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ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Martin Mauseth
  • Petter Haugen
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Martin Mauseth
  • Petter Haugen

Q4 in line; Q1 guidance below cons, while in-line with peers

Q4 EBITDA of USD 213m (3% vs. cons, 3% vs. ABGSCe); Q1e guidance implies EBITDA of USD 173m, 29% below (not updated) cons; Share price down 1-3% relative to peers.

ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Martin Mauseth
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Martin Mauseth
  • Petter Haugen
Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion Short Shots: Technically Vulnerable Stocks

Short Shots is a collection of technically vulnerable charts culled from the Negative Inflecting and Toppy columns within our Weekly Compass report or from various technical screening processes. The charts contained in this report have developed concerning technical patterns that suggest further price deterioration is likely. For these reasons Short Shots can also be a great source of ideas for investors interested in short-selling candidates.

ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Martin Mauseth
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen

ABGSC Shipping Daily 28 November

Mixed tanker and dry bulk markets, LPG down, Shipping peer group trades at P/NAV 0.71x, Tanker spot rates down, seasonality not working, risk of Red Sea reopening, Dry bulk fundamentals remain solid, while Chinese steel demand also remains a worry, FRO Q3 review: No seasonal upswing cuts estimates,

ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Martin Mauseth
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Martin Mauseth
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen

Weak Q4 guidance, cash-build from refinancing

Q3 EBITDA of USD 229m (-4% vs. cons, 10% vs. ABGSCe). Q4e guidance implies EBITDA of USD 195m. Share price down 1-2% relative to peers.

ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Martin Mauseth
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion Short Shots: Technically Vulnerable Stocks

Short Shots is a collection of technically vulnerable charts culled from the Negative Inflecting and Toppy columns within our Weekly Compass report or from various technical screening processes. The charts contained in this report have developed concerning technical patterns that suggest further price deterioration is likely. For these reasons Short Shots can also be a great source of ideas for investors interested in short-selling candidates.

ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Martin Mauseth
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen

Now is when the market turns

Short-term estimates down. ABGSC +66% vs. consensus '25e EBITDA. BUY, TP NOK 345 (344).

ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen

Q2 as expected, weak guiding for Q3

Q2 EBITDA of USD 340m (-3% vs. ABGSCe, +5% vs. cons). Underlying Q3e guidance below expectations, note recent drop in rates. Share price down 1-3% relative to peers.

ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen

More gains in Q2

Q2'24e up on vessel sales gain. ABGSC +69% vs. cons. '25e EBITDA. BUY, TP NOK 349 (335).

ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen

Opaque Q1 results, but better than we expected

Q1 EBITDA of USD 339m (-6% vs. ABGSCe, +5% vs. cons). Underlying Q2e guidance below expectations. Neutral share price today.

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