underlying guidance for FY22, despite the disposal of lower-growth CIM, indicates a little more caut...
- Richard Williamson
Tinexta - Rebalancing toward higher growth
Tinexta’s proposal sale of its Credit Information & Management (CIM) division is significant from a financial and strategic perspective. With respect to the former, the remaining group should demonstrate higher aggregate pro forma revenue and profit growth and it will have significantly improved financial fire power to pursue further M&A in the higher-growth business units. Strategically, it removes a business that has low exposure to the thematic growth driver of a digitising economy, limited o...
- Richard Williamson
Tinexta - Encouraging start to FY22
Tinexta reported a good start to the year with continued strong organic revenue growth in Q122. This was further boosted by first-time contributions from acquisitions completed through FY21 and into FY22, which were also helpful to the total margin. Management re-iterated its financial guidance for FY22 while recognising the greater macroeconomic and inflationary pressures than when the guidance was made earlier in the year. The recent share price weakness means the stock is trading at a substan...
- Richard Williamson
Tinexta - Incorporating management’s FY22–24 guidance
Tinexta delivered FY21 results that were in line with our expectations, while undertaking a higher-than-average level of M&A as it sought to develop further the services it provides to customers and grow its international presence. Management’s new three-year (FY22–24) business plan points to attractive growth for revenue (low double digit) and adjusted EBITDA (mid-double digit) from a combination of organic growth, further M&A and cost efficiencies. Our estimate for adjusted EBITDA in FY22 is b...
- Richard Williamson
Tinexta - Guiding to mid double-digit profit growth to FY24
Tinexta’s FY21 headline results for revenue and adjusted EBITDA were in line with our expectations. The new three-year business plan is based on continued organic growth due to leadership in its reference markets (which are mainly experiencing structural growth), further domestic and international M&A and improved operating and cost efficiencies. Management is guiding for a mid-double-digit CAGR for adjusted EBITDA to FY24. Ahead of the publication of full financial results, our provisional new ...
Increased risk weighs on TINEXTA, penalising its rating down to Sligh...
The independent financial analyst theScreener just lowered the general evaluation of TINEXTA (IT), active in the Software industry. As regards its fundamental valuation, the title still shows 1 out of 4 possible stars. Its market behaviour, however, has slightly deteriorated and will be qualified as risky moving forward. theScreener considers that these new qualifications justify an overall rating downgrade to Slightly Negative. As of the analysis date January 14, 2022, the closing price was EUR...
- Richard Williamson
Tinexta - ‘No interest’ in press-speculated deal
Tinexta has stated it has ‘no interest in the deal’ that was subject to press speculation on 4 January 2022, namely the claimed negotiations to combine with Prelios, a private-equity owned company. Tinexta’s recent M&A strategy has focused on investing in new industries, with an expected strong growth profile (such as the acquisitions of Cyber Security and CertEurope in France), or the formation of new ventures (with no new capital investment by Tinexta) with industry participants that managemen...
- Richard Williamson
Tinexta - ‘No interest’ in press-speculated deal
Tinexta has stated it has ‘no interest in the deal’ that was subject to press speculation on 4 January 2022, namely the claimed negotiations to combine with Prelios, a private-equity owned company. Tinexta’s recent M&A strategy has focused on investing in new industries, with an expected strong growth profile (such as the acquisitions of Cyber Security and CertEurope in France), or the formation of new ventures (with no new capital investment by Tinexta) with industry participants that managemen...
- Richard Williamson
Tinexta - Management confident of meeting FY21 guidance
Tinexta’s Q321 results indicated underlying improved momentum in FY21 when we account for the tough comparative provided by Q320 and the inherent seasonality of some of the businesses. Ahead of the financially important Q4 trading period, management is confident of meeting its FY21 guidance. Following the recent external investment in Tinexta’s Digital Trust (DT) business unit, we believe more M&A is likely in the near-term, which has historically been positive for growth prospects. Our underlyi...
- Richard Williamson
Tinexta - Management confident of meeting FY21 guidance
Tinexta’s Q321 results indicated underlying improved momentum in FY21 when we account for the tough comparative provided by Q320 and the inherent seasonality of some of the businesses. Ahead of the financially important Q4 trading period, management is confident of meeting its FY21 guidance. Following the recent external investment in Tinexta’s Digital Trust (DT) business unit, we believe more M&A is likely in the near-term, which has historically been positive for growth prospects. Our underlyi...
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