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ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Martin Mauseth
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen

Now is when the market turns

Short-term estimates down. ABGSC +66% vs. consensus '25e EBITDA. BUY, TP NOK 345 (344).

ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen

Q2 as expected, weak guiding for Q3

Q2 EBITDA of USD 340m (-3% vs. ABGSCe, +5% vs. cons). Underlying Q3e guidance below expectations, note recent drop in rates. Share price down 1-3% relative to peers.

ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen

More gains in Q2

Q2'24e up on vessel sales gain. ABGSC +69% vs. cons. '25e EBITDA. BUY, TP NOK 349 (335).

ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen

Opaque Q1 results, but better than we expected

Q1 EBITDA of USD 339m (-6% vs. ABGSCe, +5% vs. cons). Underlying Q2e guidance below expectations. Neutral share price today.

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

New All-Time Highs Validates Our Bullish Outlook We continue to view the latest pullback to the 100-day MA on the S&P 500 as healthy and normal within the ongoing bull market, and our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. Throughout the last week of April, we discussed the possibility that further downside was limited (4/23/24 Compass) and the mounting evidence that led us to believe the lows were likely in for this pullback (4/30/24 Compass). Market dynamics remain health...

ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen

Fireworks expected, but after the summer

Q1'24e reiterated, Q2e down. ABGSC +81% vs. cons. '25e EBITDA. BUY, TP NOK 335 (330)

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vital Signs: Actionable charts

In this product we rank the most positive and negative domestic stocks, filter the symbols by market-cap and trading volume, and then divide the companies into sectors and groups. We then manually look through charts leadership/changes, bottoms-up/top-down ideas, short-term patterns that may have long-term significance, etc. We believe you will find this product valuable as significant price and relative moves begin in the daily charts.

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

In last week's Compass (Feb. 22) we discussed our belief that a pullback has begun, and signs continue to point to more downside ahead on the broad market indexes with three failed attempts to reclaim $190 on the Russell 2000 (IWM) and $297 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) over the last four trading days. These remain important lines in the sand moving forward. S&P 500. Last week we noted we were watching 3940-3990 for signs of support on the S&P 500, citing a significant confluence of support there, in...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Treasury Yields Reversing Higher Our outlook remains neutral and we continue to expect the 4165-4200 level to cap upside on the S&P 500. With that said, there has yet to be any meaningful deterioration, and a move up to test the August 2022 highs in the 4300-4325 range is not out of the question. Either way, we continue to preach caution and believe that upside is limited on the market indexes. Treasury yields are starting to reverse above multi-month downtrends, and we are monitoring for simil...

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